GunnerBill

Okay I like him less at $4.6m AAV.

Yea the void years are a result of covid as much as anything. That screwed the cap for a couple of years and teams are still digging their way out of it a bit. I think they will reduce again in time but the last 2/3 offseasons everyone has been using them. Even traditional cash to cap teams.

I think you are right on versatility. Hyatt is more of a downfield deep ball guy, Flowers can be an all 3 levels receiver. My worry with Flowers is size and thickness. I understand the Steve Smith comparison but Smith was considerably thicker and heavier set and he has much longer arms (freakishly long for his height) which in terms of getting off press coverage were an asset. Zay I really worry about him against any defender that wants to get a bit physical. Doesn't mean I think Flowers is a bust. I think he has a skillset. But I worry that you are going to HAVE to scheme well for him to get him free releases and into soft zones. Ultimately they are both 2nd round talents for me. But I prefer Hyatt because I see a solid translateable skillset. Flowers' is more of a projection IMO

Based on the presser yesterday I still think once they get past the draft they will have conversations about extending Ed. Now whether it happens will come down to can they find a number both sides like, but Brandon often talks about liking to have some room to maneuver in season and the easiest way to create that is an Ed Oliver extension, plus I don't see them going into 2024 with 0 DTs under contract. If I had to lean one way on Ed a week ago I was 60/40 against him being here in 2024. The last 24 hours I might have swung the other way.

I like him more at $3m AAV than $5m AAV. Frustratingly he already costs us $1.25m against this year's cap from last year's contract with its void year. Don't be surprised if this deal has a void year and basically kicks that money over into 2024.

I agree. What I did not want was a new DC where after 2023 we are saying "well maybe a second season with that coordinator..." It is a big year for this regime. Personally I wanted Frazier to stay, but once he stepped down, I understand McD taking it on. The one thing I will say about DCs playcalling compared to OCs is I think the studying the ipad and adjusting is more critical on D than on O because on D you are the reactive side of the ball. On offense, sure you need see what looks the D is giving you and adjust a bit but you are in control. You are the protagonist. To an extent you can make the D adjust to you. Much harder the other way around. But we will see. McDermott is one of the top defensive minds in the league so hopefully it works out.

Agree. Letting a good reporter like Giardi go to keep buffoons bouncing around set like they sniffed too much of something at 7am is nonsensical.

I think part of it might have been that at the time in Baltimore he played standing up like 75% of the time. I think there were a lot of questions around the league about whether he could play on the line consistently with his hand in the dirt and still be an explosive get off guy and set the edge vs the run. The run is still a bit of a concern (he hasn't been a great run defender in New England, but he has improved) but he has absolutely proven that he is one of those rare hybrid guys who can play down on the line, play standing up and rush the passer effectively in either role. Some of those are Josh checking into QB run plays - Dorsey talked about that in one of his Monday pressers last year.

I don't have a 1st round grade on any MLB or IOL in this class. I have Bryan Branch who is a hybrid S/CB and Bijan Robinson. Not sure either makes #27 No, sorry for their 2nd - #38 plus their comp 3rd #100 and say #141. Value wise according to the chart that is about 35 points light on what the Bills should get.

Yea they are the four scenarios.... not sure I agree with your order. I think: 1) Beane stands pat and takes a 2nd round guy at #27 Rationale: I think anyone outside the top 15 is likely doing this. I don't think there is going to be a mad rush to trade up into the late 1st from teams because of the general weakness of the class and because I think all 4 QBs (most likely trade up targets) are gone by this point. 2) Beane trades up to the early 20s for his last remaining 1st round grade Rationale: He did it last year and if ever there was a year to not be worried about giving up assets later in a draft it is this year. 3) We trade back out of the first Rationale: I don't think there is going to be a mad rush to come up for the reason I explained earlier but let's say the Raiders want to get aggressive (McDaniels needs to show real progress year 2 especially after voluntarily giving up a good QB) and the Bills were willing to take a bit less than the trade value chart says - say the Raiders 3rd round comp pick and one of their early 5ths I could imagine a deal being done. 4) A 1st round talent slides to us at #27 Rationale: I only have 12 first round grades. If you include all 4 QBs that gets you to 15. That is a lot of sliding someone needs to do. It would only be an off-field or injury reason and the Bills under this regime have been very risk averse in those circumstances on draft day.

I am not sure I agree with that. Dawson Knox's upside is still relatively unscratched because the Bills don't use him enough. He is open plenty. The last 2 seasons he has been surehanded. They need to throw him the ball more. He is a freak of an athlete. It is a pretty good tight end class this though. The best one since that class in which we drafted Knox. So I do expect the Bills will take one somewhere.

I just spit the truth. It isn't about his views on the Bills. It is about his entire schtick. I have had funnier enemas. Well there is no accounting for stupid...

As I have said 3 times now in this thread I think you can help by reducing volume but this is not just about volume. It is as much about Josh protecting himself when he does run. And he is always going to because we know he calls his own number and we know he will do whatever it takes. Even if Josh were to only average 1 run a game in 2023 he has to get down or get out when he runs.... and I am not sure that will ever be him. He is always going to fight for every inch whether that means hurdling, stiff arming, diving.... it is just who he is.

NFLN is letting people go? Can I make a suggestion? Kyle Brandt.

But this is a pretty bad receiver draft. It is bad draft period. Sure there could be a late round star (Thomas was a 2nd rounder, not really a late pick) but banking on that is not sound IMO.

No OC would change Josh's competitive desire.

Not Meyer. The other two I think I lean Van Ness... but could take either. I think Van Ness will be gone. Meyer is 50/50. I think Campbell will be there.

And this rookie WR class doesn't have any sure bets to be good early in any event. If they are looking at the draft they likely are not getting massively better at receiver in 2023. Maybe a bit deeper behind Stef and Gabe but my guess is that remains your starting pair.

Hyatt over Flowers. If Hyatt wins he is the pick. If he loses Campbell. Sorry if that is a complicated answer!

He was hurdling players in 2021 too. 2020 yea I guess, there was less of it, but he still was bad at sliding and getting out of dodge. I just think it is him. You can reduce the volume of it required. But after that it is on Josh Allen and he is just always gonna be that guy. I think McDermott and Beane and us fans are just gonna have to accept it is part of the Josh Allen experience.

Allen isn't to blame for the amount he had to run. The fact he almost never slides... that is on him and only him.

Yes. This thread was after this season. I still feel that way. Gabe Davis is a low end #2 but he is a #2. It doesn't mean I want him to be the Bills #2. But he has production. He is just not a chain mover type of #2 receiver. He is a big play guy and not a conventional one because it isn't break out speed. It is good body control, a good release package and an ability to run a certain package of routes - especially the post and comeback concepts - well. Someone hit the nail on the head earlier, in an elite receiving corps he is your #3 outside guy who can also play some big slot. And people want the Bills to have an elite receiving corps, I get that. But it leads them a little to overreaction. I don't think the Bills will pay Gabe, but someone will. He will get a decent FA deal this time next year commensurate with being a mid to low end #2 receiver. The Michael Gallop deal, plus a bit for 2 years inflation. That is a different point and I see that argument.

Agree if you can give him better protection and more weapons he will see the need to run less. But it isn't just volume. It is about being smart when he runs. It is about getting down. And whether Josh runs once a game or 5 times a game when he takes off he is going to fight for every inch. He has said it himself... he likes getting hit it get him going. I don't think he is ever gonna ba a "see the first down marker and get down" guy. The competitor in him is always going to risk a hit for an extra yard. And honestly if you take that out of him is he the same guy? It is just a reality we are going to have to learn to live with IMO. Though no doubt getting a better supporting cast might at least reduce the volume.

It is on Josh and frankly I am not sure you can change him.

I think I agree. Leslie took way too much heat for me but McD is one of the best defensive minds in football and was an excellent play caller as a DC. But I'm not a fan of Head Coaches calling plays. If you are Andy Reid, fine. Almost anyone else.... meh.