GunnerBill

I don't see them cutting Gilliam AND Neal. That would mean losing their three best special teamers in one fell swoop and I don't think they are going to do that. I know fans disregard special teams but NFL teams don't. Matakevich is gone and I'm not expecting him back, the question is can they afford both Gilliam and Neal. I suspect not. But their gunner play took a noticeable drop off last year with no Taiwan Jones so that possibly makes Neal even more important. On the other hand Reggie Gilliam is kind of three players in one - core special teamer (particularly on punt team where he plays wing protector), fullback when they use one and emergency tight end. In the middle of last year they had got away from him totally on offense and I'd have said that made him more expendable but then Brady re-integrated him a bit. I don't know. I don't expect both back, but I think one of them will be. I also still think a pay cut is more likely than an outright cut with Tre White. My reasons are set out extensively elsewhere on the forum. Otherwise I think broadly you have players in the right categories.

I don't think DT is too bad depth wise and in any event the only guys you'd spend a first on are Newton and Murphy who are 3Techs that I don't think you are drafting that high to play 30-40% of the snaps behind and occasionally next to (on pure passing downs) Ed Oliver. Edge is worse. The class is not deep at all. But at the same time unless one of the top 3 guys drops to them at #28 (in which case they should pick them because they will almost certainly be the BPA) then I don't think there is a guy likely to make sense. Although as I've said before I imagine the Bills liking Chop Robinson. He just strikes me as their type. Athletic freak, 9.68 RAS....

I mean he also said he expects to win a Superbowl. So you have to consider what he said in the round.

I don't buy the gas tank being empty stuff. Ed didn't play his best game against KC, which is unusual because actually he has generally been really good against them. His previous 5 games vs KC (regular season and playoffs) he has had 6 pressures, 4 knockdowns, 2 pass breakups, 1.5 sacks and 4 TFLs. He generally plays really well against them. The 13 second game he was unquestionably our best defender. Kansas City's interior oline is really good - that is definitely a fact and Kansas City's plan was largely to get the ball out early Mahomes time to throw was down on recent meetings vs the Bills - but Ed just didn't play his best game. I think he'd be the first to tell you that.

Yes. He is totally a pure slot. There is no way he can win outside consistently against NFL corners. Not only do I think 5'11 is slightly wishful thinking (let's see what the Combine measurement is) he has shorter arms and that more than anything else is a limiting factor for the outside.

It is certainly a bit the risky swing they took on Miller. It is a bit that they haven't weaned themsleves off the middle class vet backups but also, in fairness to Beane, it is still a bit decisions they had to make to deal with the cap going backwards in covid. It hurt teams like the Bills more than most in that they were trying to do the mega deal with their Quarterback in the same period as navigating a reduced cap and so they weren't as able to do what you normally do which is front load a few contracts of other guys into that window where Josh is on the new deal but his annual hits stay low. Other guys they were extending at that time like Dawkins, Milano and Taron were all deals that pushed the bigger cap hit down the road and here we are at the back end of those contracts with them all on bigger numbers. Had the cap continued to rise at the normal rate in 2020 and 2021 I think you'd be at least $15m or so better off in cap terms from having accounted for some higher numbers on those deals earlier in the piece. That would still leave us over the cap so the first two factors which are entirely of the Bills own making are not diminished. Beane is definitely culpable. But some of the excuse he makes for himself is legit. As for void years generally - it's always been done and always been allowed but normally infrequently. Since the Covid cap restriction there has been an explosion in their use league wide. The Bills are far from alone in this. It will be interesting when we get another year or two out from Covid and those deals signed in 2020 and 2021 start to come off teams' dockets whether the void years trend disappears (or reduces back to what it was) or whether now it is here as a cap management staple it just continues being used at the current rate.

Not correct. I have replied to your thread.

Void years exist to spread money ALREADY PAID in real terms out for accounting purposes on the cap. We are not "already paying" Floyd $4m this year. We paid him $9m for last year. It is just half the money is accounted for this year.

No. Von.

He didn't have his best game against KC and what they showed is what the case most of the year and particularly down the stretch when Floyd completely collapsed. When Ed wasn't it the Dline disappeared. It's also worth saying that the interior of KC's line is the best in football. I love Newton. I think he is getting missed in a lot of the chatter. I have a top 10 grade on him. I don't see him necessarily as a fit for the Bills because I think, like Byron Murphy the other first round DT, he is really a 3T and that is where Ed plays. I don't see the Bills with their holes using their first round pick on a spot where one of their top 5 players is the undisputed starter.

My guy! So happy for the success Matt Miller has had. He is a really good evaluator and he is a good dude. I'm pretty much self taught in my amateur attempts at evaluating prospects but of the stuff I have learnt from others most of it is from Matt. When ESPN let Todd McShay go it was like an NFL team cutting a veteran receiver right after it drafted a stud in the first round of the draft - get younger, cheaper and a higher ceiling.

I agree the need now is for an X. I think Stef should transition much more to the Z and even to the slot in certain packages and I think Joe Brady went much more in that direction than Dorsey who was still using Stef as the X plenty in the first half of the year.

The Bills actually mixed up a lot whether Stef was the X or Gabe was the X. They both played the X and both played the Z. They were used relatively interchangeably. I think it did start to slant towards Gabe between Joe taking over and Gabe getting hurt.

There is a pretty well respected methodology for grading mocks (although there are multiple ways to do it and you can cut it multiple ways) Fantasy Pros. Here is the link to their grading from last year: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/mock-drafts.php but I have never seen anything going back and critiquing big boards.

Definitely true for the guys getting 1st, 2nd and 3rd round grades from the advisory committee - but if you have an NIL offer and are getting a day 3 grade from the advisory committee I would imagine it makes the incentive to go back to school, taking that money, and hoping to improve your draft stock in a further year even more attractive than it was before NIL and the money was a factor.

Pittman was never getting out of Indy.

Matakevich still exists on the cap but it is void year dead money.

Yea that would make sense because I confess that wasn't something that jumped out at me on Mitchell.

I actually found the bit at the end of the video the most interesting about fits and the role of the X vs the Z in the NFL and college. He did have some interesting takes on the receivers though. Called both Texas kids body catchers.

On the point about this draft..... it is definitely a stronger class at the top than the last couple. I am at 20 true first round grades. Last year was particularly low with 11 - but generally in recent years I've ended up at about 18. I think it is a good group through rounds 2 and 3 as well. Last year's draft my 100th best grade was a mid to late 4th. I think very conceivable based where I am at so far that my 100th grade could well be a full round higher. Does it drop off some? Possibly, a bit. I think there are players there in the later rounds but they are older prospects. They are 5th and 6th year guys where the physical potential is maxed out. I don't think there are many guys there you are taking a late flier on and thinking "this kid is raw but I can turn him into something" it is much more "this kid is what he is and his ceiling is a backup / contributor on STs." So I'd describe day 3 as more safe floors than normal, fewer high ceilings than normal.

We do hold all the cards, I agree. It is why I think a paycut is the most likely option.

The Tre savings are not the simple (complicated by the injury) and in reality unless he can pass a medical before the league year starts in two weeks the max save there is $4.5m. A pay cut is still the way to go on Tre IMO. They could try and trade Douglas, that's true. They could still keep him. They could cut him. I was just taken by Beane's phrasing. I thought Douglas was a lock for a short extension to spread money. Maybe they have had those conversations and they haven't gone well.

He broke his leg. You can break your leg whether you are 5'9 or 6'5. He looks borderline undraftable to me.

They are very aligned. But I posted the numbers the other week I think by and large Beane's draft priorities reflect a man who learned his trade under Harney and Gettleman in Carolina. They relentlessly picked DLine and linebackers early, only took three receivers in the first 3 rounds over the course of a decade and until Ekwonu hadn't taken a first round OL in nearly 20 years. So I think some of it is the influence of coaching... but some of it is just this is who Beane is and how he believes in building a team.

That is the bit I dispute. There were times last year when his level of discomfort just moving was concerning. I hope I am wrong. But I can't see Von making an impact in 2024.