GunnerBill

Essentially you are asking to buy me out of my Bills fandom. Not because I am only in it for the winning, no Bills fan could be accused of that. But because it is the hope that makes it worth it. What do I value my Bills fandom at? Honestly? You'd have to be talking 7 figures. Needs to be never work again money.

The guy I have always said Shakir reminds me of is Ekeler at 27 he was a dynamic dual threat running back putting up 900 rushing and 700 receiving. Two years later he was no more than a return guy. He had a simiar low centre of gravity, try and spin out of every tackle, style as Shakir in the pass game.

Yea that is the point in the boundary thing. It's not an issue until it is. You can beat 75% of this league within minimal boundary threat. But when it comes to it against the best teams and the best coaches they are going to force you to beat them outside if they don't think you can. It's classic Belichick. I'm going to take away what you do well and make you beat me another way and if you do, fair play to you.

I wouldn't. He is toast that is burnt on both sides.

The point about Shakir is the efficiency would continue to fall because he isn't versatile (or you might say 'complete') enough to be used in the range of ways you would need to use him to get him 160 targets. You'd end up trying to force feed the ball to him in situations where he is not best suited to a) get open and b) make the catch and so the likelihood is the efficiency would drop again. The more you get away from using the particular skillset he has and towards trying to use him as a "do it all" receiver the less efficient he will ultimately be. I actually think there is a case to be made that the way to get greater production out of Shakir would be to dial his targets back slightly.... not massively... but about a target per game compared to 2024 and to focus those targets better on optimising his skillset. I don't think the Bills are in the position to do that without having a better situation on the boundary, but I am open to the possibility that Shakir ends up having a 1,000 yard season at some stage on fewer targets than the 100 he had in 2024. You can't exact league discipline on a player based on gut feel about what it was. The NFLPA would have a field day with it.

At this moment, granted a lot can change, smart money is on declining the option.

I just don't know if he has the nuance or understanding of how to use the athletic ability he does have to compensate for what he doesn't. But there is a lot of trash on his 2024 tape. And good on him for having the balls to call himself on it. Respect.

Hmmm. Knee. Not great.

No the biggest Keon guy, but I effing love that.

I have never used that terminology for the Ravens or the Cowboys either. I don't really go in for attacking teams that win plenty but can't get over the hump in tournament play. Those teams are normally not far away and it is about finding the small modifications that you can try and use to get you there. Those modifications can be changing the coach or the General Manager. But I am just not persuaded that is the right lever to pull. Maybe I will get there. But I don't see it right now. There are, as I have said multiple times, three scenarios in which I am already clear I would fire McDermott: 1. The Bills missing the playoffs save for in a situation when they lose Josh Allen for a significant stretch. 2. The Bills losing a playoff game to a team they have a clear Quarterback advantage over (not a Mahomes, Burrow, Jackson). 3. Another clearly identifiable coaching blunder akin to 13 seconds. You can have one mulligan. You don't get two. Any of those 3 scenarios would convince me the coaching is the issue. I may get there in other scenarios too. But those are the 3 that are obviously identifiable.

I just think that is how all Bills - Chiefs games are. If we kept them to say 19 in a post season game it would be 21-19 or 19-17 IMO.

No, we wouldn't but on last year's schedule we'd have won 7 or 8 games. That means Josh is worth 5 or 6 wins himself. I think that is at the top end of what difference franchise QBs make on the W-L record above league average replacement. Probably a game or two ahead of Lamar and Mahomes. The only other guy I might have on Josh's level from 2024 is Burrow. They went 9-8 but genuinely are a 3 or 4 win team with a league average replacement because their D last year was genuinely horrific.

Oh no, it is partly coaching. But I don't think it is as big of a coaching disparity that a bit of luck with a bounce or two or an injury here and there or just a few more difference makers couldn't get over. McDermott / Frazier / Babich HAVE outcoached Reid in the regular season. Now maybe Reid intentionally sand bags but I don't really believe that. I just think they haven't found the right gameplans at the right times but that doesn't mean they can't do it.

Because the truth of it is it's never as easy as one thing. Even 13 seconds which was overwhelmingly a coaching fail, in order for it to play out the way it did it still required the UDFA they were starting a corner to misplay his assignment. Football is just too complex to pin point a single point of failure.

Our 2017 roster isn't at our 2025 roster's level though. If you are replacing Josh with a scrub, then yea, they are a 3 or 4 win team. But I don't think that is the right comparison. The right comparison is the Geno Smith type comparison @Kirby Jackson articulated. Sure, they are varying qualities of backup QB in the NFL. But any team required to go to its backup for an entire season is going to e under .500. Had the Eagles started Kenny Pickett for 17 games in 2024 they are a below .500 football team.

Honestly if they are the two options I lean 2-4. I'd pick 1-5 if it were an option but these games are so close year on year (with the exception of the first one) that I find it difficult not to see the Bills getting a break one year.

There's also a difference between saying how many might they win as an abstract concept and looking back at how many they would have won when you have actual games to look back at. The Ravens were 12-5 last year. There is no way they'd have been 10-7 without Lamar. Their defense really struggled the first half of the year and they won some shoot outs - the two Cincy games spring immediately to mind but there were a couple of others too - that they don't win with a Geno Smith. I think Lamar was probably worth at least 4 wins over Geno in 2024. Post-Thanksgiving when the Ravens defense clicked, possibly different story. But that wasn't the truth for a lot of last year.

No. You can make an argument for Fangio. But I'd take McDermott above Anarumo and Bowles. Of course the difference is McDermott has only actually coordinated one defense against KC in the playoffs. And it was in 2023.

1. I count 7 (although I can take an argument on the Colts game) 2. 11 - I don't think they beat Detroit without him or the first New England game. 3. If both missed the whole season? 10 - and if I didn't have confidence in Grable and Van Demark that would be lower. Bad tackle play sinks seasons. We see it around the league. 4. In 2024 - 13 - although I am not sure we beat Baltimore without him in the playoffs. 5. 13.

Yep, he does. I talked about it at length before last year's draft when I was calling him a non-separator and was told ad nauseum I was "just obsessed with 40 times." Even though I'd expressed this view before he even ran at the combine. It's why I like him as a big slot. Because given free releases he seems much more willing to go and dictate the route - almost like it frees him up to focus on getting to his spot. When he is outside with a DB in his face it is as thought they become the focus and he loses any track of where he needs to be.

Yea I don't see any nuance anywhere in his game. It's a bit bull in a china shop. I know you have used the Davante Adams comparison previously. He came out the first year I ever tried evaluating guys and I don't think I even looked at him so I don't know necessarily what I'd have made of him at a similar stage of his career / development. But Adams was second only to Stef Diggs as a route technician in his prime IMO and in a bigger, more powerful body and consequently better at the catch point. I don't know how someone (Coleman) who is so lacking in the basics of route running and spatial awareness goes from there to Davante Adams level good. That feels like a hell of a hill to climb to me and there are a lot of tendencies in his game that he'd have to unlearn pretty quickly.

He played better but his deep ball accuracy was still not there.

I said it the other day I think there is a deal that is doable at camp that gives him some injury guarantees without a long term commitment with a declinable option next year. It would essentially serve the same purpose as a one year bridge to whatever happens in 2026.

First, Cook didn't say he feels "disconnected." That was Schefter's word to try and describe where he thinks the relationship is at. As for moving him for a 5th or 6th during the draft..... do you think that pick is more valuable to the Bills in 2025 than James Cook? I think unlikely. And they will get that value back next year in terms of a comp pick if he walks and depending on what else we do in free agency. And on "he should have asked before the draft" trust me he did. The Bills and Cook had conversations pre-draft and his agent was testing the market. What Cook is doing is he is maximising his leverage while he has it. It's nearly at the end of the road for that leverage and come training camp he will be here in some form. Nothing he has done or is doing deserves the vitriol in your post.

Not even that long anymore. I remember a time when all the spring activity wrapped up in May. Then it went to mini camp being in the first week of June. Now it is second week of June. At which point it is max five weeks to training camp opening. I do think it is a genuine issue when they look at an 18th game, or different rules around coach hiring season.... and multiple other things. They have compressed the calendar so much there really isn't much space left. And I know the individuals involved are well remunerated... but for coaches and administrators it is really their only break of the year. At least players get the time between their season ending and late March when phase 1 activities start.