GunnerBill

On THIS point. On Gilliam. I have given you the evidence. The numbers. And the plays. You ignore them. As for putting a number on Allen's games worth to us... this roster with Barkley or Kyle Allen at Quarterback would win about 6 games. If we had a top level backup we would win about 8. If you swapped Josh Allen with Dak or Carr or Kirk we'd win about 10. With Josh we should win about 12. But there is no science behind that. It is just guessing as you go up the tiers of alternative QB options. Is that what you wanted?

My position has never changed. It is there very clearly in this threat all the way through. Consistent. The problem is you in every single scenario willfully read thing that are not there into my posts. And then start long arguments about things I haven't said. I am not backtracking. The point has never been that the individual elements of what Gilliam does are irreplaceable. The argument has always been that the package is very difficult to find in one player. Reggie Gilliam far from costing us a roster spot that could go to someone more impactful saves us at least one possibly two because he can do so many of the unfashionable jobs that have to be done on an NFL football team and despite them not being "impact plays" those unfashionable jobs impact outcomes. But even when presented with the evidence of how that can be true you say you don't believe it. So of course we are never going to agree. Because I have evidence. And you have feelings.

The evidence is actually 3 specific plays AND the numbers. And I never argued the offense wouldn't be "fine" without Gilliam. That is yet another strawman. My argument was entirely about the fact that he serves a dual role on offense and a key role on special teams in one player. And that level of versatility and flexibility makes him valuable to the roster. Read back. That was always my argument. It was finding a player who can be used in the ways Gilliam can on offense and be a very good STer in a single body isn't easy and he saves us a roster spot in that sense. Before he was here we had Pat DiMarco, to play full back, we had Lee Smith to be a blocking only tight end. That was 1 full back, 4 tight ends. We are now at 1 full back, 3 tight ends.... and he is better than Julian Stanford the backup linebacker who was playing his primary ST responsibilities previously. That has ALWAYS been my justification of Gilliam's roster spot. You get a ST stud and save a spot on offense. And you get that in one player. And he can be used on offense in a way neither Lee Smith or Pat DiMarco could. The Beane one. It is roughly 50% QB, 25% rest of roster, 25% coaching. So QB is worth about double of the other two elements.

It is in the other thread.

You should really read what I say. I said "Because without racking up numbers he has had a big impact on both." That is quite clear I wasn't talking about him making big impact plays. I was talking about his usage having a big impact. And it did. The numbers prove it. I can't link the video because it came from my Game Pass subscription. If I linked to it they'd be dead links to anyone who doesn't have my Game Pass. It is why I was careful to give the exact time stamps for the plays I was referring to. On Klein my logic was he'd make the team as the break glass in case of emergency "at least we know who this guy is" in case whoever won the starting job sucked so badly they had to pull the plug. I have provided you the link to that view.

I have never beem trying to argue that Reggie Gilliam himself makes loads of impact plays. That isn't his role. He made some important plays in that game but his presence and his usage had a big impact on the outcome. He helps the Bills to get favourable matchups and to get the KC defense into unfavourable match ups. Maybe you think those numbers when he is on the field are coincidence. You can make that argument if you wish. But at that point you are ignoring the evidence and just seeking confirmation bias that he doesn't do anything.

Haha Isabella is cute. He is in contention for a top 5 spot on the Bills. Still: Diggs, Poyer, Milano top 3 for me.... but I can see a route to Isabella stealing 4th or 5th.

I don't know that it is quantifiable. I honestly don't. But broadly I'd say about 50% QB, 25% rest of roster talent, 25% coaching. So I'd say it has double the impact of the other two factors.

I have just watched back the 2022 win at Kansas City. Let's start with the numbers: The Bills had 72 offensive snaps in the game and a net total of 443 yards. The final 2 were kneel downs that were minus 8 yards combined. So excluding kneel downs the Bills had 451 yards from 70 plays - which works out at 6.4 yards per play. Reggie Gilliam played in 18 offensive snaps (excluding the two kneel downs) - which equates to 26%. In those 18 snaps the Bills had 151 yards which is 8.4 yards per play. The Bills converted 26 first downs in the game. Reggie Gilliam was on the field for 10 of them. That equates to 38% of the first downs, despite only being in on 26% of the plays. The Bills passed on 9 of the 18 plays Gilliam was in. 7 were completed. 1 drew a defensive PI and only 1 was incomplete. Josh was excellent on the day 26/40. But he was 7/8 (with the PI not counting in that score) on passes thrown with Gilliam on the field. It is fair and correct to say he was not on the field on any of the three touchdown passes. He had two particularly impactful plays on the first Bills drive of the game. (12:18 - 1st) 1st & 10, KC 43 - Singletary up the middle for 10 yards and a first down. Gilliam drives Nick Bolton back and creates the gap Singletary bursts through. (11:16 - 1st) 2nd & 2, KC 25 - Gilliam split wide sells the curl route outside holds the OLB Darius Harris and allows Diggs (who lined up in the slot) a 1v1 against Nick Bolton which he wins for 8 yards and a first down. In the second half he converts one of those 10 first downs himself (1:22 - 3rd) 1st & 10, BUF 36 - Gilliam catch and run 11 yards and a first down. And the key to what he does and why the Bills like to use him against Kansas City is he keeps them in base 4-3 personnel. I talked about it in my reflections on the TNF vs Detroit, they did a good job of keeping Kansas City in 4-3 base. When they are in 4-3 base that mean L'Jarius Sneed who is one of the best nickel corners in football is invariably playing on the boundary. Which both takes him out of the middle of the field and opens that area up and gives you a slightly vulnerable outside corner where his skill set fits less well. It is Gilliam's versatility that makes him particularly useful in those situations. He lined up in the backfield, on the line, and was split wide 5 times too. That is where his value is to the offense. He can help create favourable looks that the players around him can exploit. I accept that the Bills don't use him much at all on offense some weeks but even then you have his special teams value. Twice just in this pre-season the Bills had punts blocked or partially blocked from players in Gilliam's normal spot whiffing on their block. Shakir one week and one of the lower depth (now PS) receivers another. So it goes back to exactly what I was saying. There are certain games and certain gameplans where Gilliam is a really important chess piece for them because of his versatility and because of his skill set. If they didn't keep him they could find a better pure blocking full back, no disagreement there, but they couldn't easily find the package of versatility, flexibility, blocking and special teams play that they get in Reggie Gilliam. And that is why, despite your protestations, the Bills have considered him worthy of the contract he has and he remains part of this roster. He is not irreplaceable, he isn't the difference between winning Superbowls or not, but he is a valuable backend of the roster player.

I have said it multiple times. I repeat it now. Quarterback play in the NFL is the single biggest determinative factor in wins and losses. Josh Allen is the single biggest reason that this team is reigning 3 time division champion. That has never been questioned by me in anything I have said. I did think Klein would make the the team but I was NOT one of the people telling you he was good. Not at all, again, putting words in my mouth I never said. I thought he'd make the team because they would only have limited trust in whichever one of Dodson / Bernard won the job and they'd want Klein as their break glass in case of emergency vet. My prediction was whichever one of Bernard or Dodson lost the job would be cut and they'd keep Klein as their vet insurance. But I never expected him to start, let alone told you he was good. You have accused me of this before and I've told you that you have me mistaken with someone else on Klein. HERE is my opinion on the MLB battle to prove what I say above. As for Kirksey... I think at his best he was a better MLB than Klein. Klein was never a starting MLB really. He did in some to cover injuries for Keuchly in Carolina and then did it some to cover injuries for Edmunds here but his entire career as a starter - both in Carolina and New Orleans - came as an outside backer (mainly at SAM). But I'm not here to tell you Kirksey is great either. He hasn't really been good since he left Cleveland. By the way I also never insinuated that you said Marrone was a better coach than McDermott either. If I'd wanted to make that point I'd have said it. I didn't. I said the reason I disagreed with your assertions A and B was because McDermott is a LOT better coach than Marrone. I said nothing about your view on that point. I simply said that was the basis for my disagreement with your earlier assertions. Again, stick to what I say. It will help.

I have said multiple times since this thing broke that the story I heard was the Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs were not on speaking terms at the end of last season. Now I am not saying that is absolute gospel, but that was the story I heard and nothing that has happened since has led me to disbelieve it. Equally when Josh whatever it was it is done, and Stef has said the same, and they are on the same page and they looked on point in that final pre-season game.... I believe that too.

Yea Jonathan is an edge not a tackle. Forgot about him. Wonder how he gets used this year. A guy like him might be hurt by our heavy rotation because we rotate a whole second unit in which means they all need to be able to play as a base end. I think Jonathan really wants to be a pass rush specialist only in on 2nd/3rd and longs lined up as a wide 9 and let go hunt. If they want him to play the run well on 1st down he won't and he will get taken off the field. It's about usage.

Agree all though in fairness the two under contract are our starters and whether AJE had been good or bad we'd have been in this spot with him by the end of this year. Save I suppose for if he had been so good we had never needed to sign Von. The Boogie miss hurts. Him being so bad that we are giving him away for a dime two years into a cheap rookie deal definitely hurts the long term outlook. Benford (or less likely Elam) hitting big would be massive for them. As would a big Greg leap. Because they need to have one premium position beyond Josh manned by a young guy who is legit top 10 at his position. Dion, Tre, Stef have all been good to excellent Bills but they are all getting longer in the tooth. EDIT: just on the Josh point I reckon a restructure clears about half of that $33m deficit. There are some tougher calls coming on how you solve the other half. I think strong odds Poyer and Morse are gone.

There is zero doubt their 2021 and 2022 classes are better than ours. That isn't disputable.

If we lose I will want to be forensic on the reasons why. If we win I will want to see what the Jets actually look like before deciding how meaningful. But week 1 never decides a season unless you lose your QB for the year. So I'll be hoping that doesn't happen.

Well they keep kicking the can. This year shoulda been the first big cap year before the restructure. I imagine they restructure again next year.

You are missing something. Ha. There is another reason women who like women date guys..... and there is a reason guys who like guys date women. Edit: I am a guy. I am also bisexual.

I am not saying he wasn't in Mahomes's jock. But he was way more in Nick Bolton's while he proceeded to have a distinctly average game.

I have never said that either. Unless you stop putting words in my mouth I am stopping responding to you. You will get your Gilliam homework. But beyond that - it's done. Cos you are not interested in an honest conversation. What you are interested in is banging your drum and openly lying about what other have said to try and win arguments.

I do. I find him insanely irritating and vacuous.

I do but it manifests itself in quite different ways between Arsenal and the Bills. I often have night before dreams on the eve of a big game for both. But then on a game day with Arsenal I almost don't want the game to get here. I want to push it off into the future. With the Bills it is the opposite I want the game here asap. That is why I like the early Sunday games. Anything later I am like "get the game here now".

How about "Aaron if your conclusion was "sign for the Jets" you shoulda meditated harder" Guys who habitually date lesbians don't do it by accident. And I speak from experience.

It wasn't. Losing their QB, their WR1, their LT, their LG, their RG, their WR2, their FS, their MLB by week 6..... That was an indication of how good the Rams were.

Third time is a charm.

If he got the depth he was supposed to get it comes pretty much straight to him. Him being 2 yards behind his teammate is a pretty good sign he was in the wrong place. Which was him most of the night.