GunnerBill

Only $10m dead for Tre after this year. Designated as post June and split in two that is very affordable. If he doesn't look good this year he is done after the season. No way they are cutting AJE. He had his best season last year, actually post Von was our most effective rusher and is still cheap as chips on the final year of his rookie deal. Groot, Von, Floyd and AJE are nailed on as our top 4 edge guys IMO.

I mean they basically did. He never played for the Bills again.

I have never thought Latavius Murray would make the 53. I still don't.

But might be proof that he isn't "terrible at it" which was the point I was disagreeing with.

It was posted in a thread the other day. His 4th down decision making in terms of impact above expected on results he was *I think* 6th in the NFL and one of only a handful who was in the positive on that metric. Maybe someone else will remember where exactly it was posted.

Sometimes those factors are relevant and sometimes they are not. Nothing anyone has said in this thread has even got close to demonstrating causation. None of the other examples given are anything like the example we are talking about. Because in all those other cases people have been able to look at the pattern, investigate the commonalities and ascertain the extent to which there is a causation. Whereas nobody has provided any such analysis here. So I agree with that. Unfortunately that isn't causation either. And what Reid and Reeves have in common is they were fired after missing the playoffs. In Reid's case his final 2 years and in Reeves' case 3 of his final 5. If McDermott did that he'd be fired. No doubt. But in neither of those cases did patience just expire. In both the results took a significant donwturn.

There are. But whereas the factors that affect climate and weather are the same underlying factors year on year - though not necessarily to the ssme degrees. But the factors are not anywhere near as consistent between each one of the HC/QB situations that have tried more than 5 times and failed. And that is why it could easily be coincidence. It is a pattern. I don't dismiss that. But I see no evidence of any causation.

Because one has external factors that make that pattern considerably more likely to repeat. With the other it could just as likely be coincidence, and none of the arguments put forward in this threat really take it beyond "there is a pattern".

That isn't a good comparison though. Because there are reasons for rainfall levels and why they tend not to diverge much from the mean. The coach / QB not winning SB thing is an interesting pattern, but there is no reason beyond that pattern to suggest that there couldn't be outliers. It is an interesting stat to reflect on but I am not persuaded there is any causation. I don't think it makes the Bills any more or less likely to win the Superbowl in 2023.

Except the data does not support that.

Yea last year is probably my worst set of Bolds since I have been on this forum. To be fair I feel better about this year's but who knows?

0/8. And to be honest I wasn't that close on any.

They were. They were playing their best football when it mattered. We were most definitely not.

Yea. They are a streaky team. I don't mean that in a bad way either. They are just that kind of time who can look a bit messy for a run and then suddenly click for a run.

Yea. Bastards. I thought it was coming in until about week 9 too.

Nah I think they are sufficiently bold. Bold doesn't mean fantasy land.

Think all those are viable for sure.

I considered the Seahawks one too. I am tempted to even add "and the Bills are ranked #1 on offense" to the Allen one. I think Josh will play his most consistent season at least since 2020, Dorsey will be better in year 2 and this will be the best oline he has had in Buffalo (a middle of the pack unit). That combination could lead to us being uber explosive.

I always do eight in total. Four Bills and four non-Bills. Four non-Bills: - Saints to win the NFC South and make the NFCCG; - Russell Wilson benched before the season ends for performance reasons; - All four AFC North teams to finish the regular season with winning records; - The Green Bay Packers (not the upstart Lions or the reigning champion Vikings) to win the NFC North. Four Bills specific: - Gabriel Davis leads the Bills in touchdown receptions (regular season); - Jordan Phillips is not on the Bills by week 18; - Dorian Williams starts at linebacker and garners defensive rookie of the year votes; - Josh Allen has a career low in rushing attempts and interceptions (regular season).

It isn't about offense vs defense or passing vs running or physical vs finesse. It is about the way the game is called and what you can do as a result. There is no doubt in my mind it was easier to move the ball through the air in 2010 than in 2001 and it is easier in 2023 than it was in 2010. And that is the period I feel qualified to speak on. That is because the way the rules have tightened and are now applied just makes it easier.

They didn't shut McVay's Rams down by holding. They shut them down with scheme and the bear front in particular. You could not play defense the way they played it against the Greatest Show on Turf now. I had never seen that Superbowl before. It was the last one before I started watching the league. But it was like a different sport. They just held, bumped, held, cut blocked... pretty much ever pass attempt would draw a flag now if you tried to play defense that way.

His turnovers DID keep the Dolphins game close. His brilliant plays also WERE the main reason we won. The two in that case are not mutually exclusive.

Yea while the league had already started down the road of making the passing game easier it hadn't made much progress in the early 00s - witness the Patriots "holding" quite literally the Greatest Show on Turf in the Superbowl. The 2004 changes were, essentially, and admission that what they had tried before had not had the desired effect. I watched that Superbowl back on NFLN a few weeks ago when the replayed it. It bears little resemblence to the way you can play defense today. Witness the penalty called on the Eagles at the end of this year's.

Zero chance. I think the other 3 main North American sports all suck.

I'm here for the dick pic. Hope it is more impressive than Brett's.