GunnerBill

I take the point but he is a bit John Schneider like in that he has found some elite talent in later rounds. Kittle in the 5th Warner in the 3rd Samuel in the 2nd Hufanga in the 5th That is 9 all pro selections from guys picked outside the first round. And while I agree his first round record isn't much to write home about he does have Aiyuk and Nick Bosa. That is six elite players drafted and it is elite talent that wins. He has more misses than Beane, I agree, nobody finds contributors and guys that can play in this league at Beane's rate. But when valuing side by side I will always stack the guys who find elite talent ahead because it is elite talent that ultimately wins. Taron was Beane. He was 2018. 2017 was White, Dawkins and Milano. But agree that 2017 draft was a cornerstone draft and then they got Allen and Taron the next year. If every draft class was finding talent like those two did we'd have a Superbowl by now. But to an extent it is @BADOLBILZ's point. It is easier to draft well when everything is a need because you can genuinely let the board come to you.

Indeed in that three year run: 2012-2014 he was third behind only JJ Watt and Justin Houston in total sacks.

I don't even think Kelsay is comparable with AJE. AJ's sack production the last two years is fine for a guy who doesn't start and is a situational player. I am sceptical that he will be able to translate that rate as (or if?) his snaps increase, but let's see. Kelsay was a starting defensive end who barely missed a game for eight seasons in an era when teams rotated their defensive line less and averaged fewer than 4 sacks a year through those eight years. And he got two contract extensions. Baffling.

I am extremely confident in saying it will be the same. They will try and hold off running Josh until the rubber hits the road.

James Cook was not an all pro last year and guys "soon to be added to the list" are by definition not yet elite difference makers. I like the group of young talent he has from the last couple of drafts. Maybe one of them gets to that status. But they haven't yet. If you read my previous posts in the thread you will see I say Allen is his one proven elite difference maker drafted. Oliver and Taron Johnson are close but not quite elite. Who is the next closest of his 44 draft picks? The trade for Diggs was a home run, no question. He was an elite difference maker for us for three and a half years. Again read my full range of posts in the thread.

They were very clear about when Beane was hired. Both Terry and Brandon were explicit. The only year Terry was intentionally vague about who was in charge wae 2017. When the name above the door was Doug Whaley but nobody actually believes he was in control. Sean McDermott was. As for your question: The draftboard is the right answer. And that is set by Brandon after assimilating all the information from the personnel staff and coaching staff. But if Ed is higher than Christian on the board it doesn't matter if on draft night McDermott says "yea but I like Christian better" Ed Oliver would be the pick. I know you only used that as a rhetorical example but FWIW Brandon Beane LOVED Ed Oliver. He was willing to go into the top 5 for him if they needed to. They made calls. But if you remember 2019 was a good draft at the top and nobody was willing to move out. But say the Bills had the 4th overall pick that year? They'd have still picked Ed Oliver.

My tier 1 is: Howie Roseman Eric DeCosta Brett Veach John Lynch Brad Holmes Will McClay (not technically the GM in title but he runs personnel in Dallas and has turned down actual GM jobs because they pay him like a GM and he is never getting fired). Tier 2 is: John Schneider (reason tier 2 - too many round 1 whiffs but excellent in the rest of the draft) Les Snead (reason tier 2 - he is a big sugar high for my liking in his pro personnel moves but excellent drafter) Jason Licht (reason tier 2 - beyond Tom Brady he has struggled to get QB right but has had a solid overall roster) Brandon Beane (reason tier 2 - doesn't whiff a lot in the draft but lacks difference makers) Nick Caserio (reason tier 2 - still in the honeymoon phase but smashed the rebuild, found his QB and his coach)

It has been definitively stated both by Terry Pegula and by Brandon Beane himself. Brandon has control of the 53 and personnel. Sean has control of the gameday actives / inactives and the coaches. The Bills are extremely collaborative. They let McDermott handpick his GM because they wanted the two to co-exist harmoniously after years of Whaley - Marrone and Whaley - Ryan strife. So Sean isn't mandating players. That isn't how it works, but would Brandon Beane ever do a Whaley and make a big move in the draft that his coach is so unhappy with he storms outta the room? No. The people who think it isn't clear are the people who want to believe that everything they don't like is Sean McDermott's fault. It is very clear, the Bills have stated it publicly and those of us who know people who are or have been in the building confirm they operate it true to their word. Brandon Beane runs personnel. He identifies the free agents and he makes the draft picks. But the coaches input into that process and he listens to input. The final decision is always his.

2nd winningest. Behind KC. Obviously. And 3 of our last 4 seasons have ended at the hands of the Chiefs. Obviously.

Before this last draft they'd still be bottom 6. I'd have to crunch the numbers again now when you include the Coleman pick.

You don't understand how tight Beane and McDermott are.

Yep. That is exactly why.

The last three seasons they have basically not run Josh before Thanskgiving. It is a consistent pattern that Josh's carries tick up the last 6 or 7 weeks as the games matter more. I think that can't be coincidence.

Hmm. Least favoured..... #1 Rex Ryan - hated him before he arrived, hated the hire, gave him the benefit of the doubt but he proved me right. #2 Richie Incognito - heard him interviewed in his first spell here and thought he came across as a jerk. Then there was the whole bullying incident at Miami and even when he returned he wasn't my type of person. I know he had his own challenges and I genuinely wish him well but just the type of person I'd avoid in real life. #3 Percy Harvin - less of a personality thing there just more I thought he was hideously overrated long before the Bills signed him. His career was overpromise and underdeliver. Found him hard to root for. #4 Chris Kelsay - not for him, but for what he represented in my first decade following the Bills. A defensive end who started 120 games for us over a 9 year career here and topped out at 5.5 sacks yet was re-signed twice. He was emblematic of a team that simply wasn't even trying to win.

In AAV, yes. He is still near the top of actual cash per year though.

Not quite right. The LockedOn Network has existed for a while. Joe has been a contributor on it for a long time (as has the other Draft Network founder you reference - Kyle Crabbs) but they didn't start or found that. They were two of the five founders of the Draft Network. Marino and Crabbs had originally collaborated together on NDT Scouting with Jon Ledyard. The Draft Network was basically Ledyard's idea funded by a guy name JC Cornell whose dad owns/owned Target. Marino, Crabbs and Trevor Sikkema (now of PFF) were the other three "founders" and they were really the content guys. Ledyard was the convener / organiser, Cornell put up the cash and the other three guys were the ones who gave the site its credibility through their content. Basically it began to fall apart when Ledyard had to resign over some racist tweets that emerged from years prior. Then Cornell sold up, Sikkema left to go to PFF and it ended up as a basket case. Ironically 2022 which in my mind was their best year in terms of their actual draft coverage, quality of their content etc was a complete disaster behind the scenes. The new ownership was running it into the ground financially, they were being sued by their web hosts and their live draft show was filmed in a porn studio where the analysts had to sleep on blow up beds and hide sex toys out of shot. I think Joe and Kyle tried to keep it going for as long as they could but eventually they walked away in the middle of the 2023 draft season and took their podcast "the Draft Dudes" back to the Locked on Network where it had begun before being incorporated into the Draft Network. The Draft Network website is now back (after being offline for much of the 2024 draft season) and they look like they are producing content again. There is a LOT of early 2025 draft content some of which is decent enough. They still have Keith Sanchez (who was a personnel advisor at LSU) who is a credible analyst on all things draft and personnel but the rest of their contributors are people I'd classify as bloggers about the draft rather than analysts who can really get into the film and break players down the way Joe and Kyle can. So in short, it looks like they are going to give it another go in 2025 but the quality of the people they have isn't what it was. It is a shame because there is a market for a site doing exactly what TDN does. But it needs really good management and it looks like it was a classic start up story behind the scenes. A group of buddies with a cool idea and a bit of start up capital but lacking the strategic direction to bring it together.

Fair, no I didn't. I should have phrased more carefully because he did "spend" those picks. Not team has drafted at a lower cost in terms of draft value chart except the Buccaneers.

your timing is slightly out - he wanted to hire Jackson in the Rex round, not the McDermott round. But you are correct Whaley wanted to carry on interviewing in 2017. He was in the process of putting a slip in for Steelers DC Keith Butler when the Pegulas pulled the plug. They had a second meeting with McDermott and his wife on the Pegula yacht without Whaley in attendance where Kim was already running Mrs McDermott through school choices and districts look for a house in. Dougie still thought he was mid coaching hunt and Kim was already onto house hunting for the coach's wife! I think on your second part the other thing they probably like about Beane is he is the first to own his mistakes. And Terry probably tired of people like Rex and the old Sabres GM (name escapes me, Whaley's buddy) always blaming everyone else. His sense of "look I got this wrong it's on me and I know how to fix it" probably resonates a little better than some of the other execs Pegula has had to listen to. I don't know for certain but I'd be shocked if Beane went to Diggs for a pay cut. I think their mind was made up they were moving on.

OL - The minus in the "B-" is for building, in his own words, a "horrible" offensive line in 2018 to protect his rookie Quarterback and the 2022 moves. I said it at the time - Saffold was always overrated and totally washed and Bates was a backup masquerading as a starter. IMO the offensive line was the biggest need on the roster going into that FA period and they went for two guys they were comfortable with (Bates as an incumbent and Saffold who Kromer knew) and it failed. I think they failed predictably. They did a much better job in 2023 with Cybo and McGovern but 2022 was a missed opportunity. WR - I did factor in his lack of investment at the position, yes. You may disagree but I think it is relevant. Only one team in football has spent less at the position in terms of draft capital in the years Beane has been here. When you have Josh Allen under centre that's a mistake IMO. On DL - the reason it is a D+ in free agency for me is it is the spot he has spent the most cap dollars since he has been here in terms of FA acquisitions and the production way underperforms expectation. On safety - maybe a D is harsh. But I start from the perspective of a C is neutral. Maybe it should be a D+. But trading a pick (I know only a 7th) for Dean Marlowe only to not use him remains mystifying to me that has to knock something off.

You credit him with guys he didn't select? Interesting approach. As for leaving guys off... I didn't leave anyone off. I was asking who is his 4th most successful pick and I think too early to say it is any of those four. He was on the recruitment teams, but "played a big role" well it depends how you quantify a big role. Buddy and Russ made the call on Marrone and Whaley's recommendation in 2015 was to hire Hue Jackson. Now that would likely have failed too. But that was what happened.

I know FOR A FACT that Whaley did not push either of those hires. Not true. Brett Veach, Eric DeCosta and John Lynch are three of the top half dozen GMs in football. None of them have control over coaching. It is increasinly common now for organisations to have GMs and HCs on the same tier of the organisational structure both reporting into a senior football exec or the owner directly.

Even if I agree with you re. coaching - I don't - Beane is not responsible for the coaching. He didn't hire the Head Coach, he doesn't hire the coordinators.

For sure it is easier drafting at the start. I don't think their drafting since has been good enough to win a Championship. It has been good enough to keep the team very competitive year in year out. But you need stars to win Superbowls. And they haven't drafted enough of those. One (Allen) in 44 picks Beane has made excluding this year's class.

I didn't forget that one. I did refer to the second tier FAs (though think Coleman was a trade wasn't he?). I still think overall Diggs, Brown, Beasley all weight strongly in his favour there than the lower level whiffs. On the DL - possibly, but I don't know who was responsible for all the ex Panthers on the line.

I ignored the OPs explanations from the scale. They don't work for me.