GunnerBill

We don't need to get out of nickel personnel. Because taking Johnson off the field for another linebacker (a position at which we are already thin) definitively makes this defense weaker. People talk like Taron struggles against the run. He is one of the best run defenders on the team.

He was. His leg definitely hasn't been right this year though. I watched him in warm ups at Tottenham and he was not much better than 50% from further out than 40. There has definitely been something going on with him physically this year. I can't be convinced otherwise.

I think they have lost confidence in him to an extent and I have long thought that there is a niggling injury. There was a spell in the middle of the year where he could barely get a touchback off a kick off. I know there are times when the Bills kick short intentionally (although they have backed off that this year with half of their elite gunner tandem gone) but there was a spell in the middle of the season where he managed 11 touchbacks in 28 attempts. It has ticked up since then which might suggest he is getting healthier but I'm convinced there has been something going on physically.

Josh Allen is a true difference maker. Ed Oliver has been right on the cusp the last couple of seasons - this year he was a true difference maker. He needs to back that up in 2024 to get that tag applied and prove that 2023 wasn't just a career year. I am very confident he will and I have been stronger than most on Ed who other than his sophomore season where I do think he struggled, he has always been better than the perception because until this year the bare production numbers undervalued his play. Cook, Kincaid and Bernard are all 1st or 2nd year players who have demonstrated they can be good starters this year. That is great and they are picks we can say Beane has definitely hit on. But they all need to take another step to make the true difference maker category. For me it is these: Cook needs to get in the endzone more. He ended up 6th in the league in total scrimmage yards and had 6 touchdowns (4 receiving, 2 rushing) the guys above him had: 21, 14, 13, 9 and then Nacua (who I'd make the same point about in terms of being a true difference maker, not there yet for me) also had 6. Kincaid needs more touchdowns and he needs to get more value for his catches - i.e. he needs to be used more downfield (I think that is coming under Brady. Weeks 17 and 18 were his two highest air yards per reception numbers all season and I would expect that trend to continue in the playoffs and beyond). Bernard I want to see back it up and improve as the signal caller of the defense while not letting that detract from his splash plays. All three of them have had very good years. But at the same time I don't think any are in that true difference maker company yet. But I am optimistic for all their chances. And my worry before this season was as the Dion, Tre, Matt, Stef, Micah and Jordan core ages out around Josh where is the next core of this football team for the second Josh Allen era? I think whatever happens this Sunday and beyond in 2023 we have seen some shoots of that core emerge. And that is very good news.

I dunno if it is abrupt. I think he needed to show more growth this year as a passer. I think Fields can be a serviceable starter because he will find ways to move the chains but at this point I think his chance to really grow into a true franchise guy is very small. I wouldn't be saying the Bears have to pick a QB if they were selecting 20th in the draft. But they are 3 years in with a guy who still struggles to diagnose defenses and process from the pocket and they are sitting here with the 1st overall pick and another top 10 pick in a draft with some intriguing Quarterback prospects. I'd stay at #1 and as long as I have met the kid and got good reports about him and am comfortable with the character I'd select Caleb Williams. On MHJ I might be slightly where you are in that I don't know I share the "he is the best wide receiver prospect ever" type hype. He is comparable with the best guys I have evaluated, the likes of Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee and Jerry Jeudy (appreciate Jeudy hasn't shown it in the same way at the NFL level but he was a hell of a prospect) but he isn't light years ahead of those guys. However, I do think he is the best receiver in this class. He isn't a perfect prospect. I don't think he is as dominant against man coverage as I'd want to see for a sure fire top 5 pick but you can't guard him in zone. He is too smooth, too good in his release and too precise in his route running. He will find the spot in your zone and exploit it.

Yep. Exactly.

What all the columnists and predictors always miss is the most important asset for any Head Coach is leadership. Schems and strategies be damned. You have to stand in front of a group of professional athletes and lead.

I think Dion will play. Doubt Douglas does.

Any model that tells you Press Taylor is the 6th best offensive playcaller in the NFL is trash.

Yea I have heard that Siriani is on a sticky wicket if this weekend goes badly. We have done this to death.... it is because of the rest of the schedule. The Superbowl is only 4 weeks before Free Agency. That isn't enough time to shortlist, interview, 2nd interview, hire a coach. Then hire a staff. Then do all the self scouting and evaluation. Then work out who you might want to target in FA. You'd have to push FA and the Draft back and other than going into the one month off a year that coaches and personnel guys have mid June to July there is no space. The NFL has created a year round calendar. And it now means there is minimal flex to push stuff.

Agree. Goff is a tad underrated. I think it is because he really struggled as a rookie and so people got this narrative that he sucks in their head and is always propped up by what is around him. But he is a solid middle of the pack QB. Not a star by any means, but a guy who can play realiably and run an offense. People throwing him in with Baker who couldn't stick on a bad team last year and Fields who struggles from the pocket is just wrong.

What does "not having a QB" mean though? Does it really mean not having one or does it mean not having an elite guy? Because of the Bills awful history at the position pre-Josh we tend to think it is Josh or someone who isn't really starting calibre. But the Bills would have made the playoffs at least 2 or 3 times in the past 5 seasons if they had a Jared Goff or a Kirk Cousins. If they had Sam Howell or Dennis Ridder, sure, they'd be drafting in the top 10.

I hate the Eagles more than any team in the league. So them.

I agree with this. Honestly I wouldn't swap players at this point. Come back to me in a year and I might but right now I would stick with Kincaid.

This is all that needs saying. That is the report card on Brandon Beane in two sentences.

I wouldn't take any receiver over a Quarterback as the Bears. That would be a mistake IMO. But really I wanted to comment on Nabers. I spent an hour or so on his film last night. My takeaways: - he plays bigger than his size; - his suddenness in his cuts and ability to hit the jets in the open field is special; - he can run routes but doesn't actually have a particularly developed route tree at LSU; - he has good hands. However, there are two concerns (which possibly take you to the same place). I don't love his release package at the line against press man. His feet seem to get kind of stuck and he isn't the most physical. That might be why he played over half his snaps from the slot. Now I have been burned with LSU receivers who played mainly in the slot at college and went on the excel outside in the NFL - Justin Jefferson - but I do wonder a bit about whether Nabers will find himself limited to a lot of slot work. If you guaranteed me he was going to a Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan I'd be will to guarantee you Nabers is going to be a star. If he ends up in something a bit more boring and vanilla I'm not as convinced. I provisionally gave him a top 10 grade based on the upside. But I think he is DEFINITELY more fit dependent than MHJ is.

Yes I believe they confirmed it before week 18.

If the only two options on 4th down were take a sack or heave to the endzone, sure. But with a split second more patience as Warner indicates he had a first down throw and he comes off it too quickly.

I think a 10 second run off would be sensible. I'm more in favour of that than the other solutions.

I said it in the Coaching thread on the main board.... but as three dominoes to fall within 24 hours..... Carroll, Saban, Belichick that is arguably the three most dominant coaches of this century - Pete college and NFL, Nick college and Bill NFL. End of an era in football coaching.

Carroll, Saban, Belichick all gone within 24 hours. It really is the end of an era.

I am 11 days into dry January. I do it every year but this year I was particularly focussed on it because I did worry that in the final months of 2023 I might have been pretty close to being dependant. The opening of a bottle of wine when I get home / finish work had become a core part of my own stress management. I have found it much easier than I thought, which in a sense is reassuring that I am not as close to dependency as I might have feared.... but also the fact that I don't really feel like a drink suggests that at the end of last year I was drinking through habit not because I particularly wanted a drink and that in itself isn't a great place to be. I don't have any intention of giving up longer term, but post January I am definitely going to try and put some better guard rails around when I do and don't drink the rest of the year. Because it an easily become a crutch.

It really only incentivises them to do that as a post snap penalty after a first down. Let's say Allen had been stopped 2 yards short on the run. Then the penalty Miami committed gives them no advantage. Because it gives the Bills a first down and what you really want there as the Fish is to stop the Bills and get the ball back. So the idea that the hold could have been intentional to stop the clock is really a non-starter. And if you commit a penalty after 2nd down or 3rd down to try and stop the clock you risk giving a fresh set of downs. So that isn't an incentive for the defense. So the only scenario in which a defense can "game" the system is to commit a post snap penalty right after a 1st down conversion.... which means a personal foul. And the refs know what the score is. They are looking out for it. And they are only calling a flag in that scenario for something egregious which probably equates to an ejection and possible suspension and big fine. I don't think many players are willing to take those punishments in order to stop the clock. So I don't think the system is creating incentives to "game" it. That is separate to could a team gain an advantage without trying to game the system (as the Dolphins arguably did)? Which obviously can happen. Whether it is sufficiently serious to create a rule change I don't know. The 4th Quarter timing rules are designed to help create close finishes. That is part of the NFL's objective.

Take the Quarterback. I think they were right to give Fields another run last year. But there is no progress as a passer from the pocket. Move him (you will get a mid round pick), draft Williams (as long as you are satisfied with the person).

Yea I am not surprised Nick Wrong doesn't know the rule. He barely knows his own name.