GunnerBill

I'd fire you.

I think he has to be used in such a specific way. Size wise he is a complete outlier. He would be pretty much the only receiver with arms that short to succeed. It is partly a comment on him and partly a comment on my faith in NFL offensive coordinators. If my Head Coach was Kyle Shanahan I'd have Zay Flowers as my WR1. But when I look at how I think you have to use him - as a gimmick player you need to do a bit of everything with - I just don't know how many NFL offenses truly feel comfortable with that.

Ha, if I do it is accidental. I don't have a college football rooting interest.

4.42

Deebo would not be the player he is away from Kyle Shanahan IMO. Doesn't mean he'd suck but in most other offenses he has less production. And other than 2021 his production isn't blowing your socks off in any event (I know some of that is health related).

A little later than normal, apologies I normally try and get this out the weekend before the draft, but work has meant I am cutting it a little finer this year. I have done this the past few years, it just sorts all my draft stuff into one convenient place for people to find and acts as a useful historical record as well - both for good and bad. I will start by saying this has not been my favourite draft class to evaluate. As soon as I started looking at in January I didn't like it. A lot of older prospects who I feel are kinda physically maxed and still don't dominate on film as I'd want them to. Then at most positions I just don't see the stars. It is like a draft class where someone has removed the top 10 prospects. So the guys you are starting with and who will make up the top 12 picks or so are guys you really think should be later day 1 picks. I've ended up with 136 players graded, which is fewer than the last 3 years, normally I'm up around 145-150. That is partly a time thing, partly there were a few I started watching hoping to like them enough to sit through 3 games and after 1 game had written UDFA and moved on. That said it doesn't leave me any less excited for the draft itself. The intrigue, the team building strategy, the window it gives you into what GMs and coaches really feel about the state of their rosters and their chances to win in the year to come. It's always fascinating. I can't wait for tomorrow night. As for my draft stuff.... the already published products are: My 2023 Quarterback evaluations My 2023 draft 'sleepers' Gunner's FINAL mock draft 2023 As ever the new content that I pull together for this thread is: A full list of my 11 first round grades; An analysis of my top 100; Positional top 5s. [Key: * denotes medical concern; ^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern] First Round Grades: 1. Jalen Carter^, DT, Georgia 2. Will Anderson, DE, Alabama 3. Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech 4. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon 5. Paris Johnson Jnr, OT, Ohio State 6. Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois 7. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas 8. Peter Skoronski, OG, Northwestern 9. Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson 10. Joey Porter Jnr, CB, Penn State 11. Brian Branch, S, Alabama I then also have four borderline 1st/2nd grades: 12. Bryce Young, QB, Alabama; 13. Jordan Addison, WR, USC; 14. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State; 15. Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson Analysis of the top 100: Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:- Quarterback: 5 Running Back: 5 Tight End: 6 Wide Receiver: 14 Offensive Tackle: 8 Interior Offensive Line: 11 Total offensive players: 49 Interior Defensive Line: 9 Edge Rusher: 14 Linebacker: 7 Corner: 14 Safety: 7 Total defensive players: 51 Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100: I will start the analysis with this.... my 100th player is almost a half round later this year than they were last year. It was kind of 2/3s down my 3rd round grades last year, this year it's about a 3rd of the way into the 4th. It's actually strange because if you'd asked me, for example, "do you like the defensive tackle depth?" or "do you like the safety depth?" then in isolation I'd say "no." But actually the numbers in the top 100 are not that bad. Equally I would say I do like this tight end class, but what that really means is I think there is up to 6 guys who could end up as TE1s in the NFL (some need different systems than others, but in the right spot there are 6 guys that could end up starters). I think it drops off after that until you get the cluster of guys a bit later (outside my top 100) who could be decent TE2s. I have fewer round 1 grades, but also round 2 and round 3 grades this year. But considerably more 4th rounders. It's the draft for the role player! Where do I see the strengths of the class? I think corner through days 1 and 2 is the position with the most potential bona fide NFL starters. Interestingly I think corner then drops off a bit in day 3 and there are not a lot of guys I see being taken late who can be Jaylen Watson types, one of my sleepers last year who was picked by the Chiefs in round 7 and started as a rookie in the Superbowl, or even Dane Jackson, Christian Benford types. Edge probably has above average depth of guys I'd normally consider day 2 talents, but you are probably going to see the likes of Keion White and Will McDonald who are raw, will need to be used differently in the NFL to college and yet are 24 year old rookies go in round 1. Which means by the time you get to the spot where the depth should be good the class could already be hollowed out somewhat. The same might happen at receiver where there is a bunch of guys who might be good WR2s and WR3s in the NFL or might be depth receiver who can play teams... but if you are looking for that archetypal #1 X receiver in this class, they really are not there. There is good interior offensive line depth. I have 16 guys that I'd be willing to consider between mid round 2 and end of round 4 / start of round 5. Conversely the tackle depth drops off quickly. I have it as Johnson and Jones (if, as I do, you think ultimately Skoronski is a guard) and then Harrison, Wright and Bergeron. After that there are only two more guys I'd consider before round 4 - and neither is Dawand Jones btw, who only just creeps into my top 100. Where is it particularly weak? Safety for a start. I only have Brian Branch and Antonio Johnson with grades in the first two rounds. S3 this year would be S7 in last year's class for example. Linebacker is another weak spot. I think part of the reason we have talked so much about Jack Campbell, Trenton Simpson and Drew Sanders in these parts is that there is a big drop after them. I basically have Daiyan Henley sort of floating out on his own as a 2nd/3rd borderline and then nothing else at that spot until the end of round 3. LB5 this year would have been LB10 last year. It does mean teams, like the Bills, who have a need at the spot feel pressured to reach either in round 1 (still think and hope they will resist that temptation) or trade up in round 2 (possible). Also running back where I do have a first rounder in Bijan, which is often not the case, but then I only have two more guys before the very end of the 3rd. I don't even love the later running back depth this year compared to some others. A bit like with receiver I think there are some backs later who can be role players, but not seeing those late round starters that have come out of some other classes - although more than any other position it is one where a late round guy can come from almost nowhere - so very much remains to be seen. The class does level out a fair bit by the end of the 4th round and the day 3 depth overall probably isn't that different to a normal class. But if a team manages to ace this draft and select a franchise changing class then that GM deserves a hell of a lot of plaudits. Because it is going to be tough sledding. Positional Top 5s: (round I have them graded in parenthesis) Quarterback 1. Bryce Young, Alabama (1st/2nd) 2. CJ Stroud, Ohio State (2nd) 3. Anthony Richardson, Florida (2nd) 4. Hendon Hooker*, Tennessee (2nd) 5. Will Levis, Kentucky (2nd/3rd) Running Back 1. Bijan Robinson, Texas (1st) 2. Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama (2nd) 3. Zach Charbonnet, UCLA (2nd/3rd) 4. Devon Achane, Texas A&M (3rd) 5. Zach Evans, Ole Miss (3rd/4th) Wide Receiver 1. Jordan Addison, USC (1st/2nd) 2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba*, Ohio State (1st/2nd) 3. Quentin Johnston, TCU (2nd) 4. Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee (2nd) 5. Josh Downs, UNC (2nd) Tight End 1. Dalton Kincaid, Utah (2nd) 2. Michael Mayer, Notre Dame (2nd) 3. Sam LaPorta, Iowa (3rd) 4. Darnell Washington, Georgia (3rd) 5. Luke Musgrave, Oregon State (3rd) Offensive Tackle 1. Paris Johnson Jnr, Ohio State (1st) 2. Broderick Jones, Georgia (2nd) 3. Anton Harrison, Oklahoma (2nd) 4. Darnell Wright, Tennessee (2nd) 5. Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse (2nd) Interior Offensive Line 1. Peter Skoronski, Northwestern (1st) 2. John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota (2nd) 3. O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida (2nd) 4. Andrew Vorhees*, USC (2nd) 5. Steve Avila, TCU (2nd) Interior Defensive Line 1. Jalen Carter^, Georgia (1st) 2. Bryan Bresee, Clemson (2nd) 3. Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh (2nd) 4. Mazi Smith, Michigan (2nd) 5. Adetomiwa Adebawore, Northwestern (3rd) EDGE 1. Will Anderson, Alabama (1st) 2. Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech (1st) 3. Myles Murphy, Clemson (1st) 4. Lukas Van Ness, Iowa (2nd) 5. Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State (2nd) Linebacker 1. Trenton Simpson, Clemson (1st) 2. Drew Sanders, Arkansas (2nd) 3. Jack Campbell, Iowa (2nd) 4. Daiyan Henley, Washington State (2nd/3rd) 5. Henry To'o To'o, Alabama (3rd) Corner 1. Christian Gonzalez, Oregon (1st) 2. Devon Witherspoon, Illinois (1st) 3. Joey Porter Jnr, Penn State (1st) 4. Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi State (2nd) 5. Deonte Banks, Maryland (2nd) Safety 1. Brian Branch, Alabama (1st) 2. Antonio Johnson, Texas A&M (2nd) 3. Christopher Smith, Georgia (3rd) 4. Jordan Battle, Alabama (3rd) 5. Jartavius Martin, Illinois (3rd) Final thoughts The first interesting thing to watch for in this draft is the way the back end of round 1 goes tomorrow night. I think there will be a few surprises. There might be one or two names that pop up there that multiple people see as more like 3rd rounders. There is normally one. It was Cole Strange last year, otherwise when the Seahawks used to pick late every year it was normally whoever they took. Wouldn't surprise me if I am reaching down the board on more than one occasion tomorrow to mark off a name that I thought we could ignore until Friday. I think the second interesting question will be at what point does any kind of consensus go out of the window completely and I think could be as early as the middle of the second round. I think you could very easily see guys people presume would be gone sliding and guys that are not even being talked about as day 2 picks coming off the board in the late 40s and 50s. In a draft like this that is weaker in early rounds I think smart GMs will be trying to move around to target specific players who might be scheme fits for their roster but wouldn't necessarily hold the same value league wide. That could mean a lot of trade activity in day 2, whereas I don't see a ton of trades day 1 other than if a team wants to go up for a Quarterback, because there just are not those blue chippers to go chase after. Anyway, what I can promise is I'll be there through all seven rounds in the draft thread. To the very bitter end on Saturday night. And I will be here each morning after with my daily de-briefs too. Even when the class is not stellar the NFL Draft is one of my favourite events in the sporting calendar... and we are now just about 25 hours away from the Carolina Panthers going on the clock!!!

In most places, no. Here? Certainly warmish.

Yea I see Van Ness more as a base end too, going to play the run well, play with some hustle, pick up 4 or so coverage / clean up sacks a year. Good player not sure about the ceiling. But I actually am a lot lower on Smith that the consensus. I see the physical potential but I don't like his tape. I'm not sure he understands what he is doing. If I was a 3-4 team I might take a punt just on the speed and explosiveness and hope I can teach him the rest. But if the speed and explosiveness was only good enough for 3 sacks a year in college on a dominant defense then unless the technique improves a lot I don't know how it is good enough for lots of sacks in the pros. I kinda see him a bit like Oweh who the Ravens took a couple of years ago. I hear Baltimore really like Smith and that makes sense to me too.

Meh. I'm not high on him for a 4-3 team.

Yes.

Last regular or post season game I didn't watch was the 2013 game @ New Orleans. I was at Wembley watching the 49ers. But the last game I didn't watch and wasn't tracking the score live would be like 2005 maybe. In those days I just looked up the result on a Monday and then watched the halftime highlight roundup in the UK MNF broadcast.

They have had private workouts with Simpson and Sanders I believe. Not top 30s though.

And this is a very reasonable post. I'm not super high on Torrence as a 1st rounder - period - even in a class like this one. I also agree with you he isn't a fit for what the Bills have tended towards in their oline build, but they have flip flopped a bit on that. He is similar to Quinton Spain who they signed, then extended and paid, then benched, then cut. So it is hard to be too definitive on their type. I do think you might be onto something with the RAS stuff at oline too. It might be one area of the field where the tape matters more than the athletic profile and it might be time for them to just select good footballer players rather than looking for a high RAS guy. That said, think Ford was a low RAS guy in round two and that was a disaster, so it cuts both ways.

So I have the drop after 6 personally. I like Schoonmaker (I understand the Bills like him too fwiw) but I'm not sure I see a day 2 talent there. I think he is a day 3 guy. But I can see a team towards the end of round 2 or the very top of the 3rd having looked at this class and thought "we'll get a tight end in the second" going on the clock with 6 taken and reaching. It wouldn't be the first time.

Yea agreed, although I wouldn't bank on them having 10+ good enough to win spots. But there are absolutely slots there to be won - particularly on offense.

I know I have said it before but my favourite thing about him is how well he locates and tracks the football. The more you watch him on tape the more you think man that is elite level ball tracking. For a guy who catches so many balls deep down the field he is in position to make the catch so consistently. He is up there with Tyler Lockett as one of the best deep ball trackers I have seen. Yep. DK still doesn't run the whole route tree. Do you think Seattle care? I'm not taking a receiver in the top 10 that can't run the route tree, but nobody is asking Beane to. He is at #27. I actually think the release package is the bigger question. They schemed him a lot of free releases at Tennessee.

Interesting. I definitely have 6 going. Schoonmaker too would be an interesting development. Yea in the event he gets there I think they'd take him. I am not saying he definitely will but if I have a controversial (at least on this board) thing that I think might happen tomorrow night, it is Campbell falling much further than people expect.

Hot take.... Jack Campbell will still be on the board at #59.

Yea he definitely ran slower than I expected as well. I'd consider him at #27 depending on the board. Awesome post. I think a lot of it makes sense. This regime definitely has patterns in who and how they draft. I think you are probably pretty close.

Right two picks, I can see them in the other order. Tom Telesco loves size receivers. In 10 years has never drafted a wideout below 6'0 before the throw away rounds. I see the thinking that Addison therefore compliments what he has, but given his MO I reckon he goes big again. Equally if Lamar is staying in Baltimore his strength is middle of the field you could put Addison in the slot and let him eat. Agree Kincaid in particular is in play for LAC if he is there. I think Edge is the other position to watch in Baltimore - heard that they are very sweet on Nolan Smith.

I have been calling Swift out in Detroit for weeks. That is a Bijan landing spot if he gets to #18. @Solomon Grundy

Okay, nobody wants to come up for a receiver, I think in the real draft there are teams that would if Seattle wants to get out of this pick. But, here we are and so with the 20th pick in Virgil's version 3.0 Mock Draft of 2023, the Seattle Seahawks select: Joey Porter Jnr, Cornerback, Penn State The best player available and fits our scheme and fills a need. Tariq Woolen had an excellent season as a rookie but he is an aggressive attack corner and I want someone to balance that out on the other side with length and technique. I think Porter Jnr has the best cover technique coming out of the top 3 corners. He isn't as smooth as Gonzalez, he doesn't play the run and compete like Witherspoon, but in terms of an advanced coverage skillset I think he is right there. He can play man, he can play zone, he needs to be a bit less grabby when beaten, but that will come. We started Mike Jackson, a career backup, as our other corner in 2022. This is an immediate upgrade and playing with Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs and Tariq Woolen gives Seattle its best secondary since the legion of boom days. @Alphadawg7 and the artist formerly known as the San Diego Chargers are now on the clock.

Yep. As I said above, if any kid can succeed at QB in the NFL at 5'10 it is Bryce Young. If he can't I think it would put anyone off ever trying again with an early pick.

Another half hour for anyone wanting to trade up.... maybe one of those receivers? Otherwise I will make the pick.

I like Evans. Higher on him than most I think.