GunnerBill

Definitely true for the guys getting 1st, 2nd and 3rd round grades from the advisory committee - but if you have an NIL offer and are getting a day 3 grade from the advisory committee I would imagine it makes the incentive to go back to school, taking that money, and hoping to improve your draft stock in a further year even more attractive than it was before NIL and the money was a factor.

Pittman was never getting out of Indy.

Matakevich still exists on the cap but it is void year dead money.

Yea that would make sense because I confess that wasn't something that jumped out at me on Mitchell.

I actually found the bit at the end of the video the most interesting about fits and the role of the X vs the Z in the NFL and college. He did have some interesting takes on the receivers though. Called both Texas kids body catchers.

On the point about this draft..... it is definitely a stronger class at the top than the last couple. I am at 20 true first round grades. Last year was particularly low with 11 - but generally in recent years I've ended up at about 18. I think it is a good group through rounds 2 and 3 as well. Last year's draft my 100th best grade was a mid to late 4th. I think very conceivable based where I am at so far that my 100th grade could well be a full round higher. Does it drop off some? Possibly, a bit. I think there are players there in the later rounds but they are older prospects. They are 5th and 6th year guys where the physical potential is maxed out. I don't think there are many guys there you are taking a late flier on and thinking "this kid is raw but I can turn him into something" it is much more "this kid is what he is and his ceiling is a backup / contributor on STs." So I'd describe day 3 as more safe floors than normal, fewer high ceilings than normal.

We do hold all the cards, I agree. It is why I think a paycut is the most likely option.

The Tre savings are not the simple (complicated by the injury) and in reality unless he can pass a medical before the league year starts in two weeks the max save there is $4.5m. A pay cut is still the way to go on Tre IMO. They could try and trade Douglas, that's true. They could still keep him. They could cut him. I was just taken by Beane's phrasing. I thought Douglas was a lock for a short extension to spread money. Maybe they have had those conversations and they haven't gone well.

He broke his leg. You can break your leg whether you are 5'9 or 6'5. He looks borderline undraftable to me.

They are very aligned. But I posted the numbers the other week I think by and large Beane's draft priorities reflect a man who learned his trade under Harney and Gettleman in Carolina. They relentlessly picked DLine and linebackers early, only took three receivers in the first 3 rounds over the course of a decade and until Ekwonu hadn't taken a first round OL in nearly 20 years. So I think some of it is the influence of coaching... but some of it is just this is who Beane is and how he believes in building a team.

That is the bit I dispute. There were times last year when his level of discomfort just moving was concerning. I hope I am wrong. But I can't see Von making an impact in 2024.

Theoretically McDermott does. This is his show. He has more power than Beane. But he also has ultimate trust in Beane and doesn't meddle in the personnel decisions any more than your standard HC per sources I have. The coaching staff do evaluate and grade targets prior to the draft and the scouts take that into account but the decision maker on draft night is Brandon Beane. He makes the personnel decisions. Is there a decision he has wanted to make that McD has vetoed? I can't say definitely not, but the person I spoke to says his trust level in Beane is very high and he broadly trusts him to get on with running personnel.

Yea. You hope for the best. So do I. But it is hope and nothing else.

I think draft classes are still a bit funky and recovering from Covid eligibility rules. If in two years we are still seeing way less underclassmen declare than before NIL theb we can draw conclusions. But for now there are other factors at play. If I am an underclassman and got a 4th round grade this year from the advisory committee I might be more reluctant because there is a bulk of 5th and 6th year guys Im competing against in that range. Of it sustains into 25 and 26 then let's revisist.

Yea BTJ is an ultimate one trick pony to my eye. But then so was (and is) DK Metcalf. When that one trick is winning vertically up the field it is worth having. But you need a compliment. The Bills have one right now in Diggs - the Seahawks had Lockett - but once Stef ages out you'd need to maintain that high level intermediate option to maximise BTJ's effectiveness IMO.

I agree if he can contribute you cut him after year 3. That was always the way the deal was designed. But I genuinely think he is done. Therefore it is sunk cost. And spending another $6.7m on him that we don't have to makes no sense to me. It does accelerate a lot of cap hit into 2025 that would otherwise spread between 2025 and 2026, that is true. But to me spending another single dollar on Von that we don't have to (which is just that $6.7m) is throwing good money after bad. I would. Based on what I saw with my eyes. Which was a guy barely able to move. This was not 2022 Tre White where he was out there competing but not close to his best. Von the majority of his snaps was less effective than a traffic cone.

I'd offer a pair of used boxer shorts and $5 dollar off voucher for Wendy's.

Nope. That $6.7m is money that we never pay if we cut him. It is the unguaranteed portion of this year's salary. It isn't that I'm mad at Von. Not at all. It is that I genuinely think he is finished. Watching him last year was painful even watching him move let alone try and rush. He had two nice plays vs the Steelers - that is true - and I'm suddenly asked to believe that is proof he is back. I'd love to be wrong, but I think he is toast. My guess is he ends up replacing AJE as badically the passing downs only defensive end in 2024 and ends up with 4 or 5 sacks maximum. I think, sadly, it was one serious injury too far for a guy his age.

He sort of half suggested they want AJE back because he talked about "it only takes one team to be willing to overpay a guy and you lose 'em" and the only guy I could see that happening with is Epenesa. He also hinted another dust settles June move like Leonard Floyd could be in the offing to fill that unit out.

No it is about Von.

Nah. If they cut him with a post 1 June it saves us $6.7m this year. But it isn't happening. They are keeping him and doubling down. They better have a backup plan though because I think he is toast.

I think Tez will go round 3 at the earliest.

Brandon Beane is always worth a listen because he is a straight shooter and sometimes probably tells you more than he should. Having listened to his presser and his huddle with the Buffalo media here are my takeaways: 1. They are going to add a receiver early but it doesn't have to be a specific type and he doesn't have to have a specific skillset. They are going to evaluate all these guys in the round and the one they take will be because they think he is the best available at their spot and the value matches the round; 2. Von Miller is on the team in 2024. I know we all suspected that anyway, some of us hoped it wasn't necessarily the case but the Bills are doubling down; 3. Rasul Douglas is not the absolute lock to be back I think most of us assumed. He twice went immediately to past tense when talking about him "I liked what he brought to our defense" and "it was a pleasure getting to know him." Now neither of those definitely mean he is gone, but there are ways of making those same points without phrasing in the past tense and as I said at the start sometimes Beane tells you more than he means to. It definitely made my ears prick up. He is almost $10m of pure savings with zero dead cap if they cut him. I'm not saying I expect them to but I thought the tense he used was interesting. 4. They are not going to use their 1st round pick on a safety. Beane was pretty clear that at that spot he thinks about smarts and study habits and not 40 times and athletic profiles. I think that screamed to be they are going to take a guy who is good on tape not good in shorts. 5. Don't expect them to draft OL early and do expect them to extend Dion. I also would not be at all surprised if they extend Spencer Brown before the season. He seemed very happy with the situation up front.

I think Murphy will be gone in reality but good question. I love the two defensive tackles at the top of this class - Newton and Murphy. They are my kind of defensive tackle, quick penetrators, aggressive and good with their hands. But I think both have to play 3T and Ed Oliver was the best player not name Josh Allen on our team in 2023. I don't know that with our roster as it is we can afford to spend our 1st round pick on the position manned by our best non-Quarterback of the past season. So if that situation arises I think the play is trade back, collect picks... but don't go beyond say #40 unless you are getting significant ammo to come back up with.

I've just watched it too and I agree with you. They are not looking for a the best explosive receiver. They are going to look for the best receiver taking everything into account. I don't think it is one thing above all others. They are going to evaluate it in the round and take the guy they think is the best.