GunnerBill

Ah okay. I had a go but didn't read all the rules first. I scored 377. I also went 9/9 but I didn't realise the aim was the most obscure people to fit the category. I went for Mayfield, Carr and Allen as the 3,000 yard passers which no doubt upped my number. I did get two less than 5%s though without trying haha.

Having the best play caller in football helps the Chiefs run their offense with middling receivers, as does their all world tight end. Will be interesting as Kelce slows down to see if they can maintain the middling receivers model. The other success story that was HOF QB, all world TE and middling receivers was decisively not the same once that all world tight end "retired." Granted Pat will be a lot younger than Tom when that happens with Kelce. But still worth watching.

I don't think of Josh as a running Quarterback.

The thing is the next two years he will be cheap in cap terms whatever the big contract number. So if they want to keep Higgins and Chase they can front load those deals a bit cap wise. I don't think they will be able to keep Tee though. Not just because of money. I think he not only wants to be paid as a #1 I think he wants to be used as a #1. Similar to how Diggs felt in Minnesota as a 1B.

Good as a rookie. Came in out of shape his second season, got hurt and he has been hurt and fat ever since.

Agreed. And if he wants to have then I'd hope to see him coming to camp in the shape of his life.

Teams make changes to their staff after the season. That is absolutely standard practice. Firing Salgado does absolutely not suggest that the team were blaming him for the Bengals loss. Normally when a position coach is fired that decision has been made for a number of weeks before the season ends. And as I have said, while injuries and inexperience played their part our safety play last season was not good. None of us can honestly know how attributable that was to Salgado. I dare say the people who watched him work with his players day in and day out had a better feel for that. You asked do we think the replacement will be better? I don't know. I don't know a ton about Joe Danna and the couple of people I have reached out to who have been in the league and have contacts and they haven't come across him either. But he is certainly more experienced than Salgado. Why do you suppose he will be worse?

It proves the Pro Bowl is a joke based on name recognition and not performance. Saffold sucks. He has honestly never been that good. How he has had the career he has remains an utter mystery to me.

He is the classic case for don't judge a player after 1 year. He sucked as a rookie. Rounded into a very good, borderline elite LT.

So you only think someone answers directly when they agree with you? How convenient. D- do better.

I suppose my question on the data is as above, how are sites recording it? Is ostensibly 12 personnel that then comes and lines up in 21 recorded as 12 or 21? Yea when I say tight end I mean a traditional Y on the end of the line of scrimmage. An F to my thought is more of an H-Back who is going to line up in the backfield, in the slot and occasionally inline - I'm not sure I really see Kincaid doing that either. I think he is going to play the vast majority of his snaps in the slot. 25% is my top end for him playing on the end of the line. I expect it will be a little below that. I think Knox will continue to be on the field 80% of the snaps or more. He averages about 85% the past two years when healthy. It might take a little dip, but I don't think it will dip much.

I don't know that Shula and Holcomb are going to be key decision makers. The way teams actually use the Senior Assistant title varies greatly from guys who are intently involved in game planning and play calling to guys who work almost exclusively on special projects scouting future opponents and following trends in the league. Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. McDermott, Washington and Dorsey are, that is beyond doubt. As for your question after that, if you are asking me what they have done well, I think with McDermott it is self-evident. I think with Dorsey his first year as a coordinator was a pretty successful one, as for Washington - fair, I think he sucked as the DC in Carolina when he got that gig and while it is always hard to equate position coach impact with position performance it is completely fair to say our defensive line didn't wow anyone last season.

There were rumours about Mahomes agitating for a new deal in February and March. He ultimately came out and killed them, but they came from somewhere. Will be interesting to see when a formal re-negotiation (not just restructures) takes place. After 2025 (a year ahead of Allen) would be my guess. If it comes earlier that might have a knock on effect for us.

Mike Gesicki is the classic example. Last year he played like 28% of his snaps as a tight end and that was the highest since his rookie year. He is not a tight end in any meaningful way. He is a big slot receiver. When the NFL famously ruled against Jimmy Graham's claim that he should be considered a wide receiver for franchise tag purposes (after a season where he played in the slot or split wide on 67% of his plays) the critical argument was that Graham when in the slot was normally still covered by a linebacker. But fast forward ten years and you see teams covering 'slot tight ends' with DBs with increasingly regularity. If teams want to try and cover Kincaid with a linebacker then be my guest. I'm also not sure how the websites that track personnel groupings do it. For instance, if a team comes out in what looks like 12 personnel and then the Tight End lines up as a full back is that recorded as 12 or is it recorded as 21? To me it is misleading to record that as 12. If Knox were to miss a game could I see Kincaid's tight end usage ticking up for that game.... yes, sure... he might get up to 40/50% as a tight end in that one specific game. But that isn't his strength or what he is good at.

Yea I think they will keep 3. It isn't impossible they keep 4 but that would require going light somewhere and Sternberger and Morris would have to excel to make that a sensible decision I think. It's a good point you make about Morris's tight end usage though. Your backup tight ends have to play teams. They went with two active tight ends on game day for most of last season. Morris as the backup played 67% of all ST snaps. Knox isn't being put out there on teams. Kincaid isn't. So they might need a 3rd active TE on game day and that person better be a special teams player. Sternberger did a little of it when he was in Green Bay (around 30% of the ST snaps in games where he was active) but he has a gap to close there if he is going to oust Morris.

Agree and it really depends on year on year cap allocation. Allen is $18.5m on our cap this year. That is a bargain. He is scheduled to be $47m on our cap next year, that's less of a bargain (though I suspect another restructure will happen). Herbert will be a bargain for the next two years, then the cap hits will escalate and the Chargers will need to manage that year to year the way the Bills do with Allen and Chiefs do with Mahomes. And that is where I think Buffalo, KC and Baltimore (if you want to include Lamar in this) have an advantage over Cincinnati and the Chargers.... because the latter two have owners not known for spending money who I think are more likely to baulk at throwing up front money at their guy year after year after year to convert salary to bonus to free up cap space to improve the roster around them.

The bolded is not a fact. It is an opinion. You need to learn the difference. It is a fact that the top 4 decision makers - McDermott (HC), Beane (GM), Washington (AHC) and Dorsey (OC) - were all in Carolina. That is undisputed. Holcomb might be a 5th on that list but I am not sure how senior he is within this organisation. However, only McDermott and Beane where anywhere close to the decision making in Carolina. So even if I accept your assertion that they underachieved there (I don't) it doesn't mean anything about how likely they are to win here. I also didn't call that claim "completely unsubstantiated". I said I thought the narrative was overblown. You have the genesis of a point, but I think your conclusion is a stretch. And again, I didn't "X" that post. Because I didn't think it was a completely unsubstantiated post. Where I do, be safe in the knowledge I'll continue to call you out.

The zero separation at receiver was an issue last year. Keenan Allen isn't quite as shifty as once he was and seems to be constantly carrying a niggle or two.

Yep. It is just the QB market. And the longer you wait the more you pay. It is why the Bills shouldn't wait on contract #3 for Josh. I suspect he will start agitating for a new deal after the 2026 season at which point his guarantees have dried up. The Bills should move quickly and do a deal at that point. It will put Josh back at the top of the tree for a period, but as we can see, it never lasts long. Remember when everyone was outraged that Dak became the 4th highest paid QB? "they should have traded him rather than pay him that, play Andy Dalton" were the cries. He isn't even in the top 10 now. It's the price of doing business in the NFL. You either have a QB in which case you pay top dollar when you extend them, or you don't. It is why everyone agrees the years your QB is on a rookie deal are such an opportunity if you hit in the draft.

Crikey. When will some of them show up here?

It could, but you are still gonna see Siran Neal on this team and they drafted Shorter in part to play teams. I think the Bills will still value it, at least until we see how this year plays out. I just think Taiwan wasn't quite the same player last year.

100% agree. I will acknowledge the case for the defense which is that DeCosta, Harbaugh, Roman is a considerably better support structure than anything Herbert has had in terms of coaching and front office (remains to be seem what Todd Monken brings, didn't love that hire). Herbert's 2nd half lulls are still a pattern and his overall TD to INT rate in 2nd half football is worse than 2:1 (39:22) whereas Allen and Burrow are 2.5:1, Mahomes is 3:1 and Jackson is 3.5/1. Equally when you just isolate 4th Quarter... Herbert 1.6/1 Jackson 2.2/1 Burrow 2.5/1 Mahomes 2.9/1 Allen 3.7/1 So it doesn't matter whether you look at the 2nd half as a whole or isolate the 4th Quarter the evidence is pretty clear that compared to his well paid (Burrow is about to be) similar aged AFC peers Herbert just does not play his best when the game comes down to its decisive moments.

It was when he was an exceptionally good Special Teamer. I don't think he was exceptional last year. Still good, not exceptional. He is also 34 and slowing down. I am at peace with the fact that almost all Bills fans will underrate Taiwan Jones's contribution. I think they were right not to bring him back again this year but as a Bill for 5 of the last 6 years he has been a very good player indeed. Unfortunately not many football fan really understand special teams play.

He gave up 3 touchdowns last year and 4 in the season where he generated 11 interceptions and 2 pick 6s. Yes he is an aggressive style of corner, but compared to the other go to aggressive corner of recent times, Marcus Peters, Trevon does not get burned as much. He is also in the 50s for completion percentage allowed which is where all the top guys are. The "he gives up too many touchdowns" thing is overblown. The playmaking way outstrips what he gives up.

I didn't "X" your list. I don't agree with everything on it.... but there isn't sufficient on there that a) is clearly wrong or b) I strongly disagree with. You see how this works? When you say stuff that fits into a) or b) I "X" it. When you don't then I don't. I think your "transplanted unit" thing is an overblown narrative though. Ken Dorsey and Eric Washington were on that Carolina staff but neither were key decision makers on that staff. Washington was their next in line but one as DC, but he wasn't a decision maker when McDermott was there. I actually do have a concern about the makeup of the upper echelons of the Bills staff but it isn't that they all came from Carolina who underperformed, because a) so what and b) I don't think they underperformed. My concern is I don't know who the voices that might challenge McDermott are now. Daboll would and contrary to the belief of many here because of his demenour, Leslie Frazier would too. My worry is whether the familiarity at the top now is conducive to sufficient challenge. I rate McDermott as a Head Coach much more highly than you but every Head Coach (and I do mean every Head Coach) needs people who can challenge him, not on the big stuff but on the myriad of smaller decisions an NFL HC has to make every single day.