GunnerBill

I think you are slightly overselling what I am saying. I am not saying that the Chiefs were not trying to score or that the Ravens defense didn't play better than ours. Our defense sucked the week before. I am just saying that the Chiefs call the game differently when the guy on the other side is #17. No two games are the same and every game has its own flow. Baltimore has a lot of talent on that defense and they played a really nice second half. They deserve credit for that. But as soon as Mahomes needed a play he found one. As he just always seems to in the post season. And I haven't ever argued that the difference between the two teams is Mahomes over Allen. Mahomes is still to me the best Quarterback in football. Allen is #2. But the difference between those two isn't the reason we haven't got over the hump.

I agree. The defense and the injuries are factors in the loss. But if I'd given you the exact situation coming out of the 2 minute warning before the game and said "will you sign for that?" 95%of this board would have gladly signed for it. The game was right there for us and we just couldn't execute well enough.

I have only just got around to watching it. Been hitting the draft stuff hard the past week so only just sat down and watched the presser. I didn't think he sounded defeatist in the slightest. Certainly not compared to last year's when he definitely did. I thought Beane was quite upbeat and realistic that this team is literally 3 or 4 plays a way and it is going to be small margins that is the difference between whether we can make those extra 3 or 4 plays or not. The two things I liked most about what he said in terms of strategy and potential changes there: 1. We might not be able to keep five vet D Tackles we think can play - Halle-freaking-luja. Beane has thrown way too much cash at bad value vet D tackles. From Jordan Phillips to Vernon Butler to PooPoo Ford. They HAVE to find a guy there eventually who can play on a cheap deal. Ideally a day 3 pick they feel comfortable with in that rotation. 2. We might have to sacrifice some depth to put the most competitive team around Josh. YES. We have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL, we have had for 3-4 years. That is part of why we can absorb so many key injuries the last two seasons and still win our division. The problem is that depth eventually comes at the cost of another potential difference maker or two. Tyrel Dodsons and Dane Jacksons might well make sure you can still be competitive down starters. But are you better with a bigger drop off at those spots and at defensive tackle and at guard or something than with an extra receiver who make a difference or an extra impactful defender? I'd take being slightly thinner in some spots next year if it is the difference between bringing in a good vet safety to partner with Poyer or an extra vet receiver to compliment Diggs and our shiny draft pick.

Compared to Ken Dorsey, it is going to be more motion, more use of choice routes inside to gain leverage and a bit more empty in the pass game. Now Brandon Beane needs to give him the pieces to make it happen.

Yep. You just don't need to spend a first round pick to do it that way when you have needs at premium spots.

Just a reminder that my first mock last year I mocked Rashee Rice to the Bills in round 1 he had a tough Senior Bowl week and people were absolutely killing me for that pick. Looks a tad better now....

I did criticise their first round and I think Campbell has already proven a reach. He has been a liability in coverage. And while Gibbs is talented and has definitely played well for them I still contend a team with their need at a premium position - CB - should have taken a corner. Christian Gonzalez or Joey Porter. That would have made a bigger difference than another running back especially when the guy they have playing on $6m AAV had 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns and the guy they gave away also had a 1,000 yard season. It isn't that Gibbs isn't good. Or that I care whether he was 12 or 18. It is the opportunity cost when you pick a running back as against a premium position. And they end up playing an NFCCG with Cam Sutton as their best corner. No surprise they couldn't hold onto a big lead. I gave them credit for their day 2 picks at the time, hated day 1, liked what they did day 2. LaPorta and Branch were excellent picks.

There is the targeting rule now too though.

Congrats to Bobby. He has earned it. Both as safeties coach and linebackers coach his work has been stellar. Even if he isn't calling plays (which I don't expect year 1) I think he will be an asset.

I actually like LaPorta and Branch more long term than the two first rounders. They will squeeze that rookie contract production out of Gibbs and he will run for a ton of yards. Then they'll pay him and cut him inside two years. Campbell is what we knew he was. An old fashioned thumper at MLB but a liability in coverage. I think LaPorta and Branch will end up there for the duration.

I like the Washington OT as a late round pick for the Bills. Very sound technically.

I'm not surprised. I know some looked at the #2 pick, cap space and new ownership and thought that the Commanders job was an attractive proposition. But I think it is a very hard job. Their roster really sucks. They have one receiver and two defensive tackles, their best DB is a free agent and around that it's a mess. Ben Johnson is the hottest coordinator around. Unless the Lions offense falls off a cliff he will be a popular interview next year too. Take a good job. Do not take a bad job. I get there are only 32 in the world and that creates a sense of urgency. But too many promising coaches over the years have jumped at a bad job, failed, and never got another shot. Not sure where it leaves Washington now

Ha. I work for the Government and I confess the second round of this mock may have been partly drafted on Government time yesterday..... writing is kinda my stock in trade though. I was a journalist and am now a policy maker. Words are the tools of my trade. On the overall trends... it is a while since I have had a heavily offense slanted top 100. I haven't got that far yet this year but my gut instinct is my top 100 grades will be offense heavy in 2024. There could legit by 20-25 receivers in that top 100 (average is around 15) and I think it is a decent OL class too - especially at tackle. When you add then there might be up to six Quarterbacks you'd consider in the top 100 and it is a draft lacking in true defensive difference makers I think it will probably be looked back on as an offensive draft. I can see a scenario where the entire top 10 ends up being offense. Minnesota at #11 is the first team where I think "that pick will be defense." On RBs and LBs.... the league definitely values those positions less but this is just not a great class for either, particularly at the top. Not sure either position will end up with a player in my top 50 grades. Both classes even out a bit after that I think but I'm not deep enough into my work on the guys lower down the draft to know how many guys at those spots could go later and still end up starting in the NFL. Okay I like this fit less now. Arthur Smith is also mainly a zone blocking offensive coordinator. The Steelers just hired him.

I think that is the most likely scenario too. I don't know that is how it went down, but it feels the most likely reason Leslie would essentially resign.

I don't think he will either. And he can't play the DaQuan Jones role. I'm certain of it.

Probably not everything no, but I do think he is right that the margin for error when you are playing Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs is thin. I wouldn't read too much into Baltimore stopping KC on Sunday. I think Reid and Mahomes knew that was a game where if they didn't turn it over 2nd half they wouldn't lose. When Baltimore needed to stop them the Chiefs immediately hit a play down the field. Not taking anything away from the Ravens defense, but Reid and Mahomes play that differently when they know a punt is going to #17.

DT is a need but Newton is strictly a 3T. That means you are taking Ed Oliver off the field to get Newton on it. I'm not sure that is a route to getting better. I like the player, like him quite a lot, but his skillset is so similar to Ed's that I'm not sure even in a nascar type package you'd put them both on the field.

To be far to @Strethor wouldn't that be consistent with no margin for error? Mahomes is slightly better and therefore for us to win we need everything to go our way and Josh to play great and not having half our starting defense plus our 2nd best receiver is enough to tilt that margin back the other way? I go as far as to say if the team that started that Miami game in week 18 all healthy had played and been properly healthy for the Kansas City game the Bills win.

Chris Jones was early day 2. The Chiefs traded out of the first (think with the 9ers who took that guard out of Stanford who was a gigantic bust) and took him with the 2nd or 3rd pick of the second round.

Yea think that's fair. I haven't really started on evaluating the QBs so far and to be honest didn't see much of any of them in the season (other than Penix and Caleb) so I don't have any strong views on the relative merits of them yet.

While that is true, he is about to turn 24, that is still comfortably a two contract guy at QB.... he could play until 33. But you draft a 21 or 22 year old you might get three full contracts. I do think less of an issue at QB than at say receiver, or corner though.

Whose theory was that? That was never what the Bills said. Or what Leslie said. He wasn't fired he stepped down. I know that for a stone cold fact. What Brandon said in the presser, that when they took their week off in Feb and then came back Leslie said "I'm not coming back I want to take a year off" is absolutely true. What prompted that, you can speculate on. My thinking has always been that McDermott had decided to take a greater role in playcalling (either he was going to call the entire game or maybe he was going to do a Rex Ryan and call 3rd down and redzone or something) and Leslie decided that under those circumstances it was better for all concerned if he moved on. Some people here created their own narrative that if he was really not fired presumably he'd be back after his year out but neither the Bills nor Frazier ever committed to that. They didn't totally shut the door, and to do so would have been foolish, but I know, again for a stone cold fact, that Leslie's belief when he stepped away was that would be the end of his stint in Buffalo.

He was never horrible. He was really good for the Bills. Neither the Bills, nor Frazier, ever said he was coming back to Buffalo. Just that he had decided to take a year off but still wanted to coach beyond that. The chances he was ever coming back here after a year off were next to nil.

Hmm. I think that was more a Spencer Rattler problem.

@DCOrange mentioned Dane Brugler's initial 2 rounder I think earlier in this thread or possibly elsewhere. Last night I did a count up for comparison purposes. We are 11 players different out of the 64 we have as potential 1st and 2nd rounders at this stage. I can't answer for what Dane thinks of the guys I have and he doesn't but thought it might be interesting to look at the guys he has that I don't. Will say before I do that I have huge respect for Dane he is one of the best pro draft guys out there, but here goes: Jaden Hicks - S, Washington State (Dane has at #41 to the Packers) - We both have safeties at this spot. Hicks is a guy I need to do more on I haven't really got into him, but from a cursory look last night I am concerned about his play speed. When you look at what Green Bay has generally looked for on defense in recent years speed has been their thing - whether Wyatt at DT, Walker at linebacker or Savage at safety - they have gone for guys who are fast for their position so not convinced this is a fit. Ruke Orhorhoro - DT, Clemson (Dane has at #42 to the Vikings) - I have Minnesota going Quarterback here, I did consider defensive tackle as a possibility though I see the logic. Don't love the player he is very raw to me. Doesn't have the bulk to play the run consistently and I don't think his pass rush package makes him a viable starting 3T at this stage. Provisionally I actually have more of a day 3 developmental grade on him. Dominick Puni - OT/G, Kansas (Dane has at #45 to the Saints) - I have a receiver for the Saints. I see the point on a left tackle for them but that would mean they are already out on Trevor Penning, a first rounder from two years ago who has had injuries and I'm not sure I see that (if they have I'd love Beane to get on the phone and see what it might take...). On Puni though I really like him. I actually do have a provisional late 2nd on him and really wanted to give him to the Chiefs at the end of the round but thought I might be way off the consensus. Intrigued to see Dane has him so high. Javon Bullard - S, Georgia (Dane has #47 to the Giants) - I had a defensive tackle here but I considered safety too. Xavier McKinney is a free agent and probably won't be retained. I considered Bullard for the Bills pick at #61 (was a toss up between him and Bullock) and had I carried on to the third round he'd have come off the board within the first few picks. One of the better guys I just didn't find a home for. Cooper Beebe - G, Kansas State (Dane has #48 to the Jaguars) - I liked Beebe when he was potentially coming out last year but maybe not quite this high. More like a third rounder. I haven't circled back to him to look at his 2023 performance yet so maybe I'd bump him up once I have. I think the Jags have too many potential needs at premium spots to spend a mid-second rounder on a guard (we both gave them Brian Thomas in round 1). Junior Colson - LB, Michigan (Dane has #50 to the Eagles) - Obviously know the name from watching Michigan games on tv but haven't really looked at him at all yet as a draft prospect so don't have a strong view. I thought he was more of a MLB, which would mean shifting Nakobe Dean to WLB. Maybe that's the plan? They definitely need depth at linebacker. Zach Frazier - C, West Virginia (Dane has #51 to the Steelers) - I had Pittsburgh going linebacker and I do think that is a bigger need. But they could upgrade Mason Cole at center. Frazier was a guy I was trying to get into round 2 but he is strictly a gap scheme player and so many places as soon as you look at oline they are running a Shanahan type scheme and you are looking for zone blockers. I do think he goes round 2 though, so I like this pick from Dane (kinda wish I'd thought of it!) Kalen King - CB, Penn State (Dane has #58 to the Packers) - As with his previous Packers pick I had the same position, different player at this spot. Coming into this season I would have said King was a lock to go in the first two rounds of the draft but he reminds me a bit of Kristian Fulton and Kelee Ringo in previous cycles in that his final year in college was his worst. Fulton still squeaked into the end of round 2. Ringo fell to round 4. My gut says King is gonna slide further than this spot. Malachi Corley - WR, Western Kentucky (Dane has #59 to the Texans) - I had the Texans adding a tight end (and I dunno it feels a bit to me like Dane was really trying to get that tight end to fall to Kansas City) and I still think that makes more sense. Corley would be competing for snaps with Tank Dell who was electric for them as a rookie. I also think it is too early for Corley but there could be what I'm going to call "the inverse Jonathan Mingo effect." Last year's WR draft class was so full of slot receivers and YAC guys that a big downfield type like Mingo got artificially inflated because there was a lack of that type of receiver. This year's class is full of vertical receivers near the top and fewer slot / YAC specialists so it wouldn't surprise me if a team looking for that type reached a bit on a Corley or a Roman Wilson or a Jacob Cowing in round 2. Kiran Amegadjie - OT, Yale (Dane has #63 to the 49ers) - I had the 9ers taking a tackle in round 1 and a guard in round 2... Dane has it the other way around. I have heard a lot of people talking this kid up but I have not seen a single snap of him playing football, so he won't be on my board for that reason. I was expecting him to be at the Senior Bowl but injury is going to keep him out. The combination of small school and big injury make me think he might slide further down the draft through. Darius Robinson - DE, Missouri (Dane has #64 to the Ravens) - I went running back here for the Ravens having gone pass rusher in round one. Robinson is more a round 3 type to me. I think his appeal to 4-3 teams will be limited but I do see the fit for Baltimore because he could play OLB in base and then reduce down and play with his hand in the dirt in obvious passing situations. May well be that Nix ends up the 4th guy in round one and Penix is a day two guy. I haven't really dug into the Quarterbacks at all yet.