GunnerBill

First of all, apologies to those who missed me in the live draft thread last night. Was a bit of a case of life getting in the way yesterday and I ended up watching day 2 at my partner's without access to my full board and the setup I have at home for tracking the picks, updating this place and watching what's going on. Normal service will be resumed on day 3 - although appreciate from a Bills perspective that might not be a very busy day! So let's get down to what happened on day 2! The Bills Picks... First things first the Bills, having traded up at the cost of their 4th rounder on day one, stood pat and executed their original picks in both spots. In the second round they snagged O'Cyrus Torrence the huge guard out of Florida. He was my 36th overall player, and at the point he was selected he was 6th best available by my board and the second best available offensive player behind Tennessee wide receiver Jalin Hyatt. In fact those two were kind of our on their own on the offensive side for me as by the time the Bills went on the clock the 2nd round offensive talent was all but hollowed out. So in principle, talent and value at #59, there is much to like about this pick. Torrence is a beast in the run game, and he didn't allow a single sack in college. He also (as was touched on in Beane's presser) has experience blocking for an athletic Quarterback who likes to extend plays in Anthony Richardson (and who in my write up on Richardson I made the point does not scramble in a way that makes it easy on his guys because he is so unpredictable). I think that experience will assist him in transitioning to the Bills. He was my second rated guard overall (behind Skoronski) and my third overall interior offensive lineman. He can start and be good as a rookie and on an offensive line that has had its struggles inside over the past few years McGovern, Morse, Bates, Boettger, Edwards and Torrence suddenly looks like a strength of the roster going into camp. I'd expect McGovern and Torrence to emerge as the starting guards. The main question mark for me is scheme fit. It was when he was talked about as a round 1 fit for us and it remains here. I am a bit fed up of the Bills flip flopping on what they want on the offensive line. Part of their struggle up front has been they have never picked an identity, stuck to it and then drafted to that profile. Torrence is a kind of higher ceiling version of Quinten Spain who the Bills got one very good year out of earlier in their build, but they have moved towards high RAS athletic linemen since that point. That isn't Torrence. He wants to go forward and back rather than side to side. There is nothing wrong with that but working out how he fits with the rest of the build is the challenge. The one thing that reassures me is the Bills had Torrence in, Aaron Kromer worked him out and he has presumably signed off on this pick. I still think despite the struggles last year that Kromer can coach. If he thinks he can make this work I'm willing to trust him. The second minor concern with the pick is positional value. It's a guard with a premium pick. I'd have been tempted to go weapon again with Hyatt but I have said all draft season that in a weaker class I'm about targeting guys you really like a bit less than I am about positional value. Tight End and Guard would not normally float my boat... but we all knew they needed to upgrade Josh's weapons and his protection and to that end they are 2 for 2. Hard to complain too much about that. Onto round 3 where the Bills, for the second year running, snagged a linebacker. At least this year it was a guy I had heard of and evaluated. In terms of my grads Dorian Williams was a top 100 player and was the 20th best available by my board when selected. I had borderline 3rd/4th round grade on him, so value where selected I was fine with. There was a lot of talk about where the value of the board might be by this pick in the run up to the draft and personally I thought edge might be in play but my edge depth was wiped out by #91 and while there are a few guys knocking about I'd consider on day 3 my board is now very thin at the position. I have seen a lot of talk since the pick was made about Williams being the Tremaine Edmunds replacement though.... and I am not sure that is the player he is. To me he is more Milano than Edmunds. He possesses great speed, can run side to side and can cover as well as some safeties. But he isn't big by NFL linebacking standards and he doesn't play with the requisite power to be a difference maker at the point of contact coming downhill. Brandon Beane said last night that he agrees and they see Williams as an "outside guy" in year 1. Which I suppose did make me question what the answer for Tremaine's spot is. Conventional wisdom says that Bernard, Dodson and Klein battle it out. But if your rookie has to play outside day 1 could Matt Milano play inside? The Bills have done it before - noticeable with Lorenzo Alexander in that playoff game in Jacksonville - where suddenly an outside guy ran the defense. Alternatively could they play more base, let AJ Klein do the straight line stuff in a more old school mike linebacker role and let Williams and Milano roam and cover either side? Questions indeed. But basically I think Williams can be an impactful NFL player down the road as a modern, undersized linebacker that Sean McDermott has had success with over the years. So both of the picks in isolation I see the reasoning and I don't dislike either. I do, however, wonder strategically whether I'd have played it the other way. Had I been in the live thread last night when we went on the clock in round 2 I'd have had good money on Trenton Simpson or Drew Sanders being the pick. I don't think any of us foresaw both of those players making it to #59. Indeed, I did a mock on one of the simulators the other day where Simpson and Campbell both fell and I ignored them as I felt two of the top three linebackers getting to #59 was unrealistic - shows what I know! I am not doubting that Torrence was right up there on the Bills board when they selected him. Like I said above he was right up there on mine too, but I suspect the linebackers were there somewhere too. But I wonder if they looked at it and said "hang on, Simpson, Sanders, Henley and Williams are all still there" (Henry To'o To'o is too, though not sure they Bills have shown even a passing interest in him) and felt like they could wait on linebacker until round 3, whereas in terms of offensive line Bergeron, Avila, Schmitz, Tippman and Mauch had all gone off the board and the remaining depth was thinner. In hindsight I'd have preferred Simpson or Sanders and then Chandler Zavala (who is still there) at the end of the 3rd I think, because you'd have had your starter at linebacker alongside Milano but I get it hindsight is 20/20 and again, I find it hard to be too critical of an approach that has focused on Josh and the offense. That has been long overdue. How we approach day 3 will be fascinating. Not sure there is a single position they "have to have" at this point so they can follow the board. But dline, safety and another receiver are where I'll be keeping an eye. Beane said last night receiver and corner is where the remaining depth looks best. My board is pretty similar if I expand corner out to defensive back to include safeties (on which more below). What about the other 31... I suppose I should start where the second round started with the Steelers and the fairytale with Joey Porter Jnr. Not only is that a great story but they got a genuine top 15 player in this class at the start of round 2. Exceptional value. I am not, as readers of my thoughts this spring will know, the biggest fan of their next two picks - Keeanu Benton at defensive tackle in the 2nd and Darnell Washington at tight end in the 3rd - but they both 'feel' like Steelers to me. Wouldn't be surprised if both were successful in Pittsburgh. The team I though had a slam dunk of a night was Joe Schoen and the New York Football Giants. John Michael Schmitz is a plug and play 8 year starter. An older prospect who will be a leader on that offensive line day 1. Jon Feliciano was their starting center last season and is now in San Francisco. This is a huge upgrade. And then they swung a trade to move up in round 3 and snag Jalin Hyatt who was a top 25 player on my board. They will ultimately have to find a way to upgrade at Quarterback but so far the Schoen - Daboll era in New Jersey has been extremely impressive. A word for the Bengals too. Their defensive backfield lost three starters in Von Bell, Jesse Bates and Eli Apple this spring. DJ Turner might be more of a nickel corner but has some outside ability and was good value at the end of round 2 and then Jordan Battle probably starts as a rookie at strong safety. A couple of teams who left me scratching my head on day 2 - I know some people here love Jonathan Mingo, but I don't. The Panthers reached on him and then reached again with DJ Johnson in round 3, a former tight end turned edge rusher who will turn 25 early in his rookie season. The Packers took two tight ends (your guess is as good as mine) and a small, not particularly explosive, slot receiver in Jayden Reed who to my eye has the talent of a day 3 pick. There used to be a time when the Packers were good at drafting. Can anyone remember that far back? I'd also throw the Chiefs in the list of teams who I don't think have had the best draft so far. It felt a bit like they got a consolation prize in Anudike-Uzomah at the end of the first (though I like the player) they traded up in round 2 for Rashee Rice, who had a poor draft season despite solid tape at SMU but doesn't strike me as their "type" of receiver and then their desperation at tackle showed at the end of round 3 when they jumped up again for Wanya Morris. I confess Morris isn't a guy I watched a lot of and he does feel like a high risk but high reward selection. Their tackle situation would remain a serious concern for me heading into the season if I were a Chiefs fan. My other overall conclusion on day 2 was the general consensus lasted longer than I expected. By the end of the second round only one player not on my board had gone (Brenton Strange) and he was a "didn't have time to get to" rather than a guy I watched and dismissed (sidenote - 9 tight ends in the first 101 picks - wow). In round 3 there were 10 guys I hadn't got on the board - but four of those were the last four comp picks of the round. So actually despite the relative weakness of this draft the consensus over who the top 100 or so guys are has held pretty well. Which brings me to... What's left? I have 46 players left on my board heading into day 3... and by that the best 15 remaining are: 1. Antonio Johnson, S, Texas A&M 2. Clark Phillips III, CB, Utah 3. Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina 4. Andrew Vorhees*, IOL, USC 5. Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia 6. Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT, Northwestern 7. Christopher Smith, S, Georgia 8. Chandler Zavala, IOL, North Carolina Stata 9. Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland 10. Emil Ekiyor, IOL, Alabama 11. Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama 12. Xavier Hutchinson, WR, Iowa State 13. Brandon Joseph, S, Notre Dame 14. Henry To'o To'o, LB, Alabama 15. Jaquelin Roy, DT, LSU As you can see offensive line and secondary heavy at this stage... there is a batch of receivers just outside that group too. Those are the spots where I expect early day 3 runs. Enjoy folks!

I am willing to give Josh something of a pass on last year for the injury but you are right he was too inconsistent. And while I know any critcism of him can be met with blowback Josh would 100% agree with me. He knows he can play better and knows he has to. I slightly wonder if not going into the year as the QB of the Superbowl favourite and as the MVP betting favourite might actually help. Let him play more free.

It is a mix of Josh trying to force too much deep and Dorsey not having enough playcalls where he is early enough in the progression.

I think the issue is more that the state media was spitting it out last year when it was baloney. I confess that phrase winds me the ***** up too now for the same reason. Even though the logic of it does actually work with Kincaid.

I don't want to be tipped but I do want to discuss. It is supremely irritating. When you reply to a post in the discussion and when it loads up the post right in front of it is someone tipping a pick. Like I say, last night was pretty good for the most part. I think we only had two tips picked. But anyone posting that draft diamonds twitter site that tips picks in the thread would be an INSTANT ban if I were a mod

He does. Dorsey and Josh are the reason Knox's numbers are not higher. Where they do target him - in the redzone - he is a top 5 performing tight end over the past 2 seasons by almost any metric. He was criminally under used by the Bills last year. And McDermott felt so too is my very strong suspicion. They worked it out a little down the stretch but there were parts of the season where it was like our OC forgot we had a tight end out there.

Yea that list isn't Bills specific. That is by my overall grades. Tippman is my 22nd BPA.

Last night wasn't too bad that I saw. Think someone tipped the Charger pick. There might have been one other.

I think we have better potential outside options behind Davis with the two guys we brought in as FAs too. They both have a bit of inside / outside flex and would be better as 3rd outside guys than Jake Kumerow. Not sure I'd yet call it a strength but I do think it's upgraded as a collection of "pass catchers"

I have some sympathy will point #2.... but in fairness that isn't the Bills themselves that is Sal C spitting out the state propaganda on WGR. In the days when Khalil Shakir could play outside and OJ Howard and James Cook were going to pass catching pieces in our offense. It was daft when he said it, and even dafter in hindsight. I think it applies less to Kincaid. And you can look at him as a weapon akin to a receiver. But my word was that frustrating last summer.

So I have Steen in the 4th. The third is a bit thin for OL value to me. Zavala at guard. Possibly Jaelyn Duncan as a tackle / guard flex guy and Saldiveri too. Ekiyor in that range too but not sure I love him as a Bills fit either. Braeden Daniels I have a 3rd/4th borderline on if we need more Utah guys.

I mean if you have to go OL there isn't likely to be anything I like at tackle 'cos Bergeron will be long gone and then its all IOL - Schmitz, Torrence, Avila, Tippman are my next 4 (excluding the unfortunate Vorhees for injury reasons). Mauch is my next best grade after that group but I'm just not sure about him here. If I was the Titans or someone, the Falcons, maybe the Bears.... I'd be more inclined to do it. It is worth saying the Bills are 27 picks away and I only have 19 2nd round grades remaining (well actually 16 2nd round grades plus 2 1sts and a 1st/2nd borderline) plus 5 2nd/3rd borderline. And that is what I have talked about all spring. The 2nd round isn't super shallow, but it isn't 'deep' either and because the first round was super shallow in terms of true 1st round grades half of your 2nd round was always going to be wiped out on day 1. It's a bit of a bummer that we don't have our 4th because I think that is the sweet spot for IOL value and you could get a guy there who maybe won't start as a rookie but could well be ready to take a starting job in 2024. There are just so many ways this round could play out. We saw it in the two board mocks we did here. The first time around the value remaining was at edge.... (we let FAU get to mid third round!) the second time we did it the value at #59 was at defensive back. There is a scenario where it is at receiver too let's see how much teams like these second and third tier receiver prospects after being a tad gun shy on the first tier. Just so hard to guess. Last year the receivers flew on day 2, but that was a better 2nd and 3rd tier than this. Was DBs where the value was at the back of the 2nd last year. The Bills traded down a couple of times to take Cook who was a high 3rd rounder on their board.

I don't understand the point.... all 4 receivers and Kincaid were all being mocked in the first round. That isn't in dispute.

I mean they didn't. I had JSN and Addison as borderline 1sts (one point ahead of Kincaid who I had as a high 2nd) and then had 2nd round grades on Johnston and Flowers. We don't know exactly what grades the Bills had but we do know, if Beane is telling the truth and he normally does, that they didn't have all 4 as 1st round grades.

Yes but my point wasn't to compare Knox to Kelce. It was to compare their individual variance. 5.6% drops to 6.2% drops is well within the range of just normal seasonal varience - as evidenced by the variance others such as Kelce have had from year to year. It does not represent any sense that the drops issues are resurfacing which was what you were alluding to. In fairness I think the Bills under Beane have always had a decent grasp of positional value in round 1. It is rounds 2 and 3 where some of their positional resource allocation has been wonky.

I agree he was the best receiving option left. And I don't disagree if you get true elite tight end or slot performance it is worth it. Those three guys are all elite players. But you have to get that sort of elite level to make it worth it for me - in a normal year. If the Bille get 5 years averaging around 800 yards and 7 touchdowns from Kincaid given the talent pool and options in THIS draft... that would be pretty solid.

I think they will follow the board. I don't think it is going to be a "we must have position X" situation.

I didn't really think about it. Once they traded up I knew it was Kincaid.

The drop rate isn't really going up again. It was a tick higher in 2022 than 2021 but both are well within the bounds of normal for a tight end. That was just normal year to year variance. For example Kelce's drop rate in 2021 was higher than both of Knox's past two years. Nobody would say Kelce has a drops problem. Knox DID have a drops problem his first two years. He has worked really hard to straighten that out.

On the basis that I have followed this right and it is about the Packers.... Ted Thompson stood down for ill health. He only survived 4 years after doing so and was in a pretty bad way the final 2 years of his life. Trying to use that as any sort of indicment on Brandon Beane is out of order in any event. Yes. He is dead. He was terminally ill. Bad example.

BPA just means BPA. Was he the best player on their board when they drafted him. I can believe that Kincaid was that. He wasn't the best on mine (5th but best offensive player remaining) but Daniel Jeremiah and others had him as the best remaining. But I take the OP's point there is a difference between waiting for your pick and staying true to your board as against moving around the board so that the BPA also happens to fill a need. Beane has done the latter a lot in his time here IMO. The trade up for Knox back in 2019 was similar and in his mind the trade up for Ford too.

No he doesn't have that same feel that I think Beane was referring to, in terms of when to sit. But he does the hard part - het gets open. He is the 20th best available currently by my board.

While I agree Kincaid is a more fluent mover.... Knox is plenty QB friendly. He separates from defenders (in a different way) we just don't throw the ball to him.

I agree, he does. I was just meaning in terms of style - both Henry and Gesicki are big slots rather than conventional tight ends - but he is more the Henry mould in terms of playstyle and athletic profile than the Gesicki mould. He is a smoother mover and a naunce player who will separate. Gesicki doesn't really do separation he is a power forward who just goes up and gets the ball.

Yep. Pretty much my list (I'd add Antonio Johnson). If any one of those 5/6 guys is there I am running to turn in the card. Otherwise I'd consider a small move back like we did last year.