GunnerBill

They keep moving money around the deals. It isn't quite as straightforward as simple restructures as the OTC post explains. But they keep making sure their guys are getting cash in their pockets because that is what the players care about much more so than AAV once the deal is signed. OTC predicts 2027 for a new Josh Allen deal. I might go a year earlier.... 2026 is the sweet spot IMO.

I am not sugar coating it. I am just not yet ready to say he is done. Maybe he was disinterested. Maybe he was nicked up. He'd definitely fallen out with Josh. He might be done. Or he might rebound in different circumstances. Neither of those would surprise me.

See my reply to @HappyDays and the OTC link he provided. Josh is "making" top 3 or 4 money each year. AAV is AAV. It matters when you sign the deal and your agent can tweet out "best paid QB ever" etc. But year on year what matters is the money the Bills are actually paying him. While that money keeps being top 3 or 4 every year the less incentive there is for him to seek an extension. They are 8th and 9th in AAV. They are both top 3 in cash paid in 2024.

There is still money they could kick. They don't want to kick it. And the reasons why are pretty well explained in that article. They want to allow themselves flex to keep moving money around to keep the cash number Josh gets each year up there in value who will stop him hankering after a new deal with a higher overall AAV. Because while the AAV matters the day you sign the deal it doesn't matter after that. What matters is what you are getting cash terms year on year and I made this point earlier in the offseason when people started talking about needing to extend him. Josh may now be way down the list on AAV but he remains top 3 or 4 each year on cash based on the moves the Bills keep making with his deal.

I actually don't know the answer to that. In theory I can't see why you couldn't but there may be a rule against it.

Samuel. I reckon if he stays healthy he ends up around 1,000 maybe just short of it. I have something like: Samuel 925 Kincaid 850 Shakir 800 Coleman 650 (but leads us in touchdowns) Knox 400 Cook 350 That gets you to 3,975. Then you have you bits and pieces guys contributing another 300-500 between them.... running back 2, Morris, Hollins whoever else is a depth receiver.

At $13m my plan would be have him play on the option unless he balls out this year. I'm open to the Tremaine approach with him of let him play on the option then move on and take the comp pick.

I have seen nothing of Grable myself but as I said in my day 3 debrief one of my spies who was at the Shrine Bowl week said he stood out in practices. If he has and kind of decent showing in pre-season (and maybe even if he doesn't) he is going to be very hard to sneak onto the PS.

I largely agree. While I think Van Demark is very likely to make it I do think Grable has a chance to dislodge him. They are similar player in terms of athletic profile. Vandy showed last pre-season that is very good at LT, but couldn't really get it at right tackle. If Grable can do both I think there is a world where they decide to go with him and a vet (I'm thinking specifically Collins in this space tbh). Equally given Beane mentioned Clapp specifically when asked about center the other day I wonder if he has a better shot in the building than we think. I'd definitely like the final 9 to be your predicted 8 and Grable. But will be interesting to see how it plays out. If they are all healthy can Beane maybe swing one of his trade for a day 3 pick tricks?

I hope so. Ty is such a JAG. If I can save 350k on that spot it is a no brainer for me.

Stefon Diggs was an elite receiver. Whether he still is remains to be seen - that is fair - but he has six consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. Samuel's best year (which in fairness did come in a Joe Brady coordinated offense) was 851 yards. I would say that is super substantively lesser. Whether he is super substantively lesser than Stefon Diggs in 2024 we will see. But the Diggs we saw for at least 3 and a half years of his run in Buffalo? Yea. Samuel is a LOOOONG way short of that. I think Samuel could have a career year though. John Brown when forced into a #1 role by lack of alternatives had a thousand yard season for us. But he still wasn't close to what peak Stef Diggs was.

Yea he has. But they didn't kick the max they could. So there is still a bit of an opportunity to squeeze a bit more if we want to.

Well you know my views on Drake London he was a big reach by the Falcons and is another non-separator. But that wasn't really my point. My point was 4.6 you ain't going top 10. If Coleman had gone back to school, had a 1,000 yard season and then run a 4.53 he could have been a top 10 pick. But if he'd run a 4.61 he wouldn't have done. I didn't say he wasn't capable of running faster than 4.61. I always said his Combine time was not what he was capable of.

I am NOT consumed with his 40 time though. That isn't my knock. He doesn't separate. Speed. Route running. Nous. Combination thereof. He isn't a separator. And those guys rarely work out in the NFL and when they do it is invariably as big slots.

Sorry to be late to the party with my final roundup folks. I'm having my kitchen renovated and spent yesterday morning doing admin relating to that and then the afternoon biting my fingers off through the North London Derby (London is Red). I just ran out of steam in the evening. But here is my final summary of how it ended up looking for the Buffalo Bills and the rest of the league after three days of drafting in Detroit. The Bills picks... All seven of them.... yes the Bills made SEVEN picks on day 3 of the draft to add to the three that they made on day 2. I'll try and keep it brief on each one to make sure this is readable . The first was Ray Davis the running back out of Kentucky and we should begin with his age. He will turn 24 midway through his rookie season. He will be 28 by the time he finishes his rookie contract and in a league where running backs age out pretty fast he is likely a one contract player. I'll be honest I'd have rather they wait than go running back in round 4 but in terms of holes on the roster there was a gaping one behind James Cook. Davis reminds me a bit of Zack Moss in terms of style, short, but thick, compact back that likes to run through contact but he has better explosion and pop than Moss. I wouldn't call him a home run hitter as such but he definitely has a few gears he can get through. He had over 1,000 yards at 5.7 a tote in the SEC last year and he was the "best of the rest" for me after the top 5 backs - Brooks, Benson, Wright, Lloyd and Corum. He was RB6 at the top of that next tier. Like the player, don't love using round 4 for a running back. The second is probably my favourite pick of the entire draft for the Bills - Sedrick Van-Pran. He was a three year starter at center on a Georgia team that won two national titles in that period. I had a late 3rd round grade and if his arms were an inch longer he is easily a day 2 pick. Occasionally that lack of length means rushers just seem to get on him a bit fast, but even when they are he can fight his way back into a rep and come out on top. I think he will compete to start the year and if the Bills do go with the vets - McGovern in to center and Edwards at guard and it doesn't gel quickly then I would not be shocked if he found himself on the field early. This guy has a chance to be the Bills center for the next 7 or 8 seasons. The next one was the pick that flummoxed me a bit - Edefuan Ulofoshio (and not just because I can't pronounce it!) The Bills traded out of #144 for a 2025 4th rounder, then they took a linebacker at #160. This is a team that only plays with two linebackers and already has Milano, Bernard, Williams and Spector on the roster and added Nicholas Morrow to be vet insurance in free agency. I don't understand why a 6th linebacker there was a preference. I get that they like him for special teams but both Morrow and Spector are already good special teamers. Jamari Thrash was still on the board when they traded out and then Malik Washington was still on the board when they Ulofoshio. Do they really feel better about their receiver room than their linebacker depth? I dunno. Oddest pick of the draft IMO. Maybe it is in Beane's contract that he has to pick at least one linebacker every year? Eight picks later they took Javon Solomon the undersized edge rusher out of Troy. I'm not sure how many successful 6'1 edge rushers there are but despite lacking height Solomon has near 34 inch arms and he plays longer than his size. It's fair to question whether he would hold up in run support as a starting base end but this guy can rush the passer. He is explosive off the snap and he has a pretty wide array of moves. He led the entire FBS with 16 sacks in 2023 and as a 5th round flier he was absolutely worth the pick they spent here. As a rotational pass rush specialist I think he can be really effective. They then went for Tylan Grable the offensive tackle out of UCF in round 6. He is the definition of toolsy. Former skill position player converted to offensive line. Athletic, can move, has the size you look for. Played for Deion Sanders at Jacksonville State before transferring to UCF but a contact I converse with occasionally in the draft media was at the Shrine game practices this year and had Grable as one of his standouts. If he has a decent camp he has a shot at the roster. Then Daequan Hardy the corner out of Penn State came next. He is an undersized corner who probably takes over the "backup nickel and special teams" role that Siran Neal used to occupy. He is a scrappy guy in coverage who makes up for lacking size with his effort and he has both return experience and gunner experience to play on 4th down. Finally it was the Brit! Travis Clayton is obviously the best pick of the entire draft and will be the Bills starting guard for the next 15 years going to 15 pro bowls and being a 15 time first team all pro. People keep comparing him to Christian Wade because he played rugby. Wade was an international rugby player. He is a star in the Rugby Permier League. Travis played amateur rugby in the 8th tier of the sport's league system. To put that in perspective soccer is a much more popular and well organised sport at the semi-pro and amateur level and the standard is higher. I played in the 7th tier of English soccer. If I turned up to try out for the Bills they wouldn't be selling me as a former soccer star. I expect very little. But it's a nice story and I'm rooting for the kid. My overall take on the Bills draft? This was a draft for need. There is a legit argument that: a wide receiver, a safety, a DT and a second running back were the four biggest needs on the roster and they hit them with the first four picks. Take what they say about the board with a pinch of slat this year. This was a team that couldn't fill all its holes in free agency having to go after certain positions to re-stock. I like some of the players. Bishop, Van-Pran and Solomon in particular. Coleman and Davis I like some too although I have questions about the exact nature of the value and fit in those cases. But this is a class that will re-stock the roster and hopefully give them fewer big gaps to fill when they come to free agency and the draft next year. I don't know that it has made the roster a lot better than it was on Thursday morning but it has made it a bit deeper and hopefully they can stack a few more names onto the little core of guys that they got out of 2022 and 2023 to further drive this transition. The UDFAs I will confess I don't know a lot about many of them. I was glad to see a punter on the list. They have Haack and Martin on the roster but Haack sucks and Martin after a good 2022 struggled in 2023. If the rookie Jack Browning out of San Diego State can give himself a chance in that competition I'd like to see him come out on top. The two guys I do know about are two of my Shrine Game standouts - Frank Gore Jnr and David Ugwoegbu. Here is what I said about on here about them each on the back of that game in February: Frank Gore Jnr (#3, Running Back, West) who had 6 rushes for 87 yards and a touchdown. It is an obvious thing to say but he is so reminiscent of his dad in the way he plays. He isn't fast, he isn't big, but he has great vision, fantastic feet and he always seems to fall forwards. Gore Snr went in round 3 of the draft way back in 2005 but I suspect a player of his type would be much more like a day three pick now and that is where I expect Gore Jnr to end up. But I won't be betting against him making a team and making an impact in the pros. David Ogwoegbu (#92, EDGE, East) out of Houston (but who spent his first four years at Oklahoma) did turn his flashes into plays with two tackles for loss in the run game and the East team's only sack. He is a bit of a tweener for me in that he started his college career at linebacker, moved onto the line but isn't twitchy or bend enough to play as a true edge and probably isn't big enough to be a starting defensive tackle but as someone who plays as an interior penetrator in sub packages I think he has a chance to make a team - although my gut instinct is he will have to do so as an UDFA because that lack of a true position will prevent him being drafted. Other notable moves I like the Giants entire draft tbh. Okay they didn't get a Quarterback. But if they didn't value any after the consensus top 3 guys they were right not to reach down the board for one. They got a game changing receiver, the best safety in the draft an intriguing prospect at corner and then three guys I liked on day three in tight end Theo Johnson, running back Tyrone Tracy (former receiver with some return ability and a pass catching option) and Darius Muasu who was yet another of my Shrine Game standouts - a smart, hard hitting linebacker from UCLA. The Ravens also had a good day 3 with TJ Tampa who fell based on speed concerns but has really solid corner tape and fits the smart, tough Raven mould. They also too Tez Walker in round and if he can be brought along slowly and asked just to be a go route specialist and learn to catch the ball a bit better he compliments what they already have on that offense. The Rams had a good draft too for me. Liked their first three picks and while I'm not a Kam Kinchens guys they came back on day 3 with Brennan Jackson, a developmental pass rusher, Tyler Davis to add further to that Dline and then Beaux Limmer who was a steal in round 6 as a developmental center. Finally the Dolphins day 3 picks were an example of a team who know what they are leaning into it, I don't love the value of trading a future 3rd rounder for the 4th round pick they used to take Jaylen Wright when they already have two fast running backs on the roster but when you take that and Malik Washington together it just said to me "here is a team who know what they are." Whether what they are is conducive to winning championships in January and February is a different question. And then there were FOUR... Just the four guys remaining on my board by the end of the draft. The joint fewest I've had - tied with 2021. Halfway through round 5 I was sure I was going to clear it and I was slightly surprised that I didn't. But here are the four and where they have ended up: 1. Beau Brade, S, Mayland - BALTIMORE RAVENS 2. Leonard Taylor II, DT, Miami - NEW YORK JETS 3. Javion Cohen, IOL, Miami - CLEVELAND BROWNS 4. Dallin Holker, TE, Colorado State - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS There was also one sleeper who I hadn't done enough on to grade for the board who went undrafted: N/R. Blake Watson, RB, Memphis - DENVER BRONCOS I wish all those guys well in their future NFL careers. Brade to Baltimore in particular is a fit I absolutely love. Speed stopped him being drafted but he plays physical, downhill and can hit. The Ravens will love him. So that's it. Four months worth of work and free time filling study over and done with for another year. Another draft in the books. Was not my favourite either for drama or for the Bills selections but as with every draft the time to look back is 3 or 4 years down the road. Until next year, that will be a wrap!

To be clear I am not disputing what you say about production. I am adding one caveat to it that regardless of who the OC is we need Josh to have a better year than 2023. But my initial response was to your point on creativity. I think the only time I have actually agreed that the problem was a lack of creativity was under Dorsey. I think at one point just before he was fired we were running the 2nd least pre-snap motion in the league and were the most predictable in our personnel groupings v run / pass split. It was vanilla offense that said "our guys are better than your guys" and we don't have an offense with the talent level to do that.

Yea if this were to be a 10-7 wild card team, Coleman has 600 yards, Bishop only plays in sub, and they lose round 1 of the playoffs then I agree the seats would be very warm in 2025. That I think would be the all or nothing season.

I disagree. I think that they wouldn't have begin this re-load process without Pegs being fully bought in. Unless the season is a disaster (and I mean like losing record territory) they will get 2025. I think expectations are lower this year and that will be reflected in the way things play out.

Larry Fitz ran 4.47 at his pro day. He didn't run at the combine.

The problem with simply crunching the numbers under each of the coaches is that I think in terms of play as a Quarterback 2023 was Josh's worst season since he broke out in 2020. Now I don't put all of that on Josh but I do out a fair amount of it on Josh. Josh has to play better and certainly more consistently. We gave him the best oline he has had and he still made too many bad decisions at times. I don't think the talent around him helped. The coaching change can't have been easy. But I think we need Josh to be better first and foremost. Brady hopefully can help that. But I will tell you when I watched the all22 of his offense vs Dorsey's I am in no doubt who I'd rather have as OC. I think it is what the personnel they have built is best suited to. So maybe it is by design. But if so that's an odd build choice IMO.

I only think that was true under Dorsey. Dorsey's O was very vanilla. Very simple. Put a very high tariff on execution. Daboll's offense was creative and we saw way more creativity when Brady took over. I'm not telling you it is Shanahan or Reid, but it is plenty creative enough. And that was just Brady adding wrinkles to Dorsey's offense. I'll be interested to see what we come out with when he has had an offseason to design it.

It's both. I have no problem investing in the Dline but when it is your highest investment unit both in FA and the draft and yet at no point in your entire reign has it been the strength of the team (we have had pretty good dlines most years but never dominant ones) then both the scale of your investment and how you made it should be questioned. I think that is legitimate. And especially when it has come at the expense of OL and WR at times. Yea you are gonna pick on the one guy out of all those dline investment who has actually been worth the squeeze.

I think most will to be honest. If I had to predict now I'd have Clayton on the PS and I think Grable is right on the bubble. The other 8 are making it. The reason they are making it is the Bills drafted where they had needs this draft. More than any other draft of the Beane era this was a draft entirely for need.

In fairness if you are going to build a bombs away offense you need Josh's deep ball to improve massively on where it was for most of 2023. I do agree though, we are an offense at the moment that is kind of forced to play small ball by our personnel.

They have spent too much on their Dline. That is what it comes down to. In terms of dollars and draft capital. Beane has made 21 picks on the first two days of the draft in his reign. The breakdown is: QB - 1 RB - 3 TE - 2 WR - 1 OL - 3 DL - 6 LB - 3 DB - 2 There are only two numbers that stand out as egregious there to me - it is 1 receiver and 6 DL. Everything else in terms of resource allocation feels within the normal bounds of expectation for someone trying to build and maintain a strong roster over 7 seasons (probably 1 RB too many as well, but again not egregious). And then you add to it: Star, Jefferson, Butler, Addison, Trent Murphy, Daquan, Settle, Jordan Phillips, Ford, Austin Johnson..... and that is only the higher profile guys. Which other position has had so many reasonable established FA vets thrown at it in his time as GM? And people will say "ah that's McDermott's fault it is the rotation.... and I buy that to a point but I crunched the numbers after last season, will dig them out again, and other than KC (where 3 guys played 70%) the top 7 or 8 teams in the league were all broadly in line with the Bills on Dline rotations. The difference is they were almost all using one or two really low investment guys as part of it. We consistently have high picks and high dollars invested up there. And you don't need to take the tea leaves in any event. Just listen to Beane speak. He has said countless times he "makes no apologies" for investing there. It is just how he believes in building.