GunnerBill

I think he is just a tick below Donald and Jones. I think he was better than Q this past year, don't see any reason why he can't be better again. I think he is on that level. Donald and Jones remain a cut above, sure.

He is a top player.

Look at the underlying metrics in terms of pass rush win rate and pressures. If anything it was an anomoly that the sacks didn't come sooner. Ed's a top player. Zero doubt about it.

Oliver is not a bad contract. That is insane.

I mean the Ravens ran a three tight end offense in Lamar's first MVP season.....

Not quite. But we did have lots of "ignore your eyes and look at these stats that prove that Tyrod is a top 10 Quarterback."

Yea if the draft fell like that I'd be pretty satisfied I think.

Yea I think the senior bowl is the first place team scouts and media chat to each other casually about prospects and suddenly you see guys move.

It's a good point. Not 100% sure on the rules.

Pro Football Network using their updated Big Board (no trades): 28 - Brian Thomas, Wide Receiver, LSU Thomas seems to be getting down as far as the Bills since they updated their big board as Keon Coleman looks to have jumped him. Not sure how realistic it is. I still have Franklin and Legette graded slightly higher than him but the consensus has Thomas ahead of both and he certainly fits my criteria of a dynamic outside receiver for Josh. 60 - T'Vondre Sweat, Defensive Tackle, Texas Sweat is a starting 1 tech pretty early in my view and when I watched him I was surprised at how much push he gets in his pass rush for a big guy. I'm not totally sold he is their type and this may be a bit of a low hanging fruit pick but I don't tend to love where the board leaves you as the Bills at the back end of round two. 99 - Jonah Elliss, Edge, Utah Elliss is a little undersized but he has NFL pedigree and he was productive in college. He has a good get off and I think he just finds a way to affect the passer. He is probably a situational pass rusher as a rookie and the Bills would probably want him to add some bulk which I think his frame will take, but is probably needed if he is going to have any impact against the run on early downs. 128 - Tykee Smith, Safety, Georgia Smith lacks a little speed but he can play deep, can hit in the box and he can come up and cover slot guys too. I think he is potentially a long term replacement for Micah Hyde even if he might take some time to crack the lineup as a rookie. 158 - Javon Baker, Wide Receiver, UCF I like Baker as a mid round fit for the Bills if their early pick is someone like Thomas. Baker's deficit is he isn't the quickest but he is a very good route runner for a guy coming out of college and you can see him playing that flanker role ultimately opposite a downfield receiver like Thomas is. I suppose he has a touch of Stefon Diggs about him and if he lives up to his potential could be a successor to #14. 161 - Beaux Limmer, Center, Arkansas Developmental center with good movement skills and a nuanced understanding of how to maintain blocks throughout the rep. He isn't the thickest below the waist and you might want him to bulk up there to improve his anchor. Not a starter as a rookie but could start down the road. 197 - Jo Milton, Quarterback, Tennessee I want the Bills to take a shot on a late round Quarterback but I want a toolsy ceiling guy not a physically limited college smart game manager. Milton was wildly inconsistent in the Senior Bowl, both during the week and the game but the army strength, mobility and quick release were all on display. If he shows some promise I'd even be willing to commit a 3rd roster spot to Quarterback in 2024 if I thought that in 2025 and beyond he could be a cheap as chips backup. 201 - Decorian Patterson, Corner, UCF This kid screams Bills. Has experience inside and outside, smart, good instincts, good recovery speed that means he is rarely beaten deep. You know Brandon Beane is always going to throw a late day 3 pick as a DB somewhere. He'd be a nice pickup and could secure a roster spot initially as the primary backup at nickel. 205 - Cedric Johnson, Edge, Ole Miss They need depth at Dline so why not take another shot here. Johnson is more of a bigger end who is going to be stout v the run and more of a straight ahead rusher but he might be an interesting developmental piece. 245 - Darius Muasau, Linebacker, UCLA I know linebacker depth isn't a major need but loved this kid at the Shrine bowl and I reckon he'd play some special teams for you as well as providing depth at middle linebacker.

Tre is slated to count $16m against the cap in 2024. But he has no new guaranteed money so if the Bills cut him he doesn't get another penny (though we still have to account for the $10m in dead bonus money already paid). If the Bills were to offer him some new guaranteed money (I've suggested about $8m) in exchange for a big paycut on the unguaranteed salary he is due I would think it would be attractive to him. If it isn't fine, he can go. He'd be "playing" for about $8m in new money but only half of that would be accounted for in 2024, with the rest spread across 2025 and possibly a void year or two. He'd then count about $10m against the 2024 cap - the $6m that already counts against the cap from previously paid bonus money, plus $4m of the new money. Which is the same as he counts against the cap if we cut him because as well as the $6m already paid this year a cut (without a post 1 June designation) escalates the other $4m of already paid bonus to the 2024 cap.

Yea my level of patience isn't endless but the how is as important as the what. If they lose to Tua and the Dolphins in the playoffs for example I am much more likely to say "okay you have to make a change" than if they lose by a field goal to Mahomes and Reid. I think there does come a point when even if you don't think Sean McDermott is problem (and I don't with the exception of 13 seconds) you have to try something different just for the sake of a new voice. I'm probably two seasons away from that to be honest, and that just so happens to line up with the point where you kind of have to re-do Josh's deal ahead of his age 30 season. That is the point where even if I don't think this regime has done enough to justify a change I might want to make one. That isn't to say there are no circumstances where I'd move on after this year. There are. Missing the playoffs is a fireable offense (unless Josh gets hurt) and I said that when we were 6-6 too.

That's mainly in run support though and I'd see him much more as the centre fielder.

Yep. I had a 1st on Jones that year when a lot of people, particularly early on, had him as a day two guy. But I confess I did not have a 1st on TJ Watt and it was exactly for the reason you said. He was a big, stiff, kid who needed to add some functional strength to his frame and didn't have the explosion or the bend around the edge you look for. To be honest if it wasn't for his hands I might even have had a third on him. I thought some of the hype was the name.

Yea to be clear I am against moving Benford. If I was gonna try any of them at safety it would be Tre actually. Coming out there were people who thought because he wasn't a great long speed guy if he might end up at safety in the NFL. I'm not saying it would be my go to option or anything but if I had brought Tre back and wasn't able to secure an affordable vet at FS I'd be open to trying him there.

Yea Mooney is interesting to me. Spotrac reckons $10m AAV. I think he might get more than that but if that is indeed the price I'd 100% do it.

QBs will routinely play later than they did a generation ago but I don't think we are going to see lots and lots of guys going into their mid 40s. Manning played until 39, was pretty good still at 38 and had arguably his best year age 37. Ben Roethlisberger was still decent at 38 and had one of his best years at 36. Drew Brees had a great year at 39. Rodgers won MVP at 37.... So I think really good into the very twilight of their 30s is the new norm. Really good into their 40s is just Brady.

If you answer them that way you cut him as soon as the league year begins.

Well not right necessarily but consistent with normal practice that it is the QB of the #1 seed.

In fairness 2015 was Tyrod's best year. Once teams had film he was less effective. But yea, nobody was calling him an MVP..... except @transplantbillsfan actually. He loved himself some Tyrodball. There is no doubt statistically Lamar is the weakest MVP in a long time.

Totally agree.

I'm not sure he will. He has been pretty bad the last two years. He stinks.

I didn't say that. I said to I think Tre can get back to his best - yes. If he does is he our best CB - yes, easily. That is a separate point from he doesn't need to get back to his absolute best to start over Douglas on this team for me. At 85% of his best I'd take Tre. I know you disagree with that point, that's fine. But I wasn't asking you to read that into my answers to the two key questions. That is a separate question which is how close to his best does Tre need to get to be a starter on this team?

Okay overall here is my Salary Cap plan for 2024. Starting with an assumption of $242m cap and the Bills being currently circa $51m over the cap. Restructures: Basic restructures (turning salary into amortised bonus): Josh Allen - saving $18m Dawson Knox - saving $2.8m Connor McGovern - saving $2.4m Matt Milano - saving $2.1m Ed Oliver - saving $1.2m Ryan Bates - saving $1.1m Restructure with VOID years: Jordan Poyer - saving $2m Total Saving: $29.6m Estimated cap space: -$27m Pay Cuts: Tre White - saving $6m Nyheim Hines - saving $2.5m Total Saving: $8.5m Estimated cap space: -$18.5m Extensions: Dion Dawkins - saving $6.5m (on the basis of a 2 year extension worth $37m - $18.5m AAV - added to the $10.3m base salary + roster bonuses he was due for this year so a total of $47.3m to spread over 3 years allowing you to lower the cap hit in year 1 - comparator contract Jake Matthews) Rasul Douglas - saving $5m (on the basis of a 2 year extension worth $22m - $11m AAV - added to the $9m base salary + roster bonuses he was due for this year so a total of $31m to spread over 3 years allowing you to lower the cap hit in year 1 - comparator contract Darious Williams) Taron Johnson - saving $6m (on the basis of a 4 year extension worth $50m - $12.5m AAV - added to the $7.6m base salary + roster bonuses he was due for this year so a total of $57.6m to spread over 5 years allowing you to lower the cap hit in year 1 - comparator contract Cam Sutton) Total Saving: $17.5m Estimated cap space: -$1.5m Cuts: Mitch Morse - saving of $8.5m Von Miller - saving of $6.7m (not realised until June 1st) Deonte Harty - saving of $4.2m Siran Neal - saving of $3m Total Saving: $22.4m Estimated cap space: $20.9m (made up of $14.2m + an additional $6.7m from June 1) And you would have 49 players under contract of whom about 38 are realistic players for the 53. They have 10 draft picks and need circa $10.6m to sign their draftees. Conclusion: it's tight. And When you consider they probably need a vet or two at DL and Safety..... it gets very tight. The other "easy" button to press is the restructure on Stef's contract. That saves you another $13m.... but it means the cost of moving on from him after 2024 (which is very much the play I think) costs you $35m in dead cap rather than the $22m in dead cap it is currently slated to cost. The other big saving option is just cut Rasul straight up. That is a $9m saving, no dead money, but having spent a 3rd round pick on him and with the Tre health question that would be brave and I don't expect them to go there. In terms of the decisions I've made above that would be most controversial given opinions here: Cutting Von - impact of keeping him is you have 50 players under contract but only $14.2m total in cap space. Keeping and restructuring Jordan Poyer - impact of cutting him outright is you save an additional $3.4m but the only safety on your roster is Damar Hamlin. Keeping and cutting the pay of Tre - impact of cutting him is neutral on 2024 cap compared to the pay cut. Both save $6m. You could do him as a post June 1 cut and then it opens up $10m in 2024 space but you lose $6m on your pre-June cap space (so you wouldn't even have enough to sign all your draftees before 1 June). Now there will be some other things they can do with VOID years like I am suggesting with Jordan to just eek another million or so out here and there on some of the extensions and get that saving up closer to $25m rather than $17.5m but every time you do that you are kicking the future can that bit harder. Losing the ability to potentially press the Stef reset button makes everything else harder. It does make me lean towards try and get DaQuan Jones back on a one year deal but with a couple of void years to spread the hit out and then probably let every other FA you have walk. Maybe one or two come back on vet minimum $1.2m type deals later, but there is not a lot of scope. They are going to have to accept being younger and thinner on the backend of the roster in 2024 and just hope their luck turns in terms of injuries and their starters can stay relatively healthy. I don't think Elam will be on the roster in 2024. I think they'll try and trade him.

I didn't quite say that. I said his best form would make him easily the Bills best corner and I really do mean easily. I did not say I think he can easily get back to his best form. But I think even at 80-85% of the old Tre he is a starter on this team. As for the difference between 2022 season Tre and 2023 season Von that makes me significantly more confident on one than the other..... Tre was not at his best he was giving up more big plays than we are used to but overall he still only gave up 54% completion, 1 touchdown and a 75 passer rating when targeted in 6 games. He wasn't a liability out there. He was just kinda average. Von didn't even sniff average last year. He could barely move. It was night and day if you ask me.