GunnerBill

Yea that is kinda what I meant about feeling comfortable. It definitely got to the point last year where Josh had totally lost faith in his line and was imagining pressure where it didn't exist which is completely normal for QBs with bad lines.

It is concepts but it is also Josh just feeling comfortable and executing better. I feel like sometimes he has got happy feet there and he has to be better at the back foot hits ball out stuff.

They don't necessarily have to like all 12 better. Likely cos he is a vet with a bit ofna reputation who has been in the league if they are looking at Isabella and saying man we can't see a way through for him it could be a courtesy thing. Overall balance plays in too. Isabella is strictly slot only. They have Duvernay who is slot only. They drafted Flowes who is slot only. And Rashad Bateman has been at his best in the slot too. Might have been numbers in that position.

True top end tight end prospects are pretty rare though too. And ones walking into an offense QBd by an elite Quarterback are even rarer. Find the last 1st or 2nd round tight end who did that? Might be Gronk! As for how many tight ends had 750 and 5... how many of them were only really Tight Ends in name. That is only a tick above what Ertz had year 2. With worse Quarterback play and a game fewer. I don't think it is unrealistic at all. I have been evaluating prospects since 2014. The only tight ends I have had graded higher than Kincaid in that time have been Kyle Pitts, David Njoku, TJ Hockenson. I think Kincaid is pretty darn good. I think he is coming into an offense that will use him like a wide reveiver. I think he has an elite QB throwing him the ball. When you stack all those things up together I think the Trey McBrides and the Cole Kmets and even the OJ Howards (who I was not that high on when he was getting loads of buzz the year he came out) kinda are irrelevant because they were inferior talents, used very differently and playing with way lesser talent at Quarterback. Engram - who you could make the comparison with in the sense that he is also a Tight End in name only he is a big receiver so at least usage is similar - had his strong rookie year with the corpse of Eli Manning's career. Engram might actually be the "low end" projection for Kincaid if Ertz is at the higher end. I think based on college Kincaid's hands are way better and drops have been an issue for Engram in the league but in his year with Eli and his year with Trevor he has been a 750 yards 5 TDs type guy.

The Pitts numbers are a bit misleading though cos he had over 1,000 yards as a rookie. Then injury and bad QBing held him back in 2022. Not that I am comparing Dalton Kincaid to Pitts (except in that I don't really think of either of them as "Tight Ends" they are basically both big receivers) but Pitts was the most freakishly talented Tight End designated player probably ever to come out. Kincaid isn't in that class. But equally he is way more talented than both McBride and Kmet in the same breath. I had like half a round difference in his grade compared to those two (and Friermuth for that matter). I had him a tick below where I had Hock (actually level with where I have Noah Fant that year), largely because Hock is a dual function player. He isn't a great blocker but he can block just enough and he can play inline. Honestly if I was comparing them just receiver vs receiver I'd hedge slightly towards Kincaid but not much in it. Of course none of that is determinative on his NFL career. Draft evaluations never are, you still gotta go out and do it. I am not a lover of pro comparisons for draft prospects but if you forced me into one for Kincaid it would have been Zach Ertz. He is a good enough receiver to be a receiver and have 1,000 yard seasons (Ertz had his year 6, I'd hope with Allen at QB Kincaid can get there sooner but it won't happen right away). He doesn't block well enough to ever be a single tight end in an offense that is going to run a lot of 11 personnel. Realistic career arc projection... 2023 - (Rookie) circa 55% of the O snaps; 45 receptions; 500 yards and 4 TDs 2024 - circa 65% of the O snaps; 65 receptions; 750 yards and 5 TDs 2025 - 75-80% of the O snaps; 80 receptions; 900 yards 6 TDs And then hopefully he will hover in that 850-1,100 yards range for the following 4 or 5 seasons health permitting. Ertz had 5 years in that sort of territory (lower end of it but with much worse QB play) before the injuries and decline got him.

Yea I am not as sold yet on him as I am on the team and the GM. He needs to beat somebody good. The best teams he has beaten in two years are last season's paper tiger Vikings; last season's Cowboys (and he is 1-3 overall against them); and the 49ers in the NFCCG with their 4th or 5th choice QB... I lost count. Now that isn't all his fault. The NFC isn't great and the schedule just set up for them but this season the test is tougher. They play the 3 teams I think are closest to them - Chiefs, Bills, 49ers in a 3 week run mid season with the Cowboys twice (and a bye) either side. Come out of that at least 3-2 and I will start to be a believer.

Every team in the league would. It is the best roster in football. And I absolutely HATE the Eagles. I cheered for the Patriots in two Superbowls I hate them that much. So for me to say that they are seriously good.

Yea the Eagles have the best General Manager in football. And I was saying that in 2019 when all the Eagles fans were demanding he get fired for whiffing on a couple of receivers and when he was being blamed for Wentz (when the reality is Wentz just sucked).

Yea there was a torn pectoral and a long standing shoulder concern. Some teams, as I understand it, worried the two were linked - that the pec tear was a result of the of the strain he was putting on it trying to protect the shoulder. He was a medical red flag and off some boards. I had him as a 1st round talent. Will be very interesting to see how he does this year when he is the presumed starter. Barely got on the field as a rookie.

But there is no doubt that in 2021 and 2022 the Chiefs have majorly outdrafted us. Two years ago they were the team with some stars ageing and questions about cap room. The reload has, by any measure, been super impressive. Doesn't mean the Bills drafting has been awful in that period... thought 2022 doesn't look great. Just means they have been excellent.

Eh? How am I thinking the worst?

Not shocked. Looked a bit to me like he was going through the motions on Sat. Was right on the roster bubble. If your heart isn't in it then no need to out yourself through any more.

Definitely possible there board was wiped out by the time they took Shorter. I think more likely he was on their board (they did have him in for a visit so I think they did genuinely like him) but he was graded later than the 5th. They traded down once, I suspect nobody was offering anything to go down again so it was like "hey we got a 6th/7th on this big guy, he can play teams, we have a spot available on the roster for a 6th receiver, let's take a shot". By the time they took the last two guys - Broekers and Austin I think the board was definitely wiped out and they were taking their favourite PFA targets.

I think functionally we will be more 11 with a big slot. I don't think Kincaid is gonna be a true "flex" tight end in the way that Hernandez was for the Pats - lining up in the slot, the backfield, as an H-back... I think he is going to run mainly from the slot, the odd snap in line and the odd snap split wide - or even as we saw Sat him line up wide and then shift into the slot or vice versa.

None of my devices work like that. On every one when you click on the game it starts (automatically) playing the 5 minute highlights video. You have to go to the top right corner of the video where it saying "Highlights" in white and click on that and it then gives you a drop down menu of the three options "Highlights, Game in 40, Full Replay" (note no coaches film yet but I think even on the old app that only started arriving in the regular season, who knows whether it will on DAZN). I would never have realised that was even a clickable link had @No_Matter_What not said it yesterday. I don't get an "options" menu. Not on any of my devices. I do find the variance of experience super strange. But hey, the main things I need are there. So I guess I'll just suck it up.

Bizarre. I have found the route to finding the game in 40 and full game but the app works exactly the same for me on whether Samsung, Apple or LG.

I'd take Diggs and Davis over K Allen and Williams. Keenan isn't what he was and even at his best was never as good as Diggs and I think Gabe and Mike Williams are much more similar than Bills fans think. They are big guys who are decent at running vertical routes but don't get great separation and don't have particularly great catch %s. Williams had his best year in the NFL last year in terms of catch % and drops, but that isn't typical of who he has been. I get it, he has put up two 1,000 yard seasons, and he is a slightly better version of Gabe but he averages about 950 yards and 5 TDs as a #2. Gabe's first year as a #2 he was at 836 and 7 TDs. They aren't a million miles apart. I think we have two extra 6ths, we moved down twice in the draft for next year picks. On the basis we have the comp pick for Tremaine I expect the Bills to be sitting with 10 picks in the 2024 draft as of right now.

In which case yea, I take the point. More running isn't the answer for the Bills anywhere. They just have to run better.

I have tried to find an example of a size and speed receiver who was highly recruited out of HS, didn't produce in college and then went on to out produce that in the pros. It's like a needle in a haystack. I am not writing him off but that makes me sceptical he is going to make a significant contribution.

RIP. Yea, he basically won me a fantasy championship in 2017 as a waiver wire pick up.

Thanks, well done digging up the Pats numbers I couldn't find! Really helpful. Agree on the Panthers comparison too. And on the bolded that is exactly the point. Rare that a team has two tight ends who are better receiving options than their 3rd best WR.

Breece Hall is still on PUP. I'd be surprised if he is ready to go week 1. Cook will start against the Bills. I liked the Jets RB depth anyway, I think Michael Carter can play. But Cook gives them a tough, downhill, one cut runner. Which means Hackett will try and use him like a water bug and will use Carter to try and smash up through the tackles if he is usage of CJ and Fred is any guide....

I've been through the entire first two defensive drives and the only linebackers on the field were Milano and Dodson. Third drive Milano comes out Williams comes in. Even the play I thought I had seen all 3 out there together it wasn't I'd seen Boogie rush from a standing position on the far side and thought it was Williams. As far as I can tell Milano and Williams were never on the field together on Saturday. Milano played 2 drives, then Williams subbed in.

I think this team IS going to do that long term. The reason the Dolphins did it so much in 2021 was the exact reason the Bills will end up there by, at latest, the middle of next year. And the Eagles the same in 2019. They had Mike Gesicki and Zach Ertz respectively who were among their top 3 pass catchers but who are tight ends in name only. The Bills are going to in that bracket with Kincaid and he has the talent to be way better than Gesicki and I personally believe a little better than Ertz too. The Ravens in 2019 used either 12 or 21 (and in Roman's system there is a considerable cross over between the two) 60%+ as well. It happens rarely because situations where a team has a Dawson Knox and a Dalton Kincaid are rare. There are not many teams in football that could honestly say "two of our top four receivers are tight ends." I would be shocked if, health permitting, the Bills are not at 60%+ 12 personnel by the middle of 2024 at the latest. They could even get there this year if Saturday was an indicator of anything (that remains to be seen). EDIT: I tried to find the Pats personnel groupings in 2011 when they had Gronk and Hernandez but it appears to be before the majority of the analytics sites were tracking it. However, just looking at usage and targets and some of the media coverage that talks about the Pats being "predominantly" a 2TE offense I suspect it was way up there. Again to me the reality is it is just rare that a team genuinely has two tight ends who are better receivers than their third wide receiver. But if Kincaid is anything like what we think he can be the Bills will definitely be one of those teams.

Did they have 3 plays of Milano and Williams together with no Dodson? Haven't managed to watch back yet due to the joys of DAZN will try to this eve. If you have those plays you can point me to wouls really appreciate it. I know they had one where Milano and Williams were on the field either side of Dodson but if they played them together in a 4-2-5 be interesting to see. But yea interchangeable is the wrong word. They are not interchangeable. Is there a way to modify the defense to allow Milano and Williams to be your two linebackers in nickel? Yea. But someone is still playing the MLB responsibilities in that setup.