GunnerBill

Worth adding 3rd down % to those numbers. That is where the big meaningful difference is. Leslie got opponents off the field on 3rd down. McDermott less so and Babich is bottom 4 or 5 in the league at it. The other interesting thing in those numbers above is how consistent the Bills are at taking the ball away. Between 17 and 19 INTs and between 10 and 11 fumble recoveries. We are slightly down on INTs this year but slightly up on fumble recoveries. That should be slightly concerning too because while I have seen the Bills raking at balls this year as a point of emphasis more than I can ever remember and that plays a part in forcing fumbles there is still an element of luck with recoveries and the bounce of the ball. Essentially where they are perfoming best in turnovers is where the level of randomness is highest.

Yea they'd shut you down pretty quick I reckon even though you are not trying to monetise it.

He probably doesn't play the following week. For Josh it comes down to don't lay an egg vs the Jets. Play better than last week, don't turn it over, win the game. That is probably enough.

I remember hating on that 2022 Commanders draft at the time. An overdrafted slot receiver in the 1st. An overdrafted 1T in the 2nd and then an overdrafted running back in the 3rd. In fairness Brian Robinson Jnr has been steady for them but is a low impact, volume rusher.

Which makes zero difference to him being cash poor. He could borrow against the value of an asset... sure. But he'd have to do that because he doesn't have the cash to just write that cheque otherwise.

Nah. He is cash poor.

This was entirely predictable. It is the result of having a cash poor owner by the standards of the modern NFL. It happened to Palmer, it happened to Dalton, no idea why people thought it wouldn't happen to Burrow just because he was the best of those three. They don't pay people to stay and they don't restructure contracts each year to create space to strengthen a roster in a window. It is who the Bengals are.

Milano only played 4 games last year too. It is not the impact of Jones or Milano that is different. I just think teams have a year of film on Bernard, know what he does well and know how to explot his weaknesses. We should also just slow the roll a little bit. He hasn't played as well in 2024 as he did in 2023. But he hasn't been a liability or anything. If I was going to start a list of positions where the Bills could stand to upgrade in priority order MLB would be pretty far down it. Bernard is fine. I think last year he flashed potential that we might have thought he was better than fine and he has just regressed to the mean a bit.

Confess I've only seen a bit of him but my worry is he has the Tremaine Edmunds weakness - he has never seen a play action or a misdirection he didn't want to bite on.

Probably only 5 now in the first 4. Two 2nds and one in every other round and then two 5th round comps (Gabe's was originally projected a 4th but the lack of playing time - injury - means the projections have been adjusted and most expect us only to get a 5th for him now).

100% this.

Of my time as a fan (which is 2002, so a couple of years into the drought) the DC is between Schwartz and Frazier. It's Schwartz single year of elite vs 6 years of consistent high performance under Leslie. As for OC trickier. Daboll and Brady have produced really consistent offenses with Josh. I'd give a shout for Greg Roman too. 13th in yards and 11th in points with Tyrod Taylor at Quarterback was a fair coaching effort.

I didn't on the TV broadcast either, but on the all22 he was dominant inside against the NE run game. Took on two blockers and forced the back to bounce multiple times.

The Jets could be in tank mode but if they were the owner would be taking decisions to sit guys. I'm not sure they are at that point so they are not tanking. New England is trying to build some momentum into the offseason. They will definitely be trying.

To be fair Oliver has been excellent the past two games. I'm hoping he is rounding into form after a below par year. The others on your list remain of some level of concern.

It's this. It means someone whose primary roles are to set the edge and rush the passer from the outside. It's a way of distinguishing those players from other outside linebackers who play a more traditional off the ball role such as the one Milano or Williams plays for the Bills. It's a fair point on the capitalisation. I'm not sure why when it arose initially it was capped. It is probably because all other position codes are capped - DE, DT, WR etc... but as the OP points out those are all acronyms of sorts. So some might just see it as a consistency thing.... but I do increasingly see it uncapped as well.

He has not played as well as last year. That is without doubt.

I think they will beat the Broncos. Anything after that is gonna be a coin flip. They will need a bit of luck to go their way.

I don't think Douglas is particularly good either so that comparison is meh to me. I agree he hasn't been very good this year. I don't need the history lesson on how we got here with Elam. I'm well aware. The only thing I'd edit is in that 2023 training camp Benford flat beat him out. Fair and square. Because he is better than him. I was on the "let Elam play the season out" train after Detroit - where I thought he played okay - but he was a disaster against the Pats. And it was all the same old failings. The things that were flaws in college: drop depth in zone, transitions and penalty waiting to happen at the top of the route. It's 3 years. If the light truly had "gone on" at some point then I don't think those things are all still happening. I think they just blew the pick.

Gordon was my idea for us there and I said so at the time. I think he is a classic zone corner and while yea, picking him in round 1 would probably have also been a reach, at least he can play in our scheme and be an above average starter. The Bears scheme is very similar and he has been a good starting corner for them, though not a stud as you say.

For the season, sure. But that is largely driven by some very high grades in mop up duty in some of the early games - Jacksonville in particular. He graded out VERY poorly this week - 54.5 after grading out okay in Detroit. Which exactly reflects the eye test to me. He played okay vs the Lions but was really bad against the Pats. Interestingly the part of his game grading out most strongly per PFF is his tackling - which was regarded his weakness coming into the league. It's his coverage where the struggles have come. Not it doesn't. In the three games he has started - Miami home, Detroit, New England the data says he has been targeted 18 times in coverage, has given up 14 completions (77% when I went to school) for 183 yards at over 13 yards a pop, a touchdown and a passer rating of 119.6. If that is the data saying he is good I'd hate to see what it looked like if it was saying he is bad.

Yep. I do. I suppose it depends how you value the contibution of 4 sacks and 5 tackles for loss. And sure, he has had some pressures too - and in some games he has looked decent. But there have been a lot more where he has been quiet as hell.

They were attacking intermediate zones. All blitzing against a vet QB like Stafford does is open up those zones. They should have gone to way more 3 man rush, push the safeties up 5 yards and flood the intermediate area of the field. If he wants to throw over the top of you fine - Kupp and Nacua aren't burners. But they will eat if you leave the middle of your defense exposed.

The final TD wasn't an incredible play. The first catch from Nacua, yes, I'll give you they did get heat on Stafford and he made a great throw and Nacua made a great catch. But the final one was a routine blitz beater and the 2nd down plays were the same. See the pressure, throw to the hole. The 3rd blitz on 3rd down isn't irrelvant - it was a 3rd down given up on a blitz but can understand why the penalty makes it drop out statistically. I honestly challenge anyone to watch that 2nd half back and say "blitzing more was the answer." To me it was the absolute worst thing they could have done.

So I think you can throw out 2017. That was Rex's players running their scheme. From 2018 to 2022 - i.e. the Frazier years, they were consistently excellent. When in a five year spell your best year is first and your one year outside the top 10 you are 13th that is consistently excellent. Last year it dipped. That's fair, but was still fine, middle of the pack. This year it has been horrid. And % wise it is a big slide. from 2020 being the "worst" of 39.8 to be almost 5 percentage points worse..... this is the first year 3rd down defense has legitimately been a "problem" for the Bills under this regime. And it has been all year. We were tracking above 40% even before the past three weeks.