GunnerBill

We lost our 3rd to the Rams because Raheem Morris was hired as a Head Coach by the Falcons. FFS. Jax's 3rd is Jawann Taylor San Fran's 3rd is Demeco Ryans Philly's 3rd is Javon Hargrave Yep. That is a big mistake by Beane.

Nor do I but they have been more cautious on can kicking so far this year in their moves than I'd have been.

He does have a "chance" to earn more but its all theoretical. I think there is little to no chance he even musters 6 sacks IMO. The first two incentives are in play and possibly the final one if the team succeeds. He left money on the table. The Bills didn't have a lot of leverage so one assumes there was some willingness on Von's side. At the moment as we stand today he has left more money on the table with the pay cut ($8.8m) than he would have if the Bills had just cut him ($6.5m). If he gets at least 4 sacks he is basically even ($200k up), he needs at least 6 sacks to actually end up in profit on the deal as against being cut. And as you say he needs a lot more than that to be in profit as against the original contract. Personally I'd still have cut him. But I can live with him back on this deal and as a rotational piece.

It could. That it wasn't would indicate to me the Bills don't see him as a long term answer and so kicking the can too hard isn't their preference.

I am not against drafting a 3T. I just don't think you can spend #28 on one in a position where our best defensive player last year plays. You can take one later.

That is the modern NFL. DTs don't play 80/90% of the snaps anymore.

I don't necessarily think you should just have two day 3 rookie deals at safety. We tried that with Hamlin and Johnson two years ago and they were bad. But I think there'd have been a vet out there after the dust settled who'd have signed for last year's Taylor Rapp deal - 1 year; $1.7m. I don't like this deal. People keep saying Rapp "came on down the stretch". I don't know what they were seeing that I wasn't. I suspect it is just "he had that pick to seal the Miami game" rather than any substantial evaluation of the film. This is cheap as a deal if they want him to be a starter. But I really hope that isn't the plan so much as it is an "if all else fails".

I am saying Benford too. I don't think he will be CB2. He might start the season in that role but I expect him to be the consensus best corner on this team by mid season. It was closer than most imagine last year already. He just doesn't have the splashy ball production that Douglas had as a result of Zach Wilson.

Yea the oddity there is why open his practice window if they just intended to let him revert to IR at the end of it? To trigger his window there had to be at least some thought that they might activate him to the 53 at some point. Otherwise they could have just left him on IR all year, not triggered the window and it would not have led to him being poachable. My guess has always been he had a little niggling setback in his 3 week practice window so they decided to shut him down, but it is possible that they intended to activate him and then injuries at other positions meant they suddenly needed the roster spots elsewhere and therefore just let it lapse and revert to IR. I do think Shorter has a good shot to the 53. If he wins a gunner job he doesn't need to be more than a wildcard at WR he would be in.

I've set my position out on Trubisky above. If he is your starter he is one of the worst QBs in the league. But he has some skills that make him suited to being a serviceable backup. Kyle Allen has the worst pocket presence I have ever seen. He bails clean pockets at a ridiculous rate and has no ability to read a field at all. He is just a big guy with a reasonable arm. I said that before last season as well. We legit had one of the worst backup situations in football last year. And Blaine Gabbert is, and always has been, a tunrover machine. Even last year in KC he threw 35 passes and 3 interceptions. I am not here to tell you Mitch Trubisky is great. Backup Quarterbacks aren't great. But he is a lot better than Allen and Gabbert.

I'm pretty sure the latter. Beane talked about his transitions in the presser right after the pick. So they knew about the weaknesses in his game and must have known how that would make executing zone defense tougher. I think they just thought: good kid, NFL DNA, coachable, we will be able to teach him the techniques and if we can his physical gifts give him a huge ceiling.

If he is there at #28 he is the BPA by a distance IMO. You either pick him or trade back so that someone else can. You don't leave him on the board to reach for a prospect a tier lower just because you have a positional need. Actually they didn't just fail to dress him, they never activated him. His 3 week window opened in which you can practice but by the end of that window you have to be activated back to the 53 and they didn't. That can be one of two reasons 1. they didn't think he improved the roster; 2. He had an injury setback. He has a shot this year to win a job as a gunner. Neal gone, Lewis currently not on the roster too.... we have a major hole there.

Sherfield is a free agent. He costs nothing to cut.

I think he is a good player. I am not sure he fits what the Bills need is. He is somewhere between Shakir and Diggs in terms of skillset. I think his NFL future is primarily in the slot.

He is not crappy.

Yes. I don't think there is going to be the rush on receivers others seem to. I just don't see a lot of receiver needs in that bunch from 10 to 27 and I see a TON of OL and CB need. It is a really good OL class as well. I think 7 OTs could go in round one plus a couple of interior guys (Barton and Powers-Johnson).

I say it again: Kamren Curl. He would be awesome in this defense.

Again, true, but the Bills needed to make a decision now. They couldn't bet on being in a position to do a claw back later. Von had the leverage.

He only measures 5'11 at the Combine. The 6'1 was a pipe dream. Agree with the rest though. Worthy has always to me been a perfect pick for a team looking for a playmaker to compliment a true #1 outside receiver. And I do think the Cowboys likely would be interested.... although the risk there is he ends up competing for the same snaps as Lamb who isn't a true outside guy himself he is more a move receiver you use at all spots to generate matchups.

While this is possibly true it wasn't going to happen before they needed to make the decision (i.e. 10 days time).

The things I think he does well? I think he has good intermediate accuracy when you can keep him clean and give him crisp reads, I think he has an effective play-action fake and generally executes those concepts well. He can move and buy time outside the pocket and is a capable thrower on the run and he can make first downs with his legs as a scrambler (which is always one of the first things I look for in a backup QB because if you end up living and dying by the arm of your backup you are dead in the water whoever he is). Where I don't disagree with you is that he holds the ball forever - he definitely does. He can be easily confused if you can take his first read away, has a slightly funky release that takes longer than ideal, is inaccurate when the pocket gets messy and has always been susceptible to being baited into mistakes when teams simulate pressures and drop out into zone. All of which equates to a mid backup. Which is what I think he is. And that is still an upgrade on what we had last year. This move should absolutely not stop them trying to do that.

Who I think they'd take? Adonai Mitchell. I'd still take Legette over him personally.

Before the move his CAP hit in 2024 was $23.5m. $17.5m was guaranteed. This was made up of $6m of bonuses all of which have already been paid (2022 signing bonus and 2023 restructure bonus) which existed on the 2024 cap already and still do - so they are irrelevant for this purpose. And a $17.5m base salary of which $11m was fully guaranteed. What Von and the Bills have done affects only that base salary element. Pre pay cut $11m guaranteed $6.5m that was unguaranteed but due to guarantee on 18/03/24. Post pay cut $1.5m guaranteed $7m roster bonus (which would normally guarantee when the league year starts on the 13th and I can't see anything that disputes that) Therefore while at the point that Von did the deal he was only cutting his guarantees from $11m to essentially $8.5m, so a cut of $2.5m, the reality is if he was going to be on the team (and I say this as someone who was advocating a post 1 June cut) he was about to get an additional $6.5m guranteed. So in reality all of that cap saving ($9m by my calcs because I have rounded everything to the nearest 0.5 for ease of explanation but in reality $8.8m) is pay cut money that Von has left on the table. Two further points: 1. The Bills could still get further cap relief by converting the roster bonus into a restructure bonus which would spread the $7m across 4 years and save a futher $5m on this year's cap. 2. Next year's cap is totally unaffected UNTIL Von earns any of the incentive money back which would land on the 2025 cap. Spotrac now has the "earn back" elements listed as: 2024 Sack Incentives (non-cumulative) 2: $1M 4: $2.5M 6: $4M 8: $6M 10.5: $8.645M 15: $9.645M $1.5M for an AFC Championship Win + 30%+ snaps + 12 regular season snaps

Sammy over Evans was an example where the majority NFL consensus was wrong. It wasn't just the Bills. He was a lock to be the first receiver off the board. Had he been there at #7 I'm sure Tampa would have taken him. Madness. I didn't like OBJ much though I must confess. It was my first year really trying ro evaluate the draft and I had Brandin Cooks as my WR3 after Evans at 1 and Sammy at 2.

I didn't actually. I thought he was overdrafted. No way I'd have taken him 2nd overall. But I don't think he is as bad as you seem to. I've heard your opinion. I disagree with it.