GunnerBill

Beane has one of the lowest bust rates among all GMs in his time here, and that probably justifies him being looked at as a top 10 GM. Though he has advantages some others don't have: a Head Coach he is in complete lock step with and schematic consistency. While the Frazier defense and the McDermott year and the Babich defense are not just exact replicas of one another the fundamental defensive scheme is unchanged. There has been a little more turnover on offense (mainly offensive line we have flip flopped a few times on what we are looking for in our blocking scheme) but not a ton. Those help you avoid busts because you are not drafting player X to play in one scheme and by his second year finding him in another one. But he misses very rarely and he finds plenty of above average starters too. I don't think it is just that the Bills are "more committed to their draft picks." If I look at the Bills drafted players who are currently starters on this team (excluding rookies): Allen, Cook, Kincaid, Dawkins, Brown, Torrence, Shakir, Rousseau, Epenesa, Oliver, Johnson, Bernard, Milano, Benford, Hamlin I think only Hamlin and possible Epenesa are guys who wouldn't start for the majority of NFL teams. The knock, you are right, is he hasn't found enough elite talent. Indeed this regime has only had three first team all pros in their eight seasons: Tre White (2019), Jordan Poyer (2021) and Matt Milano (2022). All three of them were acquired by McDermott in the offseason he ran personnel. Beane has two second team all pros: Josh Allen (2020) and Taron Johnson (2023) who I think we would all agree are his two best draft selections and they are the only two guys we have that I think are elite at their positions and would start not just for most teams but like 30 of 32. And while the defence of him in that regard is "ah he always drafts at the end of rounds, it's harder", which is true, he has had seven goes at it now. You need to start showing more for that around your Quarterback than an elite slot corner. I don't think this is a personnel regime making big blunders year after year that need covering up by Josh Allen. That isn't, in my view, a fair characterisation. I think relative to the rest of the league the Bills do a pretty good job and most of the metrics for measuring these things support that. But they are not beyond legitimate questioning either Beane and his staff. They have not been perfect and there are things they need to do better. Finding more elite difference makers and not wasting cap $$s year after year on defensive tackles in FA only to have pull guys off the street in November every season to bolster the room are the top two on my bingo card but there are others too.

He definitely has the range and the phsicaly profile to suggest he should be able to play free safety but at the moment I don't think he is close to there mentally. Still way too many mistakes.

Stick a fork in the Duck. It's cooked.

It doesn't have to be a DL it can be a secondary player who teams are actively scared to throw at. I just don't think we have anyone in that tier right now.

I hate blitzing. It sucks. That was a darn stupid blitz on 4th and 13. Just play the sticks.

I think Groot and Ed are the two guys who have that level of talent. It just hasn't translated to consistently doing it. They have been game wreckers at times but it's that guy the opposition knows beforehand every week "right we gotta keep X quiet to win." I think what @Dan says about Oliver above applies equally to Groot. For us to make it through the playoffs and win the Superbowl we are going to need one of them to play out of their minds for 3 or 4 games. I don't think he was at their level talent wise but remember the year Baltimore won it Paul Kruger the pass rusher with long hair played incredible in the post season. Sacking Quarterbacks, forcing fumbles, he just turned into a monster for like 4 weeks. We need something like that. Kruger signed a big FA deal with Cleveland after the season and was never heard of again 🤣.

Oh I completely know there are things I don't know, especially when it comes to evaluating draft prospects. I only have the bits of film I can get my hands on and the time I have to go through it. I do have a small group of people I can message who might give me a little bit of intel but I don't overuse that, as you say - busy folks spread thin - they don't need to bombarded by questions from amateurs. I had a third on Stevenson in 23. I had a third on Taylor as well this past year. He was the highest graded player left on my board at the end of the draft.

Yea they need a player who dictates on defense. They haven't had one since Tre did the first injury. When he was in his prime the Bills could dictate where they wanted the ball to go because teams didn't want to test White often even when he was one on one. We don't have anyone in the secondary or up front who affects gameplans like that these days.

I have not ignored my opinion about Josh being wrong. Not ever. It is fully accepted. As for Daboll.... I didn't hail him as a genius. I said he was a good offensive coordinator here. He was. So is Brady. Dorsey wasn't horrible, he started quite promisingly. But it went downhill fast.

Thanks. Happy New Year. I think the qay they approached the depth at OL this year. They kept all the potential high ceilings and let the safe, solid, vets go. Might have been cap driven but it was noteworthy I think given previously they have valued that experienced depth.

Ooo good point.

Yea he is definitely a possible. I have got the possible elevations down to WR, TE, S. Two from those three.

Oh I think they do. The last time they tied it under Daboll in 2021 they tried a pass in the endzone to Taiwan Jones. You don't do that if you are not record chasing. Was about the first thing Josh mentioned in his presser after Sunday. I all but guarantee they will give a red zone target to someone who hasn't scored a TD this year on Sunday.

I mean it is both of those. There is more randomness than most fans like to admit. But you are absolutely right that the way to reduce the variance is to have as many elite difference makers as possible and the Bills haven't had enough of them around Allen. Some of that is on their talent evaluation and acquisition and on Beane and to an extent McDermott, some of it is bad luck. Lost their only elite defensive player (Tre White) in 2021 before the playoffs. Brought Von Miller in to be that difference maker in 2022 and lost him before the playoffs that year too. I do think their roster building plan has over emphasised depth and competition at the expense of difference makers though. I think they are trying to pivot on that but we will need to see this roster re-set go into years 2 and 3 to know whether it is successful.

If we made the Superbowl the Eagles are the team I'd least like to see waiting. They have arguably the best pair of trenches OL and DL in the entire league. I don't think we's be "controlling the line of scrimmage" against them.

Of course this is Josh Allen's offense. There is no disputing that. But of the three OCs they have had supporting him in that endevour there is zero point zero per cent doubt that Dorsey was the least able. To keep taking shots at the other two while defending Dorsey's modern day iteration of the chuck and duck is baffling. He is likely about to be fired from his second OC job in just over a year within the next fortnight. I am not worried about Brady getting a Head Coach job. It is going to happen at some point. Just an inevitability. I don't think there is an internal candidate ready to jump in this time, so they'll have to hire from outside. My only worry would be them picking the wrong guy again. Like they did with Dorsey.

Of course they are. Franchise QB always matters more than anything else. That isn't revelationary. It's just fact. But that doesn't get you to where you think it does on coaching.

Brady and Dorsey are not interchangeable. That is laughabe. But I know you will defend your canes guy. It's understandable. But it is not objective.

I don't think that is true of the last 5 years. It is about right this year.

Following this math, it is worth about 2 wins for your QB to be in group 1 rather than group 2. 100/17 means each game is worth 5.8%. 11% win difference between the two groups equates to about two games. Allen was in the 60s last year and the Bills won 11 games. He is in the 70s this year we have won 13. So it sorta checks out. Still, not a lover of QBR and don't know that the analysis proves anything. But the difference between your QB having a good year and a great year being about 2 wins doesn't feel a wild conclusion.

I like the Gilliam idea actually. Fake a screen out one side to Cook then dump off the other way to Reggie.

You need to call White up to do that. The emergency QB rules require both the other two to be injured. And I think the spots are needed in other places. There isn't enough difference for me between Trubisky and White to protect Trubisky.

Nope.

Total Football was a complete re-imagining of the way the game was played. It was true innovation. I'm a Joe Brady fan. I supported the hire, I said repeatedly I think he has a smart offensive mind and that I was optimistic about a full season of him running the offense. But he hasn't re-imagine offensive football. He hasn't changed the way that teams play. He's just done a really good job of putting players in positions to make plays and unlike Dorsey hasn't tried to force a system that the players can't execute upon them. He uses guys according to their skills and doesn't force square pegs into round holes. I give him a ton of credit. Comparing him to Rinus Michels is hyperbolic nonsense though.

Add to this to put 2 practice squaders UP for the game that means you need to declare seven guys inactive. Even the guys that sat last week went into Sunday with "questionable" designations so as of right now there is no reason to assume anyone is definitely OUT. Let's work on everyone being healthy. How do you deal with the seven inactives to allow you to have 2 PS guys up and all your backups up if you want them to play most of the game? My guess is something like: Cooper (vet receiver, important to opening the outside up for the rest of the offense need him for the playoffs) Kincaid (you will have Morris and Knox and can use Gilliam / extra lineman) Von Miller (had two decent games back to back, if it was really all about keeping him fresh for the playoffs why risk him in a meaningless game) Jones (you have six DTs on the active roster, feels like a chance to give one of your starters a night off and the Bills usually rest the more veteran guy first in such situations) Milano (had his best game but again, wrapping a vet in cotton wool) Douglas (been struggling a bit with the knee and again I always err on the side of the Bills resting the older guy first when between two at a spot based on their history) Rapp (if they want to get Hyde up then this is the route to do it potentially, Rapp is their best safety in a weak room) Critically as well none of those guys play special teams. That gives you 46 active roster guys: 2x QB; 1x FB; 3x RB; 2x TE; 4x WR; 9x OL; 4x DE; 5x DT; 5x LB; 5x CB; 3x S Which means your likely call ups are a 5th receiver and a 4th safety with an outside chance of a 3rd tight end. So let's say they go Virgil (who could also rest Codrington on returns) and either Cine or Hyde. I think then you are looking at pulling Allen, Cook, Shakir, Dawkins, Brown, McGovern, Oliver, Rousseau, Bernard and Benford after max 1 or 2 series. So the lineup looks something like: Trubisky, Davis, Knox, Coleman, Hollins, Samuel, Grable, Edwards, Anderson, Torrence, Van Demark Epensea, Carter, Phillips, Smoot, Andreesen, Williams, Lewis, Ingram, Elam, Hamlin, Bishop Then later (mid 3rd Qrtr maybe) you probably want to pull one of your guards, Coleman, Knox, Epenesa and Hamlin and get Virgil, Morris, Solomon and Hyde / Cine on the field. That is broadly how I would expect them to play it based on their general approach to these things and the challenge of managing the roster.