GunnerBill

Wasn't your logic I was questioning to be clear. More like theirs if this is the way they go.

So I would understand this more as an argument if the Lions were facing a series of high cost contracts in the next two years, but they are not. They are likely two years away from paying Sewell who is the first of this new breed of Lions that will come up. Put me in the camp that doesn't see the logic to trading Hock for a 2nd and then spending a 1st on his replacement. Tight End is a need on the roster though, no question there, and I do think Mayer might be more to their tastes than Kincaid for the reasons you set out.

If I am Brandon Beane and I am starting from the assumption that Josh Allen is my QB (obviously) and Ken Dorsey is my OC. Round 1 1. Jordan Addison - the best route runner in the class and the Bills tend to value route running above all other WR traits. 2. JSN - highest floor. He is the starting slot day 1 and is going to produce as a rookie so long as he stays healthy. I think he has enough flex to play some outside receiver down the road. 3. Quentin Johnston - it hasn't been their MO at receiver particularly but we know Beane likes toolsy traits guys otherwise. Little disappointed in his 40 time and hands are a huge question mark. If any of those 3 are there at #27 I'd take them almost regardless of who else is on the board. 4. Jalin Hyatt - only if the board falls a certain way and only if a trade back isn't there. He is 1 dimensional but the deep ball is the most valuable of single dimensions and I think the thing that is getting missed a bit by his critics is how well he tracks the deep ball. Not many vertical only receiver prospects I have seen that track it as well as him. Round 2 5. Josh Downs - limited to a slot only but he is a plug and play starting slot for the next 4 years and possibly a second contract too. Again if he is on the board at #59 and we haven't gone receiver round 1 I'd draft no matter what (he likely isn't though). 6. Rashee Rice - only if the board fell a certain way but he is the best route runner of the "2nd tier" guys and as above the Bills value that. 7. Cedric Tillman - have him above Rice on my general board but switch them as a Bills fit. He is a bit Gabe Davis esque to me. Not a big separator but probably more elusive ball in hand (and more reliable hands). Round 3 8. Xavier Hutchinson - again it's route running. He is the best route runner of that tier of guys and while he doesn't pop on tape he is reliable. 9. Marvin Mims - he might higher on their board because he has some speed and big play threat but he drops too many balls and I think they might have had their fill of that. 10. AT Perry - decent route runner, uses leverage well. Again doesn't jump off the tape but has some upside. 11. Tank Dell - not sure if they'd take him in the 3rd but he is a gimmick receiver who can do some of the old Isaiah McKenzie stuff and has some return value.

I like Sanders a fair bit, but no way he is the 9th best prospect in the class. I also just generally think NFL.com grades are always a bit wacky. And I am not sure how much they benchmark year to year. Because when I look at the grades from last year basically only Evan Neal cracks this year's top 5. Which to me is madness (and I didn't like Neal particularly in any event). I told everyone who would listen that Charles Cross was the best tackle in that class. When your grading system says Drew Sanders and Sauce Gardner are the same level of prospect it is time to change your grading system. I just think it is a composite ranking mainly Lance Zierlein and Chad Reuter but think one or two others too and the same guy doesn't do each player so the subjectivity and inconsistency throw things off a bit. I basically ignore their grading. I don't always agree with their scouting reports either but there you are. It's the NFL website so it carries a certain kudos even though there are multiple sites that cover the draft better.

Maybe, but I don't think so. I think the Panthers and the Texans both want Young. I was told Young was Houston's guy way before lying season started. Before Carolina moved up too. If he goes at #1 I think there is a chance that Houston either doesn't pick a QB at #2 or trades out. To trade out they would need someone willing to give them a 2024 first I think because they'd be punting the decision a year. Not sure anyone else is as desperate as the Panthers to do that. My advice would be take CJ Stroud at #2. You have a 2nd first this year to get someone at another position who can help. And if you are not sold on CJ just be open to taking another QB next year if he struggles.

With the 15th pick in the version 2.0 Virgil Mock Draft 2023, the Green Pay Packers select: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa Preston Smith is entering his 30s and Rashan Gary is playing on the option so the need for edge depth in Green Bay is more accute than ever. Van Ness is a local kid from Northern Illinois and he is a perfect character and scheme fit for the organisation. @frostbitmic and the Commanders are now on the clock.

He has some Karlos Williams about him. Upright style, bigger back, not super fast. Think we took Karlos round 5. That is about the right place for this guy too. He isn't a lead back but if you are a team with an undersized speed back as your #1 (we might be) then a bigger change of pace guy isn't the worst idea. EDIT: he isn't gonna be Taiwan Jones on STs as a rookie though. I don't think people realise how good Jones was at his job.

Yea I prefer Simpson but the top 3 picks I could live with. Would be a B- type draft for me.

Most interesting element is he, like me, has heard that if Young has gone the Texans are not locked into a QB at #2. Then today Young declines any further visits after the top 2. If Young is not #1 he is #2. If he is gone at #2 all bets are off. Houtson really screwed themselves week 18. They love 1 QB in this draft - Bryce Young - and he is likely gone when they pick.

Yep. Exceedingly improbable. They reached for one big guy that can't play as well as the smaller guys last year. To repeat that mistake would be to ensure they out out of a job in a year's time.

He'd still be Carson Wentz +1000

I agree. JSN isn't my #1. He is #2 behind Addison. But based on the conversations I have he will be the first off the board.

JSN seems to be the consensus first to go. Then there are a couple of potential WR teams - New England and Baltimore who allegedly love Flowers. And I am sure if the Chargers go WR it is Johnston. They love size. I think Addison is the best in the class too. And I see no route to #27. But I can see a situation where he gets within 5 picks or so. And then is he a trade up possibility if they love him as much ae rumoured? Maybe. I might be talking myself into it (which I usually try and stay away from) because it is the best somewhat realistic scenario for me... but I can see a route.

I don't see value in round 2 either. 3, maybe, and sure round 4. But because there are lots of guys who are value in round 4 doesn't mean you stock up on 4th round picks. Because 4th rounders rarely impact football teams. I'd rather trade up for guys I do think can make an impact (isn't a big list) or trade back and take assets next year.

I have thought that myself in some moments.

I think that is exactly why he WOULD do it. He understand what those guys think and what they value. I'd happily give up a 4th for Addison rather than end up staring at the board as I was in the latest version of my mock. I doubt there are many players in the 4th and below in this draft who will make any impact in the NFL.... even compared to normal standards.

I agree he is objectively a borderline 1st rounder. But that still makes him a top 16 player in this draft. You can only draft guys that are in this class. I wouldn't go up big for him, but the speculation that you could maybe switch spots with the Jags and take him.... I'm here for that.

Fair question. His model is to build from the trenches out. Which is really effective when you have a cheap QB and can plough that money back into your offensive and defensive front. But when you start paying your QB the big bucks that is where your depth and quality is going to suffer first. That said, last time I think the main issue was just that he chose to pay a QB that sucked. Hurts doesn't suck. So let's see how it goes.

Yea they have to go receiver for me. Allen was hurt last year, is about to turn 31 and can't separate like he used to and Mike Williams is not there next year playing on a $32m cap hit. Could they go Kincaid? Sure, they could. He is a receiving weapon. But they have a dire need at receiver. I think both of their starters have holes and I don't expect either to be on the roster after this year. If Johnston is there I am pretty confident he is the pick. Telesco has never drafted a receiver under 6ft before the throw away rounds in 10 years. If he is gone, then Kincaid is more likely than one of the smaller receivers I think. I worry not adding speed outside allows teams to continue to sit at the sticks which was a very effective strategy against them last year.

I think he had a good rookie year. He didn't play a good game in the Superbowl, where he was definitely outplayed by his teammate, the 7th round rook on the other side of the field. The point with McDuffie is I think what you saw as a rookie is pretty close to the ceiling. I agree Elam still has a gap to close. It might even take him two years to close it, and he might never close it.... but I don't think there is that much more to come from McDuffie. I think he will be consistent, but not sure I see how he gets a lot better. And I repeat I had McDuffie graded just above Elam, because Elam was more potential than production.

If it was me (and the way I have done it in the countless sims I have run) unless someone I love has been there at #27 I've tried to trade back there (sometimes multiple times) and then trade up from #59 and end up with two guys between 35 and 50 and an additional (earlier) 3rd round pick. Then you move around the board again in rounds 3 and 4 to try and target specific high floor guys at some of the less premium positions (IOL or TE for example). This is a draft where if I was Beane I'd be constantly looking at trying to match value with need by moving around and target specific guys. It isn't a "let the draft come to you" year.

Yea the most realistic way to get Bergeron is, I think a trade down from #27 into the later 30s maybe. @HappyDays has a theory about the Raiders maybe moving up for Hooker... not sure I totally buy it but if we play that scenario out then #38 for Bergeron is in his window I think.

The question is does Brandon share your bias given that Cody is probably his biggest bust?

When we do these I always try and take a team where I think the answers are not easy, because they are at a critical point of the build or the re-load or the tear down.... that is why Green Bay was on my list. They are in a tough spot. All five receivers on their current roster came out last year.... their own 2nd, 4th and 7th round picks, a 7th round pick that they plucked off the Seattle PS and an UDFA. It is going to be really hard to evaluate Jordan Love fairly or properly in that scenario and equally it is going to be hard to evaluate those young receivers fairly playing with Love as, essentially, a 4th season rookie.

I have genuinely wondered whether the play for the Packers is a good player at a low impact position. Because if Jordan Love is good, fine it wasn't the best use of a 1st, but you have a good player at a cheap price for 5 years. If Love is bad you haven't given him someone to artificially prop him up. And if we lose games this year we might be in touching distance of a better QB next year, and we can get rid of Matt LaFleur... which would be a big part of my plan if I was their GM for real.