GunnerBill

The Bills didn't turn up in that game. It was just a total no-show from top to bottom. Personally, I just throw that game out as a signal of anything. It sucks that it happened in a divisional playoff round but that game indicates nothing except for the Bills stunk it up on the day. McDermott was involved in defensive strategy throughout. He only took over play calling once.

I agree although the defense played well against Miami in this past wildcard round too. I know it was only Skylar Thompson but they had like 1 drive that went for more than 30 yards all day despite the offense and the special teams putting the defense in a hole repeatedly. They played very poorly v Cincy.

Hmm. I see the Spencer Brown likeness, but Spencer Brown was a raw player with many fewer collegiate starts where the lack of pass protection technique and anchor was a concern but you could still see ceiling and he went round 3. I think Freeland is as technically deficient in pass pro (maybe even moreso) and is a four year starter. I have a 4th round grade on him. I know he will probably go before that, but I sincerely hope it isn't to the Bills. I hate his BYU film as much as I hated his senior bowl.

Other than "Freeland" I'm lukewarm on him and wouldn't take him in round 2 I agree with every other word of this post and I commend it to the board!!

I don't think he plays as fast as he tests. I confess I was surprised by his testing scores. I don't think he is "slow" but I think the testing scores don't quite match the eye test. That is my feeling too. I think Jack Campbell is going to be a good NFL linebacker. I think he is probably the surest bet of the top 3 linebackers, but Sanders and Simpson have higher ceilings IMO.

I think schematically it won't change a lot. You are right, IMO, that the move towards more cover 2 and cover 4 is just the way the NFL has gone. The Bills played more cover 1 and cover 3 the first 3 years of McDermott and Frazier, have played more cover 2 since.... but that is consistent with league wide tendencies. As for all the simulated pressure stuff that Cover 1 talks about... I mean we have done a ton of that since McDermott has been here. I don't think I have seen any other team do as much simulated double A gap blitz as the Bills have done walking Edmunds and Milano up. Indeed, I wonder if they might even have overused it to the extent that teams see it and go "meh, they drop out of this look far more than they come from it, let's just run our play if this is the one time they come our QB can eat the sack and live for another down." Where I do think people are right there might be a change is I think McDermott is probably (if his history holds) a more aggressive play caller than Frazier. He will likely send 5 more than Leslie did (although the issue with that is the Bills have been a really bad blitzing team.... you think of a big play against in the last 3 or 4 years chances are the Bills sent 5) but he isn't going to be blitz heavy. That wasn't his defense in Carolina when he was successful. They did more of it his last year there, but that was in part because he had 3 rookies starting in his secondary I think and he was trying to force it out quick. I think back to the 2020 season too when our D started the year cold and then McDermott spent some time with Leslie on it during the bye and the change we saw from then (the Seattle game sticks out) was the linebackers coming downhill much more. That I think will be a bit more of a feature with Sean calling plays than it was. But I didn't want wholesale changes to the defense and I don't think we will get wholesale changes. It will be tweaks schematically and the playcalling will be different because every playcaller is different and has their own tendencies. That might also help especially early in the year - there is a chance teams had got a beat on Leslie's playcalling tendencies with this group and will take some time to see how McDermott responds in big situations - 3rd down, goalline etc... but personally I think the much bigger factor last year for some of the more vanilla looks was the injuries on the backend. It's hard to do all the disguise stuff the Bills have done previously when you start 7 different safety tandems over the course of 18 games (and at least four different corner combos too).

My point is very simple - high levels of variance are common among #2 wide receivers.... that point is proven. Add to that 3 out of 4 100 yard games Williams had were when he was the #1 in Keenan Allen's absence. I am not arguing Gabe is better than Williams. Or that the Bills shouldn't be trying to upgrade Gabe. But your point on consistency only makes sense if Gabe is considerably less consistent than his peers and he is not. He isn't as good as a lot of other #2s.... but that is a different point. His inconsistency is common among #2 receivers because their usage is so dependant on other factors - game plan, opposition coverage assignments etc.

Agree if they draft Campbell you have to make some modifications to what you are asking your linebackers to do.

The Athletic did exactly that poll (I think minus owners) last year. He came 2nd to Mahomes. He was a strong second, it was by no means a landslide, but Mahomes was 1st. I think it might even happen post draft. Like the Falcons trade of Julio a couple of years back.

It was just once.

Rex Ryan.

Luke Schoonmaker, TE, Michigan Byron Young, Edge, Tennessee

He did that once. Once. The Chargers game Josh's first start. Overall though, I agree. McDermott and Frazier are both Jim Johnson guys. We are not going to see massive changes. It will look a bit more exotic than last year - especially with coverages - because the Bills defense which is usually the most sophistocated in the NFL on the backend with lots of disguise and different looks for a QB had to be simplified in 2022 due to the injuries in the secondary. But that would have been the case with Frazier still here too. The reason they were more vanilla last season was their guys were hurt.

He is. Like most WR2s. That is the point. His highs are higher. His lows are lower. That is the point. Most of them have significant varience.

I was speaking to one of my relatively connected draft geek buddies at the weekend. I asked him if I set the over/under on 1st round corners at 5.5 what would he take (and Branch does not qualify) he said the over because "it's the only premium spot that has lots of good players." He thinks as many as 7 could go - Gonzalez, Witherspoon, Porter, Smith and Forbes are locks in his mind. Then he thinks Banks, Stevenson and Phillips are all "in play" as late 1sts.

@Shaw66 knows what consistency is. What he is saying is "Gabe's consistency (or lack thereof) is actually pretty typical for #2 receivers. For example, let's take Mike Williams of the Chargers. I think most Bills fans would say they'd swap Gabe for Williams straight up if offered the choice. He got a 3 year $20m AAV deal from LAC last spring. Let's compare their 2022 seasons. Williams played 13 games (5 of them as the #1 in Allen's absence) had 895 yards, 4 TDs (average of 69 ypg) Davis played 15 games (all as the #2) and had 836 yards and 7 TDs (average of 56 ypg) Davis had 2 games under 20 yards Williams had 4 games under 20 yards Davis had 9 games between 21 and 70 yards Williams had 2 games between 21 and 70 yards Davis had 4 games over 70 yards, but only 1 over 100 yards Williams had had 7 games over 70 yards, and 4 100 yard plus (worth saying 3/4 100 yard plus came in Keenan Allen's absence when he was essentially the #1) So I think what you'd conclude is that there is actually greater variance for Mike Williams than Gabe Davis. Williams had more big games but more invisible games. Gabe had fewer invisible but fewer difference maker games and was more middling. I think that was Shaw's point. People presume Gabe is way out kilter against other #2s because of his variance and actually it is not that unusual. It is guys like Tee Higgins and Jalen Waddle who are actually the outliers in that they both basically had one bad game and otherwise made an impact most weeks. But remember both of those guys were drafted as #1s and the guys they currently play 2nd fiddle to joined their teams after them (Chase through the draft and Hill via trade). The Bengals are already struggling to decide what to do with Tee (pay him when Chase comes up a year later? Trade him now for what they can get? Let him play out a 4th cheap year then let him walk and take a 3rd round comp pick?). Miami are likely having similar conversations - because the Hill deal is not easily escapable for another 3 seasons. I repeat - I am not saying the Bills shouldn't be seeking to upgrade at receiver - they should. I'd love a #2 that upgrades on Gabe. But some of the criticisms of him are not actually looking in context at what being a #2 receiver on a team with a good QB really looks like the majority of the time. Maybe it is because we saw the Dolphins x3 in 2022 and the Bengals were the team that knocked us off? But I think people saying "Gabe isn't a number 2 receiver because look at this variance!" are actually not looking at things in the proper context. Gabe Davis is a #2 receiver. He is a middling to lower end #2, but he is a #2, even if I would like the Bills to have a superior #2 option (I actually think they should start be featuring Knox more than Davis... Knox is the second best weapon on the team and they simply have to get him the ball more).

Glad they are focussed on the important stuff.

Smith in round 5 would be a hell of a pick. He'd be incredible value there. I think he will go day 2.

I totally missed that 😆. You know what they say about big hands.......

No. No they won't.

When you have an established #1 you are paying and a QB you are paying it doesn't make sense to pay a #2. My preference has always been the Steelers model in the 00s and 10s. They had Santonio Holmes as their #1 and still drafted Mike Wallace in the 3rd and Emmanuel Sanders in the 2nd in the next couple of years as well as some fella name Antonio Brown in the 6th round. When they transitioned from Wallace as the #1 to Brown as the #1 they still took Markus Wheaton in the 3rd in 2013; then (former Bill ) Dri Archer in the 3rd and Martavius Bryant in the 4th in 2014; then Sammie Coates in the 3rd in 2015; then JuJu in the 2nd in 2017; James Washington in the 2nd in 2018; Deonte Johnson in the 3rd in 2019. Which meant even when they transitioned away from Antonio Brown they had some pieces in place and Johnson became their #1 (at least by pay and targets), Claypool was taken in the 2nd, Pickens in the 2nd, Calvin Austin in the 4th.... they just continue taking shots. Not all of those have paid off as you will see looking at the names. But they have consistently had young talented receivers in bulk on the roster and you only need 1 or 2 to break out. It is why I am critical of Beane having been here 5 drafts now and the earliest he has drafted a wide receiver is 4th round. Even with Stefon Diggs on board they should be taking those shots early and often IMO. Not spending day 2 picks on running backs!!

Jonathan definitely has some burst and bend off the edge. Intriguing player. I think there is a lot of rough edges. Against the Bears he was either making a play or not even lining up in the right spot and there wasn't much in between! But I'm glad the Bills are going to try and develop him. He was the #1 overall pick in the CFL draft, he isn't without talent. Just a lot of teaching to do to turn him into a bona fide NFL player. Agree with almost all of this, except I don't think they should rush to extend Daquan. He was excellent for us last year but he will be 32 by the time he hits FA after next season, and he didn't have a huge market when he was 30 so I think they are right to take their time and let it play out with him. If they want him back after 2023 I am sure they will be able to make it happen. But they should be conscious "the wall" can't be super far away for him.

And Jacksob was a run down the field and chuck it deep guy. Skillset wise he was much more Hyatt than Flowers. Flowers is trying to be a Stefon Diggs win at all 3 levels guy with Desean Jackson size. Also worth saying I think Jackson went in the 2nd didn't he? That is where Flowers belongs to me. But poor draft he might get pushed up.

I mean the "up to" could mean heavily incentivised. That is fair.