GunnerBill

Which "sound valid points" did I disagree with? If it was going all in to improve the offense that wasn't me I have been asking for protection and weapons for 2 years.

This. It is one of the deepest rosters in the league. QB2, OT and LB are the depth questions for me. Elsewhere you might question is the top end talent good enough (DL in particular) but the Bills 2nd team dline could play in an NFL game tomorrow and not get embarrassed. They remain very deep.

I think the wide receiver room is probably settled at this point. Diggs and Davis will start outside. Hasty or Shakir will start in the slot. Hasty will also play wide from time to time. Shorter will be the Jake Kumerow - backup outside guy and a primary ST gunner. Sherfield will be the depth guy everywhere... he can play inside, outside and on teams. I'd be shocked if anyone other than those 6 makes the roster subject to injuries and some big trade.. The tight end room will be Knox, Kincaid and Morris and I think it is 75% certain that the running backs will be Cook, Harris and Hines (who will also be the primary returner) with Gilliam as the FB/TE hybrid. The only genuine position battles I see on offense are on the offensive line, otherwise I think the offensive roster is close to set. The defensive roster is where the intrigue lies this spring and summer IMO.

Fair but I think it was a players loss first and foremost. They just played theirnworst game of the year. Flat. Lifeless. Josh looked like he was stoned. The playcalling wasn't great on either side but I think you could have had Bill Walsh and Bill Belichick as coordinators for that game and the Bills would still have lost handily.

The Dolphins did not "give us all we could handle." That is utter rubbish. The Bills had 423 yards at 5.9 yards per play in that game. The Dolphins had 231 yards at 3.3 yards per play. The only reason that wasn't a blow was the Bills making unforced errors on offense and special teams that gave the Dolphins short fields. The story of that game and the Bengals game is that the Bills simply were playing nowhere near their best football down the stretch last year. Maybe it was emotional exhaustion but I don't think so. I just think they had too many key players missing or playing hurt.

I don't think there is a gap to bridge particularly. I think the NFL playoffs is about playing your best football at the right moment. Last year that wasn't the Bills. Not just because of Damar's situation but the injuries to key players all season long. Look at the best players on their roster - Josh had the elbow, Von did his ACL, Tre was not back to himself from his ACL. Their two safeties were 1st and 2nd team all pro the year before. Micah missed most of the year and Poyer played the last 2 months on a bum knee. Ed Oliver played the playoff games with more strapping than an Egyptian mummy and at the same time Jordan Phillips played defensive tackle with one arm. Every team gets injuries, I get it. But the Bills made last year a kind of "all in" season and then had rotten injury luck. It sucks but it happens. That's life. In 2021 they were playing their best football in the playoffs. Unfortunately they blew the game at Kansas City at the end. Had they won that game I guarantee you there is no way the AFCCG of that year vs the Bengals looks like the playoff game last year did. Not guaranteeing we'd have won but it wouldn't have been a blowout that leaves people talking about a gap. The AFC is stacked. The road for the Bills this year is tough. They have a testing schedule, the division is the strongest it has ever been and there are emerging threats elsewhere. Baltimore have upgraded their offense, Pittsburgh (if Kenny Pickett can take a step) are better than they have been in 3 or 4 years. Maybe the Broncos improve under Sean Payton and the Jags should keep ascending. At the same time the two teams that have beaten us in the playoffs most recently - Kansas City and Cincinnati - both have question marks of their own. The Chiefs offensive tackle situation makes the combination of Dawkins and Brown look like the hogs. The Bengals defensive backfield is in a state of flux. It's going to be a really interesting season. At the start of 2020 season, the year the Bills lost to the Chiefs in the Championship game, I confidently said that I thought there were only three AFC teams who could make the Superbowl - KC, Buffalo or Baltimore. In 2023 there are at least 6 who I think have a shot. And there are a couple more that wouldn't shock me.

I am slightly confused by the defensive tackle thing. Isn't the issue less about numbers at the position this year and more about not having any under contract for next year (so facing yet another total makeover of the spot which no doubt will involve Beane spending all of his FA pennies there)? So how does signing a vet to a 1 year deal help? The attraction to drafting a guy was a cheap 4 year deal. An expensive 1 year deal makes less sense to me, even if they end up cutting Tim Settle.

Think this may well be true but I don't think there are big gaps. While I think the Dolphins and Jets have more stars, the Bills are deeper across the board I think. How are the Pats worse?

Passing on Dawand Jones was the best move they made.

We will be at Miami early when it's 120 degrees.

I think he can catch too. They didn't throw to him a ton. But when they did, he caught it.

Happens regularly. These are unsigned UDFAs who get invites to rookie minicamp to make up the numbers and let them run drills. If they impress they sign.

In fairness he reached the buffet line....

If you are spending a 1st round pick then a) he needs to be on the field and b) he needs to produce in that range - between Eifert and Fant. Anything less would be a disappointing rookie year for me. I am not asking for 800 yards or anything. Somewhere 420 and 550 and 3 or 4 TDs. Dawson Knox had 388 and 2 TDs as a rookie and he was a total project. I don't think I am setting the bar too high.

He does realise HE built last year's roster too, right? HE paid $6m to Roger Saffold for a passable impression of a limp lettuce leaf all season long. HE matched the offer for Bates. HE decided McKenzie and the often hurt Crowder was sufficient cover at slot. I am glad he was frustrated. We all were. Especially at guard I am actually encouraged by the moves - both FA and draft. I think the line has the potential to be the best Josh has had in Buffalo. Not an elite line, but one good enough to keep him protected.

I think the question of "what does success look like?" for Kincaid's selection is a fascinating one (not just rookie year but career). I think as a rookie if he could be somewhere around Noah Fant numbers I think that would be a promising year. If he is below Tyler Eifert numbers then I'd consider that disappointing. Somewhere in between would be kinda average.

Aaaaannnnnndddd breathe. The 2023 NFL Draft is over. I always get that feeling on Draft Saturday, a bit like the Friday of the Cheltenham horse racing festival... the sadness that you have to wait 52 weeks to do it again. This was not the most talent laden draft ever but it was one of the most fun. Especially Thursday Night which might be my favourite first round of all time. Day 3 is now in the books which is bad news for Brandon Beane who is on the phone to the London Monarchs - the NFL's new London based team who entered the league in 2045 seeing if he can trade back again for a 2047 6th round pick. Onto the serious stuff.... The Bills picks... Strangely I don't have a lot to say. The Bills picked three guys on the final day of the draft but none of them are guys I have done any detailed scouting on. Justin Shorter (by name, but not by nature... he is 6'4) gives them a developmental bigger, outside receiver who can also be an effective gunner on special teams. I think the way to see this pick is that he is Jake Kumerow's replacement. He is a bit of an underachiever in college having originally been a 5 star recruit at Penn State but made minimal impact before transferring to Florida where he was a role player rather than a feature guy. He is big, he is a good contested catch guy and he will be a redzone target. But the bits of his game I have seen (mainly while evaluating Anthony Richardson) he is very one paced, lacks initial burst and explosion and lacks any short area quickness. He is fine when he can get those long strides going, but whenever the field gets tight - either among defenders or by the sideline - he can look cumbersome. I don't mind it as a gamble on a size guy but the worry I have is I struggle to think of one of those bigger type receivers who underwhelmed in college and then suddenly performed in the NFL. The first of the two seventh rounders, after Brandon Beane's roughly 106 trade downs, was Nick Broeker, offensive lineman from Ole Miss who I have seen no more than snippets of. His RAS score looks better than I expected it to, partially because he ran a decent 40. He looks a bit athletically limited to me on tape, but all the cliches about smart, tough, teachable apply here. I can imagine Sean McDermott loving him. I think he played a bit of tackle in college too and Brandon Beane did allude to the Bills trying him at both. It would massively increase his roster chances if he can compete at right tackle as well as guard, because suddenly we have something of a logjam at those interior positions. We know Brandon Beane LOVES to flip offensive line depth for day 3 picks in training camp - Marshall Newhouse, Wyatt Teller (whoops), Russell Bodine and Cody Ford - so it wouldn't stun me if he found a way to do that again and that would open a spot for Broeker to make the 53. I know even less about Alex Austin, but just from the physical profile and the couple of highlights videos I have found on youtube he fits their classic late round corner profile. Long, boundary corner who looks a natural fit for zone. Plays off, with good eye discipline and comes up to tackle in the run game. I think he is a bit of a straight lines player looking both at his agility testing and the tape. Probably will struggle to make the 53 but could be a solid developmental guy for the practice squad. And of course they picked up two 6th round picks for next year in the process. It was something I was thinking as I was going through the draft but now that Josh's big money is kicking in the Bills need to be a team that drafts 7, 8, 9 guys each year. They won't all pay off, but they need to find cheap talent to provide depth across their roster. Next year's class should be better than this one (my view on which has been very clear) so I like adding a bit of flexibility for that. Interesting note that both Shorter (in person 30 visit) and Broeker (virtual meeting) were on the list of guys the Bills had met with during the process. It isn't everything but we should remember each year how important the Bills consider those in person meetings. Finally, before I finish on the Bills, interestingly in 24 hours they have gone from "Dorian Williams will only play outside as a rookie" to "we will decide by training camp whether we will let him compete for the Mike." Interesting. Beane was pretty definitive on Friday so being more open to the alternative on Saturday did jump out to me somewhat. The UDFAs I think we have signed six to this point. Two offensive linemen, including Richard Gouraige our 71st Florida Gator signing of this draft season; two wide receivers including Reggie Wayne's cousin, a defensive lineman out of Alabama in DJ Dale (who has an outside shot at the roster) and my guy - running back Jordan Mims out of Fresno State - who got a mention in my draft sleepers thread. Mims is the guy I am most excited about. He might be a practice squad guy as a rookie but he is an all around running back. He is fast enough, he has good hands out of the backfield and he can block. I think he might have a Quinton Morris like arc where he makes the practice squad as a rookie but then cracks the roster as a second year player. I would expect another 4 or 5 UDFAs to follow. Other notable moves I was not joining in the seemingly universal praise for the Bears first two days. In fact through the first two days they were on my list of teams that had drafted poorly. I liked their day 3 moves much better. Roschon Johnson the Texas running back in round 4 has a chance to start for them as a rookie, Tyler Scott will be behind Claypool, DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney but provides good depth and upside at receiver and Terell Smith the corner out of Minnesota in round 5 was one of my favourite picks of the day. On a bad roster they definitely added some depth and potential contributors. Houston were another strong performer. Henry To'o To'o, Jarrett Patterson and Xavier Hutchinson all have the developmental potential to be good starters in the NFL and were picked through rounds 5 and 6. Finally the Colts are not a team I've talked much about during the draft but they have had a really strong weekend. Obviously a lot of it hinges on Anthony Richardson, but Julius Brents picked in round 2 and Darius Rush picked in round 5 have the potential to be their starting corner duo as rookies - solidifying a spot that has been problematic for the team for a number of seasons. Josh Downs was great value in round 3 and will likely beat out Isaiah McKenzie as the starting slot, and Adetomiwa Adebawore - who I thought would get overdrafted - actually landed with them about where he should early in round 4. And then there were SIX.... My board had six graded guys remaining at the point that the final selection was made. Surprised by the Alabama duo Emil Ekiyor and Eli Ricks not being taken. Maybe people steered away from them in later rounds as guys who've maximised their potential and don't offer more upside but they both have some good tape out there. Anyway to break down where my six undrafted guys have landed as UDFAs (and two of my sleeper post guys who were not on my board too): 1. Emil Ekiyor, IOL, Alabama - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 2. Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 3 Brandon Joseph, S, Notre Dame - DETROIT LIONS 4. Ivan Pace, LB, Cincinnati - MINNESOTA VIKINGS 5. Rezjohn Wright, CB, Oregon State - CAROLINA PANTHERS 6. Trey Dean III, S, Florida - NEW YORK JETS NR - Bryce Ford-Wheaton, WR, West Virginia - NEW YORK GIANTS NR - Jordan Mims, RB, Fresno State - BUFFALO BILLS I wish all of those the best with their NFL futures (yes, even Trey Dean!) And that's it! The end! Another draft season over and done with. Who knows what I'll do with my spare time now? Hopefully by the time we all turn our minds draftward next year we will be speculating about how Brandon Beane is going to use the 32nd pick. Now to start scrutinising OTAs

Can she play the mike?

Did he pay off?

Fortunately the oline could be scary too.... for Mahomes!

Yes that is what I was trying to say. It doesn't come down to anything more than he prefers player A to player B and prefers player X to player Y. People looking for a logical thread that ties it all together won't find one.

I don't think Aaron was very good in 2022 and he is age 40. Everyone just presumes Brady did it so Aaron can but Aaron has never had the same dedication to football that Tom did. I voted "better" because I do think Aaron is clearly an upgrade on Zack but I am sceptical Aaron is still capable of playing at an elite level and the biggest issue aside from QB was tackle and there isn't any upgrade there. If they get an elite season out of Rodgers then it is far better, for sure. I actually think the people voting the same for New England are misguided. They are better. Their first two picks in this draft are going to be very good players for them and while I am not the biggest JuJu or Gesicki guy they are upgrades on Agholor and Jonnu Smith. How much do those matter when they still don't have a Quarterback is a fair question. They will still be the 4th best team in division, so if that is what people mean by the same - fair enough. But I think they will be a better football team.

It comes down to @IronMaidenBills prefers Mayer to Kincaid and he prefers the Princeton kid to Shorter. He is entitled to his view. I disagree with him on Kincaid - Mayer, especially in terms of fit here in the Bills offense. I don't know anything about the Princeton kid and really I know little about Shorter. So I don't have a strong opinion.

Neither of them are currently on the roster.

He moves better, much more fluid in and out of breaks. He runs better routes and he has better hands. It is those three things for me. I didn't have a ton between he and Mayer and there are teams for whom I'd have had Mayer TE1 - basically anyone running the Shanahan scheme.