GunnerBill

I started work on it Friday. I reckon by next weekend some time.

In the AFC? At least the Chiefs, Bengals, Texans and Ravens. I think we have been a top 3 roster in the AFC the last 4 seasons. We are now 5th or 6th IMO.

Talent. Edge rush. Receiving. Secondary.

Personally unless he is awesome in 2024 I think it is his last year as a Bill.

Ideall, sure. Isn't a must. We MUST get at least a guy capable of being a good #2 outside. Ideally we get a guy who by the ene of the season you feel can be your #1.

I haven't watched anything if the Yale kid. It is hard to find much film on him so I have accepted he won't be on my board because I'd be guessing. The bits of things I have seen and read I like - he is a relentless to the whistle blocker which is a major positive.

I agree but equally they might say the same the other way in terms of the last two regular season wins we had there. Those games keep coming down to a play or two. But I have made the elite talent point repeatedly. You can look back at Superbowl winners and they tend to have 3 or 4. We never seem to get to the playoffs with 3 or 4 healthy. Even if we feel we have them on paper in September. 1. London's separation rates were better than Coleman's; and 2. He is hardly proof of the point so far. He has been okay. He hasn't been great.

When I say "back out there" I mean outside as opposed to at nickel where he played most of 2023.

While the lack of spend on receiver in the draft has been a frustration if, as we all hope, they address that at #28 in April, even allowing for the fact I expect #60 would go on defense, it gives Josh a starting offense with: A 2nd round running back; A 1st round tight end; A 1st round trade and a first round pick at receiver; Two 2nds and a 3rd rounder on the offensive line. That only really leaves WR3, C, LG where they haven't invested decent draft capital. So while I agree that they have been slightly tilted towards defense and they have definitely undervalued receiver to a concerning degree I still say the single biggest issue with their talent evaluation and acquisition strategy has been their inability to find elite talent. They have found lots and lots of good and not much great. And we see it year after year in the playoffs not just in the Bills games but in the post season generally, it is the elite guys that very often are the ones making the critical plays in the critical moments. If they find an elite player at #28 that will make a huge difference (even if that isn't a receiver... though obviously that is my preferred outcome).

I'm not necessarily disagreeing on the Chiefs move. They got worse at corner, but they have a good player in McDuffie and in Watson have someone who has started and played well in a Superbowl that gives them a pretty good baseline. But I AM disagreeing on Taron Johnson. He is a system player, in the sense that the system can't work without him. Find me another player in the entire league who can play nickel corner / strong side linebacker hybrid as well as Taron Johnson. There are not any. He is not a beneficent of the scheme. The scheme is absolutely a beneficent of him. And they got him for less than a good not great nickel in Cam Sutton (obviously before what happened with Sutton this week happened). And if you want to argue about Bills players on defense who haven't stood up in the playoffs Taron Johnson is not the guy to have that argument about. That was not just a good deal by the Bills, it was a GREAT deal.

Yes they can put McDuffie back out there full time but there was a reason they went the other way last year. I do actually like Jaylen Watson a fair bit who was a 7th rounder the same draft as McDuffie and started in the Eagles Superbowl (he was good that day whereas McDuffie struggled in that game). They have definitely just got weaker at corner though. As for Taron Johnson Beane absolutely did not overpay. Cam Sutton was the market setter for nickel corners at $11m AAV. Taron > Cam I was guessing $12.5m AAV or thereabouts. To bring Taron in cheaper than Cam was a hell of a deal for the Bills.

On the investment thing there is no doubt they could have done more but at the same time I think they have started to move that dial a tad. Brown, Torrence, Kincaid and Shakir all being starters on rookie deals plays in a bit. The one area that they have clearly failed is prioritising WR in the draft. But I said it when he arrived that Beane came from a place where they had not prioritised big assets on receiver and that thinking that he was exposed to under Hurney and Gettleman has manifested itself in Buffalo.

I feel good that the gap to Miami has grown and so we remain the team to beat in the AFCE and will win the division again and make the playoffs so long as Josh is healthy. I don't feel great that the Championship window is very wide for us in 2024. I don't want to rehash arguments about the extent to which one AFCCG appearance from 2020-2023 represents underachievement but I think an AFCCG in 2024 would probably be a bit of overachievement.

But we have signed guys off them as UDFAs over the years. Cam Lewis, obviously, is one that stands out.

He is my WR4 so I'd happily just stand pat and pick him at #28.

Yea he'd be more his type. I haven't seen him round here for a while. He is welcome to Pearsall though.

I actually have seen a couple of credible guys mock him in round 1 in the last week. Which there hasn't been much of since very early in the process. I think he could squeak into the back of day 1 - but most likely he goes the first 15 picks on day 2.

He only fancies white guys.

Yea was going to say defensively they run a pretty unique scheme as a rule which allows them to value guys somewhat differently. The Ravens have the best personnel operation in the league IMO. I'm not saying DaCosta is the best GM necessarily, but the overall operation is super impressive and buttoned up. You know every team has this gimmicky "play like a Bill" type slogans... but Baltimore is one place where it really means something. I know a Ravens player when I see one. I know what that franchise is, what it values and how it tries to build.

I will say this about him...... he isn't quite Jordan Poyer, but he doesn't exactly hurt the overall attractiveness of the safety room. 😍

Ladd has actually explicitly said we didn't.

I liked Rapp out of college too. He has not been good in the pros.

No, not at all. I liked both of those guys and Hyde in particular had excellent tape. I don't accept the "these signings are on a par with Hyde and Poyer." There is a germ of truth with it in respect of Poyer, in that he was not and never had been an established starter before he arrived in Buffalo - but even he got basically the same AAV - $3.5m on his deal in 2017 that Rapp got now after 7 years of salary inflation. Micah Hyde was an established NFL player with a ton of great tape who got over $6m AAV.

One Superbowl starting safety. Edwards did start the Superbowl last year, but wasn't good in it. He didn't start the Superbowl when he was with Tampa, thought he played in some dime packages. Rapp did not start the Superbowl for the Rams, he was coming back from a concussion and played less than half the defensive snaps. My problem with them is they are both replacement level starters. I think Edwards is a bit better than Rapp but I wouldn't mind either so much if they were playing with a better player. But two players of that level together is a concern for me. It's like having Vlad Ducasse and Jordan Mills together on the right hand side of your offensive line.

I'd say safety is a bigger starting need than DE. AJE is higher quality player than anyone we have on the roster at safety - we have three backups (Edwards, Rapp and Lewis) and a bottom of the roster player (Hamlin). I think FS and SS are both "starter needed" positions and DE is an improve position. Now I take the point totally that defensive end is just a higher value position than safety. That is definitely true. So maybe turning a 6/10 starter at defensive end into a 7/10 starter gives you overall a bigger bump that turning a 4/10 starter at safety into a 7/10 starter. But then you have to look at the strength of the draft too and if you say our two biggest needs are WR and DE and you take the view that they must be addressed with the first two picks then you need to pick defensive end at #28. Because there is not a lot of depth to the class. I basically have it as: Tier 1: Turner; Latu; Verse - immediate year 1 impact starters Tier 2: Chop Robinson - boom and bust but impact player ceiling Tier 3: Braswell, Trice, Isaac - potential starters but not impact players early Tier 4: Elliss, Darius Robinson - developmental players (Elliss because he is raw and Robinson because he hasn't really been a proper edge rusher) They are the only guys I'd consider drafting on the first two days and there are only a couple of others - Kneeland and Booker I'd take before the end of round 5. Every other EDGE in this class that I have watched is a 6/7/UDFA to me. Point being it isn't a great class. Only those tier 1 guys and possibly the question mark on Chop would be upgrades on AJE as a rookie IMO. Turner and Verse will be long gone. Latu could slide because of injury history and Chop probably will be there. But if they don't address it at #28 they should pass at #60 IMO. I just don't think the value is there in this class. Get by with Groot, Von, AJE, Toohill and Jonathan in 2024 and hope the opportunity to upgrade is there in 2025. To be clear I am not arguing for a defensive end at #28. I am firmly on the WR train (though if Latu falls I'd be tempted). I'm just making the point that I don't necessarily think it is as easy as WR and DE in any order with the first two picks just because those are the two premium positions where we most need help.