GunnerBill

He has fired 2 OCs and 2 STCs. Think it is fair to question the hires he has made to the STC role.

I think the Packers off was a 2nd plus Romeo Doubs. I'm not sold that constitutes an unbeatable offer.

Sorry you are correct. I forgot about Rick. 2 OCs fired in 9 years and one left for a HC job.

If DK is saying he only wants a contender it means he is willing to come in at the lower end of his range (roughly $22-26m AAV) on a new deal. The Bills can absolutely make that work. Something like: 3 years, $72m, $40m guaranteed. Signing bonus $32m. 2025 salary: $2m (guaranteed) 2025 amortised signing bonus: $6.4m 2025 cap hit: $8.4m 2026 salary: $10m (of which $6m guaranteed) 2026 amortised signing bonus: $6.4m 2026 cap hit: $16.4m 2027 salary: $28m (zero guaranteed) 2027 amortised signing bonus: $6.4m 2027 cap hit: $34.4m 2028 salary: VOID 2028 amortised signing bonus: $6.4m 2028 cap hit: $6.4m 2029 salary: VOID 2029 amortised signing bonus: $6.4m 2029 cap hit: $6.4m Those first two years work very easily in our cap the you have a decision after 2026. Cutting him at that point gives you a dead cap hit in 2027 of $19.2m which looks scary but against where the cap is now is really not. The anticipated cap in 2027 via Spotrac is $337m and they have been coming in low on their estimates the past couple of years. Using their estimate that dead cap his would equate to 5.6% of the cap but you could spread the pain over two years as a post 1 June ($6.4m in 2027 and $12.8m). Equally if DK us still performing at a high level in 2026 you could redo his deal at that point. You'd have leverage because he'd have no new guarantees left on the deal. So you'd say "we will give you some guaranteed money up front if you agree to spread some of the salary across 2027 and 2028 turning them into 'real' years on the contract." Teams care about cap numbers. Players care about cash. You might to chuck $5m or so additional in as a sweetener (rather than just guaranteeing money that wasn't guaranteed before) but there is a pretty easy, by NFL standards, negotiation to be done there if DK wants to stay and he is still performing. Is it a bit of a chips in play? Sure. Does it come without risk? No. But it is something the Bills can definitely do without being completely all or nothing. It is exactly the sort of controlled aggression that I want to see from them this offseason.

McDermott has fired precisely 1 O/D coordinator. Dorsey. He has fired two STCs and let another walk at the end of his contract. Going into year 9 that is actually pretty solid consistency.

You mean in the league? Cos that is not true of the Bills.

Beane at the Combine last week said we were about $4m over the cap currently on his calcs FWIW.

He isn't a lost cause. But if he needs to be part of the package to get me DK he is disposable.

To develop the point I think the other factor linked to NIL is if you had a 3rd round grade previously from the advisory committee you came out because 3rd round rookie money was better than no money (I know was never really no money). Now if you think stay in college I could be a first round guy next year and get NIL money in the meantime that becomes a more attractive long term play.

He has formally requested a trade and Seattle are allowing him to explore options!!!

Spotrac have the AAV at $13.25m as well, so there might be something off there or he signed for less than reported. But on the option bonus stuff they are right, they just can't show that as counting yet because it doesn't count yet. Even though in reality we all know it will.

Nah, in reality it is more than that. It's as I predicted they'd have to do if they wanted to keep the 2025 hit down. A small pro-rated signing bonus (only $7m spread over 5 years) with another chunk - $9.1m - as an "option bonus" that triggers in 2026 and is amortized at $1.8m for the remaining 4 years of the deal and a 5th void year. If you cut him before the 2027 season there would be $4.2m of the original signing bonus left as dead cap and $7.3m of the 2026 option bonus left as dead cap. So it would be a total of $11.5m to cut him before 2027. Reducing by $3.2m per year thereafter.

And redirect money from guard to tackle possibly? Their need at left tackle is desperate. It is bigger than any single positional need the Bills have on their roster.

I think it makes sense for the Chiefs. Thuney is still a significant loss, make no mistake, but if they are rebuilding that offensive line building it around Creed and Trey makes sense. Paying 4/5 spots on your Oline only to put trash out there at left tackle is a bad strategy.

I think Egbuka can play wide as a Z. I don't think he is a strict slot in the way Shakir is. I know he has played overwhelmingly in the slot for Ohio State, but there are plays wide where he looks good to me. It is a bit of a projection though, I grant you.

I second this, and the arm size likely means the Bills will discount him. I know they met with him but they love arm length.

First, this has nothing to do with Worthy. Not sure why you want to keep making every topic about Worthy. It is the second time in the last few weeks you have done it in a place where it has zero relevance. Starting to feel like trolling. Second, this also has nothing to do with the Bills. Deebo hasn't been traded to the Bills. Nor was I talking about whether I would or wouldn't have wanted the Bills to trade for him. I was talking very explicitly about the trade that has happened in reality not a fictional one that hasn't. But I will answer what I don't like about Deebo the player.... I think he is slightly overrated by a lot of people even within Kyle's scheme. He only has one thousand yard receiving season in his career and before people scream about his rushing yards he only has two thousand yard years in terms of yards from scrimmage. I have long since argued he is one of the most scheme specific players in the entire NFL. He doesn't do a ton of receiver things all that well. He doesn't really run routes. He doesn't get off press coverage. He isn't good at the catch point if there is any sort of competition. What he can do is use his combination of wiggle and power when he gets the ball in his hands to make people miss in space. A lot of his success in San Francisco is a direct result of Shanhan being the best play designer in football who has found more was to isolate Samuel in single defender looks than I believe any other coordinator could do. Every OC uses iso concepts. Not many, if any, have as many ways to use them and get to them when the defense thinks something else is coming as Kyle. And don't just take my word for it on the specificity of his fit in that scheme. When he was trying to hold out for a contract a couple of years ago Deebo's market was considerably softer for a trade than he and his agent expected. Now when he is traded it is for a 5th round pick. That is like Diontae Johnson compensation. It is not like Deebo is 32 like Hopkins either (who also fetched a 5th). He is just turned 29 in January. Nor is his contract an albatross - one year $17.5m. So why was his market not hotter? Injuries play a part, sure. But it is because a lot of NFL teams look at him the same way I do. Potentially elite (at his peak) in Shanahan's scheme. JAG in most others. I don't see the fit in Kliff Kingsbury's offense to be honest. He doesn't use a ton of isolation concepts in fact I think I read a stat last season that no OC lined up his two primary receivers on the same side of the formation more than he did. He tries to beat you by flooding you and putting your defenders in a bind. That requires receivers who understand the nuances of how to stack defenders and run routes which isn't Deebo's game. For that reason I don't think this moves the dial for Washington. They obviously think given the cap room they have and the low level of draft compensation it is worth the risk.

I think all 4 will be gone too. But of the four Burden is my least favourite and I am not sure I'd take him for the Bills. I maintain I think he has the hardest transition to the NFL game.

I just don't think what he does well is as easy a conversion to the NFL. Honestly when I watch his tape I get Laviska Shenault vibes.

Burden is overrated. I'd take Golden and Egbuka before him. Burden isn't even someone I'd consider must pick for the Bills at #30. I personally think Tet shoukd be clear WR1, but others are lower and that brings others into play.

He isn't as thick as Tre. But I do like him. I think without the health concerns in 2024 woulda been a first round lock.

Apols that is right. You don't get the cap space until June

Yep, they have had exceptional offensive line health for the past two years. Think their starters played every game in 2023 and only Brown missed one in 2024.

Even in a down year for the D there were 3 or 4 of these. There have been plenty over the years. If you mean in the post season, fair enough.

First one of these I've posted this offseason - using Pro Football Network simulator. I was trying to balance the board (i.e. broadly pretend the PFN rankings are the rankings as the Bills see them) what I would do and what I think the Bills might do. I actually quite liked the results though: 30.Kenneth Grant - DT - Michigan A 1tech in round 1 is definitely not my favourite outcome. Walter Nolen was also there for me (the Chiefs took an offensive tackle) and if it was purely my preference I'd take him. But I suspect the Bills would side with the more natural compliment to Ed Oliver and take Grant. He fills a big need but is not a difference maker at a premium position. 56.Landon Jackson - EDGE - Arkansas I think Jackson is talented I just don't know what he is. I think a big end in a 4-3 base is probably my conclusion and the Bills love tall, long defensive ends and he has more explosiveness than you might imagine. 62.Isaiah Bond - WR - Texas I'm trusting with this pick that for once Brandon Beane follows through on his end of season conclusion that he needs to get more speed on offense. Some people felt his Combine run was disappointing but he still ran a 4.39. That is plenty fast enough. 108.Malachi Moore - S - Alabama This is probably more a me pick than a likely Bills pick given his arms are sub 30". He is a versatile chess piece rather than a down in down out free safety. I've heard him described as a poor man's Brian Branch and that works for me. 171.Ty Robinson - DT- Nebraska Probably doesn't get here after his combine performance but it is a strong DT group so some guys will drop and Robinson's relative lack of size despite being 24 and you'd expect as physically mature as he will get might drop him. He'd make a nice 1-2 punch at 3tech behind Ed. 175.Nohl Williams - CB - California Was the first time in this mock a corner made sense in terms of value at the spot. Williams has good size, ran reasonably and has some zone/man flex if the Bills want to become more of a hybrid defense. 179.Teddye Buchanan - LB - California Athletic linebacker, RAS monster, who fits the Bills profile at the spot and is probably a better run defender than the guys they typically end up with as coverage 'backers. 206.Jalin Conyers - TE - Texas Tech If the Bills don't bring Morris back on a cheaper that the RFA tag deal then I expect someone like Conyers would be attractive to them. Athletic enough to bring some value as a receiving tight end and while not the best in line blocker in the world I like him as a move blocker. 208.Will Sheppard - WR - Colorado I like him a lot as a late sleeper. Doesn't have a single outstanding trait but runs good routes, shows good understanding of leverage on the boundary and has the length to win at the catch point. Developmental guy but with WR2 upside.