GunnerBill

How does it?

I just asked Joe what his level of confidence is in Von having any impact at all in 2024 - his answer? None whatsoever.

Just heard a really good stat on Joe B's live roster primer on the Athletic. As a rookie Rousseau playes 100% left end. In 2022 it was 83% In 2023 it was only 45% He played a LOT more right end which is not his strongest position to accomodate Floyd and Von who both also wanna play left end. Not saying it completely explains why his production isn't higher but definitely worth considering.

Yea this was a year the Bills need it more than most.

Of those two options at those prices it is Gabe, no question. But I think he will get more than $10.5m too.

Not sure I fully understand the question. But I think Gabe is getting more than that. Sherfield as a last resort, yes. But I'd hope we can set our sights a tad higher than that.

You are missing the point. I am not arguing they should signa boundary receiver to be the #2 ahead of a draft pick. That isn't my argument.

Just watched Joe Marino on Locked on Bills and he basically gets to the same numbers. He saves a bit more on Douglas and a bit less on Johnson with his suggested structures but they balance out the same. These three extensions combined get you about $17-18m in space.

I think this year he will be restructured and stay. A trade is a possibility next offseason though. That makes a lot of sense to me.

That is the cap hit. He actually "made" $12.4m last year. The cap hit was $6.4m He will "make" $10.5m last year. The cap hit is currently $14.3m but will likely end up $11.5m

Agree we will never know. I suspect he panicked and tried to make it sound better than it was when the Bills first asked him and had to row back later. I can think of at least two occasions in my younger life where I reacted that way when I should have been honest straight off the bat. Not as serious as the Araiza situation but where I hadn't done anything that bad but thought denying everything flat out was the way to go.

I am not talking about looking to free agency for an upgrade to Davis. I don't think you will find one for a price the Bills can go to. Shakir and Kincaid are slot guys. I'm talking about if you think Diggs is still an elite option or close to it outside then you can fly with 2 or 3 guys (2 picks plus possibly Shorter) who have never played a down of NFL football. If you think there is a decline in Diggs game then it is probably wise to at least have another veteran option who can offer you something early in the season while you phase some young guys in. I don't expect that guy to be an upgrade on Gabe. Not at all. I expect that guy to be an upgrade on Sherfield or the year before on Kumerow. Your long term #2 (and hopefully long term #1) has to be the drafted guy. But if you have a somewhat diminished #1 and a #2 that takes some time to get up to speed your passing game is going to suffer in the short term. You would need someone else to pick up some slack.

If you can't enjoy watching this Bills team play I don't know what to tell you.

On the Green Bay example, the difference is they were not in a place where the playoffs were a must this year. It was much more a "see what we have" season. It worked out but they could afford to take a flier a bit more. My point is if Stef is still at or close to his best standard then even if your early draft pick rookie takes some time to come along and only breaks out second half of the year you are fine for Diggs to carry the burden until then with the underneath guys helping out. But if they think there is real decline you better have a vet in there who has some real experience of being an outside receiver. My first preference is the same as yours - draft two. But I think there is a world where I flip to "you need a baseline in here" in terms of a vet.

I don't agree on the first point I just don't think that is who Beane is. I think he would be much more careful than that and I remember that press conference well he looked genuinely crestfallen. I suspect what he based that on is a further conversation with Matt where he changed his story somewhat from earlier versions he had told the Bills once the material was in the public domain. I agree completely on your second point but unfortunately I fear the genie is out of the bottle and won't go back. Social media mob culture is here to stay.

Yea you hope your due diligence team picks this sort of stuff up.

And that is why a reunion was never likely. It wasn't about his guilt or innocence. It was about the fact that the trust was broken. It's a shame because I think what he likely did is panic when this blew up and rather than telling the truth and admitting to the things he had done but steadfastly defending himself on the things he hadn't he went for denial initially. It is understandable. I really feel for the kid. I was in the "don't rush to judgment" camp but the social media world makes it really difficult and put him and the Bills in an extremely difficult position.

I think Diggs is definitely here one year, possible two. But it isn't necessarily about how long Diggs is here... it is just about if you think there is a bit a decline in Diggs then leaving yourself this coming year with only him and a load of young guys who haven't played much is a risk.

Yea Martin did not have a good year. Of course the plan WAS to have a rookie deal guy with a big leg in Araiza before the incident. I am much less of a "must have a big leg" guy and much more of a directional punting guy but Martin struggled in both elements for much of 2023. A big part of the reason their special teams (particularly their coverage units) took a step back last year was the loss of Taiwan Jones. He was genuinely elite at what he did. I know fans hated him because he offered nothing as a running back but the Bills tried multiple guys at the other gunner spot opposite Neal last year and none of them performed close to Jones. They dropped 10 spots in both kick and punt coverage rankings - more than 2 yards worse per kick return and more than 3 yards worse per punt return on average. This is true. But he'd need to be basically the best in the league. Is that possible? Yea. Is it likely? Not at all.

The issue with Araiza is his hang time isn't great either. Hang time and directional punting are both weaknesses. What he does have is one of the strongest punting legs I've ever seen. I don't rule out him kicking a touchback even punting from his own 25 but there is going to be some risk with him IMO because he is a line drive punter and when you leave those short.... that is when big returns happen. All of which I was saying when we drafted him by the way... my comment at the time in my 2022 Draft day 3 debrief thread was: "I don't scout punters but obviously it was a need position and Matt Arazia certainly has a huge leg. The videos I have seen hang time would be somewhat of a concern and while when he catches one properly he likely takes returns out of the picture he only has to slightly mis-hit one and a big return becomes a risk because he almost line drives them. Getting him and the coverage unit in sync in camp and pre-season will matter."

Thought I'd post this one because it started quite differently and that kind of forced it to go away from some of the standard picks we have seen in these: 28. Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA - He was still there and my golden rule in the draft is never reach down a tier just for need. If you want to reach within a tier of prospects to take a guy you have graded slightly lower because you have a need at the position, fine. There will be questions about Latu's health situation but on the basis that he doesn't get red flagged he is a top tier prospect in this class. The Bills do have expiring contracts at edge as well so while it isn't the #1 need it is a need. ***TRADE!!! Bills give up #60 (2nd round); #129 (4th round); and #162 (5th round) for #52 (2nd round) and #212 (6th round)*** 52. Xavier Legette, Wide Receiver, South Carolina - People know I am higher than the consensus on Legette but my plan wasn't to trade up for him until the run on receivers started. By #50 ELEVEN receivers were off the board. Legette and Polk were the only two of all the guys we have talked about ad nauseum on this board left. Legette has future #1 receiver ceiling and I don't think Polk does. Polk went two picks later to the Browns making it 13 in the first 54 picks. 100. Dominick Puni, Guard, Kansas - I wasn't necessarily looking to take an offensive lineman here but the way the board fell Puni made most sense. I think end of the third is about his range. He is an older prospect (turns 24 tomorrow) and has played six years of college football. What that means is he is coming out pretty much the finished article in terms of physical profile but I like him technically and while I think he starts in the NFL at guard (maybe making McGovern an option at center if the Bills move on from Mitch Morse?) he played left tackle for Kansas and could definitely get you out of a game there if you needed him to. ***TRADE!!! Bills give up #159 (5th round); and #212 (6th round) for #151 (5th round)*** 151. Keith Randolph Jnr, Defensive Tackle, Illinois - I started trying to move up to target a receiver (Jermaine Burton was still on the board) but he went right before I was able to find a trade that worked. I decided to still pull the trigger and target Randolph who is a really physical run defender despite not being the biggest guy ever and I think could end up as a starting 1tech in the league. 198. Zion Tupuola- Fetui, Edge, Washington - Another older prospect and not someone I'd necessarily consider value earlier in the draft because he has limited second contract potential and is probably a backup / rotational player rather than a starter. But as a 6th round flier I think he has more natural talent than a lot of the guys left on the board at this spot. I'll use his cheap rookie contract years up as a low price DLine backup then let him walk. 202. Anthony Gould, Wide Receiver, Oregon State - I finally got a second receiver but he isn't really a receiver he is a return specialist. Even though he had 700 yards as a receiver in his final year in college at 5'8 his NFL ceiling is probably an Isaiah McKenzie type returner combined with some gimmick use in the offense. He had two punt return touchdowns in college and followed that up with one in the Shrine Bowl game. The Bills two return man options on the current roster are both expensive. Gould allows you to get cheaper at that spot. 206. Joe Milton, Quarterback, Tennessee - I have picked Milton in almost every one of these I've done. I am clear the Bills should take a swing on a toolsy Quarterback with one of their late day 3 picks in the hope of ending up with a cheap backup if not immediately then certainly after a year on the practice squad as a rookie. 246. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, Safety, Texas Tech - This was the first time the value at safety lined up with where I was picking. I actually think he is a fit for the Bills scheme based on my limited exposure to him. He looks like a zone safety. I have seen a fair few people grade him as an early day three pick so in the 7th round he represents value and even if he doesn't become an every down starter his coverage skills make him a legit candidate to play in dime packages. Not necessarily saying I love this draft, I am disappointed not to get a viable developmental safety and second receiver earlier, but in terms of an interesting draft that fell differently than a lot of the others on here I thought worth posting and talking through.

Just based on your last two efforts I like Jackson at #98 a lot better than I like him at #60. I don't like Dorlus as a scheme fit for the Bills though. He is a 5tech who needs to play defensive end in a 3-4 IMO.

This is my preference too - get two guys in the draft who are going to be here for 4 years minimum with Josh rather than 1/2 year vet guy. But that does sort of depend how they really feel about Diggs in the building. If they think the production drop 2nd half of the year was a case of him being a bit banged up, Josh and he just failing to connect on 3/4 deep balls (between Stef dropping a couple and Josh missing him on a couple of potential big home runs) and teams really keying in on him with Gabe's struggles then I'd go to the two rookie route. If, however, their honest view is there are signs of the beginning of the decline with Stef then I think I'd want another vet option in the building.

They played most of this season with Tyrel Dodson starting at linebacker and a revolving door of characters coming in and out of the secondary and they were a top 10 defense. They need some pieces there but beyond one safety they are not pieces I think they should be dedicating a lot of $$s to. My plan is make a safety your 1 first wave of free agency move - but don't pay top of the market there will be 8-10 serviceable vet starters out there. And I'd try again in the June market for a vet pass rusher with the money I'd save by cutting the corpse of Von Miller's career. I don't think the Bills will do that though, Von will likely be here, so safety would be my only reasonably sized contract. They will need some lower value Dline depth pieces but I'm talking contracts of the level that they don't get comp pick formula consideration (not saying the comp pick formula should be be all and end all by the way, that is just a proxy for the value level I'm talking in terms of those backups. If I was making a second move in the initial free agency wave it would be a vet receiver. DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, maybe Kendrick Bourne. Someone in that sort of tier. I'd probably pass on the vet route though and be trying to get two viable receivers from the draft though. Ideally I want someone with #1 receiver ceiling early and then someone late with some inside/outside flex who can be what Gabe was his first two years here and be your first guy in off the bench who knows all three spots.

Not at punter it isn't. I was never quite as high as the hype on him but I certainly understand the swing on his potential at a cheap price.