GunnerBill

As I said above, only Mike Vrabel of the 32 Head Coaches that started this season does not have lineage that can be traced back to Walsh.

He already has a tree. Brian Daboll. Might not be a successful one but it is a branch of the McDermott tree. There is only one NFL coaching tree. It's Bill Walsh (and I think if you want to go back a level higher it is Paul Brown's tree). I did a thread on it in the summer. Every current NFL Head Coach except Mike Vrabel is a descendent of the Bill Walsh tree.

Dungy's win % at Tampa would have been good for 65th all time. That is sort of my point. There are cases, nobody disputes, where a team has changed Head Coach and got over the hump. But having a long ternured coach who is top 15 all time in win percentage but hasn't got over the hump that is pretty much unprecedented. There are arguments to fire McDermott. I am just not persuaded historical precedent is really one of them.

It is. None have had a first time Head Coach and QB groomed in house who together are top 10 all time win percentage. And where the coach alone is top 15. I am not saying that means you can't fire McDermott. But what I am saying is your historical comparisons are meaningless. To be clear I have never made the "who is better?" argument for not firing McDermott. That is a stupid argument. You fire your coach when you think they are not the guy and not depending on who is or isn't available. My point in this thread is the historical comparisons are not really indicative of anything.

That is fair but he wasn't a first time Head Coach. And that Broncos Superbowl team is the worst champion of my fandom. McDermott has hard AT LEAST three teams better than them.

How many of those fired a coach who at the time was top 15 all time win percentage? That is the point. There really is no equivalent for where the Bills are at.

He is who we thought he was. I hated the Josh Allen pick at the time and I am delighted to be wrong. I hated the Keon Coleman pick and am sad to be right.

There is nothing here that I disagree with. But even if they can get Hairston going and Poyer can provide some vet know how they still need Benford to round into form and Bishop to play better. The secondary has been trash so far.

Good. We have been short of them.

Draft strategy, yes he is - though they are very aligned. When Brandon Beane tells you he will always prioritise the defensive line - believe him. He'd be doing that whoever the Head Coach is. But draft selections? No. Beane runs the draft. He owns the picks.

I'm a similar age to you but I have to say while that is possible it is definitely a negative way of looking at things. I am not saying it WON'T turn out that way but it is by no means inevitable that it will. I just don't understand doom forecasting like that when it might never happen.

Strong disagree.

She was also the one who invited the McDermotts onto the yacht. He was her appointment even more so than Terry's. Maybe she would have been more ruthless too, but she was all in on this coach.

I think it was the contract rather than the compensation that put them off but I was on the trade for DK train too. He was the quickest available route to shoring up a major weakness. He is not an all around elite receiver. But the thing he is elite at is the EXACT thing this offense needs most. Separating outside and down the field.

All of that is true. But nobody has lost more playoff games to less talented teams while having an elite QB than Sean Payton. I do think he is a terrific Head Coach (though I don't think he is quite at the cutting edge offensively in the way he used to be) but if it is playoff success we lack I think an honest assessment of his resume suggests the Superbowl year was the outlier.

It is about opportunity cost. The teams who had one year of cost controlled QB lost less opportunity than the teams who had two years of cost controlled QB in the two years of the crunch. The point is not that it made it more difficult for the Bills than the teams who had already paid their Quarteback. Nor is it that this is the reason the Bills didn't win. The argument is the opportunity cost lost was greater for Buffalo, Baltimore, Arizona. Teams who both a) had decided their QB was the guy and b) had two years of cost control in 2021 and 2022 during the crunch.

That is not the argument. I am giving up. I have explained it to you three times and you have missed the point.

Being able to sing Von isn't really relevant. It wasn't that we couldn't sign anyone it is thar we couldn't go as all in as we might otherwise have. It affected the Chiefs, but they only had one year of cost control left. The teams I would say were most impacted were those wanting to go in all in both cap restricted years which were 2021 and 2022. And to repeat.... if anyone is saying it is the reason we didn't get over the hump that is a stretch too far. I don't think that is justified. Who knows if the Bills spend that money? Even more so if they spend it wisely.

I think you miss the point. We couldn't have a couple of those big contracts because when the cap should have increased $20m it retracted $20m. That is a $40m swing at exactly the point the Bills should have been wanting to go all in. And then I wasn't saying it stopped the Bills kicking the can. It just meant when they kicked the can (and they did onna fair few deals) they were doing that just to get under the cap instead of to invest I am not saying Beane didn't have some bad contracts then, but the point is quite simple.... the cap contraction hurt the most the teams primed to go all in at the point it happened. That was the Bills, Ravens and Cardinals and possibly one or two others.

Yea there was definitely a disproportianate impact on the teams who were at the Bills stage of their build. Years 4 and 5 of Josh's rookie deal (I know he had extended but it is still a moment of maximum flexibility and opportunity) were the cap reduction / restriction years. I wasn't just the Bills. The Ravens and the Cardinals were similarly affected. They were trying to go all in on their guys and finding they were having to make restricted choices. Can kicking that should have been to allow you one or two more decently sized free agent contracts became kicking the can and void years just to stay cap compliant. So yes, everyone was affected, but the Bills were definitely in a small group of the most affected. Would those 2 or 3 extra decent FA deals over that 2 year period have been enough to get us over the hump? I think that is a stretch too far. It is an unknown. But the Bills were definitely affected more than most because it restricted the ability to go all in precisely at the time they should have been going all in. None of that is to say there were not mistakes, bad picks, bad contracts etc. But covid restricted their room for error. And I don't think it is fair to say that is still affecting them today. I think they'd be where they are cap wise now regardless. But definitely 2021 and 2022 the timing was really unfortunate for Beane and these Bills.

No it is not as good as Kyle Shanahan. Or Andy Reid. Or Sean McVay. They are the elite of the elite and not available. As for other 2s and 3s... easier to get them open when teams are locked onto your #1. Who are teams doubling on the Bills? Nobody. That is the point. If you rank #4 and #5 receivers in the NFL the Bills are maybe closer to middle of the pack. But if you rank #1s.... there is a legitimate case they are 32nd. Teams bracket Shakir in zone in the middle of the field and man up outside on Keon and Palmer and say "go on then, get open" and they can't. Could one of the elite offensive minds in the league do it? Probably. Brady isn't that, at least yet, he is still a young guy. But he is a pretty good offensive coordinator. He has done a pretty good job here despite Brandon Beane tying his hands. He isn't faultless. Of course not. But the idea that he is realistically upgradeable.... I honestly don't know about that.

Yep, has happened to the Bills before. McDermott's first year or second year I think. It was McDermott but it was Shady carrying the ball so 2017 or 2018.... he was stopped right at the line, it was moved forward an inch but still short of the line.

Agree, I've made that point too.

Indeed the week before Devin Lloyd said he knew the Chiefs counter to a zero blitz so he just had to get in the right vicinity and the ball came right to him. If you mined defensive pressers after every game it is what they all say. Film study is real. Every team does it. The number of times a year one genuinely surprises another with a gameplan is very rare. Generally NFL football games come down to execution and talent.

The oline was not great, it had a below average day in pass pro but it wasn't horrendous. The pressure was largely blitz pressure and that's where your backs have to block, you have to have hots built into your scheme, those hots have to win early and Josh has to get the ball out to them fast. And it was no one element of that that failed consistently, but each element was a problem at least a couple of times and that led to what we saw.