GunnerBill

In a normal year I think the chances of Wright sliding out of round 1 would be pretty high. We have been down this road before. Jawaan Taylor and Teven Jenkins spring to mind. If NFL teams reach a consensus that you can't play left tackle, you are at risk of not hearing your name called on day 1. To that extent I see where @Beck Water is coming from. But in 2019 when Taylor came out I had 25 either 1st round or 1st/2nd borderline grades. In 2021 when Jenkins I had 22 either 1st round or 1st/2nd borderline grades. The difference this year is I have 16. And while I am not saying I am the absolute authority on these matters the overwhelming majority of graders would agree that this class is considerably weaker at the top than 2019 or 2021. And that does reduce the chances IMO, so equally I see why @NewEra says no chance.

Yes but the idea in a mock is to try and put the pieces together.... every team pretty much has a process and when you understand that process it helps you narrow down what they might do. Everyone knew it was going to be a corner last year, the year before I correctly narrowed it down to Etienne or Rousseau, mocking is about trying to do that narrowing down. Of course a player I have going might slide to them. All the better. But I expect them to stick to their process and their habit and that means it will be a guy they have met with, and more than likely a position that they have specifically targeted.

Yes, but the question isn't about what you want because that isn't the exercise of a mock. There is already a who do you "want" them to draft thread. The exercise of a mock is trying to put the pieces together to work out who they might want. Campbell, I can possibly see the angle. There are no substantive links to the other two that I can tell though.

1. On Skoronski, my exception is guys I think can be all pro guards. I was fine with Quentin Nelson, Zack Martin and AVT in round 1. I think Skoronski has some tackle flex too, and some teams might try him at right tackle, I just don't know that I see him being successful protecting the blindside. Also NFL teams don't always agree with me haha. 2. Interesting, hadn't picked up that Keion had an invite. I think that does increase the chances he is going round 1. I'm not sure I love the fit for the Chiefs particularly I think White is more of a fit in a 3-4 where he plays 5 tech in base then stands up in obvious passing situations. The Chiefs are pretty multiple, but they are more of a 4 man front. But talent wise I can see why they'd like him. 3. I have Hyatt a point higher than FA-U, so by my grading it is basically a wash. 4. Honestly, I don't know what I want the Bills to do if the board falls like that. I'd probably say take the BPA - which by my board is Trenton Simpson, who I couldn't find a slot for in this mock (proof again that mocking and grading are two very different exercises). But I don't love the idea of a linebacker in the first. So I think I'll pass. I have very low hopes of this draft being a transformational one for the Bills. Just don't think the guys are there.

I understand. I don't think there is any likely possibility that I will be "happy" with at #27. But in the mock I am trying to work out what teams might do given that board situation.

That was version 1. About 3 months ago. I still don't like Wright or Flowers much mind you haha. But they are both gone here.

He is a one trick pony, 100%. The thing is it is a valuable trick and the thing he does better than most 9 route guys is track the ball. DeSean Jackson is kinda the high end comparison. He was a 2nd round pick, Hyatt should be a second round pick. And he might be. But in this crap draft he might well get pushed up. I'm interested in what other moves people think the Bills might make in the event the board falls as this did and they can't trade back. Not moves people want them to make. But based on what we know and where we are at, alternative moves that people think they might actually make here. Because Hyatt isn't a choice I love but he made the most sense to me based on what we know about this regime both in terms of what they have done this spring and their history. Think this IS a realistic alternative.

That is still the better play IMO.

He got more than 8 carries three times all season. There have been no contract talks at all with him heading into the final year of his rookie deal and the reason they let Williams leave was about money. Swift is still cheap for a year. They may well ride him this year or they might have him in a jobshare with Montgomery or they might draft a guy to start. But Swift won't be a Lion beyond 2023. On the Rousseau thing, yep, he is the only 1st rounder they haven't "had in the building" and it was because you couldn't have anyone in the building. But you were still limited to how many zooms you could have and the Bills had one with Groot. If we find out between now and the draft that the Bills have had Bijan in I will believe he is in play for them.... but even then I'd be very surprised if it was with a trade up. I agree with a lot of this, but I'd rather have Hyatt who I agree is too much risk in a normal 1st round class at #27 than I'd have either Palmer or Scott who are both 4th rounders to me in the 2nd.

My perception has been that this a weaker receiver class (it is a weaker draft class in general) but that the weakness at receiver is most pronounced in the first two rounds. But given your point re. Dane Brugler (who I am a big fan of, he is one of the best around IMO) I have just done a bit of a compare and contrast my board, his board, 2022 and 2023. I started by counting in my top 100 this year and I also, by an interesting quirk, have 14. I've compared my 14 to Dane's. We have 10 that we both have in that 14.... 4 that we differ on. The four he has as top 100 grades that I don't are my receivers 15, 16, 17 and 18. The four I have top 100 grades on that he doesn't are his receivers 15, 16, 17, and 18. We both have AT Perry as WR14 and the last WR in our top 100. He has a 3rd-4th borderline on him, I have him a point lower on my board as a high 4th rounder. I compared us both to last year as well, because the way to compare the strength of a position group isn't just relative to the other position groups in a draft... especially not when most recognise it as a weaker draft... but to compare it relative to other classes. And it's fair to say Dane and I differed a little more, though not massively, in 2022. In 2022 I had 17 WRs in my top 100, the 17th being my #96 overall player - Khalil Shakir, on whom I had a late 3rd round grade. Dane again had 14 WRs in his top 100 with the 14th and final being Wan'dale Robinson with a 3rd-4th borderline grade (he then did have Austin and Shakir who were my WR16 and WR17 as his WR15 and WR16 and just outside the top 100). The one we disagreed on really was Justyn Ross and he made clear on his write up he had downgraded him because of medicals whereas I don't downgrade people on medicals because I don't have access to the same level of info as people like Dane so I grade them on the tape and then just asterisk them. The other difference we both have is last year I had 12 WRs with at worst a 2nd-3rd borderline grade. Dane had 10. This year I have 7, he has 8. At the very top Dane had 5 firsts and one 1st-2nd borderline compared this year to 1 first and four borderline and I had 4 firsts and one 1st-2nd borderline compared this year to 0 firsts and two borderline. My conclusions from this exercise: 1. It is definitely a weaker wide receiver class at the very top of the draft. 2. That continues to be the case through the 2nd round. 3. While it remains, overall, slightly weaker than last year by the end of round 3 / early round 4 it has evened out much more. I think one final thing to throw into the pot might be that the only guys you'd say had a proper "impact" as rookies last year were the guys I had ranked as WR1-7 (Olave, Williams, Wilson, London, Watson, Dotson, Pickens) and had 1st, borderline or high 2nds on. Dane had a slightly different order he had Pickens WR8 and Watson WR10. But the point being that while, of course, the Bills can draft a wide receiver later in the draft... rounds 3 and 4 might be particularly rich in "value" at receiver the chance that you find someone who can come in and make an impact, compete with Gabe or even win the starting slot job is slim. After their moves in FA I wouldn't particularly say the Bills need at receiver is a "depth" thing. It is an impact thing, they need more guys who can make those difference making plays. So while, I see your point, I think the idea we can take a lower priority position at #27 because there are receivers who might be available later is not wrong, but inherently risky.

He has good hands. But he doesn't separate. That is why he is of limited use in the passing game. I don't think he will end up better than Knox. I don't think he will go 1st round. He will go somewhere in the 2nd I think. I do agree in most year Hyatt wouldn't go round 1 and he might not go round 1 this year either.... I'm just trying to piece together what I think the Bills would do faced with that board. And what they usually do is prioritise the positions they most heavily invest in during the pre-draft process and pick one of those players. Hyatt is a similar level of prospect to where I had Kaiir Elam last year. A highish 2nd round grade that could go back end of round 1 or could go first half of round 2.

1. I don't see Beane trading up for a running back. 2. I don't think they have had Bijan in as far as we know (the Bills meet their 1st rounders). 3. The Lions are fed up of Swift. He isn't stopping them drafting anyone. He wasn't even their starter by the end of last season. Washington isn't a good enough receiver to go round 1. I am all for having tight ends who can do both but to go round 1 a tight end really has to be a receiving threat. Washington is okay in tight spaces in the redzone but he would be the #2 tight end here. That is bad value in round 1.

That is pretty much how I feel about him. I don't expect an OL within our first two picks. Sadly I think you are right and I don't think they see it the same way we do.

I probably have Kincaid going too late. I think he will go before #26 I just think that is his floor. Tight Ends are always difficult to slot in mocks because of both positional value and the different ways teams use them (especially right now with the Shanahan scheme so popular it makes non-blocking tight ends tricky). I absolutely think Green Bay could take a tight end... but if they do Mayer is the fit much more than Kincaid for their scheme. Detroit could take one but then why trade Hock away? Not like they were paying a ton of guys. The Chargers could but they have a bigger need at receiver. Then you get to a run of teams who have established good starting end tight ends - Baltimore, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Giants - and it becomes hard to find his spot. You really need a team who says "screw need, screw positional value, I love Dalton Kincaid and I gotta have him."

I don't think Bergeron is going first round. I like him, I think he is going to be a very solid pro. But I don't think he goes round 1. And I have said elsewhere I am pretty sure the Bills in particular are not going OL round 1. I would be absolutely up for them doing so. But I don't think they will. I do see the Chark comparison on Hyatt. I think that may very well be his kind of ceiling. But if he can stay healthier than Chark that is still a bona fide NFL #2 production wise. He has had a 1,000 yard season after all. I think Hyatt can be a low volume, high production type #2 receiver. That wouldn't normally be a pick I'd love in round 1. I don't love it here either, but in this class I could probably live with it.

Okay here is version 2.0..... post free-agency some pieces have moved. I normally try and throw a trade or two in this one but struggled to find trades I liked enough to make happen. Anyway... flame away!!! 1. Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, Quarterback, Alabama I don’t buy that the Panthers moved up to #1 before they had made a decision on a Quarterback. You don’t make that trade thinking you “might” like one of two guys, you make that move up when you have identified a Quarterback who can be the face of the franchise. I believe Bryce Young is the best in the class, and I suspect that is where Carolina has landed. 2. Houston Texans – CJ Stroud, Quarterback, Ohio State If Young is off the board I don’t think it is an absolute lock that the Texans go Quarterback. If someone wanted to trade up and give them a boatload of picks I think they’d listen, but ultimately I suspect they end up deciding that this is the last of their years drafting in the top 5 and so need to take a shot on Stroud as the man to execute their new Shanahan style offense. 3. Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama This is also a prime trade up spot if a team wants to jump Indianapolis for a Quarterback, but from the rumours I’m hearing the Cardinals want one of Anderson or Tyree Wilson and are not willing to move back so far that both are out of reach. Anderson is the safer of the two and I expect him to be the first non-QB off the board if Arizona stays at #3. 4. Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Florida In version 1.0 I had Will Levis at this spot but that was before the Colts hired Shane Steichen as their head coach. Having seen the success he had in Philadelphia coordinating a multiple offense with a dual threat Quarterback they might feel comfortable swinging for the fences on the raw potential of Anthony Richardson. 5. Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, Defensive Tackle, Georgia I have never bought the “Carter sliding out of the top 10” buzz. I get the character concerns but this draft just isn’t strong enough to let a player of his talent slide. Pete Carroll has never shied away from taking on talented guys with off-field baggage and they have a huge need on their defensive interior. 6. Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, Corner, Illinois The trading away of Jeff Okudah makes it even more likely that the Lions are targeting the best corner in the class at #6. From what I read who that is depends on which team you ask with Witherspoon, Gonzalez and Porter all being ranked #1 on some boards. But the rumour mill is attaching Witherspoon to the Lions most frequently so he is the pick. 7. Las Vegas Raiders – Peter Skoronski, Offensive Tackle, Northwestern In the event that the Raiders don’t go Quarterback they are in prime position to address needs on the offensive line or at corner. Knowing that they are hitching their wagon to the injury prone Jimmy Garoppolo at Quarterback I expect protection is the order of the day at #7, especially as the cornerback depth in round 2 is stronger than the offensive line depth. Skoronski could start immediately at right tackle or inside at guard. 8. Atlanta Falcons – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech The Falcons pass rush has been a disaster for a while now. I thought they should have addressed it in the top 10 last year when they reached for Drake London, they can’t ignore it again. Wilson is a freak and he reminds me of Marcus Davenport who the Saints traded way up to acquire when new Falcons defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen was their defensive line coach. 9. Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson Jnr, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State The Bears could happily trade back from #1 to #9 because they have needs basically everywhere. Johnson is the best tackle in this class and plugging him in at left tackle in front of former Buckeyes teammate Justin Fields as the Quarterback heads into a critical year 3 is a major upgrade on the blindside. 10. Philadelphia Eagles – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa The Eagles don’t have a lot of immediate needs but they do have a future need at edge. Former first round pick Derek Barnett is a free agent after this coming season, Brandon Graham is about to turn 36 and Josh Sweat is a nice player but not a true #1 rusher. Van Ness is more potential than production at this stage but he feels like a fit both in terms of physical profile and character. 11. Tennessee Titans – Broderick Jones, Offensive Tackle, Georgia The Titans are either going offensive line or wide receiver at this spot. I know they signed Andre Dillard as a free agent but he has been a career backup despite being a former first round pick of the Eagles and he can play inside at guard too. If the chance to land one of the premier tackles presents itself that is the direction I think they should go. 12. Houston Texans – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Ohio State The current consensus is moving towards Smith-Njigba being the first receiver drafted and that is understandable. In a draft class with very few sure things he has a high floor and at the very least should be a productive player from the slot. I’m sure the Texans would love to use him as a move receiver lining up all over the formation in their new offense. 13. New York Jets – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson The Jets edge position has already seen a ton of resources during the Robert Salah era but whether it has been injuries, disappointing production, or clunky scheme fits they still haven’t nailed it. When Saleh was in San Francisco they continued to pour resources into the defensive line until they got it right and with the offensive line guys off the board that is what I could see the Jets doing. 14. New England Patriots – Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Boston College Part of me thinks Bill Belichick is just trolling us all but I am going to take the bait with regards to the Patriots love affair with Flowers. Allegedly they spent his top 30 visit teaching him the entire offense, he does have quick twitch acceleration which is a need, and he comes from a non-football powerhouse school in the north-east. A lot of the pieces fit. 15. Green Bay Packers – Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama Someone who is quite plugged into Green Bay told me recently that if Skoronski is still on the board he is the Packers’ guy. The bad news for them is I don’t think he will be. I do think Tight End is in play here but Dalton Kincaid isn’t a complete tight end, doesn’t block and as such doesn’t really fit their offense. When in doubt with the Packers pick a defensive back and they do have a hole at safety that Branch could fill. 16. Washington Commanders – Will Levis, Quarterback, Kentucky Maybe the Commanders really will go into a season with Sam Howell as their starter, but new ownership usually brings pressure to find a Quarterback and if Levis has slid this far I can imagine Washington feeling as though they have to take him. 17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Christian Gonzalez, Cornerback, Oregon Personally I have Gonzalez as the best corner in the class and he would be incredible value here for the Steelers. I think their priority is left tackle, but there isn’t one left at this spot and as such I think they would prioritise the premium positional need at corner over a right tackle only like Darnell Wright. Gonzalez starts opposite Patrick Peterson day 1. 18. Detroit Lions – Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Texas This is the first spot that really makes sense for me for Bijan unless the Eagles take him at #10. A running back, even one as good as him, is a first round luxury but for a team with two first round picks it could be justified especially as the Lions lost their power back Jamaal Williams to the Saints in free agency. 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Darnell Wright, Offensive Tackle, Tennessee The Buccs cut their left tackle Donovan Smith earlier in the offseason and their preference seems to be to move all pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs to the blindside. That would leave a gap at right tackle and Wright could slide straight in and start in front of Baker Mayfield. 20. Seattle Seahawks – O’Cyrus Torrence, Guard, Florida Seattle hit a home run at offensive tackle last year with Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas. Adding Torrence at guard would give them one of the better lines in the NFL and he is a scheme fit for the way they want to run the ball up the middle with Kenneth Walker. 21. Los Angeles Chargers – Quentin Johnston, Wide Receiver, TCU Keenan Allen has been a stalwart for the Chargers but he turns 31 on day one of the draft and missed time hurt in 2022. Mike Williams is an almost certain cap casualty (or major re-negotiation) after the season as his 2024 cap number is $32m. This team needs to look to the future at receiver. Tom Telesco has a type at the position – he values size – so Johnston is the obvious fit. 22. Baltimore Ravens – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia With OBJ in the building and Lamar increasingly looking like he could still be on the roster come draft day I think an edge rusher becomes the priority for the Ravens. 2021 first rounder Odafe Oweh flashed as a rookie in a situational role but recorded just 3 sacks last season despite 6 starts. Smith is a bit of a project technique wise but he is an impressive physical specimen. 23. Minnesota Vikings – Joey Porter Jnr, Cornerback, Penn State This is sprint to the podium time for the Vikings who probably couldn’t imagine one of the top three corners sliding this far. Patrick Peterson left in free agency, Cam Dantzler was cut and their gamble on Andrew Booth in the second round last year despite questionable medicals didn’t immediately work out as he managed just 6 games and ended up on IR. Porter starts day 1. 24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Deonte Banks, Cornerback, Maryland The Jaguars are another team glad to see the corners fall down the board a little. 2nd year player Tyson Campbell had a breakout season in 2022 but the corner spot opposite him was a weakness all year. If the offense keeps scoring then teams will be passing a lot on Jacksonville. Having two capable corners is a must. 25. New York Giants – Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, USC The Giants are bringing back Daniel Jones and Saquan Barkley, but receiver remains a need. Addison’s best fit is in a creative offense that is going to move him around the formation and exploit mismatches. Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka are the perfect duo to exploit his skillset. 26. Dallas Cowboys – Dalton Kincaid, Tight End, Utah If Kincaid gets to #26 he will get no further. Dalton Schultz left the Cowboys in free agency and while Jake Ferguson had his moments as a rookie he is an athletically limited day 3 draft pick going into year 2. Kincaid, in contrast, is a genuine weapon in the passing game for a team committed to putting more around CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott. 27. Buffalo Bills – Jalin Hyatt, Wide Receiver, Tennessee I think with this board the Bills would be very open to moving down, the question is would anyone want to move up? If they don’t I’d lean towards receiver as the pick even though Hyatt is arguably a bit of a reach. The Bills have had a lot of receivers, including Hyatt, in for top 30 visits and that is usually a strong indicator of where this regime are at in terms of positional priority. 28. Cincinnati Bengals – Michael Mayer, Tight End, Notre Dame I think defensive back is definitely in play for the Bengals here, they lost both starting safeties in free agency and didn’t bring Eli Apple back at corner. But they did draft Daxton Hill in the first round last year and the depth of the class at corner might lead them to think they can wait on that spot. They also lost Hayden Hurst in free agency so a tight end that blocks and can be a safety valve in the passing game for Joe Burrow might be too good to pass on. 29. New Orleans Saints – Mazi Smith, Defensive Tackle, Michigan The Saints were not the strongest at defensive tackle in 2022, and that is before they lost both starters in free agency to teams within their division. Mazi Smith is already proven as a space eater but he still feels like he has untapped potential as a penetrator given his physical profile. He’d be an immediate starter. 30. Philadelphia Eagles – Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Alabama The Eagles lost Miles Sanders to the Panthers in free agency and while they have dependable backup options such as Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny I’m not sure any of those strike fear into opposing defenses. To maximise the RPO threat of Jalen Hurts I feel they need a dynamic runner and could use their second first round pick to secure one. 31. Kansas City Chiefs – Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State Frank Clark hadn’t lived up to his contract the past two seasons, but he contributed for Chiefs in the playoffs and his departure means they are thin at edge. They drafted Karlaftis last year and he had six sacks as a rookie but they need a more dynamic fast twitch threat and Anudike-Uzomah from just up the road at Kansas State has explosive burst and bend to hunt down Quarterbacks.

He looked a bit like he had lost some speed last year and if he has that hurts him. If he hasn't he is a good receiver.

Maybe that is the Josh - Stef tension? Has she upgraded?

@Virgil you da man

He doesn't make me tingle.

Played Josh. Monogamy is dull.

Quentin Johnston's contested catch rate is dreadful.

Yea 4.26. The tricky think with his projection was the level of competition. I thought for sure he'd go day 2 though.

I have loved Budda Baker since he came out. I had a 1st round grade on him. Don't think he is an option for the Bills sadly.

Yea he is tha kinda late day 3 running back who ends up having a 1,000 yard season.