GunnerBill

It isn't that bit they might be in trouble for. They are entitled to do that. Threatening to bench a player unless they concede a previously agreed to guarantee in their contract however is potentially a breach of the CBA

While the Broncos season was not technically lost they conceded it was all but.

Of course but they are not an example of a team that is ploughing resource into offense and just getting by with scheme on defense. That isn't the 49ers model. There are two things about their current roster build that stick out as interesting: 1. They have Mr Irrelevant at least for one more year on a hugely advantageous rookie deal (that is almost impossible for any team to replicate); 2. They have very little of a middle class on their roster. They are stars and JAGs. That to me is the model that is the pattern among most recent Superbowl winners (rather than O vs D) and is where I still think the Bills are a bit off it. Not enough stars, more of a middle class, fewer JAGs and arguably greater depth. But that isn't ultimately what gets you over the line. It's the stars.

3 of the 9ers top 5 cap hits and 5 of their top 9 are on defense. Also if you take out Trey Lance they have spent their first pick in the draft on offense once since 2012. The magic of the 49ers build isn't having a cheap well coached defense. It is having a Mr Irrelevant QB who is at least a very capable game manager. That allows them the flexibility to have 3 highly paid DL, a market setting MLB and a well paid corner. Sure, they are well coached and have a good scheme.... but Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Fred Warner and Charvarius Ward certainly make the job of that defensive coaching staff easier. So does having the fewest turnovers on offense (which they had until Baltimore, there are four teams below them now).

No because he isn't an outside receiver.

They definitely need to draft defensive line. Not an option not to IMO. But I agree their focus on day 1 should be trying to find a wide receiver. It is really receiver, Dline and safety that are the positions during FA and the draft where they need to find guys. I'd want to draft a young OT too to have something in reserve if Brown ends up walking after 2024. Disagree I think they need to go Dline on day 2. I think they will get a mid round comp pick for next year for Epenesa. 4th or a 5th.

Yea it isn't like Tyrod. With Tyrod the Bills genuinely were maintaining financial leverage over him because they didn't want injury to automatically trigger his option and then a new coach be tied to him for multiple years. This isn't what is happening in Denver. The coach is staying. He is safe as houses. Russell wasn't benched so they could decide what to do next year. He was benched to make sure the cost of cutting him (already significant) didn't escalate any higher.

Greg Rousseau was a first rounder so there is the 5th year option too. The Bills will pick that up this summer and likely extend him after 2024. On some of the others - I think AJ is gone. He will have a bigger market than most expect unless one of Brian Burns or Josh Allen sneaks through to FA. But conversly I don't see a big market for Daquan Jones. He has always been a good player and his previous two tries at FA have left him with a pretty modest contract. And now he is a 32 year old coming off a torn pec. If the Bills want him back that is an easy deal to do. The question becomes how comfortable are they with where he is at physically to commit money to him again. Similary on Leonard Floyd. He might have a bit more of a market than he had last year. He has a had a very good season. But there is a reason he was out there for the Bills to sign in the second wave of FA and again he turns 32 as next season begins. It is worth saying on Floyd as well that while his sack number is up on his final two years in LA his pressures were actually down. Now there is two ways to look at that - you can say well his overall snaps are down and maybe he is converting pressures to sacks at a better rate because he is fresher. That is one theory. The other is that his high conversion rate is a bit of an anomoly that won't hold. I'd be inclined to bring him back though. He and Epenese have been by far our most productive pass rushers off the edge and to lose both would leave us thin. Von I laid out in another thread the other day. Cutting him costs us $17m more than they likely originally planned. But it also saves us $7m against the cap in 2024 and he was just a healthy scratch. I think he is gone.

I haven't seen an updated metric. Id be surprised if the Bills have had many seasons with 6 games against 10 win teams. And if the Bills lose on Sunday they have underachieved. There is no dispute about that.

It is by that metric we had the 7th hardest schedule in the NFL pre-season. EDIT: sorry 7th.

I think we have had the toughest schedule of the McDermott era. It was ranked I think 2nd toughest before the season began based on last year's win totals. Haven't seen how it eventually ranks but again, likely 6 games against double digit win teams. Not sure how many other teams will have had that? The easiest schedule was 2019. Not saying making the playoffs was a mirage that year or anything but the Bills had a schedule that set up perfectly for them. I take the point on relative health on offense. I think the wide receiver group has struggled. There has been some coaching issues on that side, witness the change in OC, but also Josh Allen just hasn't been consistent enough and he leads the league in interceptions.

It was one of the quicker Bills games overall this season I think, so I do believe the commercial free 4th helped a bit.

I haven't sought to argue that McDermott has been perfect this year. In fact I have criticised him plenty and particularly for those two losses to New England and Denver. I don't think it has been his best year as HC and while there have been signs post bye that maybe he has smoothed some of it out I think he struggled earlier in the year marrying his two jobs together. I just don't think this team was a slam dunk should be winning 13 games type team against this schedule. That would have been nice. And it wasn't impossible. But I always thought it was probably at the optimistic end. You are right that what people here say or think will have zero impact. Barring a 13 second style meltdown (which I do think could prompt a re-think if it is on that level of egrigous) McDermott is absolutely safe, playoff or no playoff. The Joe B piece in the Athletic was pretty clear. Within the organisation he is safe as houses. The Pegulas have no desire to make a change.

I never said the bolded. That is a lie. My point was always it is a very specific role. And it is about putting defenses in a bind and forcing them into advantageous positions for the Bills. It was not something they did week to week and I never claimed it happened a bunch. They have used Gilliam much less on offense this season. Dallas is the only game where I'd say he had an impact off the top of my head. They did run some conventional 2 back stuff that day. It isn't something they have done much of. Withour checking the numbers I reckon his snap count is way down on offense. That certainly makes it easier to question whether they got the value out of him.

I would give the Eagles the edge on us on paper. Yes. I think they are better on both lines and have better receivers. And on the day their talent made more plays. I think the Cowboys actually player for player have more talent on paper too (the Bills significantly outcoached Dallas fwiw). Then I think Miami, Jacksonville, Kansas City, the Chargers and the Bengals all on paper are very closely matched. So before the season that was 8 games where I'd have said at least that the Bills don't have a significant talent advantage. So my thinking was let's say you split those 8 games 4-4. You will probably lose one you shouldn't somewhere because it is the NFL, the parity is closer than most imagine and it happens most years even to the best teams. That gets you to 5 losses. 12-5. That was basically my basis for where I expected they would be pre-season.

You didn't disprove it. The numbers proved me right. You just didn't accept it. I did say I'd do the same detail breakdown of the other KC game (I can't recall if I did 2021 or 2022 now) but I didn't ever get around to it. Still. I proved you wrong. As I do time and time again when you try and hammer your false narratives.

I think the Bills and Eagles are pretty closely matched teams. On the day their talent just made one or two more plays. If we want to really break it down simply.... Tyler Bass missed two FGs from 34 and 48 and their kicker nailed a 59 yarder in a squal. It probably came down to that as much as anything else.

We lost the Jets game because of Josh Allen. Anyone who still refuses to accept that needs to come into the real world. We lost the Eagles game to a better team on the day who just made one or two more plays than we did. I am saying the same now as I said then. He did make an impact but not week in week out. His role was very gameplan specific. But in those games the result of his usage was very clear and backed up by the numbers.

I think he has been a bit more creative and a bit more innovative. He has actually simplified some of what Josh is looking at by using motion, shifts and more in breaking routes to gain a leverage advantage and put a single defender in a bind. That said (and I said this after the Dallas game too) the fundamental issues that have plagued the offense all year have not gone away. They are still there. Not enough separation from receivers vs man. Too many drops. Untimely OL penalties. And the odd inexplicable decision by the QB. Je might have reduced the latter but they are still there.

The Bills will draft a receiver in the first two days of the draft for the first time under this regime.

We have lots of good players. But on a schedule with 5 games against double digit win teams (likely 6 by the end of the season cos the Jags will beat the Titans) and playing Cincy while Burrow was healthy and generally having one of the tougher schedules in the league this year you need those good players to be pretty consistently at their best to get to the bigger win totals. And the difference between good players (which we have lots of) and elite players (which we have fewer of) is the ability to repeat it week in week out, game in game out. We have lost two games this year that I put squarely on coaching. Patriots and Broncos. To argue all 6 of our losses are on coaching is ridiculous.

It can win 14. It can win 17. It can win 7. 11 or 12 is par for this roster agains this schedule. 13 or 14 wasn't impossible but I do think would have been an overachivement. 9 or 10 would be an underachievement. They were provided. You just didn't like what it proved so disregarded them. Stick with your narratives. They are safer for you. I have given my reasons earlier in this thread.

Nope. I never said he did it all last season. That is an outright lie which is the other thing you do. I said he had a specific role on the offense that in certain games they use and has an impact on the defense. I broke down a KC game in great detail gave you the numbers and the succes rates with him on the field bs without him. Explained why that was. You just didn't like the answer. You don't like answers that unpick the narratives you make up in your head.

Maybe it would. Maybe it wouldn't. But when it executed like it did I think the result absolutely justified the call. The 5 yards in that scenario (very unlikely to get the ball back) mattered more than the timeout.

I gave you examples there too. You didn't like them. You only consider someone has answered the question if you agree with their response. You are incapable of meaningful discussion. And I think you are overestimating it.