GunnerBill

But the dead money next year is already factored in. Because they are on the hook for that anyway and if the plan was, as everyone has pretty much concluded it was, to cut him after 3 years of the deal then the ONLY ramification to next year is you cut him now and all $15m of that is on 2025's cap whereas if you cut him after next season you have the ability to spread that over two years. But you are still on the hook for all that money. It has already been paid. Von has it in his bank. The Bills have to account for every dollar of it and have been planning on that basis. And the $17m in dead cap this year if you cut him is $17m you are accounting for whether he is here or not. So the question remains have him at nearly $24m and him be here or have him at $17m and not be here and have $6.7m to spend on an alternative who can be more productive. If you think Von can bounce back and produce sure it is a no brainer to keep him but if as I do you think he is toast it is equally a no brainer to cut him.

You only need that person to be more productive than Von. And if as I suspect Von will be little better next year than this that isn't a very high bar at all.

Yea agree. I can't see them sending them back to Detroit again for the 2nd time in three years but it wouldn't shock me at all if the Bills are a Thanksgiving game again in the next year or two, potentially as the home team in the rotating late slot.

I think the remaining unguaranteed element of his 2024 salary guarantees if he is on the roster on the third day of the league year. So they have to make the decision before OTAs and minicamps. EDIT: I expect the Bills to keep him. It just isn't the move I'd make and my suspicion is they will end up regretting it.

Nah I am really not. Tre White is still the best corner on the Bills. I don't think it is close. Even if he can only get back to 80% I'd take him over the other guys. But the way he played in Washington and in the Miami game he got hurt... I mean against Miami he was all pro level Tre again. One of his best 5 games in a Bills jersey. On Von I know what the plan was. But the plan didnt include a 2nd ACL. I have hitched my wagon to the idea that what I saw on the field last season wasn't even replacement level. I don't think that's as simple as give him more time and it will come right. I know how long it took Tre but Tre wasn't a liability out there even in 2022. He wasn't playing up to his contract, sure. But he wasn't a bum. That is what Von was last year. I don't take any pleasure saying it. I have loved Von Miller as a player. I was not a critic of the signing. I totally understood it. It was the right shot to take. Sadly it hasn't worked out because of the injury. I'd just rather move on now than try and force it to work this year and potentially have a guy hobbling around out there again.

If Von plays like last year they could literally get that solution with the practice squad DT who played some end at Tottenham that you mentioned earlier. As I said before even an Ngakoue level dust settle FA (and I have never been a fan of his) is likely gonna give you more. I think it is hope beyond hope that Von is capabale of being back to even something like effective. There might not be great solutions at end anywhere else. But that doesn't mean Von is one either. I'd honestly rather take a swing on some other mid level vet FA with the $6.7m than watch Von painfully trying to move around out there.

I don't dispute the final point - to be clear. But Von is toast. I'll happily eat crow if he isn't but I put the chances he is back at less than 5%. I also don't have any issue moving on from both. But I'd probably try and find a pay cut I can live with for Tre first.

He literally didn't belong on an NFL field this year and he is about to turn 35. The odds are slim to none.

On Von - literally anyone. He was hopeless this year and I have zero faith in his ability to return to form. He couldn't move let alone rush. On Tre.... I think Douglas played pretty well. But I still think an 80% Tre White is an upgrade on him. He remains comfortably our best corner IMO. And his game against Miami in which he got injured he was outstanding. I feel reasonably confident he can get back. I wouldn't take that chance at the current deal. But if he is willl to take a pay cut I would and there is reason to believe he would.

I know he interviewed here really badly as part of the Rex process. It lasted less than half an hour and the Pegulas hated him. I think he came across as arrogant.

There really are no nasty ramifications though. The money they are on the hook for next year they are on the hook for if they cut him today, on 1 June or after next season. The question is just do you pay him $23m to be here or do you pay him $16m not to be here and pocket the difference for a player who contributes more. And I don't consider Tre an underperforming player. The last game he played for the Bills was literally one of the best 5 performances in his career here. Okay, it took him 8 or 9 games to round back into top form after his last injury and now he has another injury to try and bounce back from but I still think there is a lot of good football left in Tre and at even 80% of his best he is the best corner on the Bills.

I don't think he made it more basic. It was very basic, sometimes painfully so, under Dorsey. Brady ran more, and people often associate that with basic, but there was a wider range of runs called by Brady than by Dorsey, and they used motion, formation and leverage much more creatively under Brady than under Dorsey. Dorsey's offense was struggling at the end of his reign because his players couldn't execute and he just kept calling the offense the same and expecting them to execute better. Brady accepted his guys were going to need some help and found some ways to put defenders in a bind to manufacture some space and opportunities.

While I agree with all of this I don't think it means the Falcons were wrong on Julio Jones. First - they would have won a Superbowl if Kyle Shanahan had literally just called a run instead of a pass. They didn't even need to gain yards on the run. Second - Julio Jones was the best receiver in the NFL in his prime and top 3 or 4 for almost his entire run with the Falcons. They ignored what I agree is a sound rule not to trade up with big assets for a non-QB - but they WERE right. It did clearly work out for them and Julio Jones will end up in the Hall of Fame. I agree that when you do it and you get it wrong then winning a Superbowl gets you a free pass in a sense, but when you do it you don't only get it right if you win a Superbowl. It is a sound principle to draft by, but the Falcons and Julio are an example where ignoring that sound principle was still the right decision.

Yea. 20 years ago. The average age of NFL players has decreased almost 2 years since then. It's a young man's game. I don't think even the great Bruce Smith has double digit sacks at those ages anymore.... and Bruce wasn't coming off a second ACL injury in those years and hadn't looked as stiff as a board the year before. What would constitute a rebound in your mind? Because if it just means better than 0 sacks, 0 tackles for loss, 5 total pressures and a 25% missed tackle rate in 258 defensive snaps then sure, I can imagine he does better than that. It wouldn't be difficult. But to me for it to be a rebound that makes him definitely better value than the $6.7m you might be able to spend on another vet guy it has to be AJE 2023 type production (i.e. at least good enough to be considered your first guy in off the bench in rush situations) - 6.5 sacks, 14 pressures, 7 tackles for loss (not asking him to match the 2 interceptions). I just don't see how he has that sort of impact. He could barely move out there.

Why would we you think we are assured to see an improvement from a guy at an age where almost everyone at that position has hit the decline? The history of pass rushers beyond 35 is not good, and in the last 15 years it is even worse than "not good". It is almost non-existant. And that isn't factoring in coming off the ACL and the obvious limitations on his movement last year. Again, I'll be here to eat crow if I'm wrong. But Von Miller is finished.

Yea I disagree strongly. Babich 100% was getting hired. Brady wasn't a slam dunk looking at the teams that have hired OCs and trying to join dots on connections but I still think more likely he would than not.

Hmmm. That contradicts what I have heard elsewhere. My understanding is when Bill flew in for that weekend interview the Falcons were prepared to offer him the job if things progressed well. They didn't. In fact they fell apart quickly. Disagreements went wider than just personnel control. They also went to more general organisational structure and coaching staff. Bill Belichick doesn't just want to coach a team. He wants to run an organisation. And he wasn't going to work for an owner unwilling to give that control.

Also some really interesting reflections on Johnson in the Athletic as part of the Commanders search: 1. He doesn't interview well (there were whispers of this last year as well aloof and doesn't make an effort to connect with owners); 2. Has the reputation of being a coach who prefers his office to engaging with people, better at the Xs and Os than the personal relationships with players; 3. As widely reported his agents demands are top of the market. Sounds like Washington was willing to overlook all that but there were whispers even within their search and Mike MacDonald was a live candidate there too. It's possibly the case that this stuff is just bound to come out after a messy end to the process from Johnson and his people, that stuff always gets frowned on by NFL folks and there will be a bit of a sense of league insiders wanting to make sure he feels it. But that is two years in a row the interview whispers have been out there and it does mean his approach is even higher risk than I imagined. If the Lions offense were to be even say middle of the pack next year does he still have the cache to overcome any perceived struggles in connecting with people?

Yep, correct. But that was before we signed Floyd last year. There will be vet guys out there in June in that dust settles stage. I'm just at the point where I don't think there is anything at all left with Von. Let's say the Bills had signed Ngakoue (never been my favourite player) as their dust settled guy instead of Floyd. He was pretty poor for the Bears. Yet I'd still take his contribution over Von. They don't have to hit a Floyd like home run to get more than they will get out of Von next year IMO. They jusy have to have a warm body who still has a bit of pep in the step. I will hold my hands up if I am wrong but Von Miller being finished is one of my stronger feelings on any of the decisions the Bills face this season. I put the chances of getting something meaningful from him in 2024 at less than 5%.

But he is not 33. He is about to turn 35. He showed nothing at all last year to me. Even if he has never had the ACL this year was always likely to be one where he was no longer a true starter level and you were having to just rotate him in. How many pass rushers start in the NFL age 35? How many are productive at that point. And his post ACL play wasn't like Tre's the year before where he just looked tentative. Miller looked like he could barely move out there at times. I think the Bills probably will keep him. Beane seems almost in awe of him. But they really shouldn't. I am willing to go on record now that Von will have next to no impact in 2024. What I saw was a player for whom it is over.

I just think there is way more chance, and I mean like to the times of ten, that you get the old Tre White than you get the old Von Miller. I really don't think it's close. Try and renegotiate with Tre. Cut Von.

I think he HAS to be a move receiver. He isn't Shakir who really can't play outside. But he isn't Diggs who is going to be a primary outside guy who just does the slot a bit. McConkey is a guy you have to do a heavy dose of slot with and really mix up slot and outside. He can make plays in the NFL. He isn't the uy who transforms this offense though.

I wouldn't say it is "almost certain" but the reason it is a real runner is because it makes too much sense for both sides. Tre has no guarantees left on his deal. The dead money the Bills are on the hook for if they cut him is bonus money that in real terms was paid long ago. Basically he costs $33m over the next two years in cap charge. $10m of that the Bills are already on the hook for 'cos it is already paid. So essentially the next two years is $23m in new money but Tre wouldn't see a penny of it if he was cut. Of course he could say "well cut me, I back myself to get $11.5m AAV for two years on the open market after playing to games in two and a half years and when I probably can't go until training camp." But that would be foolish on his part IMO. Much more likely the Bills say let's cut that $23m to $14m. We will guarantee you half of it. And structure it something like: Year Guaranteed Salary Unguaranteed Salary New bonus (guaranteed) Already paid bonus Cap Charge 2024 $2m $1m $1.25m $6m $10.25m 2025 - $6.5m $1.25m $4m $11.75m 2026 VOID VOID $1.25m - - 2027 VOID VOID $1.25m - - That basically gives you the same saving in 2024 as an outright cut would, Tre pockets $7m right away and gets to stay and rehab in an organisation that knows him, knows his body, knows his personality and ultimately coaches that know his game. And it still means you can get put after 2024 for a dead hit of just over $6m. Maybe Tre refuses to negotiate and says keep me on my deal or but me but I gotta think this kind of option is attractive to him as well as the Bills. Instead of $10.4m yearly cash that he won't get it is $7m yearly cash that he will plus access to the Bills trainers, medical facility, rehab support and a chance to play and show his worth on a defense he knows.

McConkey at #28 would depress me. Seriously. And I think he will end up a good player. But that is not a first round football player. I still disagree on Legette. I agree his release package needs work, that's a fair criticism. And he is not a good blocker (which would definitely be a factor for the Bills I think). But I like him out of breaks and I think he wins vertically plenty. Too many plays on his tape where he ends up having to wait and come back to the ball that Spencer leaves short IMO.

But the reason Edwards didn't get a better deal last year still stands. I agree he is a decent starting level guard.... but there is a reason he was there for the Bills when he was in free agency last year. What makes you think after zero starts and a limited role he is more likely to have interest this time around? Similar with Rapp. There was a reason he was available. And maybe someone likes what they saw from him in a dime role and wants to pay him as a starter. Not sure I see it personally. I don't want him starting here. Maybe another team feels different.