GunnerBill

Well clearly nobody knows the formula as well as they thought but there are some things that are very simple about it: 1. You lose a minority coordinator to a HC position or senior personnel guy to a GM position and you are awarded two 3rd round comp picks in the subsequent two drafts. 2. The remaining picks are broadly issued by AAV contract value of free agents lost. The 49ers lost Jimmy G to a the richest FA contract given out last spring. The only things that are different from the projections from Over The Cap who explain the formula very clearly and do a great job with projections are Jimmy G and Tremaine being assigned 4th round value instead of 3rd round value which was projected. Everything else was exactly as those who understand the way that formula has been applied the past few years expected. So when people say "how the hell has San Francisco got all these picks?" The answer is they llst a minority coordinator to be a HC, they lost a starting QB in free agency and they lost a bunch of other qualifying role players.

Yea its a pass from me too.

No but they did lose a minority coordinator to a HC position and a starting Quarterback to free agency. That explains their 3rd and their 4th and shouldn't surprise anyone. Some of their later picks do seem to be from teams overpaying former 49ers in free agency at the mid range.

It's a really interesting point about the safety market and the relationship to the way teams are defending. I hadn't thought of it that way but it makes sense. Let's see what the market is like next week for the plethora of guys who have hit free agency. On wide receivers 6 is the record in round one. I think that is right about where it will come in this year, I could maybe see 7 but 6 feels like the spot. But 13 is the record for the first two rounds and I think that record definitely goes. It would not stun me if 15 of the first 64 picks are receivers. It is one of the stronger positions in the class and as you say teams increasingly need them. EDIT: just had a count up I currently have 10 WRs inside my top 50 grade wise and 13 in my top 64.

This is totally how I feel on Mitchell. I just don't know what the thing is that makes me go "wow you gotta have him." He is a solid prospect. He does a lot of stuff well. I just don't know where the special is beyond his hands are really good. I would be fine with him as the pick but it isn't one that would like really excite me.

Normally a miss that bad kills you. They deserve some credit for finding Purdy but there is huge luck in him turning out as he has. In the last three drafts worth of day 1 and 2 picks they have got a starting guard, a kicker and a backup pass rusher. That isn't great.

As I have said previously it depends how they really feel inside the building about Diggs. If they think they will get Diggs back to his best then I agree. If they genuinely think there are signs of decline I think they need to add a vet.

I get the thinking. I just think where we sit in the draft now guaranteeing getting two capable of having an impact is tough. I wouldn't overpay for a FA vet. But I'd be looking to add one if I could.

Having had a quick look at the DT class Neville Gallimore is interesting to me. He is more of an Ed Oliver backup option than a 1T to play alongside him. But I quite liked him coming out of Oklahoma. He has had a reasonably disappointing four years as a Cowboy, but there have been some flashes of his penetrative ability as a pass rusher. He is unlikely to get gobbled up early. You can probably sign him for a $1.5-2.5m type deal which wouldn't affect the comp formula. There might still be some untapped ability there.

This makes the most sense of any of the possibilities.

Agree. That is where I think the run comes. I am not sure there is going to be a huge run between the top 10 and Dallas at #24. In fact I can see only one going in that spell. But from Dallas at #24 to the middle of round two.... that could be a serious run.

First choices: 1. Kamren Curl 2. Darnell Mooney Backup otions: 1. Julian Blackmon 2. DJ Chark They will need a vet 1T as well but I haven't really looked in depth at that market.

My take on what Beane should now do is absolutely 100% stand pat at #28. Do not trade up. Take the best wide receiver available unless someone unexpected has fallen to there. Then at the end of the 2nd there is potentially room to move back. I have found in a lot of the sims I have done that is the spot where I end up feeling like there is much of a muchness talent wise. If they were to say slide back 10 spots with the Giants (I understand we have some connections there) in exchange for the Giants 4th rounder (might have to throw in one of our 6ths just to even the value out) then we could package that extra 4th with one our 5ths to get back into the bottom end of round 3. So we'd end up with: #28 Two 3rds (one early, one late) Two 4ths Two 5ths Two 6ths One 7th

Edmunds missed 2 games. But he did still play 92% of defensive snaps for the Bears so if that was what knocked him down that feels like an incredibly high threshold. And yea, if it was that Jimmy G (also a 4th) being a pick ahead after playing far less is odd.

Because it would appear based on the 9ers also having the Jimmy G pick that was equally predicted as a third knocked down (see they were affected too) that time missed has taken both Edmunds and Garropolo out of the 3rd round range they were in by contract value and reduced them to round 4. And it has happened within weeks of the season ending. This coming Sunday will be 4 weeks on from the Superbowl.

The difference is Tre just looked tentative like he was scared to commit. Von could barely move.

The news is public today but I wonder when teams were told and whether this played any part in Beane's decision to trade Bates for a 5th? It only saved $1.4m of cap and he spent more than that on Edwards (who he could have let walk and paid nothing). I wonder if he knew he didn't have a third and thought three 5ths and two 4ths would give him enough firepower to get back into the top 100. The two 4ths and the 5th from the Bears OR our first 4th and the three 5ths both get us back into the last half dozen picks or so of round 3.

I mean it is not a conspiracy it is the rules.

Yea looking at previous years and the fact the other pick that was bumped down from an expected 3rd was the Jimmy G pick it must be playing time related. Where picks originally slot is based on market value so fluctuates year to year (the percentile of the total market the deal falls into). I thought they set the numbers on that but then bounced people down based on hires. But last year doesn't look consistent with that. @HappyDays must be right it is about missed playing time.

No I wouldn't say that. I don't think it will make much difference how much incentive he does or doesn't have though. I think he is done.

I don't think he is as good as some Bills fans think he is. Correct. He was the Bills best corner down the stretch but not by a lot. Benford was pretty good he just didn't have the ball production.

3rd - Demeco Ryans 4th - Jimmy Garoppolo The some lower value guys

There is no set limit but there are parameters. I am pretty certain that has knocked us out.

We were the lowest 3rd and a minority coach got hired.

ERFA this was a no brainer.