GunnerBill

Nah I don't. I don't watch enough players to do it. I mean I could just go e.g. oh the Saints need a RT I'm here in round 6 give them a tackle. But I'd just be throwing ***** at a wall and seeing what sticks. I do a 2 rounder in January but that's as far as I get.

No, Harrison OR one of the defensive tackles. Although I should remove Harrison really because I have him gone already.

2019 only two went round one and Marquise Brown was the first at #25. Admittedly that was a stronger class in other positions that helped knock guys down.

He is good in routes where he can get those long strides going. He is less good where you need his feet to move quickly. For example, he doesn't snap off to execute the comeback or the sharp in cut. But he runs downfield stuff pretty well. Where he can get into his stride rhythm he is smooth. It's the sudden stuff where he can be a little sloppy. I don't know I'd necessarily call it a strength but I don't think it is a weakness either. He is fine as a route runner. It's the playing small that worries me the most.

I remember limited flashes in 2019 when he was job sharing tackle with Nsekhe. I don't remember any for him at guard. He had a decent game in the opener of 2021 vs the Steelers, sucked the next 2 weeks and promptly lost his job.

I think the difference is fans and the talking heads are higher on the WRs than the teams. The more people talk to teams about the receivers the more you are seeing them "slide" on draft boards.

Agree totally with that.

I don't have access to ESPN+ or whatever it's called. So unless someone sends it to me (which of course nobody would ever do because it would breach copyright ) I don't see Mel's stuff. But agree what everyone is doing at this stage is trying to read tea leaves and the big network guys and piecing together conversations that they have had. It's one of the reasons I've moved Nolan Smith up. I think that's a funky fit myself, and until the past 24 hours nobody has had it. But suddenly some of the guys who have got sources have gone that way and that suggests to me they have got information. I like McDonald as a player, but drafting a raw 24 year old rookie who played 5 tech in college to play the 7 and the 9 in the NFL? I mean it's a rich gamble for my tastes.

Honestly I think there is a real chance the receivers slide a bit. If you'd asked me two weeks I'd have said no, but now? I think it's possible.

I worry about him being able to be a 3 down player. If we have learnt anything from the Ed Oliver experience it is that size and weight are less the drawbacks than arm length. How many times in 4 years has Ed blown up the protection only for the QB to be able to escape him with good pocket movement because of his relatively short arms? Well Kancey's are an inch shorter. Add to that he is another 8-10lbs lighter than Ed and I think he might be a situational guy only.

Okay after a small misstep this morning where the first time I thought I'd completed it I realised there was no JSN, here is my final version 3.0 for 2023. This is the mock I will grade myself against tomorrow. 1. Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, Quarterback, Alabama This pick is the one pick that everyone will get right. It’s locked in. The Panthers are going to make Bryce Young their Quarterback of the future and finally hope to have a long term heir to Cam Newton. 2. Houston Texans – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech The thing you need to know about this pick is that DeMeco Ryans is making it. There has been something of a power struggle in Houston this spring and the Head Coach has won. Nick Caserio could well be out after the draft. Ryans comes from San Fran where they love long edge guys and none in this class are longer than Wilson. 3. Arizona Cardinals – Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama I am sticking with Will Anderson here. The Cardinals have been doing a lot of work on Paris Johnson Jnr, but my belief is that is in the event that they trade back or that Anderson is gone before they select. Anderson is an instant difference maker in a pretty talent deficient front 7. 4. Indianapolis Colts – Will Levis, Quarterback, Kentucky Remember in draft season believe what you hear in January, dismiss what you hear in March. What I heard in January (indeed even in December) was that Colts GM Chris Ballard was enamoured with Levis. I’m going to stick with my gut. He is the Colts pick. 5. Seattle Seahawks – Jalen Carter, Defensive Tackle, Georgia I think Seattle might consider Richardson if he is there (as he is in this mock) but this draft just isn’t strong enough to let a player of Carter’s talent slide. Pete Carroll has never shied away from taking on talented guys with off-field baggage and they have a huge need on their defensive interior. 6. Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, Cornerback, Illinois Equally if Carter gets past the Seahawks I think the Lions pull the trigger. But if he doesn’t then this comes down to the best corner on their board. I believe that for this scheme and this staff that would be Witherspoon. 7. Las Vegas Raiders – Christian Gonzalez, Cornerback, Oregon Even with two Quarterbacks still on the board I’m not sure the Raiders go in that direction. This is offensive line or corner and I think corner is arguably the biggest weakness of the roster. Gonzalez is also the best player available by my board. 8. Atlanta Falcons – Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Texas If both of the top two edge guys and the top two corners are gone I can imagine Atlanta would be desperate to get out of this spot. However, what we know about this regime so far is it likes spending top 10 picks on offensive weaponry. A tight end in 2021. A wide receiver in 2022. A running back in 2023? Arthur Smith got his Head Coaching job on the back of Derick Henry’s exploits in Tennessee, maybe he looks to another runner to help him retain it. 9. Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson Jnr, Offensive Tackle, Ohio State I think the Bears will go offensive line with this pick. Skoronski could come into the reckoning, but I think you start with a guy that you know can lock down the left tackle and Justin Fields blind side. That is former Buckeye Paris Johnson. 10. Philadelphia Eagles – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia The Eagles don’t have a lot of immediate needs but they do have a future need at edge. Former first round pick Derek Barnett is a free agent after this coming season, Brandon Graham is about to turn 36 and Josh Sweat is a nice player but not a true #1 rusher. I had Lukas Van Ness here in version 2.0 and he still feels like a better scheme fit, but multiple media guys I trust have reported the Eagles love Smith. 11. Tennessee Titans – Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Florida There was a lot of talk two or three weeks back about Tennessee trying to trade up for Richardson. That talk has cooled and I wonder if that is, in part, because the way the top 5 is shaping up the Titans feel like they can get Richardson at their original spot, as they do here. The future is now in Nashville. 12. Houston Texans – CJ Stroud, Quarterback, Ohio State I confess it takes some mental agility for me to make sense of this. But Houston are dead set on a top pass rusher and a Quarterback with these picks according to John McClain their respected local beat guy. The only place to get one of the top two rushers is #2 so if they don’t love any of the other Quarterbacks after Young maybe they are willing to wait it out and take whoever gets here, or trade back up? 13. Green Bay Packers – Peter Skoronski, Offensive Tackle, Northwestern Jaxon Smith-Njigba is reportedly very highly rated by the Green Bay decision makers but I was told by a plugged in Packers blogger that if he is there, Skoronski will be the pick. 14. New England Patriots – Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Boston College Which means Zay Flowers would be the first wide receiver off the board if the Patriots really do love him as much as the buzz suggests. He does have that quick twitch acceleration which is a need in their offense and he comes from a non-football powerhouse school in the north-east which is Bill’s MO. A lot of the pieces fit. 15. New York Jets – Broderick Jones, Offensive Tackle, Georgia If the Jets are able to snag Jones even after sliding back two spots as part of the Aaron Rodgers trade that is a massive win for them. With question marks of Mekhi Becton’s future and Duane Brown turning 38 before the season kicks off, tackle is a huge need. 16. Washington Commanders – Emmanuel Forbes, Cornerback, Mississippi State One of the most buzzy prospects in the final week or two of draft season has been Emmanuel Forbes. His slight frame is a concern but the more teams have dug into his tape the more the ball production has stood out. A number of teams now have him as CB3 and one of those is allegedly the Commanders who have a need at the position. 17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Darnell Wright, Offensive Tackle, Tennessee In version 2.0 I considered Wright to the Steelers at this spot. Their need at tackle is significant but I wondered whether they would see a right tackle only guy like Wright as providing sufficient value at the spot. The reporting I’ve heard since suggests they would. Therefore he is the pick. 18. Detroit Lions – Calijah Kancey, Defensive Tackle, Pittsburgh I don’t love this pick, he feels small to me for a Dan Campbell guy, but they are looking for an interior penetrator and I think Kancey will land somewhere in the first round, so maybe this is the most likely spot. 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Anton Harrison, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma The teens are where I expect the offensive tackles to fly off the board. The Buccs seem as though their preference is to shift all pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs to left tackle, which makes sense, and would allow Harrison to ease his way into the NFL on the right side. They have met with him twice in the pre-draft process. 20. Seattle Seahawks – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa This pick is one of the hardest to predict in the entire round I think. I’ve had them going safety, I’ve had them going guard, but I wonder if they might spend back to back picks on the defensive front? This is the sort of range where Van Ness might come off the board and he can play inside or outside in Seattle’s scheme. 21. Los Angeles Chargers – Dalton Kincaid, Tight End, Utah This was the pick I didn’t make in version 2.0 and then most wished I had afterwards. The Chargers love big passing game targets and while I still think this is the first pick where Quinten Johnston is in-play, their depth at tight end is thinner. Kincaid would start as a rookie. 22. Baltimore Ravens – Joey Porter Jnr, Cornerback, Penn State Joey Porter Jnr, the man whose father was an all-pro linebacker for the hated Pittsburgh Steelers in the purple and black? I think this a classic case of the Ravens waiting for the draft to come to them and taking the best football player. Marcus Peters has departed and there is a hole opposite Marlon Humphrey. 23. Minnesota Vikings – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Ohio State I think Minnesota would take any of the consensus top three corners if they fell to them but if they don’t maybe they’d wait on corner and consider an offensive weapon. The Vikings have met with all of the projected top receivers and are looking for a cost controlled running mate for Justin Jefferson as they prepare to make him the league’s highest paid receiver. 24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Branch, Safety, Alabama The Jaguars will definitely attack their secondary in this draft. I have had them going corner here but I just wonder if the superior depth at corner could tempt them to wait on that spot. Conversely there is very little depth behind Brian Branch at safety and he is worthy of this selection. 25. New York Giants – Deonte Banks, Cornerback, Maryland I have been told it will definitely be a receiver or a corner for the Giants at #25 but that the front office have been “leaning towards a corner” in recent weeks. So while Quinten Johnston and Jordan Addison are definitely in play here I think Banks would be a serious consideration if he is there. 26. Dallas Cowboys – Michael Mayer, Tight End, Note Dame I had Kincaid here in version 2.0, but with the Utah standout already selected here I am leaning towards Mayer. I think it is an immediate need for the Cowboys and there is a bit of a young Jason Witten about this pick. 27. Buffalo Bills – Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, USC I have had the Bills going receiver in all three versions. I think the alternatives are that they really like Anton Harrison or one of the defensive tackles. And if Addison is gone, that is the direction I’d seen them edging towards. However, they have met with Addison three times this spring. The interest is clear. Don’t rule out a small trade up if they think it is necessary to land him. 28. Cincinnati Bengals – Brian Bresee, Defensive Tackle, Clemson With both of the tight ends gone and five corners already selected the value that best matches up with a need for the Bengals is at defensive tackle. I think Bresee is going to sneak into the back of the first round somewhere. 29. New Orleans Saints – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson The smoke seems to suggest that Murphy is going to slide towards the end of the first round. I’m not really sure why, but the Saints have met with him twice and they have a big edge need. His body type is similar to what they just lost in free agency from Marcus Davenport and Cam Jordan can’t go on forever! 30. Philadelphia Eagles – Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Alabama The Eagles lost Miles Sanders to the Panthers in free agency and while they have dependable backup options such as Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Rashaad Penny I’m not sure any of those strike fear into opposing defenses. To maximise the RPO threat of Jalen Hurts I feel they need a dynamic runner and could use their second first round pick to secure one. 31. Kansas City Chiefs – Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State I think if there is a team likely to make a big jump up on draft night it might, for the second year running, be the Kansas City Chiefs. Offensive tackle would be their target if any of the top guys get into the 20s. If not I expect them to look for a Frank Clark replacement here. They have showed a lot of interest in McDonald who is the type of versatile player Steve Spagnuolo loves. There we have it.... no Quinten Johnston, no Keion White and no Mazi Smith. I think those are the three guys I feel like have the best chance of landing in round 1 that are not in my 31.

Ah got you. That makes a bit more sense. Apologies.

I'd take Hyatt or Simpson. Think they are the two plus athletes with high ceilings. If he is still there he should be on the list.

If Mingo goes round 1 let's shut the NFL down and play tiddlywinks or something instead. What I am hearing from well connected people who follow the Giants is corner, not receiver is likely to the their pick tonight depending on how the board falls. Luke Tenuta was such a weird pick. Nobody I knew or had spoken to thought he was going to get drafted. And he wasn't their type at all. Something tells me it was an Austin Proehl moment. Who do McBeane know in the Tenuta family?

Don't love Wright, but the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th rounders would all get thumbs up from me at those spots.

RUMOUR! Jaxon Smith-Njigba to fall out of the first round!!!! (Not really.... just I thought I'd finalised my final mock draft, sat here all proud as punch "yea I like it" and then realised I had missed JSN out altogether. D'oh!! Back to the drawing board Gunner.....)

Like who?

And punters are people too!!

I use "life is a game of inches" with my team at work all the time. Basically you never know which small detail is going to be the one on which history turns. So take them all seriously, because life is a game of inches.

It's watchable until the end for me. The Vontae Mack no matter what bit I like but the bit when he then screws the other GM around on the QB was a leap too far for me haha.

I like Vaughn too. Can only throw so many out. Not watched a single minute of Mitchell.

Yea. I have a 4th on him. I don't think my take on his is original or anything but he is good moving forwards, a bit less convincing in pass sets and I think he is limited in space. Not a guy you wanna be pulling much (if at all).

I'm not as in love with Darnell Wright as everyone seems to be. Maybe it's just me but I don't see it. I think he is going top 20. Possible even top 15, and I think that's madness myself. And as we established when the Bills picked in him in the 2nd round of Virgil's first mock I have a 4th round grade on Benton. I'm actually the opposite of you in the sense the one pick I don't mind there is Tank Dell. I mean he is tiny (although has longer arms than Flowers) but he is actually fun to watch on tape and in round 3, sure I'd think he might be worth a gamble because if you can find a way to use him he can be pretty spectacular.

Eeek. I've never done the math. Yea roughly an hour a player. 200 hours sounds a lot doesn't it? But that feels about right. But I start the first week of Jan, so over about 16/17 weeks. I do a lot of it on my commute (benefit of the tube and not driving) and I tend to a fair bit of it while I'm at the gym. I don't listen to music while I work out I watch college football film - I know, I'm odd. I also am not married, have an understanding partner, have no pets and no kids . EDIT as for the second bit... I don't know. I think the first round pick I'm most comfortable with of what feels at least possible is Jordan Addison. In the two mocks we did here that went into the second round they feel quite differently. In the first I think the value was edge at #59... Keion White was still there for example (that won't happen) but Derick Hall or Byron Young possibly. In the second one the value was at DB - Antonio Johnson at safety or Clark Phillips at corner. I think I'd stick to the board at #59 so it is really hard to know how it might fall. I think rounds 3 and 4 edge and interior offensive line make some sense just on depth of the positions at those spots. Braiden Daniels maybe in the 3rd, T/G out of Utah. Possibly Isaiah McGuire out of Missou as a 4th round target? Again just trying to marry up where the depth might still be with the possible need and value. No idea rounds 5 and 6.

Hmm. Charles Davis and Charlie Campbell both suddenly mocking Paris Johnson to the Cardinals at #3. That is noteworthy IMO. They definitely have am oline need and they can probably get a good edge early in the 2nd.... whereas not sure they get a good tackle there.