GunnerBill

That is definitely a legit concern. 23 and one year of production. Those guys do not have a great track record. But equally I am not sure there is a proven causal link that says they never can - and indeed @DCOrange's list has a couple of guys in Jennings and McLaurin who have been really good NFL receivers - so you have to pick a guy like that with your eyes open to the risks but still judge them on their merits.

He is but he has been a "must get an X" guy at times too. Had to have an edge in 2021, had to have a corner in 2022, had to have a pass catcher in 2023. I know he got all those in round 1... but I think he knows he has to get out of the first two rounds with a receiver and they have talked a lot about explosiveness. I don't see a single scenario where Worthy is in contention at #28. But in a scenario where they go elsewhere at #28 I could see a scenario where he is in play in round 2. Again, not my ideal scenario. I suspect not theirs either. But a possibility all the same.

I'd be out on Worthy round 1. But if we were to go another direction round 1 - edge is the only other spot I feel like is really in the mix - and the run on receivers were to continue early in round 2 and it were Worthy or none of the early round guys then in that scenario I'm open to him. But he is a #2 receiver in my view. Not someone who you take and start as a #2 with the hope he ends up developing into your #1 post Diggs. He is just a #2 who plays flanker and you move about the formation.

Yep. An outside guy earlier and a versatile guy with inside / outside flex in the mid rounds IMO. That is the ideal outcome. Obviously you have to take the draft as it comes and not reach for guys, but in the ideal scenario that is the way I'd play receiver here.

But Bates was committed to as a starter. That was my issue with their 2022 approach. He is a guy who can start and not get destroyed. But he is not a guy who you can start and expect him to improve one of the poorest lines in football. They needed upgrades and settled for a baseline player.

Yea they can but basically the implication is the same.... whether they cut him pre-medical or cut him post medical but also post guarantee activating they end up with their 2024 cap savings reduced from roughly 6 to 4.5.

I wasn't saying talent isn't talent. That wasn't really my point, it was that one of the impressive things about Legette is that he beats teams even when they are selling out to stop him. I wasn't diminishing the other guys, I was saying it is something that impresses me about Legette. Although I am lower on Thomas than you. I think he is in the mix with the second tier guys not close to the top tier guys. He could go in the top 20 I think - late teens to late 20s is his range. But if I'm a team after a long term #1 I wonder whether he can do enough.

All the best teams pretty much do now. I crunched the numbers on this recently. KC have three who played high 60s percentage wise, but the majority of teams have one guy playing 65-75% and then 1 or 2 in the mid 50s and a load of rotation beneath that. The issue is the Bills haven't had cheap guys in that rotation. It has been decent FA deals or high picks. One of KC's three heavy usage guys is Mike Danna - a 5th round pick. That is the kind of thing we need, some cheap, young guys capable of being in that 7 or 8 man rotation.

I largely agree but Ed Oliver was good every year except year 2. He didn't get the gaudy sack numbers until this year but his underlying analytics pressures and pass rush win rate show he was still affecting the pocket plenty.

Yea they can't cut him without the additional guarantee coming into place. That was my point. I was trying to keep it quite simple.

Teams can dump as many contracts as they like and not have to pay players anything further. When a team cuts a player the money that is left behind on the cap is money ALREADY paid. If the Bills cut Von tomorrow they don't own him a single extra penny. The dead cap is all money he already has.

Basically the easy way to think about it is dead money is money that has been paid already but not accounted for on the cap yet.

But they can't cut him until he can pass a medical by which time the additional guarantee has triggered and the money saved by cutting him is reduced further... which is a further reason why they should negotiate in exactly the way you say.

And to add to what @DCOrange says above - I completely agree with him that the age and single year of college production are legit "flags" on Legette's profile. I agree that the track record of guys with that profile coming into the NFL is not stellar. But I think his 2023 film is very good and it is very good despite him being a one man offense. There was nobody else among the passing game weapons at South Carolina who will even play on Sundays. Teams were focussed on trying to take Legette away, especially by mid-season - the Florida game stood out to me.... it was almost as if the defenses were only playing Legette and he still had a big day. That is where to me he is just more impressive than some of other guys in the 2nd/3rd tier of this class - he had to stand up week after week and make the plays and be the alpha. Sure the two Texas kids have their merits but they also helped one another. Brian Thomas's production was definitely helped by Malik Nabers playing opposite him, Polk was opposite Odunze and even Franklin had Tez Johnson who has a chance to be a day 2 type pick next year to pick up some slack. I am not surprised Todd McShay is describing him as a polarizing prospect. I think he will be exactly that. I think he will likely go in the first half of round 2, that is my prediction. There will be some teams that wouldn't touch him until round 3, I suspect that is right, but it only takes 1 to like him enough to go early and I think there will be. But honestly tape grade he is my WR4, I have him Franklin and Thomas basically in a muddle with late 1st and borderline 1st/2nd type grades and if Legette were to disappoint at the combine I could flip that some... I think he is a player who needs to perform well this week. He will still be in that little cluster for me but those 3 guys are close enough on tape to my eye that the testing profile will matter some to the order they end up in.

He can play Center, yep. Was a good signing. I said at the time we made much better OL moves last offseason - signing McGovern and drafting Torrence - than the year before - signing Saffold and committing to Bates.

I think Legette will run faster than McConkey.

Great career. He can still write and be a thought provoking columnist.... but everyone has a sell by date. Go while people are still sorry to see you leave.

I don't think Bryce is top tier and the rest of their WRs aside from Wilson suck balls.

So would I if it were on offer. It is a long shot but that is the only way to me that moving Diggs this year is sensible. This time next year I think it is much more feasible that the Bills and Stef part company.

Round 3 is the earliest IMO.

I don't know where you saw those numbers but they are not correct. Any movement of Diggs now escalates his full guarantee onto the 2024 cap and costs us additional money. You are right on the $18.5m actual cash saving if he is traded but Pegula isn't someone who has been bothered by actusl cash thus far. Hence Beane has had the freedom to maximise the cap flexibility. I suppose there is one way that makes sense which is a post 1 June trade player for player for problem children receivers. Say Diggs for AJ Brown straight up if both want out. We could absorb AJ's contract within the $19m cap space we make for Stef. Not totally sure the Eagles can do the same because they only save about $2m in 2024 space from a post 1 June trade of AJ and Stef would still cost $18.5m base even leaving his dead money here. There are ways of resolving that potentially so something like that is feasible but it is a complete long shot.

It is that he has not a single extra dollar due from the Bills at this point and his best chance of rehabbing and getting back to form is here where the regime love him, the team knows his body and he knows the scheme. Therefore there is incentive to offer him a small amount of guaranteed new money (I suggested $8m, I think Joe B suggested $10m) in exchange for him taking a significant cut in the unguaranteed chunks he is due in 2024 and 2025. That way you lower his cap hits to about $10m per year the next two years, kick a little bit of the bonus into some void years beyond 2025 (and I'm talking max $4-5m spread over two years) and give yourself Tre under contract in 2024 while still saving the same $$s off the cap as cutting him would and you get an out after 2024 so if he is washed or he gets hurt again you can move on and it costs you less than the $10m in dead money it costs now if we cut him.

If you cut him today all his guarantees ($31m) accelerate onto this year's cap and he costs you $3.2m more to NOT play for you in 2024 than he would to play for you. That makes no sense paying a 1,000 yard receiver to go away. That would clear Diggs from the cap for 2025 and beyond but makes no sense. If you cut him after the start of the league year as a post 1 June cut it gains you $19m in 2024 space but all the remaining hits accelerate onto the 2025 cap. It would save you $5m of space on the 2025 cap (he's account just for the $22m of dead money and not the entire $27m he is slated to cost next year) but it saves you nothing additional to what cutting him after 2024 would. The problem with scenario 2 is you can't spend that money until after 1 June. So you cut Diggs after the point the chance to replace him is gone. I think by far the most sensible outcome is the Bills do nothing with his contract this spring, do no restructure him or kick the can further and re-visit it next January. At that point cutting him, trading him, or restructuring him should all be on the table depending on where we are with his performance and his level of commitment to the team.

I don't think they planned to draft a tight end. They planned to draft a receiver but knew they needed a weapon for Josh and Dalton is more a receiver than a two way tight end in any event at this point. Of his 784 offensive snaps in 2023 he only played tight end on 247 of those and almost 50% came in the five games Knox missed. He was 50% a slot receiver, 31% a tight end, 18% split wide and 1% in the backfield. So I don't think they drafted him for his tight end skill so much as they drafted him for his pass catching. Not that I'm arguing receiving tight ends and wide receivers are completely interchangeable, they are not. And while the Bills played a fair amount of 12 personnel in 2023 they have to remain balanced with 11. But I don't think they were planning to replace Knox going into the 2023 draft, or coming out of it. However, where they are now I'm not sure they are going to be able to be a 60% plus 12 personnel team. But equally I don't think you can yet go heavy 11 with Dalton Kincaid and have the flexibility to run or pass down to down. They are going to have to be a bit more package specific with them in the short term. I suspect another year of both of them, let Kincaid work on his blocking (there was some improvement as 2023 wore on) and then next spring I can imagine them taking calls for Knox for a mid round pick. As long as he continues to be an effective redzone weapon (and at the moment in the redzone I think Knox is still BETTER than Kincaid) he will have trade value. On the pass receiving back thing I think you have more of a point about there being a disconnect somewhere. Beane has obsessed over pass catching backs since he has been here. They have had multiple goes at filling that role - from TJ Yeldon, to the guy they tried to get from Washington (McKissic), to drafting Cook and talking specifically about his ability as a receiver to trading for Hines. But they have never truly committed to it as part of their offense. Check downs are not actually Josh's strongest suit. His ball placement is better 25 yards downfield than it is sometimes on those check down routes. Joe Brady used the back a lot both at LSU and at Carolina, and showed signs of committing to it last year when he took over so maybe finally they will be in sync - and if Cook can clean up the concentration drops in the redzone they could be onto something. But that will be after at least 5 years of trying! The other area where I have always felt they were muddled in their thinking is the type of oline they wanted and tried to build. They veered from big physical run graders, to athletic guys who can move laterally, and ended up with a cobbled together mess for about 3 seasons. That can only be a disconnect Beane and the coaching staff as to scheme and style. I think they have consistently wanted to build a zone run game but that is really hard with a Quarterback who wants to be in the gun as much as Josh. I dunno, just feel like Daboll and Dorsey were both culpable for trying to force something that wasn't working and McDermott and Beane were ultimately culpable for not setting a clearer direction of travel.

It hurts their cap in 2024 without really doing anything to improve it in 2025. If this was a take the pain in 2024 because it helps us next year idea, fine. But it doesn't.