GunnerBill

J.A.G. Seven teams in four seasons.

Ordinarily I'd sit him but if Bernard is down I'd probaly have Matt up and let him play a series or two.

They are 11th in points. 20th in yards. The reason I like 3rd down as a true signifier of the strength or otherwise of a defense is that yards and points can be influenced by field position which is not only on defense it can be indicative of O and ST too. 3rd down is how often does your D make a play when it needs to. You don't find good defenses with bad 3rd down numbers. This is not a good defense. It isn't the 31st best defense. I'm not saying that. But the fact it is 31st on 3rd down tells you it isn't a good defense. It's bottom half of the NFL.

Dion is a pro bowler again. He gets some love.

I'd vote for Brown over Lane Johnson. I mean I don't think Johnson is a ludicrous pick or anything but if I was voting my tackles would be: Left tackles: 1st Jordan Mailata; 2nd Tristan Wirfs Right tackles: 1st Penei Sewell; 2nd Spencer Brown. Brown might not get in. He doesn't have the name value of Johnson. But I think he will get votes. The only other Bills I expect to get votes (other than Josh obviously who will be a 1st team all pro) are Benford and possibly Rousseau and I don't think either will get enough to get into the teams.

I am just not sold yet that he is ready for that. He has done some the last two games, agreed. But he really wasn't good against New England. I thought he'd been on a nice upward curve but Sunday was a step back. I really hope they make Rapp and Bishop work. I do not want them to have to spend another day 1/2 pick on a safety.

Yea the Bills got the Oline decisions spot on in the offseason. David Edwards has been very good and McGovern has been an upgrade on Morse at center.

I am a big Benford guy. I think he is excellent. He is PFF's 4th graded corner and 3rd outside corner because Cooper DeJean has been entirely a nickel. And yes, in 2024 he has played better than Sauce (though Sauce has still been better than some of the criticism he faces, his completion rate allowed when targeted is still elite). That said for me to say "yes, Christian Benford is an elite player" rather than "he has had an elite season." We have started to see teams try and stay away from him in coverage the second half of this season. That bears watching too because as I said before, when Tre was in his prime teams just didn't throw at his side of the field other than in the flat or when they were in desperation mode.

He was good last year, but has stepped it up another level this year. Second half of the year he has been our best player not name Josh Allen.

Yea for the fan voting section name value is huge. Dion does Cowherd and McAfee, hence he makes it. The four most deserving Bills after Josh this year are: Benford, Cook, Brown and Rousseau. I actually think Brown will get all pro votes. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he ended up a 2nd team all pro.

Good defenses are not 31st in the league on 3rd down giving up 44.4%

Arguing about past years is pretty pointless anyway. The Bills have had good defenses in past years that haven't got it done in the playoffs for a myriad of reasons. That isn't relevant to this year because, well, we don't have a good defense.

The Bills won't be messing with this oline in the summer. It has been the star of the team aside from Josh Allen in 2024 and all five guys are under contract for next season. They are running it back untouched IMO.

Milano was one of our best players on a Sunday for me. I was super impressed with him when I looked at all22. His best performance since the injury without any doubt.

Beane has one of the lowest bust rates among all GMs in his time here, and that probably justifies him being looked at as a top 10 GM. Though he has advantages some others don't have: a Head Coach he is in complete lock step with and schematic consistency. While the Frazier defense and the McDermott year and the Babich defense are not just exact replicas of one another the fundamental defensive scheme is unchanged. There has been a little more turnover on offense (mainly offensive line we have flip flopped a few times on what we are looking for in our blocking scheme) but not a ton. Those help you avoid busts because you are not drafting player X to play in one scheme and by his second year finding him in another one. But he misses very rarely and he finds plenty of above average starters too. I don't think it is just that the Bills are "more committed to their draft picks." If I look at the Bills drafted players who are currently starters on this team (excluding rookies): Allen, Cook, Kincaid, Dawkins, Brown, Torrence, Shakir, Rousseau, Epenesa, Oliver, Johnson, Bernard, Milano, Benford, Hamlin I think only Hamlin and possible Epenesa are guys who wouldn't start for the majority of NFL teams. The knock, you are right, is he hasn't found enough elite talent. Indeed this regime has only had three first team all pros in their eight seasons: Tre White (2019), Jordan Poyer (2021) and Matt Milano (2022). All three of them were acquired by McDermott in the offseason he ran personnel. Beane has two second team all pros: Josh Allen (2020) and Taron Johnson (2023) who I think we would all agree are his two best draft selections and they are the only two guys we have that I think are elite at their positions and would start not just for most teams but like 30 of 32. And while the defence of him in that regard is "ah he always drafts at the end of rounds, it's harder", which is true, he has had seven goes at it now. You need to start showing more for that around your Quarterback than an elite slot corner. I don't think this is a personnel regime making big blunders year after year that need covering up by Josh Allen. That isn't, in my view, a fair characterisation. I think relative to the rest of the league the Bills do a pretty good job and most of the metrics for measuring these things support that. But they are not beyond legitimate questioning either Beane and his staff. They have not been perfect and there are things they need to do better. Finding more elite difference makers and not wasting cap $$s year after year on defensive tackles in FA only to have pull guys off the street in November every season to bolster the room are the top two on my bingo card but there are others too.

He definitely has the range and the phsicaly profile to suggest he should be able to play free safety but at the moment I don't think he is close to there mentally. Still way too many mistakes.

Stick a fork in the Duck. It's cooked.

It doesn't have to be a DL it can be a secondary player who teams are actively scared to throw at. I just don't think we have anyone in that tier right now.

I hate blitzing. It sucks. That was a darn stupid blitz on 4th and 13. Just play the sticks.

I think Groot and Ed are the two guys who have that level of talent. It just hasn't translated to consistently doing it. They have been game wreckers at times but it's that guy the opposition knows beforehand every week "right we gotta keep X quiet to win." I think what @Dan says about Oliver above applies equally to Groot. For us to make it through the playoffs and win the Superbowl we are going to need one of them to play out of their minds for 3 or 4 games. I don't think he was at their level talent wise but remember the year Baltimore won it Paul Kruger the pass rusher with long hair played incredible in the post season. Sacking Quarterbacks, forcing fumbles, he just turned into a monster for like 4 weeks. We need something like that. Kruger signed a big FA deal with Cleveland after the season and was never heard of again 🤣.

Oh I completely know there are things I don't know, especially when it comes to evaluating draft prospects. I only have the bits of film I can get my hands on and the time I have to go through it. I do have a small group of people I can message who might give me a little bit of intel but I don't overuse that, as you say - busy folks spread thin - they don't need to bombarded by questions from amateurs. I had a third on Stevenson in 23. I had a third on Taylor as well this past year. He was the highest graded player left on my board at the end of the draft.

Yea they need a player who dictates on defense. They haven't had one since Tre did the first injury. When he was in his prime the Bills could dictate where they wanted the ball to go because teams didn't want to test White often even when he was one on one. We don't have anyone in the secondary or up front who affects gameplans like that these days.

I have not ignored my opinion about Josh being wrong. Not ever. It is fully accepted. As for Daboll.... I didn't hail him as a genius. I said he was a good offensive coordinator here. He was. So is Brady. Dorsey wasn't horrible, he started quite promisingly. But it went downhill fast.

Thanks. Happy New Year. I think the qay they approached the depth at OL this year. They kept all the potential high ceilings and let the safe, solid, vets go. Might have been cap driven but it was noteworthy I think given previously they have valued that experienced depth.

Ooo good point.