GunnerBill

Lot depends on two factors for me: 1. Calvin Ridley - I don't think they have that weapon that teams worry about. Christian Kirk is a nice slot receiver. Engram is a nice tight end. But they need a true "you gotta double him" weapon. If Ridley can come back and be that I am confident their offense takes another step. 2. Pass rush - who knows what is happening with the other Josh Allen and I am not a big Travon Walker guy. They are going to have to find a way to get to the passer. But good team, ascending young QB and easy schedule. They should win their division and of 1 and 2 both work themselves out then the #1 seed is in play.

Benford is making this team and based on the OTA reports (I know, OTAs, let's see when pads go on) he is going to push very hard for a starting job. I genuinely believe it is 4 guys for 2 spots. I expect White and Elam to emerge but I don't think that should be thought of as a given. It doesn't matter. They are not doing it. He is their best special teams player.

My only real question is will the team be able to play its best football and/or get a break of the ball or two in January? If the answer to that is yes the Bills can definitely win the Superbowl. If it's no, they can't. That is the lesson of the last three AFC playoffs. If you can't bring your absolute A game on the day there is no route for you because the competition is fierce. I think on the NFC side you can find a way through, but on the AFC side you are going to have to beat the best.

Depends what you are measuring. How much are you weighting QB? How much are you weighting the 21 other starters? How much are you weighting depth? I think on QB and on depth the Bills should be better than 6th. But probably on the other 21 starters 6th-8th feels about right.

He was a Zack Wilson truther too. Chris Simms QB expertise really comes down to "he nailed it with Josh Allen." Drew Lock, Zack Wilson, Taysom Hill.... maybe less so.

Even when Colin is wrong, and he is plenty, he actually tries to set out his logic for a position. Sometimes it feels a bit like he decides his position then retro fits the logic - and there is a bit of that here - not sure the Bills signing Leanord Floyd for $2.7m on a 1 year deal means anything at all for their intentions on offense, but compared to other talking heads Colin at least always tries to set out a coherent narrative. And of course there is some truth to the narrative that the Bills haven't done enough around Allen in recent years. Just not sure this particular move is indicative of that.

The oline was good in 2020 in fairness (and no coincidence it was Josh's best season to date). I know Kansas City kinda worked us over in both games - and I think you can legitimately put that down to coaching, think Spags outcoached Daboll and Bobby Johnson on both occasions. But other than KC the line was good that year. Not an elite line but borderline top 10. Unfortunately my concern was always that the lack of crowds and the NFL clearly backing off on offensive holding calls to allow games to flow in empty stadiums and try to protect the TV spectacle made oline play easier and our group regressed in 2021. Daryl Williams was excellent at right tackle in 2020 and then slid back and ended up at guard and Feliciano who I was always a bit of a sceptic of regressed. But basically in Josh's career the olines have been: 2018 - trash (by Beane's own admission) 2019 - average 2020 - good 2021 - bad 2022 - bad bordering on terrible

If they end up missing on Brown (jury still out) then I think picking the wrong tackle twice is the problem rather than not drafting enough tackles. It's always more nuanced than just chuck resources at it in the draft. You have to get that right.

I wasn't doing a full breakdown of their drafting (although doing that and a true comparison against the league is on my to do list). I was simply demonstrating that the statement Bill made is simply not true. When I am making a general point you will know I am making a general point. This was not a general point it was a very specific dismissal of a factual inaccuracy.

I think you might want to read my post again.

Wrong.

I disagree, and the Bills certainly didn't use him that way in 2022. He was, primarily, the rotation for Jones at 1T. I think he can play 3T in a pinch but I think his natural fit is 1T.

I agree with almost all of this... although as I have argued elsewhere on the Rams - the take that they "sold out for a Superbowl and then immediately sucked" is unfair. They were still a .500 football team when they lost Kupp and then 3-4 when Stafford first got hurt (3-6 by the time they eventually shut him down for the year). That despite losing their starting left tackle week 1, both starting guards for most of the year and at some points both starting safeties (we saw how the Bills D looked vs the Vikings when both Hyde and Poyer were down). And Donald missed time and they had other little injuries here and there too. Sure, their depth has suffered as a result of their Superbowl or bust mentality, both trading away picks for veterans and kicking the can down the road on the cap, but the idea it was some sort of inevitability that they would fall off is a stretch IMO. Take the starting QB, best offensive weapon, and 3/5ths of the starting oline off any team in the NFL and there is going to be a drop off. Not saying the Rams were likely to repeat without it, I don't think anyone ever expected that, but I think they would still at worst have competed for a playoff spot without their roster being injury ravaged.

Me. Mike McGlinchey is an average right tackle. Ed Oliver is a better football player. I am sure you can find an offensive player who would be the answer to that question but it isn't Mike McGlinchey.

For sure Ed needs a good 1 tech next to him. The Bills have Jones, Ford and Settle on the roster. Jones is good but old. Poona is on a one year deal and Settle is very much a backup. I am not against them keeping Jones for next year but I want to see him maintain his level of play in 2023 first. Because at his age when the wall comes it comes quickly. And he isn't gonna be a guy with a huge FA market who is a hard extension to do come the off season. However, given Beane thinks we are about $3m over the real cap once we get to cuts stage Jones is definitely a candidate for an early extension to spread some money, the risk is if you do that and his play dips in 2023 you might be paying him not to play for you in 2024.

Possible.

When they passed on him in that 3rd round in favour of Moss my immediate thought was length, because as you say there were lots of dots to connect the Bills to him and his style of play is a fit. But for a guy 6ft2 he has short arms - sub 31". We know how much the Bills value arm length as a trait in their corners. Later that night however Beane gushed about Zack Moss and said he had to sit on his hands to avoid trading UP to pick him (imagine how 🤢 that would have been). So maybe that was not a significant factor, and interesting that they have brought him in. Do we know what he signed for in Washington? Odd that all he could get on the open market is bare vet minimum and if the Commanders gave him more than that then why did they cut him so quickly?

He's a PS level, former UDFA, who has lasted 4 years in the league and started 4 times inbetween bouncing on and off the active roster. When a guy like that starts you are not in trouble because that guy starts so much as you are in trouble because of who is not starting. The Bills never put him out there through pure choice. It was always injury related.

Just not true. In 7 drafts this regime has picked two defensive tackles - total. A 1st rounder and a 3rd rounder. DBs they have drafted lots on day 3, but the fewest in the first two days of the draft of ANY team in the league in that timeframe (since 2017). They have drafted fewer linebackers in the first two days of the draft (3) than they have offensive linemen (4). They haven't been great judges of oline talent. From their FA acquisitions to their draft picks. I agree they could have done more, but that is at LEAST as much about talent evaluation as it has about teambuilding strategy.

I remember that the Bills were rumoured to really like him in that draft. We took old leaden feet himself just ahead of him in round 3. The Vikes are going to more of a man coverage scheme under Flo, and Dantzler is definitely not a fit for that. He is a pure zone coverage guy.

He does, but that still doesn't mean we deserve comparison with defensive Head Coached teams that have been bad offenses. Sean was part of identifying their franchise Quarterback and has had good offenses. Where Cowherd is right is that the Bills haven't built enough around Josh. I think this offseason they have finally tried to rectify that. I said last offseason that they hadn't done enough up front with Saffold and Bates. I am more optimistic about McGovern, Edwards and Torrance. Kincaid is a shot at adding a genuine passing game weapon with an early pick. Do they have the best offensive roster of the AFC contenders? No. But I am confident they have closed that gap this spring. And spending a couple of mil on a pass rusher is neither here or there in that context anyway.

I think there is a 5th too.... he is a low key personality. He isn't a rah-rah guy. Bruce Arians got a second chance as an older coach (okay he had a more successful first stint) because he was an offensive guy and because he is more of an uplifter that people get behind. Leslie's not that type. He is really smart, really respected, but if you want to turn around a franchise is he the personality type to do that?

Yea. I agree re. Evans. I think he is and always has been excellent but the volume you will need on the basis of pure accumulation is only going to keep increasing and he has been unfortunate to play on a franchise that has been mainly irrelevant, save for the last 3 years, and while Evans has been good for them in the playoffs, averages over 70 yards per game, he doesn't have that signature clutch playoff moment to define his legacy. Think he very likely ends up in the Hall of Very Good. If he were to come to the Bills to chase the HoF it would likely be that signature moment that he would need as much as more yardage accumulation. Being on a SB winning Bills team and having a Gabe Davis v KC type playoff performance in a big win would give him a shot.

Percentage of cap Kyle's AAV in 2008 was about 4%. Ed's AAV as a % now is about 7%.

He is way too old and replacebale to extend him before the season IMO. He did play well last year but he is a guy who you will have no issue extending after the season and before FA if you wish to.