GunnerBill

He may but I wouldn't say that's a given. He genuinely had very little buzz in the run up to the draft in 2023 and I think it is conceivable that if the Bills hadn't selected him he'd have lasted well into day 3. So this isn't a case where a consensus day 2 type flames out at his first stop and a lot of other teams who liked him in the draft think "worth a shot." This is a guy who the Bills probably took at least a round, maybe two, before other teams would have considered him.

Let's take a step back slightly from "who will play MLB?" and think about the makeup of the linebacker room more generally: What do we know: 1. The Bills under this regime have fluctuated between keeping 5 and 6 linebackers. 2. Last year they started with 6 on the roster and ended with 7 having added AJ Klein in-season. 3. Matt Milano is one of their best players and will be one of the 5/6 and start at WILL (I'm going to say WILL now for ease of reference but they do use him as the SAM in some true nickel looks whereas in their "base" Taron Johnson to all intents and purposes plays SAM). 4. The backup linebackers HAVE to play special teams. 5. Tyler Matakevich is a Special Teams captain (their other one, Taiwan Jones, has moved on) and there are $0 cap savings associated with moving on from him. So I think we can pencil him in. 6. I think it is a pretty safe assumption that, even though they have now reverted to their original post-draft position of "Williams is not competing at MLB", they are not cutting their most recent 3rd round pick and he will be Milano's backup. That means they have the WILL position covered. Which probably gets us to: there are three spots up for grabs and four players competing: Terrel Bernard, Tyrel Dodson, AJ Klein and Braylon Spector. From that group they are looking for their 2 best options at MLB. I suspect AJ Klein will get one of those spots as the vet insurance. The safe floor guy. Even if they tab someone else to start, if they have any doubt at all about their choice they will keep Klein. The only way Klein doesn't make it is if someone flat out just wins the job and is obviously the best player of the group, in which case they might feel secure enough with a developmental guy as the backup. But that feels like a long shot. That leaves it very likely as Bernard v Dodson v Spector. So what do we know about that battle: 1. The defensive depth chart last year was Dodson, Bernard, Spector. 2. Special Teams usage last year was also Dodson, Bernard, Spector. 3. #2 is partly because Spector was the guy who was a healthy scratch most of the year. But ceiling wise he is the best STer. 4. Cutting Dodson offers $0 in cap savings. Bernard and Spector would offer $900k and $800k in savings respectively. 5. Dodson is a one year contract. Bernard and Spector would both be cheap depth for a longer period. My view is you end up coming down to it is Dodson or Bernard, not both and then Spector as a STer who they still think they can develop some at LB (and is the option that gives them some size). Based on camp reports so far it seems like Dodson is the guy getting the most run with the 1st unit. I suspect that is another example of the Bills valuing familiarity and experience in the scheme. But then Bernard is a 2nd year player who they spent a 3rd rounder on. To this point the highest pick guy they have given up on in year two is Vosean Joseph, a 5th rounder, who was essentially beaten out by Dodson as an UDFA from the same class). If Bernard is the odd man out then a) that pick stands alone atop of the Beane Bust Tree and b) he would essentially be beaten out by Spector a 6th rounder from the same class.

He is also a very good ST player. That likely factored in.

I agree with this, but he seems to have a unique ability to stop suddenly for the comeback route. Which for someone who struggles, as you say, with sharp cuts and the subtleties of short area route running his ability to stop and comeback to the ball on those sideline comebacks is pretty interesting.

He was good week 1. He was TERRIBLE week 2 against the Titans and got little better. His lack of length worries me at tackle. He has done it here and there the odd snap and in pre-season. But as a full time tackle with 32 and a half inch arms.... that is dicey.

I think Dodson is the leader in the clubhouse.

The salary and snap count bit refers to them with their new team not their old one. It is judged on their first year with the new team. If he signs for $10-$12m we are looking at a 4th rounder more than likely. He will have to be north of $15m to be in with a chance of netting a 3rd.

It is completely fair to say Beane has a poor track record in terms of OL. By his own admission he did a "terrible job" with the OL Josh's rookie season in '18; he did a better job in '19 bringing in Morse and Spain (and to a lesser extent Feliciano) and it was steady and then 2020 with Daryl Williams at RT the line was good (but in empty stadiums). In 2021 they tried to run it back, extended Williams and Feliciano (and then cut them after 1 more season) spent all year playing musical chairs but did find a combination late that worked. 2022 was even worse, the guard play was shambolic and Brown regressed in year 2. So his track record isn't great, but you have to look at each move on its merits.

Sure, there are some people who love every move the Bills make at the time they make it. But some of us actually judge each move (or indeed each offseason) on its merits. I said before last season multiple times "they didn't do enough at receiver, their depth outside especially stinks and the big OL move is an old, clapped out vet who has never been as good as the hype even in his prime." That doesn't mean anything either way in respect of this year's offseason. I don't think anything is a slam dunk but there are strong grounds to think they have made better moves up front and will have upgraded two of their starting spots. At receiver I think they have raised the floor a bit in the receiver room. They are not 1 injury away from Jake Kumerow anymore, but I do think it is telling that almost a week into camp they are still looking at outside options. That tells me they are seeing Sherfield and Harty as much more inside guys and/or they are not yet sure about Shorter's chance to contribute early. But it is fair to say that in terms of the passing game their best chance of a major upgrade is Kincaid hitting the ground running (ideally alongside actually using Dawson Knox more).

I know. My point was there should have been a way of him being able to be put on some sort of comissioner list until that was known. Given the situation play him when he might be about to be charged with rape or cut him were too stark of a choice. No charges were brought in at which point, in my scenario, the Bills would have then have had to activate him or cut him. In a scenario where charges had been brought he then would have been taken off the list and cut.

I think he plays faster than you would think based on his 40 time but he isn't a speedster. He also runs the post, and the go route really well so in that sense yes he is a field stretcher.

I meant until the criminal investigation had concluded. While I know he could still be found not guilty in court I think if the DA thinks sufficient evidence to charge then at that point him being cut would have been appropriate.

Hmm. Top 100 is voted by players and this year is his first appearance.

Yea I think the point is more it is only the last 12 months that a lot of the league has woken up to how good he is.

From those quotes it appeara Irsay was drunk. Which I always assume with him in any event.

And because stupidly there are no lists that you can put a rookie who hasn't yet played in the league on. So the Bills choices were: a) put a guy being trialled by social media on their 53 and have it talked about every time they punt; or b) cut him. I understand why they chose b) but I can't for the life of me understand why there wasn't a commissioner list type option where the Bills and the NFL could have said "it isn't good for the brand for him to play through this but it is only allegations, nothing is proven let's put him on the list until it resolves itself".

I will say the same now as I said when she accused him: let the legal process play out The fact the DA considered there was no case to answer criminally does not mean he would win a civil action against the accuser. Look at my post history. I didn't bury Araiza then. I won't bury the accuer now.

Mine too. I am almost never a RB round 1 guy. I'd have taken Taylor top 15. That is how I convinced I was that he was great.

We are not in wait and see on Edmunds. We will get a 3rd. The formula ain't that complicated. Of course the Bills could sige free agents to cancel the pick for Davis out. But if they do that is their own stupidity.

McGovern and Torrence winning the guard jobs is 100% my expectation. Because they are better players than Ryan Bates.

A. Gabe isn't as good as those guys. B. He isn't the same type of receiver. He will always be lower volume higher outcome.

I suppose I think formation will increasingly matter more than personnel.

Sure if they can upgrade Davis in a trade.... but the post is about trading him for future picks.

Maybe but as football becomes more and more positionless I think that argument becomes more difficult to sustain. We all know there are players whose official position designation is not where they play on the football field.

That WAS a weakness at draft time. It isn't so much now. His release package is the biggest area of improvement he has made as a pro and it is very noticeable. His weaknesses are that he isn't a big separator and that is attributable somewhat to his stiffness and lack of short area burst and his hands which have not been good enough and must get better. Especially for a "bigger" receiver. I don't think he always plays his size in contested catch situations and he doesn't come down with enough of those balls. His strengths are that he is faster than he looks when he can long stride, he runs the go route, the post and the comeback really well, his get off (as above) is now pretty good and he has excellent body control. He is also a willing blocker in the run game. Not sure what the WR market will look like in free agency next year. On the face of it the group doesn't look that strong. Tee Higgins, Mike Evans and Michael Pittman are the three outside receivers Gabe would be out there in the market against as it stands and I still expect Pittman and the Colts to come to an agreement before the end of camp. On that basis I think Gabe can expect to be in the $13m - $15m range. But if either Higgins or Evans were to extend as well (not sure they will) Gabe's deal could go even higher.