GunnerBill

I disagree that he can't win a Championship. I think he can. Does the defense need to play better in playoff losses? Sure. But as others have pointed out almost always when a team loses in the playoffs they gave up more than you'd want. The last two years it hasn't stopped them having a chance to win and I don't think either year McDermott has been close to the reason we lost the game. Not even in the top 5 reasons. Either year. As for my line... missing the playoffs with a healthy Josh Allen. Losing a home wildcard game to a team we are clearly better than. Or another 13 second style blunder that is directly on coaching. They are my firing offences. There is a point at which I get the you try something different. But I reject in advance that if the something different ends up with a Championship that proves McDermott was the problem. The game is just way more random than that.

I think the guarantee will be less than that. I think somewhere around $21/22m.

I agree it isn't different to what others do. But I disagree that 3 for $45m is 3 for $45m. That's only true if the contract is fully guaranteed. And Cook's won't be. There are ways to give him and his agent the win in terms of a headline number while making that contract a team friendly one. It's not unique it is just good cap management.

Yea. Players think it matters more than it does.

Agree under Taylor they are like 1 and something in September.

Yes but you make year 3 a largely unguaranteed big number... like $19m plus that he is never going to play on. If he is still a stud at that point you extend him.and lower that number. If he is washed you cut him. I had a model worked out the other day where you do a 3yr $45m extension and his salary cap numbers are basically: 25 - 5m 26 - 9m 27 - 13.5m Then 28 was a big number but it isn't real money. I did have one void year but not a ton in it. Like $4m. I think I had him cuttable for like $7m in dead cap after the 2027 season. If I get time this weekend I'll dig my workings out and post it. I thought it had wins for him and his agent (let them claim they got the number they wanted) and wins for the Bills.

Nope. You normally need two mini reloads during a 12-15 year run with a HOF guy. Last year was one of ours and we made the title game. The next 3 or 4 seasons the window is wide open.

Me too.

That is funnier than you realise haha.

I don't think this is true. We had a core - White, Hyde, Poyer, Milano (all played together for SEVEN seasons). Taron joined them a year later and played that group SIX seasons. Tremaine joined the same year but left a year before the three vet DBs and played with that group FIVE seasons. Ed Oliver joined year later and played with that core for FOUR seasons. That was seven core guys who were brought in during the first 3 years of this regime. Over the last couple of years that they lost four of those core guys. And this is the first attempt since at really reloading the defense. What it is accurate to say is they have had multiple versions of the Dline around Oliver in that time. Largely that has been mid tier FAs... and I agree they have not always spent that money well. They have made two big investments there - Groot in round 1 who has been good but not great; and Von as a FA which for injury reasons ultimately failed. But this is the first attempt to actually remake the defense since those guys brought in through the first three years of the regime. We are entering year nine. It is reasonable at this point that you need to do that. Tbh the Bills D kinda bucked the trend in terms of staying together and being productive for five seasons. That isn't me saying they have done enough at receiver. I am pretty vocal about where I think they are still lacking and their under prioritisation of the position over the past 3 or 4 offseasons. I wanted Christian Watson. I wanted to trade up for Jordan Addison. I wanted to trade up for BTJ. But I think the defense was talent deficient last year and it was right to try and kick start McDermott era defense 2.0 this offseason. Would just have been nice if they'd done more than baseline FA acquisitions at receiver at the same time.

Does your gf have nudes?

I watched the presser. He didn't.

Yep. I think that is the ball park. And with the 3rd year of the extension being a pretty comfortable out for the Bills. Maybe around $5-6m dead cap ideally... but definitely no more than $8m. So it might be $15m AAV as the shiny number for the agent. $12.5m AAV as the number for cap purposes and then about $11.75m AAV if the final year of that extension is one he isn't really likely to play on because it has a big cap # but most of that is non-guaranteed base salary (you'd either extend and lower the hit if he is still good or cut bait if he isn't..). Davis can't easily replace James Cook anywhere. Also worth saying for all the Davis lovers.... he is less than two months younger than James Cook. So anyone thinking it's a young guy with more development..... not sure that's the case. He is an OLD 2nd year player. Basically it is just a choice to accept getting worse in order to get cheaper. Normally at running back I'm fine with that. But when the running back is clearly the most dynamic skill position player on the offense I am less gung ho.

Yep. If he turns up the final week of camp he probably doesn't start week 1 or even week 2. But that isn't about being in the doghouse it is about being in proper game shape. They'd ramp him up and week 3 or 4 he'd be back to the starting job. But as long as he is here most or all of camp James Cook will be the starter. No question. He is just a different talent level altogether than the other guys.

Don't know if he was significant but he was/is competition. I wonder if Hancock might get a look too. Feels like a ton of their eggs are in the "Cole Bishop astronomic leap forward" bucket though.

It has long since been removed for the interwebs I believe. The clip never confirmed it was Carlos Hyde btw, but it did show the Bills working the phones trying to trade up and then Whaley standing hands on hips looking up at the TV pissed and Monos who was sitting to his right looking at him and saying "they got our guy."

Yes. I don't believe bulliten board material has any real impact on mental state. Players convince themselves it does. Normally as a results based narrative after the event. Nobody ever talks about the bulletin board stuff when they lose. It only matters when they win. It's the reason! It isn't. It's mumbo jumbo.

It's all myth and legend. Players might think they played better because they felt some sort of slight before the game. But they didn't. It makes for good emotive stories. But there is no factual basis whatsoever. Just a bunch of feels.

I am not using placebo effect in its medical sense. It now has an accepted wider application for analogous situations where a percieved effect is bigger than the reality.

Yea fans hat the business side of football. But it exists. You can't play stop the world I want to get off. If fans think $15m is "ridiculous" they are not following the NFL market. Is it high? Yes. Is it more than you'd like to pay him? Yes. But it isn't ridiculous. And I don't break the market down by 2 down vs 3 down. I break it down between guys who are a genuine threat to go the distance and guys who are just chain movers. Cook is the former.

Not quite right. He said the Bills told him on his visit that if he was there they wanted him. Not in a call on draft night. But of course they edit the video to suit the reality. It isn't a true reflection of what went on in the draft. It's a snapshot cleverly edited together to make the team look good. I remember long ago before Embedded the social media team did a post draft video that showed Whaley trying, and failing, to trade up on day 2 for Carlos Hyde, the running back out of Ohio State, and apparently when it went out Whaley and Monos were apoplectic. Lesson learnt.

You say it is ridiculous amount. I don't. I say it's the top end of his market, sure. But ridiculous? Not for me. I don't think any of the other guys that renewed this offseason did. But Diggs and Poyer got new deals after playing the social media game in previous seasons.

The right answer is Fitz. I was kinda sad he didn't come back to back up Josh for one final year in 2021 to then retire a Bill. I believe Beane had a conversation with him and then Washington arrived on the scene offering an opportunity to start and obviously he was gonna take that. I started watching the Bills in 02. Fitz was easily the most fun watch of any QB we had between then and Josh. And when the team isn't good just give me entertainment. Nothing worse than a bad team trying to Jauron ball its way to 7 wins with Kelly Holcomb throwing 3 yard passes 15 times a game.

Put out what? One message on social media? Plenty.

And there is an even bigger bump coming. Agree. Don't think Cook has acted like that at all. It's been quite low key by modern NFL contract negotiation standards.