GunnerBill

Meh. We are better than Indy and the Rams by some way IMO. The other three are tough but even if the Bills go 2-3 in those games it is likely fine. I feel much better about their chances of getting to 12 post schedule release than I did before it. I still veer towards 11-6 as their record but there is a clear route now to 12 for me. Win 7 of the first 9 (doable), then 2-3 in that run (doable) and then run the table Pats, Jets, Pats to finish. 12 wins.

Spector makes it. I think he is much closer to a lock than fans think. Core STer on a unit that just lost leaders and actually played pretty well when he had to go in at LBer.

I actually think for a tricky slate on paper that sets up quite well for us. Weeks 2, 3 and 4 in prime time is a pain for my annual leave calendar. But really glad no Christmas game.

I understand why you are pulling for Hamler. Less so for Cephus I think he sucks. I am not particularly pulling for any of them. I doubt any of them end up as guys I think we MUST keep come September. To be honest I'd keep Tylan Grable if he ends up OL10 over any of those guys as WR6 for the reasons I've set out.... you have to play the claim game.

I don't dispute that I just think the vast majority of that depth was gone before round 5. Thrash and Washington were the two guys that went later. On Hamler I liked him coming out a fair bit, whereas I thought Isabella for example was way overdrafted. But at this point they are in the same category. Guys who have just spent a full year on a practice squad without being elevated (Isabella may have been once) or claimed by anyone else. The medical probably does factor in as well for Hamler but like you said there is a batch of new guys that come in every single year and last year's treasure becomes this year's trash quite quickly. I think either of them would have to rip it up in pre-season to not make it through to the PS.

I don't think it was an amazing day 3 WR class to be honest it was very top heavy, but take the point it was an overall stronger draft and Shorter would not have been a lock to get drafted. This isn't really about Shorter for me, I have been pretty consistent since they drafted him that the chances of someone with that profile making it in the NFL are slim. Size speed guys who underachieve in college almost never break out in the league. The point is that those last few roster spots are about two things: 1. Special teams value; and 2. Likelihood to get claimed. I think they feel VERY comfortable that both Isabella and Hamler would not be claimed. Maybe if one tears up pre-season that changes. But right now, they would both make it through to a PS. Hamler was released after injury and medical conditions with the Broncos but he then spent the entire season on the practice squad of the Colts and didn't elevate him once despite a far from stacked receiver room that included Juwann Winfree and DJ Montgomery. There is no reason to put either of those guys on the roster unless they totally dominate pre-season. They will get to your practice squad. Use the 53 protected spots you have on someone who might not.

And that may or may not prove true on Shorter. All I am saying is we know it is true on Hamler and Isabella so they will not keep those guys over someone they think is a risk to get claimed. In my head if you are looking at receivers that gets you to Shorter and possibly Claypool as the players for the final spot. If you are looking wider they could keep 5 receivers, keep a developmental tackle they like and have 2 or 3 of the vets on the PS.

No but I think he is more likely to be poached that a Hamler or a Isabella who the league has kind of taken its view on. That is my point. Equally it isn't just a WR for WR equation. Tylan Grable might be our 10th OL, but he is more likely to get poached than Hamler or Isabella. If they think none of the candidates for WR6 are waiver risks then they could keep a 5 and keep an extra lineman for example.

I don't think Hollins is a total lock, but I do think he is likely to make it. I certainly wouldn't be betting a single pound against it.

I think that is exactly the point on Hamler and Isabella. They are not gonna get picked up if they are cut from the 53. So they are easy cuts. If the Bills think Justin Shorter might then he makes the 6 on the roster.

Really good special teams player and has a role on offense which is often about allowing the Bills to dictate match ups. They particularly like 21 personnel against the Chiefs actually - he averages 19% of the offensive snaps in the last 6 games vs KC. The Bills like that look 'cos it tends to keep Spags in base and stops him doing some of the really exotic stuff and they have always fancied themselves making plays on the Chiefs linebackers in coverage.

I think Williams is a real candidate but how does he get on the field is the question? Unless Milano is struggling to get back, which would be nothing other than bad news.

MVS makes it. Hollins probably does. And 1 other.

I have New England in that group as well but I agree on the rest.

This is a good point. His decisions on re-signing his own have been good and generally at sensible values too. Taron Johnson in that list too.

I think more likely they are hoping everyone is a bit better..... supporting cast, coordinator and Quarterback. Not blaming Josh for our offensive struggles last year but it was his worst season since his breakout IMO both in terms of mechanics and decision making. They need him to be better this year because I think it is likely the supporting cast is at best a push.

He wasn't Sauce's guy on that play. They are in zone, Sauce is really responsible for the outside but reads where Josh is going and tries to dive across and make a play and just misses. That wasn't Shakir running a route vs Sauce and getting the better of him. Also, that was a route ran from the slot where Shakir gets a totally free release. The #26 looks as though he might go and engage but lets Shakir go and plays his responsibility to the flat. The reasons he can't play outside regularly are the same as they've ever been for me. Short arms, struggles getting off press and will get bodied out by bugger corners at the catch point. Shakir is a good player. He is a slot receiver.

He may well have a higher ceiling than those guys but it is playing inside as a slot.

Yea I don't think MVS is great or anything - he is a #3 receiver - but he is a speedy, vertical, outside receiver and we lack that skillset. If it is a one year deal and they attack WR again next offseason I can live with that.

This is the kind of WR move I can see. Not trading for a big name.

Well he was the de-facto GM in 2017 so clearly that year he was the decision maker when they took Tre White. But beyond that he isn't. And hasn't been. He has input but Brandon Beane is the GM. Brandon Beane runs personnel. Brandon Beane's is the opinion that counts. Of course he seeks input from his coaches. But McDermott does not run our drafts or dictate who gets picked.

I think he is slightly underrated. Always has been. I remember the heat I took on here after their rookie seasons for saying Goff's tape was better than Wentz's and that the results being skewed the other way was about circumstance not their abilities. He isn't the 2nd best QB in the league, obviously. But the QB market is the QB market. Either you have a guy and therefore when he comes due your are paying him top 3 or 4 money in AAV or you don't. They are the only twp options as Minnesota's failed attempt to keep Cousins this offseason showed. He is about to turn 36 coming off a major injury and the Vikings offered him what they thought that was worth and were blown out of the water.

Yep giving up a day 3 pick for one of those types I don't rule out. Just not sure if they move the dial particularly for the team. Meyers would be my favourite from that list.

I don't think he is the contested catch dominator that either of those two were and he doesn't have the close area quick feet of Hopkins either. Agree though he is a difficult pro comp. I actually think his best route to success in the NFL is big slot and again I said that on here before the Matt Harmons and Daniel Jeremiah's of the world went there. I there is some late career Larry Fitz there. But I do mean late career Larry Fitz. I agree ball in hand he is a weapon. No doubt. It is how you get him the ball in hand and even at Florida State a lot of the plays where they did that to best effect was out of the slot with free releases. When he gets to dictate the route his physicality pops on the screen. When he doesn't and it is contested the entire way he is definitely less impressive.

I agree he can do most of what Gabe can do. I don't think he quite has the body control in tight areas of Gabe at this point but I am pretty sure he can develop that with NFL coaching and he isn't "bad" at that so much as Gabe was good there. As for your areas of improvement the only two I give you without contest are athleticism and hands. I think Coleman is better in both areas. That was my view before his slow run (indeed there is an exchange between @HappyDays and I on here the Friday of the Combine week before the WRs worked out where I said that). I still say that, 40 time be damned. I think he is also more versatile. You might call that route tree - I'm not sure I would but I take the point to an extent. Beyond that.... I give Gabe the advantage as a blocker (though Coleman isn't bad), I think awareness, catch radius and route running are ties at best for Coleman. That is where we differ on our evaluation of who Keon is. And it isn't that I hate him. I had him a full round higher than I had Gabe at draft time. But I think there are limitations to his game that even though I see the potential I think will continue to hamper him. It is what I think caps his ceiling somewhat. He is a very good #2 for me. That doesn't make him a bad pick or a bad prospect. It is just where I think ultimately he ends up as an NFL player. That for sure is worthy of significant credit. The most important move you make as a GM is the shots you do (and don't) take at QBs.