GunnerBill

Yep. McDermott coached a good game that day. It would have been a blowout but for pure execution errors. This is my point consistently. Fans overblame coaching and underblame players.

No, I don't. Obviously there are plays that go both ways throughout games some of which are critical to the outcome. But even so the last 4 games have come down to 1 or 2 plays in the last 90 seconds of the football game. Twice it has gone for us, twice it hasn't. The Chiefs being down to their 4th and 5th string OTs didn't hurt either in that Superbowl. But I agree. You have to be able to get there with your pass rush without sending extra guys. Easy to say, harder to do. It is why the Bills swung big on Von.

The plan wasn't about playing tighter it was about confusing Mahomes and making him hold the ball. Was a good adjustment, no question. But the Bills have had success against Mahomes too. Sadly not in the post season. Why that is, hard to say, lots of factors. But we are not that different schematically so I am reluctant to put it down to that. Agree with all this. The margin in Bills - KC games the last 4 times has been razor thin. They have all basically come down to 1 or 2 plays. It has gone our way twice, their way twice. Unfortunately they have won the two big ones. That sucks. But I don't think it proves we can't beat them in a big one.

I mean that is just inaccurate the adjustment the Bengals made in that game was to go 3 man rush drop 8 and flood the shallow zones. Was a great adjustment by Anarumo no doubt, but it was not a result of coming out of zone and playing more man. Indeed it was the opposite.

Yes I didn't think Bernard was very good when he played in 2022. But I think you slightly miss the point. Scouts, coaches everyone underestimate and over estimate what players can turn into but players don't go from being one type of player to a completely different type of player from one year to the next typically. So he wasn't going to go from possession receiver to downfield gamebreaker. Hence he wasn't it. It is not me saying he wouldn't get better than he was in 2017. It is me saying I could see the type of player he was. This is the first time since then I don't immediately see that true outside, downfield receiver that is going to consistently win his matchups. That receiving corps didn't have it. Or does this one, though I think this one overall has more talent than 2018 did.

Said that earlier. They made a couple of really low percentage plays on offense where they just got a bit of luck.

On 2018, no. I think there is a debate on 2017 and relevant to the 2017 conversation is that at this point of that offseason we still had Sammy. So if I'm comparing how I feel a few weeks out from camp to how I have felt at the same point in other years I'd have felt better in 2017. The reason 2017 (eventual roster) and 2024 (if this is the group of WRs by the time the season begins) is closer matched to me is that Jordan Matthews had averaged 890 yards in his three seasons in Philly. There is nobody with that level of consistent production on this roster. I think they probably have more guys with some history of production now than they had week 1 in 2017..... and I do think Samuel > Matthews talent wise even if he hasn't got the proven production. So I'd have this group just ahead of 2017 but I do think that one is more debatable than 2018.

But not so much lower than the league average in one score games.

The two teams were pretty much on par in 2019. Both finished 10-6. Bills were 1-4 in games vs playoff teams in the regular season. Houston were 2-3. They were a more experienced team and won the playoff game in overtime.

Would be nice.

Unfortunately attempting to walk the walk looked like it caused him physical pain last season.

Except the time he already did it, obvs.

13 seconds is on coaching. I have never defended that. On the second bolded - it most definitely did. Their blitz percentage dropped significantly and their efficiency improved overnight. Despite their injuries.

I think they are obviously better at WR unless Rice misses half the season or something but until we hear anything from the league on possible discipline I am going to act like he is there. His development plus Hollywood Brown compared to the start of last season when MVS was arguably their best vet receiver. And that is without even trying to predict the impact Worthy could have. OT is a legit concern. I have never been a Jawaan Taylor guy right back to him being drafted by the Jags and it looks right now like Wanya Morris or the rookie out of BYU will start at left tackle. I still wouldn't be surprised if they add a ring chasing vet. But basically their tackles were bad last year and it wasn't enough of a problem to stop them because they have a magician at Quarterback. The one area they have "got worse" is corner losing Sneed. But they still have McDuffie, I imagine he will move back outside and I like the two young corners in the system from the 2022 draft. Jaylen Watson had an exceptional game in the Eagles Superbowl as a 7th round rookie (he outplayed McDuffie that day actually) and Joshua Williams, who took a little longer to come around, was balling by the end of last season. Sure, neither of them are Sneed day 1, but they are two talented young corners who have already started and performed in big spots for the Chiefs. I think they are better than they have been the last two years UNLESS Kelce has dropped off either through age or "other interests". If he is still Travis Kelce this team will be better. They were 11-6 last year. They will be at least 2 wins better in 2024. And then as for the playoffs.... well unless Tom Brady is on the other side Mahomes is 13-1.

And I was VERY critical of him in that period last year in terms of his defensive playcalling. The loss to Mac Jones is one of the worst defensive gameplans the Bills have tried since the days of Gailey and Wannstedt. Though it wasn't "playing not to lose" that was the problem in those games it was actually the ridiculous blitzing. Once someone stole the blitzes page out of McDermott's playbook last year and he got back to calling the type of defense the Bills have largely had success running our season turned around.

The defense has unquestionably played poorly in the playoff losses to the Chiefs and Bengals. But I don't think it has primarily been because of scheme or coaching. That isn't to say there isn't an element there that ultimately falls to coaching. But they have been shorn of key players in each of the playoff losses since the AFCCG of 2020. And there have been other contributory factors too (the Bengals game I put a total line through not a single Bill turned up ready to play that day, whether through locker room disputes or the mental exhaustion of the Hamlin situation or whatever). The prevent defense thing gets thrown around but on tape it isn't really true. They play zone, sure. They are a zone team.

And Zay did adjust. And he has had himself a reasonable career. That wasn't the question though. What we had seen in 2017 was pretty clear what his ceiling was - if he could sort his issues out he was going to be a solid enough possession receiver and chain mover. Even if he had fully sorted the hands that was the type of player he was and is (2018 was actually his 2nd best career year by yards and a career year by touchdowns). So it was obvious by year 2 he wasn't going to be a #1 receiver. When it is pretty apparent going into a season that a 2nd year player of that type is your best receiver (and Zay was our best receiver in 2018) you are in trouble. Our receiver room going into 2024 is certainly less than stellar. But going into 2018 it was a disaster.

Yes. Because of dumb ***** the players did. That game was a total coaching mismatch. It should have been a blowout win.

I think he outcoached McDaniel by a long way in 2022. But for turnovers by offense the Bills win that going away. But sure he hasn't outcoached his opposite number in the playoffs a ton of times. But equally I don't think a ton of the losses have been coaching failure either.

Yes. Players make great plays on bad calls too. And they make terrible plays on good calls. You have to watch the tape and try and separate one from the other. That is my entire point on this. Coaching is about more than end result. Sometimes as a coach (and I have been paid to do it in another sport) you walk off a field and think I got everything wrong today and got the right result. And sometimes you walk off a field and go I got everything right and lost. That is the beauty of sport. The best coach doesn't always win. The best team doesn't always win. There are sufficient variables to make it unpredictable. That is why people love it.

Yes. Of course he has to take responsibility. But 31 coaches lose every year. You have to work out how much that ultimately rests on coaching in each case.

If the offense stalls because the scheme fails, or because the play calling sucks, sure. It was individual player error.

I was wrong on Josh Allen. That humility has long since been demonstrated. But I called Zay and Kelvin before 2018 and on that I was right. So if you want me to take the lumps for the misses (and I agree, I should) you have to also credit the hits. My last few first round mocks have been pretty darn good as well (27, 27, 28 of the 32 first rounders the last 3 years). And I don't know who has told you I do 300+ prospects. My number is usually around half that. I get to 140-150 give or take.

Sure. Everything "stops with the Head Coach." But McDermott didn't cause that defeat. Nor did Leslie Frazier. Or the defense. Their offense made a couple of crazy plays (they still had prime Watson and Hopkins, they were good) and our offense puked on itself.

Yes. I do. The Houston metdown was mainly on the offense throwing up all over itself. Houston made a couple of crazy 1 in a 100 plays on offense. The defense did not blow that game.