GunnerBill

Meh. Cole is playing okay. He still makes too many mental mistakes and there is still a play a game where I feel like a really basic mental error by him is giving up a critical play. He has made some splash plays this year, that at least to some extent can offset the mistakes, and that is progress. There are steps of progression with him but he still has a way to go. Agreed Rapp has been awful. I actually don't think this year is the exception to the rule. This is kinda how he played in spot duty in 2023 and for the majority of his time with the Rams. Last year was the exception when he did, I concede, surpass my expectations. That is now looking like the anomaly.

The defense has always, by design, prioritised playing the pass vs the run, but it was particularly good at not giving up explosive runs very often and so teams get frustrated and don't stick with it. The reason for that I think we are now seeing is that Poyer and Hyde in their pomp came up and tackled and covered up a lot. Bishop and Rapp are way off that standard, Taron's play has declined too and so those 6 or 7 yard runs are 15 yard runs and the 15 yard runs are 40 yard runs. And to make matters worse the defense can't defend the pass either, the secondary has been rubbish in coverage and so has their MLB. The defense right now is a total mess.

I'm not here defending Keon. I am on record as thinking he was a bad pick. You can read my scouting reports on him from before the slow combine let alone before the Bills picked him. He was one of the first players I watched in January 2024 when I started my process for that draft and every game I put the film of on I ended up knocking his grade down even further. But if you think you could draft Ladd McConkey and use him primarily as an X, that's for the birds.

This is all fair, but I still say he simply wasn't talented enough to be worth the 33rd pick of a WR rich draft. So while he has to take some accountability too, I think it remains fair to question the selection and the process behind it.

Not "just" a slot guy. But he IS a slot guy. He is at 63% slot percentage again this year and his production is slanted towards the slot again as well. He isn't Khalil Shakir (who is JUST a slot guy) he can play snaps for you outside, but can't play as a down in and down out outside receiver. The Chargers tried to use him outside a little more earlier in the year and his production dipped.

Since his injury early last season he just hasn't been the same player. I agree, at his peak in terms of pure nickels (as opposed to the likes of McDuffie who are hybrid guys who play sometimes inside) he was as good as anybody in the league. But sadly I also agree that it is time to think about the future. I'd like to see them get Hancock some time there in certain looks but they have been practicing with him more at safety, so not sure it is gonna happen this year.

I do think them not seeking outside voices in the offensive and defensive coordinator roles since Daboll is a fair criticism, although I don't think it was about ego. It is genuinely because they believe continuity is best for the football team - a lot of NFL organisations, including some of the more successful ones are the same. Belichick never brought in outsiders, the Steelers very rarely have, the Packers are a promote from within team. McDermott and Beane are from that school of though I think. But I think particularly when they were hiring for DC in 2024 they should have cast the net wider. The only known of outside interview was Mike Caldwell I believe. They interviewed him, Babich and I think John Butler (who didn't get it and then left as DBs coach when he didn't get it). I think that was a chance to case the net a fair bit wider. There are plenty of experienced defensive minds who have enough similarity to McDermott's scheme who would have been worth bringing in for a look, even if they wanted to go with Babich - who remember was in the running for other DC jobs at the time. I think they ultimately promoted him to avoid losing him, but despite his stellar reputation as a position coach both with our safeties and then our linebackers he was looked out of his depth as a defensive coordinator. And that is on McDermott ultimately.

He didn't do those things particularly great in college though. That was part of the evaluation on Keon. He doesn't dominate enough at the catch point to compensate for the lack of separation.

See it is statements like this that frustrate me. Because last season that was absolutely not what the Bills did in Kansas City. They played heavy man coverage almost the entire first half, pressed at the line with their DBs and got shredded. It was actually only 2nd half when they went back to their fundamentals and played zone and kept the game in front of them that they managed to get a few stops. So was the coaching partly culpable for the defensive failures in that game? Yes. Was it because of too much "soft zone coverage" (a phrase posters here throw around so liberally as to actually pollute the meaning of it somewhat)? No. To be fair to Babich, and we must, probably his best gameplan as the Bills DC was the regular season win vs Kansas City last year when he completely surprised them with a heavy man coverage plan and Reid and Mahomes couldn't adjust. I understand the thinking in the playoffs being "we had some success doing that, we will stick with it" but having given Andy and Patrick 2 months to work out an answer it wasn't a surprise when they figured it out pretty quick. They ran those man beating mesh routes and got Hollywood Brown and Worthy matched on defenders who couldn't live with them. EDIT: I will try and find the numbers from that game but the Bills got killed in man and were pretty solid in zone. It isn't "the same thing over and over." They haven't gotten it done, that is the one consistent. And they have to find a way. But people talk as though the Bills are running the exact same defense now that they ran in the 2019 wildcard or the 2020 AFC Championship Game. And that isn't the case.

This is also my view with one caveat: we have downgraded at defensive coordinator too. I think Leslie Frazier was horribly underrated by most Bills fans. Blamed for things that were not his fault and given no credit because everyone just said "oh it is McDermott's defense." But neither Sean in his one year wearing two hats or Babich since then have called the defense anywhere near as well as Leslie and the changes they have tried to introduce, the schematic twists on the original recipe have by and large made it worse. So we have less talent and worse playcalling. Those two elements are much more to blame than the fundamentals of the scheme IMO.

Imagine how I feel?!?!

I dreamt last night that he had a game winning pick

The defense this year is bad. But over the years despite the fact that they have had some playoff failures in big spots they have been a good defense. I don't think the scheme is fundamentally bad. Although the way we are trying to play and call it right now is not conducive to being successful.

I suppose the thinking is bit of a backlog at the position but I suppose you are probably right. Golden hasn't taken off yet, Reed is out, Savion is a gimmick player, they have converted Bo Melton to corner and Wicks and Doubs are more complimentary than feature guys. I still like it as an idea though, definitely a call worth making.

If Watson could be had cheap I'd kick the tires. I wanted to draft him and while he hasn't delivered on his potential so far and has had issues staying healthy his skillset is the one we lack.

Yea, I consider Payton more of a Parcells guy too, even though he is a crossover. It is a fair point about the Superbowls, but Reid and McVay have definitely tilted that balance back a bit since the last Belichick one.

Correct, but Belichick isn't from the Walsh tree either. Belichick was from the Parcells tree and there was a point 15 or so years ago where that tree and the Walsh tree were equally as influential in the NFL Head Coaching ranks. And while there are crossover guys - Sean Payton, Brian Daboll, Dan Campbell etc - who feature on both trees the Parcells tree is now a poor second to the Walsh tree in terms of influence over NFL Head Coaches in 2025. You can trace a dozen or so back to Parcells in some form. But 31/32 to Walsh.

As I said above, only Mike Vrabel of the 32 Head Coaches that started this season does not have lineage that can be traced back to Walsh.

He already has a tree. Brian Daboll. Might not be a successful one but it is a branch of the McDermott tree. There is only one NFL coaching tree. It's Bill Walsh (and I think if you want to go back a level higher it is Paul Brown's tree). I did a thread on it in the summer. Every current NFL Head Coach except Mike Vrabel is a descendent of the Bill Walsh tree.

Dungy's win % at Tampa would have been good for 65th all time. That is sort of my point. There are cases, nobody disputes, where a team has changed Head Coach and got over the hump. But having a long ternured coach who is top 15 all time in win percentage but hasn't got over the hump that is pretty much unprecedented. There are arguments to fire McDermott. I am just not persuaded historical precedent is really one of them.

It is. None have had a first time Head Coach and QB groomed in house who together are top 10 all time win percentage. And where the coach alone is top 15. I am not saying that means you can't fire McDermott. But what I am saying is your historical comparisons are meaningless. To be clear I have never made the "who is better?" argument for not firing McDermott. That is a stupid argument. You fire your coach when you think they are not the guy and not depending on who is or isn't available. My point in this thread is the historical comparisons are not really indicative of anything.

That is fair but he wasn't a first time Head Coach. And that Broncos Superbowl team is the worst champion of my fandom. McDermott has hard AT LEAST three teams better than them.

How many of those fired a coach who at the time was top 15 all time win percentage? That is the point. There really is no equivalent for where the Bills are at.

He is who we thought he was. I hated the Josh Allen pick at the time and I am delighted to be wrong. I hated the Keon Coleman pick and am sad to be right.

There is nothing here that I disagree with. But even if they can get Hairston going and Poyer can provide some vet know how they still need Benford to round into form and Bishop to play better. The secondary has been trash so far.