GunnerBill

Maybe he isn't with teams and I usually don't include the guys everyone has cottoned onto. However, I am still seeing more hype for guys like Stevenson and Brents than I am for Rush and I think he is better than those guys.

Me too. I just never saw how his skillset translated.

And McDermott was frustrated too. He alluded to it in pressers and there were multiple weeks where Knox would have designed plays in the first 15. Which suggest the HC badgering the OC all week about using him more.... the problem was as soon as the script was done they got away from him again.

They indicated after the draft that he was on their long list of considerations at the spot they took Groot. I forget the exact wording but it was basically they were not saying they would have taken him if Groot wasn't there but he was someone they had talked about in that spot. I think they had either a 1st or an early 2nd on him. I don't think Basham was a reach for need as some people have suggested. I think he was a terrible talent evaluation.

I am on record as not thinking this is the strongest draft I've ever seen (understatement). But there are still a few guys that as I have worked through the tape have taken my eye as potential sleepers. This thread in previous years has been where I've highlighted the likes of Robby Anderson, DJ Reed, Juwan Johnson, our own Tyrel Dodson and Jaylen Watson, the Chiefs 7th round rookie corner who started in the Superbowl. So here is my list for this year's draft (grades are where I have them not where I necessarily think they will be drafted): Jose Ramirez, EDGE, Eastern Michigan 4th round grade Ramirez flashed for me in the East-West Shrine game back in January. He is just a natural pass rusher. Love his explosion, love his rip move and when he gets those long arms on blockers they find it difficult to get back into the down. He is an older prospect, will turn 24 right after the draft, but that means he comes in as a man ready to go. He is probably a situational pass rusher at the next level in sub packages rather than an every down starter but I expect a team to take a swing maybe around the round 4 comp pick range. Darius Rush, Cornerback, South Carolina 2nd round grade It is rare I include someone on a sleeper list that I am this high on but even after impressive display at the Senior Bowl the hype train has been slow to kick into gear for Rush. He ran a 4.36 at the Combine, he has size, super long arms and he is aggressive at the catch point. Okay he doesn’t have the quick twitchy feet you might ideally want and maybe he is more of a zone guy than someone who can mirror receivers in man coverage, but I think this is a plug and play outside corner at the next level. Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Wide Receiver, West Virginia 5th round grade The reasons to like Ford-Wheaton are obvious. He is 6’4, ran a 4.38 at the Combine, has long arms and really good hands in contested catch situations. The reasons to dislike him are the route running which is imprecise, the route tree which is non-existent, and the fact that he doesn’t seem to play to his speed or separate that well. But he must be worth a punt for someone because if you can coach him up he can be a monster. Jalen Graham, Linebacker, Purdue 5th round grade One of my favourite players in the draft and the consensus on him seems to be he could even go undrafted. But man does this guy play with energy and passion. He is like a cannonball firing at the snap and when he hits you know you have been hit. He also displays good coverage skills as a former safety, especially in zone. You might need to commit some time to his development but this kid can play. Trey Dean III, Safety, Florida 4th round grade Another that I know I am higher than the consensus on, but I love him. He is probably too easy to manipulate in coverage to be an every down starter early, but he can be used as a matchup weapon in the passing game. I think as a sub package dime he could cover some of the league’s more athletic tight ends and even match up with bigger slot receivers. Jordan Mims, Running Back, Fresno State 6th/7th round grade Jordan Mims isn’t going to wow anyone with speed, he isn’t a power back either, but he is the kind of guy who can carve out a niche for himself in the NFL as a receiving back on 3rd down. He has good vision both when rushing and running after the catch and he has some return value. Kid has a chance to stick on a roster somewhere and make an impact. Chandler Zavala, Guard, North Carolina State 3rd round grade I only watched Zavala this week after a friend messaged me on the back of his pro-day. Zavala wasn’t even invited to the Combine but did play at the Shrine game. He wasn’t one that particularly took my eye that day either but watching his film I like this guy. I think he is a better pass blocker than run blocker, but he has nice nimble feet, he can move when he gets out in front and he uses his hands well. The only negative is his age - he is already 24 - but I think he can start in the NFL as a rookie. As ever the invitation is for people to flame away / disagree or add their own! Last year Pacheco, Woolen and Malcom Rodriguez were all mentioned by posters in the sleeper thread.

It was first half of the year. Less so second half of the year when we became more of a station to station offense.

And I will repeat what I have said elsewhere, the one part of the field where the Bills treat him as a top tight end - the redzone - he performs like a top TE. In the past two years 6th among TEs in redzone targets, 5th in receptions, 3rd in touchdowns. And that part of the field you do see teams game plan for him. He sees some corner coverage in that part of the field because teams know he is a threat. If the Bills uses him more between the 20s it would pose defenses a different question and they'd have to start adjusting.

People misunderstand BPA. BPA can mean "who is the single highest grade on our board". But it rarely does. It only tends to when a team has a player sticking out. So when the Bills told you in 2021 that Basham was BPA by the time they got to that spot I believe he was sticking out and even though they'd already drafted one edge their view was that to leave him on the board when they had him considerably higher than everyone else left would have been foolish. Whenever you see a team draft a guy and think "they didn't need that player" the likelihood is he was their BPA. Kyle Hamilton to the Ravens last year is another example and, in fact, if there is a team that historically sticks to BPA better than most it is Baltimore. But in the majority of cases when a team goes on the clock they do not have a guy sticking out as BPA. Fans tend to think about draft boards in a vertical sense. "Well Ringo is #27 on their big board so he is better than #28" when in reality they are horizontal beasts. And after the top 10 or so picks you very often will have multiple players in the same tier when you are on the clock and you choose one guy from that tier. Reaching for need is the thing you should never do but taking #29 over #27 is unlikely to be that. Reaching for need means taking someone from the next tier down. A good proxy for the way it actually works in @Chaos's exercise would be to look at the next 5 players on the board at each of the Bills 6 picks. And make a choice among those. That would still be true to BPA because in this example there is no guy "sticking out" because assumption #1 is everyone else sticks slavishly to the order (which definitely won't happen).

Agree I have come to the view that JSN is the first one off the board.

I think he is more Deebo in terms of the short area quickness. I just think he has to be very well schemed because his lack of size and length are limitations. I think it might even have been @HappyDays who had the stat about arm length the other day. Basically Flowers has to be a unicorn at his size and length to be a star NFL receiver.

I think if one of these receivers ends up an NFL #1 it is Johnston. But if any ends up out of the league after his rookie contract it is also Johnston. He is WR3 for me. Addison and JSN are just better.

Nope. It is Jeff Chadiha.

Don't think he has the short area quickness of Deebo. He is more of a long strider. I think the best chance for him in the NFL is to coach him up as a genuine vertical threat receiver. But it needs the hands and the anticipation of the catch point to improve.

He has some issues with hands catches, contested or otherwise. I've never seen someone that size play so consistently below the rim. This is my thing on his size.... the only time he actually uses his size as an asset is with the ball in his hands when he is a tough tackle for any DB. It is true that it is a technical point and can be coached up and the raw ingredients are there. But those are the things teams have to get comfortable with. They talk about smaller receivers needing to "play bigger", Johnston needs to "play bigger too" because he is 6'3 playing 5'11.

Charlie is pretty plugged in. The website itself is borderline unusuable in this day in age but a Charlie Campbell rumour (especially at this kinda stage before we hit proper lying season) is always worth taking note of.

Yea I don't know that I definitely am okay with LaPorta in round 2. But the more I watch of him the more I think there is untapped ceiling there. I don't think that with Kraft. I just think his upside as a receiver is limited.

LaPorta is intruiging.

Yea they gave the ball away a ton v Miami too though. As an entire team we were not at our best in the playoffs this past year.

In 2021 teams were actively doubling him. In 2022 we were just woeful on offense kn the playoffs. Too many mistakes.

I have heard very similar that by the end of last year the Josh-Stef bromance was extremely strained. My hope has been that they can put it back together with some space and time to process and reflect. And I agree even as the biggest Diggs fan going that some of his behaviour at the end of last year was not what you want to see. Even if some of the criticisms he was making internally of the offense were on the money.

I don't only select on standout plays, no. And no I don't agree it is very short sighted. 3 games is normally enough in my experience to get a feel for who a guy is and what his strengths and weaknesses are. If I haven't got a feel I watch more games. I have watched 7 full games of Quentin Johnston for example because I have found him a hard grading job. I am not saying my process would stand up against a full time NFL scout. It is definitely imperfect. But its results over 10 years suggest it stacks up enough to have a reasonably qualified view of NFL draft prospects. It isn't perfect. I miss plenty. So do the pros. If you are trying to turn NFL player evaluation into a perfect science you will likely fail. Or you will succeed and become a billionaire.

That analogy only works if we all have to here all 50 conversations. The reason for thread merging is seeing the same topics started as new threads over and over is laborious and actually buries new and interesting content. I agree there have been times when the balance has gone too far like "you are talking about Stefon Diggs and there is already a thread about Diggs so it must be merged" when, for example, one might be about his social media activity and another is about his contract. Not saying that has happened but just as an example. But we don't need (to give a recent example) multiple threads about how the defense might change now that McDermott is calling it rather than Frazier. That should all be one thread. Just because one person thinks it might mean more 4-3 base and another thinks it might mean more blitzing does not justify two topics.

I have said it twice in the last month. Neither time was it a flex. The first time it was to make a point about how grading is different to mocking. The second time it was to make a point about how mixed up the back half of this year's first round is. I can't help how people take it. But there is never any intention to flex.

Well you didn't take it in the manner it was intended. It was not attempting to say "my opinion is better than yours" it was attempting to say exactly what you said - that it was pretty easy last year to work out who the first rounders were. This year it is a lot harder and a lot less clear cut.

I am not trying to "add value" so much as give people another perspective. It is up to them what they make of it. You can all go and read what NFL.com thinks. You can all go and read what Mel Kiper thinks. I do it as a hobby. I share it on here because generally people are interested in it. You might not be, that's your prerogative. I feel confident enough that I know what I am talking about, but I don't pretend I am perfect or get everything right.