GunnerBill

I can see it. I don't like it particularly but he is the one non-WR who is a realistic a possibility to be there in and around the range of where we pick who I could imagine us picking. Edit: I typed non QB originally. Obviously I meant non WR d'oh!

From Michigan but played his college ball at Missouri, yes. I definitely agree if Latu (UCLA) is on the board you pick him. He is almost certainly the BPA at that spot. As discussed above I'd be more wary on Chop Robinson (Penn St) but I can imagine the Bills loving him.

Yep. Agree totally with this. He did, at the Senior Bowl, show more explosion than you saw on tape but then his run at the Combine was disappointing. I think he is exactly as you say in a 4-3 - just a bigger end who plays the run and bull rushes. To me his best fit is as a 5 tech in a 3-4 but I think someone will convince themselves that he can be a speed rusher outside, particularly from a two point stance as an 3-4 outside backer. I hope that someone isn't the Bills.

I don't know. Nor do I know if McDermott does that.

I don't think he was suggesting you were arguing to run it back. He was directing that at the Bills. He was their 5th choice safety in 2023. Cam Lewis was out there ahead of him. I agree he wasn't very good pre-Cincinnati and while I am relieved, happy and respectful of his comeback he isn't a guy I'd count on.

1. I didn't disagree emoji the post I responded to. I have told you before I don't see you name and instantly click disagree because you are negative. I only click disagree when I genuinely disagree on your takes. 2. The only guy I strongly disagree on is Ed Oliver. I know you don't agree because I saw you argue it elsewhere so no need to rehearse it here, but Ed's playoff numbers are solid. He didn't play well against KC this year, no argument there. But Ed has stood up in the playoffs as a rule. The other person you can make an argument for is Dawson Knox. 39 targets, 28 catches, 19 first downs and 6 touchdowns in 10 games. Neither of them have had a "Gabe Davis vs KC" type single game but both have been consistently good for the Bills in the playoffs. 3. I think generally I have been saying "Beane needs to draft more difference makers" since before you were on this forum. He is good compared to his peers at finding NFL starters in the draft. He is less good at finding the elite level difference makers. When Taron Johnson was voted 2nd team all pro this year he was the first Brandon Beane draft pick not name Josh Allen to make an all pro team. That is a problem. 4. I at no point have sought to excuse Beane from culpability for our cap situation and my posts are very clear on that (although I wouldn't describe it as a mess necessarily, think that overplays it... but we definitely have a cap crunch that is in part of his own making). All I did was add the context of around VOID YEARS which was, after all, what this thread is actually about.

Yes.

I wasn't seeking to disagree with what you said. Just to add additional context. While Beane is accountable for where we are cap wise he did just get plain unlucky having to extend Josh Allen in the middle of the restricted cap era and that has exacerbated some of the problems. It isn't an explanation for all of it, but when talking about why we are where we are cap wise it is a part of the picture that shouldn't be overlooked.

Every other Head Coach at some point has said 31 teams end the season disappointed. It is an ultimate NFL cliche.

No I'd be leery too. I'm not saying he is what I'd do - he doesn't use his hands well enough for me and people who have engaged with me for years on this stuff know I really value hands for pass rushers. But I can imagine the Bills loving him. He feels like their type to me. They love these athletic freaks and while he is slightly undersized he is still big enough I think - and we know from Ed Oliver they are willing to overlook size for explosiveness. He is astronomically high ceiling even if I think his floor is pretty low.

While that is true the 3rd round is also a place where you still don't reach down a tier to take a position you need. Obviously for this exercise we are all using the simulator's draftboard as if it were our own so to play that out in round one I never reach beyond the top 5 players on their board. Round 2 not beyond the top 8 and rounds 3 and 4 not beyond the top 10. After that I give myself a little more leeway because that is realistic. Once you get to rounds 5 through 7 teams are looking at their rosters and saying "where might these guys have the best chance to stick." But earlier reaching through tiers is a no-no. So you have to either take trades and move back, trade UP or sometimes take a position that isn't necessarily a need. I say all that as someone who also does not want yet ANOTHER day 2 pick on a running back. When you have an established starter at the spot that should be a no-no too. I normally try and do a 4 round mock in the final day or two of the run up where I use the simulator but use my own board and mark guys off in the background as it goes.

I don't see them cutting Gilliam AND Neal. That would mean losing their three best special teamers in one fell swoop and I don't think they are going to do that. I know fans disregard special teams but NFL teams don't. Matakevich is gone and I'm not expecting him back, the question is can they afford both Gilliam and Neal. I suspect not. But their gunner play took a noticeable drop off last year with no Taiwan Jones so that possibly makes Neal even more important. On the other hand Reggie Gilliam is kind of three players in one - core special teamer (particularly on punt team where he plays wing protector), fullback when they use one and emergency tight end. In the middle of last year they had got away from him totally on offense and I'd have said that made him more expendable but then Brady re-integrated him a bit. I don't know. I don't expect both back, but I think one of them will be. I also still think a pay cut is more likely than an outright cut with Tre White. My reasons are set out extensively elsewhere on the forum. Otherwise I think broadly you have players in the right categories.

I don't think DT is too bad depth wise and in any event the only guys you'd spend a first on are Newton and Murphy who are 3Techs that I don't think you are drafting that high to play 30-40% of the snaps behind and occasionally next to (on pure passing downs) Ed Oliver. Edge is worse. The class is not deep at all. But at the same time unless one of the top 3 guys drops to them at #28 (in which case they should pick them because they will almost certainly be the BPA) then I don't think there is a guy likely to make sense. Although as I've said before I imagine the Bills liking Chop Robinson. He just strikes me as their type. Athletic freak, 9.68 RAS....

I mean he also said he expects to win a Superbowl. So you have to consider what he said in the round.

I don't buy the gas tank being empty stuff. Ed didn't play his best game against KC, which is unusual because actually he has generally been really good against them. His previous 5 games vs KC (regular season and playoffs) he has had 6 pressures, 4 knockdowns, 2 pass breakups, 1.5 sacks and 4 TFLs. He generally plays really well against them. The 13 second game he was unquestionably our best defender. Kansas City's interior oline is really good - that is definitely a fact and Kansas City's plan was largely to get the ball out early Mahomes time to throw was down on recent meetings vs the Bills - but Ed just didn't play his best game. I think he'd be the first to tell you that.

Yes. He is totally a pure slot. There is no way he can win outside consistently against NFL corners. Not only do I think 5'11 is slightly wishful thinking (let's see what the Combine measurement is) he has shorter arms and that more than anything else is a limiting factor for the outside.

It is certainly a bit the risky swing they took on Miller. It is a bit that they haven't weaned themsleves off the middle class vet backups but also, in fairness to Beane, it is still a bit decisions they had to make to deal with the cap going backwards in covid. It hurt teams like the Bills more than most in that they were trying to do the mega deal with their Quarterback in the same period as navigating a reduced cap and so they weren't as able to do what you normally do which is front load a few contracts of other guys into that window where Josh is on the new deal but his annual hits stay low. Other guys they were extending at that time like Dawkins, Milano and Taron were all deals that pushed the bigger cap hit down the road and here we are at the back end of those contracts with them all on bigger numbers. Had the cap continued to rise at the normal rate in 2020 and 2021 I think you'd be at least $15m or so better off in cap terms from having accounted for some higher numbers on those deals earlier in the piece. That would still leave us over the cap so the first two factors which are entirely of the Bills own making are not diminished. Beane is definitely culpable. But some of the excuse he makes for himself is legit. As for void years generally - it's always been done and always been allowed but normally infrequently. Since the Covid cap restriction there has been an explosion in their use league wide. The Bills are far from alone in this. It will be interesting when we get another year or two out from Covid and those deals signed in 2020 and 2021 start to come off teams' dockets whether the void years trend disappears (or reduces back to what it was) or whether now it is here as a cap management staple it just continues being used at the current rate.

Not correct. I have replied to your thread.

Void years exist to spread money ALREADY PAID in real terms out for accounting purposes on the cap. We are not "already paying" Floyd $4m this year. We paid him $9m for last year. It is just half the money is accounted for this year.

No. Von.

He didn't have his best game against KC and what they showed is what the case most of the year and particularly down the stretch when Floyd completely collapsed. When Ed wasn't it the Dline disappeared. It's also worth saying that the interior of KC's line is the best in football. I love Newton. I think he is getting missed in a lot of the chatter. I have a top 10 grade on him. I don't see him necessarily as a fit for the Bills because I think, like Byron Murphy the other first round DT, he is really a 3T and that is where Ed plays. I don't see the Bills with their holes using their first round pick on a spot where one of their top 5 players is the undisputed starter.

My guy! So happy for the success Matt Miller has had. He is a really good evaluator and he is a good dude. I'm pretty much self taught in my amateur attempts at evaluating prospects but of the stuff I have learnt from others most of it is from Matt. When ESPN let Todd McShay go it was like an NFL team cutting a veteran receiver right after it drafted a stud in the first round of the draft - get younger, cheaper and a higher ceiling.

I agree the need now is for an X. I think Stef should transition much more to the Z and even to the slot in certain packages and I think Joe Brady went much more in that direction than Dorsey who was still using Stef as the X plenty in the first half of the year.

The Bills actually mixed up a lot whether Stef was the X or Gabe was the X. They both played the X and both played the Z. They were used relatively interchangeably. I think it did start to slant towards Gabe between Joe taking over and Gabe getting hurt.

There is a pretty well respected methodology for grading mocks (although there are multiple ways to do it and you can cut it multiple ways) Fantasy Pros. Here is the link to their grading from last year: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/mock-drafts.php but I have never seen anything going back and critiquing big boards.