GunnerBill

**** Warning Long Post **** It's that time again lads and ladies.... it's time to go on the record with my tape evaluations of the top Quarterbacks in the year's NFL Draft. I have only done the top 5 guys this year because a) time constraints and b) I think there is a pretty clear (and large) gap after these guys to the rest. What I will say is I am glad CJ Stroud plays in the Big Ten because otherwise Alabama, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky was a bit of an SEC lovefest. A reminder of my process for those who are new before we begin: 1. My process is four step as every year: - Try to identify the runners and riders at Quarterback the summer before; - Try and watch each at least twice in live game action on tv by mid season (did not manage this with Richardson who came on my radar later); - From new year work on the film out there on each and start to break down for evaluation purposes - for non QBs on my draft board my rule is must have seen 3 full games minimum. For Quarterbacks I set that number at 5; - Pick up on anyone who came late onto the scene and catch up with their film. 2. I try and balance the games I watch back in the evaluation phase for each prospect. I want to see them at their best and their worst in so far as is possible and against a range of opposition where possible. 3. My grades for each are against an objective scale…. They are not predictions of where players should go in the draft. For example this isn't a great Quarterback class but it isn't anywhere near as bad as last year. I think all of these Quarterbacks might be worth picking in round 1 (especially in a generally weak class, might as well take a punt on the most important position) but I have to grade them not only against this draft and this year but against an objective scale so that in future years you can benchmark other classes - that might be better or worse - against it. So, off we go: Bryce Young, Alabama, Junior Games watched: Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia (all 2021); Auburn, Texas, Tennessee, Kansas State (all 2022) Pros: - Full field reader. Goes through progressions, reads the field, understands how to attack defenses. - Understands protections and was responsible for setting them at Alabama. His combined ability to identify coverages, adjust protections and then narrow down his reads post snap make him the most mentally advanced QB in this class. - Natural creator. Some of the solutions he comes up with under pressure I really like. Had that innate sense of when to just move enough to exploit a passing lane or when the change the angle of his throwing arm. - For a QB of his size is impressive in working the middle of the field. - Stands in the pocket and slides up even against pressure. Sometimes it gets him in trouble and he will need to be careful in the NFL about the number of hits it exposes him to, but he plays the position how it is supposed to be played rather than bailing out. - Good, snappy, fast release when he decides to get the ball out, which makes up somewhat for his moderate arm strength. Cons: - Size. Not exactly an original take but he is small for a Quarterback. Only just over 5’10 and 204lbs he will have to prove that he can withstand the hits he is going to take in the NFL. - His arm is only moderate. I think it is “good enough” to be a successful starting Quarterback in the NFL but he isn’t someone about whom you would say “he can make all the throws.” Those deep outs and corner routes seem to hang in the air and could be fodder for ball hawking DBs. - Holds the ball. There are spots where he just holds it too long looking to force something. He reminds me a bit of Deshaun Watson in that he so naturally creative that he is always looking to create and he is going to take sacks that are on him. - I think you can rattle his normal poise if you can get consistent pressure. It happened against Auburn and Georgia in 2021 and a little against Tennessee in 2022. Suddenly balls start hitting the dirt. - Don’t love his accuracy working to the backside. He seems to loose his feet a bit as he opens his body up and balls can sail or dip on him unexpectedly in those scenarios. Conclusion: If Bryce Young was 6ft2 he would have been the slam dunk 1st overall pick for months and nobody would even have questioned it. He has a natural playmaking ability and can create even when the play looks dead. But the size and the lack of top end arm talent does definitely lower the ceiling. And while he might be a guy who is always fun to watch play I’m not sure he has elite Quarterback potential. I think he is by a mile the most mentally advanced Quarterback in the class (and maybe the most mentally advanced in the last few classes) and he will have no issue adjusting to the NFL game from that standpoint, but I fear at some stage the physical limitations will hold him back from reaching the upper echelons. Borderline 1st/2nd round grade. CJ Stroud, Ohio State, Redshirt Sophomore Games watched: Penn State, Oregon, Michigan State (all 2021); Notre Dame, Indiana, Michigan, Georgia (all 2022) Pros: - Accurate passer to all three levels of the field. Has a nice, smooth, repeatable throwing motion and good, consistent footwork in the pocket. - Throws the ball down the field. Good decision maker who is aggressive without taking too many major risks. Only 12 interceptions on 830 college pass attempts despite averaging 9.8 yards per attempt. - Some big boy throws on tape. Throws the seam route better than any of the other QBs in this class with good timing, touch and velocity and also rarely misses on the post or the fade. - Good size at 6’3, he is on the skinnier side but I’m not worried about his ability to survive contact. - While he can look a bit awkward when he gets outside the pocket he is mobile enough to buy himself some time and some cheap first downs as a runner in the NFL while the game slows down for him. - He can get through progressions on half field reads. Where he has his #1 and #2 on the same side he can get through his options and made the right throw, but needs to improve reading the full field. Cons: - A lot of designed read plays on early downs in the Ohio State offense and when they get to third and medium, third and long and those plays aren’t there he holds the ball too long for my liking. - Not sure how well he diagnoses pressure. Georgia messed with his head some in the CFB semi final with lots of simulated blitzes early and then actual blitzes late in the game and he struggled to identify which was which. - Can all get a bit messy when he has to play off script. He noticeably struggles once you ask him to play outside the structure of the offense including a tendency to roll towards pressure and away from the designed routes in the play concept. - Tendency to be a bit high on some shorter routes which in the NFL can end up exposing your receivers to vicious hits. - Fumbles. 10 in two seasons is way too many. Has to learn to protect the ball when getting hit. - Slight worry that in his two biggest games of the year in 2022, vs Michigan and Georgia he didn’t play his best in the clutch at the very end of the game when his team needed plays in the 4th Quarter. Conclusion: If someone gave me $50 today and told me I had to put it on the QB from this class most likely to be an NFL starter in 5 years time I’d put it on CJ Stroud. His floor is the highest in the class. I expect him to come in and run an NFL offense efficiently as a rookie if required. He has a natural accuracy, good throwing motion and footwork and a real calm demeanor on the field. The worry is that he is Andy Dalton or Ryan Tannehill who is basically the same guy in 5 years time that he is today. If I had a team ready to go where I thought just drop in a capable QB and we are going to be competitive I’d draft Stroud. If I was a rebuilding team wanting a QB to grow with me I’m not sure I would (and that might be why Houston are allegedly dithering). High 2nd round grade. Anthony Richardson, Florida, Redshirt Sophomore Games watched: Florida State, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky (all 2022); Pros: - Excellent arm strength and he shows it off to good effect throwing down the field, particularly attacking the deep middle and generating chunk plays. - As the year goes on I think you see him improve his touch and by the Texas A&M game there are a couple of throws, including one for a touchdown, where he has perfectly judged elevation to drop the ball in the bucket. - Doesn’t seem to lose velocity even when throwing off platform and with different arm angles which can help him in situations where he is slow to process. - One of the biggest surprises for me on his tape was how willing he is to try and re-set his feet and stay a passer when things breakdown. I expected to see him bailing more pockets than I did. - Elite athlete with elite size who is going to be a dual threat player at the next level. Especially around the goalline his legs will be a real weapon and even if he isn’t your day 1 starter there are packages you can put into the gameplan for this guy the way the Ravens did with Lamar before he took over the starting job. - Experience in the zone read, the RPO, running the QB draw…. None of these concepts are going to be new to him and a creative NFL OC will have them all in the playbook. Cons: - Accuracy. His throws are a bit all over the map. Ironically, I think he is more accurate on the deep ball than he is in the short and intermediate range. - Inconsistent process. There is no pattern about when he tries to force a ball into a tight window, when he comes off that route and goes elsewhere and when he exits the pocket. That makes it hard for linemen and receivers to adjust to his tendencies. - He hasn’t quite developed that internal sense or feel for pressure and the internal clock doesn’t go off when he should be moving or getting rid of the ball. - Can be baited by zone defenders in the middle of the field into throwing interceptable balls. Got away with it more often in college than he will in the NFL and he is going to see a lot of complex zone looks as teams try to defend his legs. - I don’t see any real evidence of pre-snap recognition or anticipatory throwing. - While there are some areas of improvement, the Florida State film (his final college game) is one of the worst. Conclusion: Let’s start with this – Anthony Richardson is the worst passer, as of now, of the 5 guys I evaluated. However, his deep ball is up there with CJ Stroud as potentially the best in the class and he is going to be a genuine dual threat playmaker in the NFL as soon as he gets on the field. If he plays as a rookie I expect him to smash RGIIIs rookie QB rushing record of 815 yards. He is more athlete and playmaker than Quarterback right now but he is basically a one year college starter and there are signs on the film that is still ascending. I think you have to allow for the possibility that he is not close to his ceiling yet. Mid 2nd round grade Hendon Hooker, Tennessee, Senior Games watched: Alabama, South Carolina (both 2021); Alabama, Florida, Georgia, LSU (all 2022) Pros: - Prototypical size, good arm to drive the ball on a line down the field and athletic enough that he is going to make plays with his legs in the NFL. - The best intermediate thrower in this class. If you want a guy who is going to find those chain moving plays then Hooker is it. - Excellent ball placement to allow for YAC. You lose count watching his film of how many times he throws a slant or a comeback that a receiver is then able to take for serious yardage. - Good pocket presence. Feels when one side is collapsing and slides his feet nicely, to find a platform to throw, steps up when he needs to and is willing to hang in with pressure in his face and throw the football. - Footwork is excellent. When the offense is on schedule and he has time to set and throw he is as accurate as any of these guys and his feet are a big part of that. - Had responsibility for protections at Tennessee and therefore comes in more advanced in that regard that probably any QB other than Young among this group. Cons: - The Tennessee offense has a lot of designed reads for him and he tends to lock on to his primary read too often. Gives you pause to wonder how much he really understands what he is seeing and how much of it is him executing a “paint by numbers” offense with superior talent at the college level. - Deep ball accuracy. Misses too many open receivers down the field. - Don’t love him when the play breaks down. Don’t see much natural instinct or feel to create in chaos. Tends to get a bit frantic and moves around to no effect. - His delivery is a bit funky and I think faster NFL defenders will have that extra split second to get a jump on where he is going with the ball. - Too many fumbles. 22 in two years at Tennessee. Part if it is his lack of comfort when the play breaks down, part of it is a faulty internal clock. - Not a developed full field reader, which means there are occasionally dropped coverages on the opposite side of the field that he just never gets to exploiting. Conclusion: Hendon Hooker reminds me a lot of Kenny Pickett coming out last year. An older Quarterback prospect (he has just turned 25) who wasn’t a star straight away in college but who had a great final year putting up big numbers through feasting on defenses in the intermediate range. Like Pickett you wonder how much is the offense and how much is him and with Hooker there is the added complication of the ACL injury in November. As long as he recovers well from that I think the floor is pretty solid. The question is how high is the ceiling? Low 2nd round grade Will Levis, Kentucky, Senior Games Watched: Georgia, LSU, Florida, Iowa (all 2021); Tennessee, Miami (OH), Georgia, Florida (all 2022) Pros: - Prototypical size and a huge arm. He looks like a franchise quarterback and has the arm strength to throw to all areas of the field. - Experience operating from under center and executing ‘conventional’ play-action concepts, is efficient attacking the gaps behind linebackers, especially on his 2021 film. - Is asked to read the entire field in Kentucky’s offense and a lot of the downfield route combinations are pro-style west coast combinations, so he should be able to adapt to an NFL playbook reasonably quickly if he can get the terminology down. - Plenty of big boy throws. He throws the corner really well, the seam pretty well, the deep out can occasionally get away from him a tad but he certainly has the arm talent to get it there even from the far hash and when he hits it man does it look pretty. - He is a better runner than you think. Nobody is going to mistake him for a dual threat quarterback but he reminds me of Josh Allen when he scrambles. He gallops in the open field and almost looks for contact at the end of runs. - No discernable reduction in his efficiency when off platform, he doesn’t mind ab-libbing when outside the pocket and is reluctant to ever give up on a play. Cons: - Don’t like the delivery, don’t like the drive through with the hips, and don’t even start me on the footwork. Part of the reason he is inaccurate is almost certainly that the fundamentals of his technique are all over the place. - Has the worst feel in the pocket of these top 5 guys. Not only does he not feel pressure, but he rarely climbs the pocket (even when the opportunity arises), he rarely slides left or right to open a better passing lane and he general gets antsy too early in the down. - There are dimes on Will Levis’s tape. There is a touchdown throw vs LSU in 2021 that is as good as any throw I have looked at from the guys in this class. But the ball placement just isn’t consistent, he struggles with touch. - His field vision is not good enough at this stage to be high end NFL QB. The number of times he ends up taking the short gain when there is something bigger open down the field (and often not just open post-snap but an obvious opportunity pre-snap too) is really frustrating. - Interceptions. He has thrown 23 picks in his two years as the starter at Kentucky. Too often he makes poor decisions and puts the ball in harm’s way. - Regression from 2021 to 2022. His 2021 film is just better. I appreciate he lost his two best receivers and two best linemen to the NFL and this Kentucky not the Alabama conveyor belt but it is a cause for concern. Conclusion – No quarterback drafted since Josh Allen reminds me of Josh Allen on his college film more than Will Levis. And some of the reasons I was a Josh sceptic coming out still apply here. You have to grade the film in front of you and the technique is messy, there is regression the final year and at times the decision making infuriates you. But like Allen, if Levis hits, he is going to hit big (and if he fails he probably fails big). The arm is huge and the toughness is there to see. I just think there is too much to correct. Like Allen this kid is now working with Jordan Palmer. That man has to earn his money to pull off the same trick twice. 2nd/3rd round borderline. Okay there you go folks, flame away!!

We can. But that isn't what the thread is about. He doesn't belong in a thread about busts. He isn't a bust. He isn't necessarily someone I'd want on my team, either. But that is a different conversation.

How dare you? This is an outrage. We are talking about the NFL draft and you are prioritising a knee? Why? You have another one!

Yes he has underperformed for a #1 pick. But the thread is about busting. He isn't a bust. No matter what interpretation of stink I have.

He has had years where his production has been moderate and years where it has been very good. Is a former 2nd team all pro and has been a starter all 9 years in the league. There is no way I call that "stink".

Yea I liked him a lot too. I wouldn't call him a bust either though. He has been a productive #2 receiver. The problem is he was drafted at the point of the draft where you want to be hitting #1s. Clowney does not stink. He has been a good player. Just not a superstar like a #1 pick is supposed to be.

Jadaveon Clowney is a good football player. He hasn't lived up to 1st overall pick status, that's definitely true but if Clowney had gone back half of round 1 nobody would perceive him as an underachiever, definitely not what I'd consider a bust. But you are right the definition isn't universal. Jeff Okudah who the Lions just traded to the Falcons is right up there for me. I loved him. Had a super high grade on him, would have had no problem selecting him at #3 overall like Detroit did and if he was in this draft his grade would make him my #1 player overall. But after 3 years where he failed to stay healthy and struggled to cover guys he is traded away for a 5th round pick and Lions even ate some of his money. Maybe he revives his career in Atlanta but for now he is a massive bust and he is a player I loved coming out. The only other guys I can find since I have been doing this (2014) who I had first round grades on who other than for major injury or off field reasons have been total duds have been Josh Rosen and Vernon Hargreaves (too soon to add Zack Wilson to that list?). There is then a group of Shaq Lawson and Jarran Reed types who were lower first round grades who have only ended up as role players rather than as every down starters, who I'd certainly call disappointing 1st round value but not total busts.

Fairchild went back to school. Kuntz, Wheaton, McClendon won't be UDFAs. I doubt Forsyth is either. Wicks and Gindorff I do not know.

The only one I'd take at #27 is Kincaid and I don't think he will be there. If they trade back into the early 30s and Mayer is there fine. I'd consider LaPorta at #59 depending on him being there and the board. I am not a big Washington early guy. He moves waaay to stiff in the open field. I think he is a great blocker and can be a safe outlet receiver in the pass game. But I don't think other than redzone he is ever going to be a guy teams are actively planning against.

He is more of a box safety, that's true. But I am fine with him in coverage. I think he is a top 25 player in the class and I'd run to the podium if he were there and the rest of this board was the same.

Yea I'm not desperate to draft a DB in the first two rounds but if it falls like this I'm not sure you have much option. I'd agree if it begins to go this way you have to try and trade up or if you can't you have to try and trade out of the round altogether.

I wouldn't be certain I'd take Mingo at #91. There is no way I'd take him at #59. I take the point about Musgrave's floor. I don't really want him at #59 either, but he is the highest on my board of those 4 choices. I think he is the best of them. I have a very late 3 on Wypler and 4s on Mingo and Benton. The best players on the board here are defensive backs IMO the way this has fallen. Antonio Johnson is my BPA, Cam Phillips III is my #2. Darius Rush is my #3. I then have Derick Hall (don't think he is gone) and Rashee Rice. There is then another 8 guys on my board before I get to Musgrave. But he is over a round lower than Johnson and exactly a round lower than Phillips by my grades. Any of these 4 are a reach IMO. But Musgrave is the best of them.

He'd be near the top of my list yea. I have a high second on him I don't have my board infront of my but I suspect he is my BPA.

Those choices? Meh. I'd take the Tight End and I don't love him.

See my response to the "which WR fit the Bills" thread from earlier this week. I made the Gabe - Tillman comparison too. I think he might be a little more dynamic after the catch than Gabe and I'd hope his hands hold up better in the league. But I think they are very similar.

It is only circumstantial evidence until someone can demonstrate why it isn't evidence of what you are claiming. Which I've already done. When you have some evidence come back to me and we will discuss.

Rice and Tillman are still there. Both of them would come into consideration for me at this point. The edge class is thinner here that it was in Mock V1.0 interestingly. DT is an option again, but I don't love this DT class the way some seem to.

My worry with Mingo is that I see too man routes where he seems to be winning the route then ends up fighting for a contested catch. Some of it is QB ball placement, for definite. But some of it is I think he gets a bit lazy at the top of the route.

And if Walter is right about Harrison that means it is down to 3....

That would be a very solid draft indeed. All of those are in my top 30 grades.

Yea I saw that. Is there anywhere where you have a list of the 25?

Have you got a full composite list? Does it have Anton Harrison on it (Walterfootball says he has been in but nobody else has verified that I have seen)? Also does that include the local guys - Bergeron - because they don't count to the 30 do they?

But he didn't accept blame when it failed. Indeed he loaded more and more of it onto the players. He blamed and fired Donnie Henderson. He blamed Doug Whaley. He even ended up turning on Dennis Thurman after the "10 men on the field debacle" vs Miami. Rex never blamed himself. Not ever.

What Einstein has "sometimes when camera is on McDermott he is holding the call sheet and talking into the headset" doesn't even make the standard of evidence, let alone proof. I have explained why and what is going on in those scenarios. It isn't what he thinks. It is evidence of something. Just not of McDermott having taken over playcalling.

I like Boutte's tape (with the exception of his hands, way too many drops). I have a 3rd on him, but he has also already had two ankle surgeries and there are questions about his work ethic. Depending on what teams make of those he could go anywhere from round 3 to round 5 I think.