GunnerBill

I think Tez will go round 3 at the earliest.

Brandon Beane is always worth a listen because he is a straight shooter and sometimes probably tells you more than he should. Having listened to his presser and his huddle with the Buffalo media here are my takeaways: 1. They are going to add a receiver early but it doesn't have to be a specific type and he doesn't have to have a specific skillset. They are going to evaluate all these guys in the round and the one they take will be because they think he is the best available at their spot and the value matches the round; 2. Von Miller is on the team in 2024. I know we all suspected that anyway, some of us hoped it wasn't necessarily the case but the Bills are doubling down; 3. Rasul Douglas is not the absolute lock to be back I think most of us assumed. He twice went immediately to past tense when talking about him "I liked what he brought to our defense" and "it was a pleasure getting to know him." Now neither of those definitely mean he is gone, but there are ways of making those same points without phrasing in the past tense and as I said at the start sometimes Beane tells you more than he means to. It definitely made my ears prick up. He is almost $10m of pure savings with zero dead cap if they cut him. I'm not saying I expect them to but I thought the tense he used was interesting. 4. They are not going to use their 1st round pick on a safety. Beane was pretty clear that at that spot he thinks about smarts and study habits and not 40 times and athletic profiles. I think that screamed to be they are going to take a guy who is good on tape not good in shorts. 5. Don't expect them to draft OL early and do expect them to extend Dion. I also would not be at all surprised if they extend Spencer Brown before the season. He seemed very happy with the situation up front.

I think Murphy will be gone in reality but good question. I love the two defensive tackles at the top of this class - Newton and Murphy. They are my kind of defensive tackle, quick penetrators, aggressive and good with their hands. But I think both have to play 3T and Ed Oliver was the best player not name Josh Allen on our team in 2023. I don't know that with our roster as it is we can afford to spend our 1st round pick on the position manned by our best non-Quarterback of the past season. So if that situation arises I think the play is trade back, collect picks... but don't go beyond say #40 unless you are getting significant ammo to come back up with.

I've just watched it too and I agree with you. They are not looking for a the best explosive receiver. They are going to look for the best receiver taking everything into account. I don't think it is one thing above all others. They are going to evaluate it in the round and take the guy they think is the best.

That is definitely a legit concern. 23 and one year of production. Those guys do not have a great track record. But equally I am not sure there is a proven causal link that says they never can - and indeed @DCOrange's list has a couple of guys in Jennings and McLaurin who have been really good NFL receivers - so you have to pick a guy like that with your eyes open to the risks but still judge them on their merits.

He is but he has been a "must get an X" guy at times too. Had to have an edge in 2021, had to have a corner in 2022, had to have a pass catcher in 2023. I know he got all those in round 1... but I think he knows he has to get out of the first two rounds with a receiver and they have talked a lot about explosiveness. I don't see a single scenario where Worthy is in contention at #28. But in a scenario where they go elsewhere at #28 I could see a scenario where he is in play in round 2. Again, not my ideal scenario. I suspect not theirs either. But a possibility all the same.

I'd be out on Worthy round 1. But if we were to go another direction round 1 - edge is the only other spot I feel like is really in the mix - and the run on receivers were to continue early in round 2 and it were Worthy or none of the early round guys then in that scenario I'm open to him. But he is a #2 receiver in my view. Not someone who you take and start as a #2 with the hope he ends up developing into your #1 post Diggs. He is just a #2 who plays flanker and you move about the formation.

Yep. An outside guy earlier and a versatile guy with inside / outside flex in the mid rounds IMO. That is the ideal outcome. Obviously you have to take the draft as it comes and not reach for guys, but in the ideal scenario that is the way I'd play receiver here.

But Bates was committed to as a starter. That was my issue with their 2022 approach. He is a guy who can start and not get destroyed. But he is not a guy who you can start and expect him to improve one of the poorest lines in football. They needed upgrades and settled for a baseline player.

Yea they can but basically the implication is the same.... whether they cut him pre-medical or cut him post medical but also post guarantee activating they end up with their 2024 cap savings reduced from roughly 6 to 4.5.

I wasn't saying talent isn't talent. That wasn't really my point, it was that one of the impressive things about Legette is that he beats teams even when they are selling out to stop him. I wasn't diminishing the other guys, I was saying it is something that impresses me about Legette. Although I am lower on Thomas than you. I think he is in the mix with the second tier guys not close to the top tier guys. He could go in the top 20 I think - late teens to late 20s is his range. But if I'm a team after a long term #1 I wonder whether he can do enough.

All the best teams pretty much do now. I crunched the numbers on this recently. KC have three who played high 60s percentage wise, but the majority of teams have one guy playing 65-75% and then 1 or 2 in the mid 50s and a load of rotation beneath that. The issue is the Bills haven't had cheap guys in that rotation. It has been decent FA deals or high picks. One of KC's three heavy usage guys is Mike Danna - a 5th round pick. That is the kind of thing we need, some cheap, young guys capable of being in that 7 or 8 man rotation.

I largely agree but Ed Oliver was good every year except year 2. He didn't get the gaudy sack numbers until this year but his underlying analytics pressures and pass rush win rate show he was still affecting the pocket plenty.

Yea they can't cut him without the additional guarantee coming into place. That was my point. I was trying to keep it quite simple.

Teams can dump as many contracts as they like and not have to pay players anything further. When a team cuts a player the money that is left behind on the cap is money ALREADY paid. If the Bills cut Von tomorrow they don't own him a single extra penny. The dead cap is all money he already has.

Basically the easy way to think about it is dead money is money that has been paid already but not accounted for on the cap yet.

But they can't cut him until he can pass a medical by which time the additional guarantee has triggered and the money saved by cutting him is reduced further... which is a further reason why they should negotiate in exactly the way you say.

And to add to what @DCOrange says above - I completely agree with him that the age and single year of college production are legit "flags" on Legette's profile. I agree that the track record of guys with that profile coming into the NFL is not stellar. But I think his 2023 film is very good and it is very good despite him being a one man offense. There was nobody else among the passing game weapons at South Carolina who will even play on Sundays. Teams were focussed on trying to take Legette away, especially by mid-season - the Florida game stood out to me.... it was almost as if the defenses were only playing Legette and he still had a big day. That is where to me he is just more impressive than some of other guys in the 2nd/3rd tier of this class - he had to stand up week after week and make the plays and be the alpha. Sure the two Texas kids have their merits but they also helped one another. Brian Thomas's production was definitely helped by Malik Nabers playing opposite him, Polk was opposite Odunze and even Franklin had Tez Johnson who has a chance to be a day 2 type pick next year to pick up some slack. I am not surprised Todd McShay is describing him as a polarizing prospect. I think he will be exactly that. I think he will likely go in the first half of round 2, that is my prediction. There will be some teams that wouldn't touch him until round 3, I suspect that is right, but it only takes 1 to like him enough to go early and I think there will be. But honestly tape grade he is my WR4, I have him Franklin and Thomas basically in a muddle with late 1st and borderline 1st/2nd type grades and if Legette were to disappoint at the combine I could flip that some... I think he is a player who needs to perform well this week. He will still be in that little cluster for me but those 3 guys are close enough on tape to my eye that the testing profile will matter some to the order they end up in.

He can play Center, yep. Was a good signing. I said at the time we made much better OL moves last offseason - signing McGovern and drafting Torrence - than the year before - signing Saffold and committing to Bates.

I think Legette will run faster than McConkey.

Great career. He can still write and be a thought provoking columnist.... but everyone has a sell by date. Go while people are still sorry to see you leave.

I don't think Bryce is top tier and the rest of their WRs aside from Wilson suck balls.

So would I if it were on offer. It is a long shot but that is the only way to me that moving Diggs this year is sensible. This time next year I think it is much more feasible that the Bills and Stef part company.

Round 3 is the earliest IMO.

I don't know where you saw those numbers but they are not correct. Any movement of Diggs now escalates his full guarantee onto the 2024 cap and costs us additional money. You are right on the $18.5m actual cash saving if he is traded but Pegula isn't someone who has been bothered by actusl cash thus far. Hence Beane has had the freedom to maximise the cap flexibility. I suppose there is one way that makes sense which is a post 1 June trade player for player for problem children receivers. Say Diggs for AJ Brown straight up if both want out. We could absorb AJ's contract within the $19m cap space we make for Stef. Not totally sure the Eagles can do the same because they only save about $2m in 2024 space from a post 1 June trade of AJ and Stef would still cost $18.5m base even leaving his dead money here. There are ways of resolving that potentially so something like that is feasible but it is a complete long shot.