GunnerBill

I am willing to give Josh something of a pass on last year for the injury but you are right he was too inconsistent. And while I know any critcism of him can be met with blowback Josh would 100% agree with me. He knows he can play better and knows he has to. I slightly wonder if not going into the year as the QB of the Superbowl favourite and as the MVP betting favourite might actually help. Let him play more free.

It is a mix of Josh trying to force too much deep and Dorsey not having enough playcalls where he is early enough in the progression.

I think the issue is more that the state media was spitting it out last year when it was baloney. I confess that phrase winds me the ***** up too now for the same reason. Even though the logic of it does actually work with Kincaid.

I don't want to be tipped but I do want to discuss. It is supremely irritating. When you reply to a post in the discussion and when it loads up the post right in front of it is someone tipping a pick. Like I say, last night was pretty good for the most part. I think we only had two tips picked. But anyone posting that draft diamonds twitter site that tips picks in the thread would be an INSTANT ban if I were a mod

He does. Dorsey and Josh are the reason Knox's numbers are not higher. Where they do target him - in the redzone - he is a top 5 performing tight end over the past 2 seasons by almost any metric. He was criminally under used by the Bills last year. And McDermott felt so too is my very strong suspicion. They worked it out a little down the stretch but there were parts of the season where it was like our OC forgot we had a tight end out there.

Yea that list isn't Bills specific. That is by my overall grades. Tippman is my 22nd BPA.

Last night wasn't too bad that I saw. Think someone tipped the Charger pick. There might have been one other.

I think we have better potential outside options behind Davis with the two guys we brought in as FAs too. They both have a bit of inside / outside flex and would be better as 3rd outside guys than Jake Kumerow. Not sure I'd yet call it a strength but I do think it's upgraded as a collection of "pass catchers"

I have some sympathy will point #2.... but in fairness that isn't the Bills themselves that is Sal C spitting out the state propaganda on WGR. In the days when Khalil Shakir could play outside and OJ Howard and James Cook were going to pass catching pieces in our offense. It was daft when he said it, and even dafter in hindsight. I think it applies less to Kincaid. And you can look at him as a weapon akin to a receiver. But my word was that frustrating last summer.

So I have Steen in the 4th. The third is a bit thin for OL value to me. Zavala at guard. Possibly Jaelyn Duncan as a tackle / guard flex guy and Saldiveri too. Ekiyor in that range too but not sure I love him as a Bills fit either. Braeden Daniels I have a 3rd/4th borderline on if we need more Utah guys.

I mean if you have to go OL there isn't likely to be anything I like at tackle 'cos Bergeron will be long gone and then its all IOL - Schmitz, Torrence, Avila, Tippman are my next 4 (excluding the unfortunate Vorhees for injury reasons). Mauch is my next best grade after that group but I'm just not sure about him here. If I was the Titans or someone, the Falcons, maybe the Bears.... I'd be more inclined to do it. It is worth saying the Bills are 27 picks away and I only have 19 2nd round grades remaining (well actually 16 2nd round grades plus 2 1sts and a 1st/2nd borderline) plus 5 2nd/3rd borderline. And that is what I have talked about all spring. The 2nd round isn't super shallow, but it isn't 'deep' either and because the first round was super shallow in terms of true 1st round grades half of your 2nd round was always going to be wiped out on day 1. It's a bit of a bummer that we don't have our 4th because I think that is the sweet spot for IOL value and you could get a guy there who maybe won't start as a rookie but could well be ready to take a starting job in 2024. There are just so many ways this round could play out. We saw it in the two board mocks we did here. The first time around the value remaining was at edge.... (we let FAU get to mid third round!) the second time we did it the value at #59 was at defensive back. There is a scenario where it is at receiver too let's see how much teams like these second and third tier receiver prospects after being a tad gun shy on the first tier. Just so hard to guess. Last year the receivers flew on day 2, but that was a better 2nd and 3rd tier than this. Was DBs where the value was at the back of the 2nd last year. The Bills traded down a couple of times to take Cook who was a high 3rd rounder on their board.

I don't understand the point.... all 4 receivers and Kincaid were all being mocked in the first round. That isn't in dispute.

I mean they didn't. I had JSN and Addison as borderline 1sts (one point ahead of Kincaid who I had as a high 2nd) and then had 2nd round grades on Johnston and Flowers. We don't know exactly what grades the Bills had but we do know, if Beane is telling the truth and he normally does, that they didn't have all 4 as 1st round grades.

Yes but my point wasn't to compare Knox to Kelce. It was to compare their individual variance. 5.6% drops to 6.2% drops is well within the range of just normal seasonal varience - as evidenced by the variance others such as Kelce have had from year to year. It does not represent any sense that the drops issues are resurfacing which was what you were alluding to. In fairness I think the Bills under Beane have always had a decent grasp of positional value in round 1. It is rounds 2 and 3 where some of their positional resource allocation has been wonky.

I agree he was the best receiving option left. And I don't disagree if you get true elite tight end or slot performance it is worth it. Those three guys are all elite players. But you have to get that sort of elite level to make it worth it for me - in a normal year. If the Bille get 5 years averaging around 800 yards and 7 touchdowns from Kincaid given the talent pool and options in THIS draft... that would be pretty solid.

I think they will follow the board. I don't think it is going to be a "we must have position X" situation.

I didn't really think about it. Once they traded up I knew it was Kincaid.

The drop rate isn't really going up again. It was a tick higher in 2022 than 2021 but both are well within the bounds of normal for a tight end. That was just normal year to year variance. For example Kelce's drop rate in 2021 was higher than both of Knox's past two years. Nobody would say Kelce has a drops problem. Knox DID have a drops problem his first two years. He has worked really hard to straighten that out.

On the basis that I have followed this right and it is about the Packers.... Ted Thompson stood down for ill health. He only survived 4 years after doing so and was in a pretty bad way the final 2 years of his life. Trying to use that as any sort of indicment on Brandon Beane is out of order in any event. Yes. He is dead. He was terminally ill. Bad example.

BPA just means BPA. Was he the best player on their board when they drafted him. I can believe that Kincaid was that. He wasn't the best on mine (5th but best offensive player remaining) but Daniel Jeremiah and others had him as the best remaining. But I take the OP's point there is a difference between waiting for your pick and staying true to your board as against moving around the board so that the BPA also happens to fill a need. Beane has done the latter a lot in his time here IMO. The trade up for Knox back in 2019 was similar and in his mind the trade up for Ford too.

No he doesn't have that same feel that I think Beane was referring to, in terms of when to sit. But he does the hard part - het gets open. He is the 20th best available currently by my board.

While I agree Kincaid is a more fluent mover.... Knox is plenty QB friendly. He separates from defenders (in a different way) we just don't throw the ball to him.

I agree, he does. I was just meaning in terms of style - both Henry and Gesicki are big slots rather than conventional tight ends - but he is more the Henry mould in terms of playstyle and athletic profile than the Gesicki mould. He is a smoother mover and a naunce player who will separate. Gesicki doesn't really do separation he is a power forward who just goes up and gets the ball.

Yep. Pretty much my list (I'd add Antonio Johnson). If any one of those 5/6 guys is there I am running to turn in the card. Otherwise I'd consider a small move back like we did last year.

Well that's kinda the point.... what is the success criteria. In most drafts would I call Mike Gesicki style production from a 1st round tight end a win? No. In this draft would I? Possibly. Although I think he is more Hunter Henry than Mike Gesicki in terms of style. Henry went early 2nd from memory, Gesicki a little later round 2.