GunnerBill

Why are you trying to keep picks in this draft? If ever there was a draft in which to give away picks it is this one.

If this draft was a normal draft I'd be with you. I think this draft more than any other I've ever looked at I would be moving around targeting specific guys to try and help my team. If there was a year to play it the way you are suggesting that was last year IMO where that round 2 through 5 range was loaded.

No charges are being brought against him. He is entitled to recommence his football career IMO. We can't treat anyone accused as if they are guilty. The justice system determines those things. No chargers are being brought, the young man should be allowed to get on with his life. EDIT: Don't get me wrong, it was right that he was out of the league while the investigation was undertaken IMO. But if he wants to go back now, he should be allowed that chance.

I think I'd be frustrated with a DB at the end of round 1..... but the mock draft v2.0 we did here last week... with that board at #59 I'd have really struggled not to select Antonio Johnson or Clark Phillips III. They were sticking out BPA by my board and you'd have been reaching down by half a round according to my grades to select another position. I think in that situation you should just say "I am going to take the best football player." I wouldn't even trade out. What is the point evaluating players if someone you were really high on ends up dropping over half a round to you and you trade out so that you don't have to pick him? Forget need. Pick the best football player.

That played a part for sure. But there were drops (Gabe and Isaiah particularly), lack of separation (Shakir) and some predictable play calling that were all factors too.

So your fewest punt stats is a good one, but it is HEAVILY influenced by the first 8 games. The Bills punted 15 times through their first 8 games last year. Fewer than 2 a game. They punted double that amount through their final 8 (30 times). That 30 in 8 games number pro-rata for 17 games would have put us at 14th fewest punts. We'd have punted more than the Falcons. So I don't think it is true to say we don't need help between the 20s. I also think a lot of the reliance on Josh's legs to move the chains down the stretch was because other elements of the offense stalled.

See I have him as QB5 but that, ironically, makes more sense to me than drafting CJ Stoud for Houston. They are a young team still early in a rebuild. They don't necessarily need the guy who is the best game manager here and now. They need someone who with some development can be ready to be really good by the time they have built the rest up around them. And Levis is much more a swing for the fences on upside.

I think both are decent players. But how do they change the paradigm? Mayer is a good solid all around tight end. We have one of those. He is name Dawson Knox and he is much more athletically talented than Mayer and we already under use him. Knox is a better matchup weapon. Running Mayer out there instead of a slot receiver makes our O less dynamic IMO. Washington does bring something a bit different. He is an excellent blocker. But again he isn't as good as Knox in space or ball in his hand. So you want to spend a 1st on an in line blocking tight end who might have a bit of additonal redzone value (where Knox is already a top 5 contributor among tight ends)? I don't think that is good value. Don't get me wrong there are teams for whom Mayer in round 1 makes sense (less so Washington for me, but there you are). But the Bills are not one of them. Kincaid is a different category altogether. He is a genuine bona fide weapon. He doesn't really block. But 12 personnel where Kincaid and Knox are on the field together is a potential matchup nightmare for defenses so long as Dorsey and Allen can work out how to use them.

It is kind of all on Elam to me. If he becomes a true #1 corner for this team it will end up an okay draft. But the next two picks - Cook and Bernard - we are such low value spots that even if they went being good players it is unlikely to move the needle significantly. They'd have to become elite to really do that and I don't see it. I suppose Shakir or Benford could hit big but that is in the realms of a wing and a prayer.

Neither of those are busts. They might both have been poor uses of a first round pick, but neither were busts IMO. McKelvin played 9 years in the league, started 72 games, and was a starting level corner (although I agree not worth the pick they spent). Whitner played 11 years, started 152 games and went to two probowls. That isn't a bust. That is what I mean there HAS to be a way of distinguishing between a guy who was maybe overdrafted, or maybe didn't quite meet expectation, or maybe just wasn't the best player on the board when a team picked and a guy who is a flat out failure in the NFL. Aaron Maybin was a bust.

Whereas I don't have either Wilson or Mingo that high. I have Wilson as a low 3rd and Mingo as a 4th. I think what is happening a little bit with both of them is people are looking for size in a class that doesn't have a lot of it. And they are getting pushed up the board as a result. People are trying to find traditional, outside, X receivers... but it just isn't a class that offers a lot of that.

Or Christian Watson, who was always going to take a bit of time, but had over 500 yards in the final 8 games of last season and you could have had him ready to go by playoff time. I liked Pickens too, but Watson was the guy I really wanted them to consider where they were last year. He felt like their kind of prospect too, raw, but incredible ceiling.

Yea that isn't my definition of a bust. My definition of a bust, from a first round player is a guy who can't play. Jamarcus Russell was a bust. Darron Lee was a bust. EJ Manuel was a bust. Johnny Manziel was a bust. Kevin White was a bust. John Ross was a bust. Those guys who turn out to not even be serviceable NFL starters. But it is fair there are different definitions. Clowney definitely underperformed expectations. But it is unfair to have a single category called bust into which you throw him and Jamarcus Russell IMO.

I had 18 and 4 borderlines last year. 18 ands 5 borderlines in 2021. I have 11 and 5 borderlines this year. It is definitely less likely a guy falls to #27 this year than other years. But equally You are going to get 4, maybe 5 QBs go earlyish... only one of whom is in my 11+5 so there is a chance that pushes some talent down.

I'm not sure "yes, of course" sums up my view. It is "yes" but not sure it is "of course." I think they probably will pick in round 1. But I am not sure it is a slam dunk.

Carson has no knees. His body won't stand up to NFL practice let alone NFL games. And he was last year FWIW. Currently signed to the USFL.

He took over play calling once.

I'd give yourself a pass on Blackmon. He didn't fail for football reasons.

I do have a point system. It isn't exactly the same as the one NFL.com uses, but it's similar. As do all NFL teams but they then have grade ranges brigaded by rounds. I designed it after speaking to a former NFL position coach and it is designed to replicate what teams do as closely as possible. Personally I don't think just spitting out the points means much to anyone the round brigading does. But broadly if you are above a 7.0 on my board you are a first round grade. Bryce Young is the best of these QBs by my grading he is a 6.9. And it isn't incoherent at all. You have to have an objective scale that stands up year by year and doesn't bend by strength of class. For my money that is where the NFL.com grades fail. They tend to benchmark just within a class reasonably well but not well across multiple classes. Hence you end up with Drew Sanders graded the same as Sauce Gardner. Again it comes down to me that grading is not intended as being predictive in the same way that mocking is.

I don't want to fast forward. I want to savour every moment.

Not to me. They need everything. They are in the perfect position to wait and see what falls to them at #9. If it is Carter, they need a DT. If it is Wilson or Murphy or Anderson, they need an EDGE. If it is Johnson or Skoronski, they need OL and if it is Witherspoon or Gonzalez, they need corner. I don't think giving a 1st rounder away again in that scenario makes sense.

+6 hours. Think of me when you are watching.

The OT HAS to be Paris Johnson Jnr, right? He is the best left tackle prospect in the class by far. The question is who is calling? #4 Colts - need a left tackle, but surely going QB #5 Seahawks - got the best left tackle in last year's draft #6 Lions - have the best tackle tandem in the NFL #7 Raiders - have their left tackle, could they trade up for Johnson then stick him at right tackle?? #8 Falcons - have both of their starting tackles locked up on long term deals #9 Bears - why trade back from #1 to spend it all trading up to #3? #10 Eagles - have both their tackles locked up #11 Titans - possibility #12 Texans - just re-set the market for their LT #13 Jets - possibility #14 Patriots - possibility #15 Packers - be surprised, doesn't feel like a Green Bay move despite Bhaktiari's age and injuries #16 Commanders - possibility #17 Steelers - possibility #18 Lions - see #6 #19 Buccs - possibility #20 Seahawks - see #5 Any of those are big, costly moves up for a tackle IMO. And for anyone after that surely too far to go.

The closer we get the more I feel like it will be Addison. Either at #27 or with a small trade up to snag him.

Stroud is a much more naturally accurate passer than Haskins or Fields. I didn't have a 1st on Haskins either. I did on Fields (because of the potential ceiling). I think Stroud is more "ready to play" than any of them. But as I say there, it wouldn't surprise me if in 5 years time he is a Dalton, Tannehill type. Especially if he ends up with the Colts where I think he has a reasonable structure around him and he can be pretty good early. Like Dalton was on those loaded Cincy teams. And then 4 years down the road on slightly less loaded rosters Dalton was still just pretty good, until the arm injury. I think that might be a similar career arc for Stroud.