GunnerBill

If you cut him today all his guarantees ($31m) accelerate onto this year's cap and he costs you $3.2m more to NOT play for you in 2024 than he would to play for you. That makes no sense paying a 1,000 yard receiver to go away. That would clear Diggs from the cap for 2025 and beyond but makes no sense. If you cut him after the start of the league year as a post 1 June cut it gains you $19m in 2024 space but all the remaining hits accelerate onto the 2025 cap. It would save you $5m of space on the 2025 cap (he's account just for the $22m of dead money and not the entire $27m he is slated to cost next year) but it saves you nothing additional to what cutting him after 2024 would. The problem with scenario 2 is you can't spend that money until after 1 June. So you cut Diggs after the point the chance to replace him is gone. I think by far the most sensible outcome is the Bills do nothing with his contract this spring, do no restructure him or kick the can further and re-visit it next January. At that point cutting him, trading him, or restructuring him should all be on the table depending on where we are with his performance and his level of commitment to the team.

I don't think they planned to draft a tight end. They planned to draft a receiver but knew they needed a weapon for Josh and Dalton is more a receiver than a two way tight end in any event at this point. Of his 784 offensive snaps in 2023 he only played tight end on 247 of those and almost 50% came in the five games Knox missed. He was 50% a slot receiver, 31% a tight end, 18% split wide and 1% in the backfield. So I don't think they drafted him for his tight end skill so much as they drafted him for his pass catching. Not that I'm arguing receiving tight ends and wide receivers are completely interchangeable, they are not. And while the Bills played a fair amount of 12 personnel in 2023 they have to remain balanced with 11. But I don't think they were planning to replace Knox going into the 2023 draft, or coming out of it. However, where they are now I'm not sure they are going to be able to be a 60% plus 12 personnel team. But equally I don't think you can yet go heavy 11 with Dalton Kincaid and have the flexibility to run or pass down to down. They are going to have to be a bit more package specific with them in the short term. I suspect another year of both of them, let Kincaid work on his blocking (there was some improvement as 2023 wore on) and then next spring I can imagine them taking calls for Knox for a mid round pick. As long as he continues to be an effective redzone weapon (and at the moment in the redzone I think Knox is still BETTER than Kincaid) he will have trade value. On the pass receiving back thing I think you have more of a point about there being a disconnect somewhere. Beane has obsessed over pass catching backs since he has been here. They have had multiple goes at filling that role - from TJ Yeldon, to the guy they tried to get from Washington (McKissic), to drafting Cook and talking specifically about his ability as a receiver to trading for Hines. But they have never truly committed to it as part of their offense. Check downs are not actually Josh's strongest suit. His ball placement is better 25 yards downfield than it is sometimes on those check down routes. Joe Brady used the back a lot both at LSU and at Carolina, and showed signs of committing to it last year when he took over so maybe finally they will be in sync - and if Cook can clean up the concentration drops in the redzone they could be onto something. But that will be after at least 5 years of trying! The other area where I have always felt they were muddled in their thinking is the type of oline they wanted and tried to build. They veered from big physical run graders, to athletic guys who can move laterally, and ended up with a cobbled together mess for about 3 seasons. That can only be a disconnect Beane and the coaching staff as to scheme and style. I think they have consistently wanted to build a zone run game but that is really hard with a Quarterback who wants to be in the gun as much as Josh. I dunno, just feel like Daboll and Dorsey were both culpable for trying to force something that wasn't working and McDermott and Beane were ultimately culpable for not setting a clearer direction of travel.

It hurts their cap in 2024 without really doing anything to improve it in 2025. If this was a take the pain in 2024 because it helps us next year idea, fine. But it doesn't.

And if Knox hadn't missed a third of the year with wrist surgery? Honestly the people using 2023 as proof that they were "right" on Dawson Knox are premature in the extreme.

I thought Baker was better than the Browns too, but in the same NFC South the year before he lost the starting job with the Panthers. His stock was at an all time low last offseason. I'm happy for him he had the year he did, I've always thought Baker was a decent QB. But still on paper that division was wide open for the Saints to win last year and I'd have made the same decision they did in terms of going for it. They lost out on H2Hs with the Buccs. I'd go again this year because the Buccs will likely lose some pieces too and then at that point if you are not in position I'd tear down next spring.

White doesn't have the skillset to play strong safety and play in the box but he has the skillset to play free safety and indeed coming out a few very respected evaluators thought that would be his position in the NFL. If one of our corners ends up playing safety in 2024 it will be Tre White. Elam is a total non-starter. Safety accentuates the things he does badly at corner and minimises the things he does well. So he'd be a disaster there. Benford is a young, ascending corner so that is absolutely a guy you don't move and Douglas is too much of a gambler to play safety where you need to have a bit more caution in your mindset of when to attack and when to read and react. I am not saying it WILL happen, but I do think Tre could play Micah's role. And if the Bills bring him back (interestingly Joe B's roster primer live stream on Friday evening on The Athletic he doubled down on the theory he and I share about what the best solution is on White's contract... and the fact he isn't going to be in a position to pass a medical before his bonus becomes due makes it more likely) I can see them potentially trying it. It might save them FA dollars on a safety.

They didn't sign Jones they drafted him.

Meh. I think the Saints did the right thing. They kicked the can relentlessly to load up for a last go with Drew Brees and Sean Payton and but for the worst non-call of all time that might have worked out. It didn't. They have prolonged it by continuing to try and win post Brees in comparison to New England who that first year post Brady had a "take our medicine" year and then rebounded when Mac was a rookie, spent a bit in FA, put some pieces around him and won 10 games and made the playoffs - even though that relative success couldn't be sustained (mainly because they have drafted so poorly). But I sort of defend the Saints in doing that because they were in a division that, especially this year, looked very winnable. I still think the division is attainable for them with a good season and they still have some talented players so I'd run it back once more. But if they fail to make the post season again then next spring is a take your medicine season and you move on from Lattimore, Kamara, Ramcyzk, Jordan etc and it probably means the team you field in 2025 is going to be in contention for the #1 pick. Which just so happens to coincide with the point at which you can move on from Derek Carr and pick your QB of the future in the 2026 draft. It's likely your 2026 team will still suck a bit because you will be paying money to people who no longer play for you but as we have seen with Cincinnati and to a lesser extent Jacksonville in recent years the "suck, get your QB, suck again and load up" model is one that can pay some dividends. I understand those who would not have done the Carr thing and would have started taking their medicine already. But the NFL is an entertainment product. You have to keep the fans coming and when you have a shot to win and make the playoffs you should try and win. It would have been different if they were in a division with the Eagles or the Cowboys... but Brady had gone, there was no super team in the NFC South and nobody expected Baker to bounce back as he did. So I think trying to win was the right move.

I have said that for me it depends on where they really feel Stef is at. If they think he is truly on the downslope I'd be willing to commit $5-7m AAV for 2 year (maybe with a void year to spread some cash out). If they think Stef is still elite I'd pass on a mid range vet and just draft two from this clsss.

It is tight. I did my workings out in another thread recently and got to about $20m, but that was on the assumed $242m cap and included cutting Von (June 1) and Mitch Morse. I can now see a route to keeping Mitch and either a restructure adding a void year or even possibly a paycut (I think Mitch will only carry on playing in Buffalo, if it isn't here I guess he retires so maybe he'd be willing to take a bit less than the $6.8m base salary he is due i.e. the bit of the contract that isn't guaranteed). So on the $255m cap.... I think you can do it. But it doesn't leave a lot of space for signings and aside from a 1T and a safety where I think they will need to bring in at least starting calibre players (or retain Jones at 1T) they will need to sign a handful of other vet minimum types to provide some depth competition going into camp.

Fair.

Yea I have already corrected that. I agree in specific terms, you are right. But everything they did in terms of building picks for 2018 was about getting their Quarterback. So you are right they didn't use that actual pick but I still think at the point they traded back in 2017 it was about what they needed to get their guy (which turned out to be Josh).

Nah that was Leonard Johnson. Wright was here the same year but was mainly a backup. He played a bit outside when EJ missed some games. He might have played some nickel too.

Good point.

Hmm. Good call on Adams. Think they did.

Clowney maybe? I think Clowney and Frank Clark were the same year. Can't recall one since.

The Dolphins will not win the AFC East unless Josh Allen misses significant time. They are not that good and they fold like a pack of cards when the going gets tough. They are more likely to finish under .500 in 2024 than to win the division IMO.

Confidence back? What about his ability to move back?

Correct for those early days of free agency guys. But I suspect the Bills would have, and still will, be very quiet in that period. I am thinking max 3 guys (a starting calibre safety, a depth wide receiver and a 1T defensive tackle - if Jones is not kept) more likely 1 or 2. The reason it helps teams like the Bills more is because it gives more freedom to operate in the dust settled free agent market. Those contracts typically don't keep up with the cap inflation to the same level. It basically gives them the freedom to make a Leonard Floyd type move in May or June which was going to be tricky previously. They will restructure Knox - 100%. They won't touch Miller. I think they will really try not to touch Diggs too. Jones is almost a certainty to be back in KC IMO. Sneed might be trickier. He is a hard decision for KC. He has played 1 year of full time outside corner. He was a top 5 or 6 guy this year but can him a top outside corner rate based on one year? Before that he was a slot. If he wants top of the market money I suspect they'd let him walk.

It isn't this year that concerns me so much - they can definitely afford them this year. But Tee at c.$22m AAV and Chase at a market re-setting $32m (could even be more if JJ gets done first)... when you add that to Joe Burrow it makes it tight in future years, especially with an owner who wants to be cash to cap and doesn't necessarily have the means to keep writing those big bonus checks to restructure year after year.

Yea but they are going to have to pay Chase this year. The elite guys want paying as soon as they come due now - after year 3. If they don't pay Chase expect it to get tense quite quickly. Now the way you do that normally is you give him a huge chunk of change as a bonus so that it doesn't make a big dent in the cap until after the rookie contract years are done. But Mike Brown is a cash to cap guy. He doesn't have deep pockets to start throwing a lot of money around up front and then just account for it on the cap over the long term. It just makes it tricky. I don't think this is the right play by the Bengals (and I have always liked Tee a lot) unless they are going to try the much talked about, rarely executed, tag and trade option turn that 3rd round comp pick into a 1st or high 2nd maybe?

As I understand it he never wanted to retire. The doctors at Washington wouldn't clear him to play. They essentially retired him. Hence he entered there transfer portal looking for somewhere he had a shot at getting cleared to play. Now does the neck injury make him potentially a higher risk of reinjuring and properly being done? Yes. How much higher that risk is will be the question and each team's doctors will be all over his medicals. But if the medicals get the green light I don't see him as any greater risk of retiring through choice than any other player who potentially gets a serious injury. And as @Dr. Who alludes to above it is not a good edge class in terms of depth. It is the top 3 who are all legit first rounders - Turner, Verse and Latu. Then there is a second tier that probably goes Chop Robinson Brice, Braswell. Then I have tier 3 as Isaac and Elliss. And that is basically it in terms of guys I would be willing to take before late day 3. Probably only 8 edge guys in the top 150 players or so in this class. EDIT: the one other guy I suppose is Darius Robinson. Pure tape evaluation I see him as a 5tech who is too stiff to play as a true edge but he had a great senior bowl week and there probably will be teams who feel he can be a 4-3 end or do some stand up rushing from outside in a 3-4. I get that. It is pure projection though based on the tape.

No, you are right... 2nd first turned into Tremaine now I think more specfically. It was our 1st, our 2nd, the Watkins 2nd and Cordy Glenn to get up for Josh. Their 1st and our 3rd (or possibly the Tyrod 3rd, don't recall) for Tremaine. I suppose I tend to think everything they did in terms of collecting assets for that draft was about getting their Quarterback, slightly regardless of how the exact pic exchanges worked out but you are right in factual terms Josh wasn't from the Mahomes pick.

Kansas City won the trade. Without question. They drafted the best QB in football. But the Bills did about as good a job losing a trade as you could ever do. An all pro corner and then a pick that helped them land the 2nd best QB in football the following year.

Yes but that is why kicking the can on deals is good cap management. Because that isn't money that keeps up with the cap and salary inflation. It is moving money on old deals around. So say moving $12m of a deal signed in 2024 into chunks of $4m in 25, 26, 27 gradually devalues that money as a percentage of cap year on year.