GunnerBill

Totally insane. He is toast.

He's totally washed.

I had a first on Orlando Brown and never waivered because of the underwear olympics. Dude could play on tape and that is what mattered.

Disagree. I think it is one of the better positions early in the draft. Alt, Fashanu, Fautanu, Morgan, Fuaga, Mims, Guyton and Latham all have a legit chance to be round 1 picks.

Have they not done Oliver already? Thought they had. But yes that remains an option.

Nah he is $14.1m this year. We could extend him and lower the hit.... but you can only do that once he is on your roster.... and to get him on your roster you need the space to take on the contract in the first place.

They have a bit more room to kick Allen's deal I think. But they have pulled almost every other lever they had to pull.

He is on a 5th year option. It pays $14m this year. We have around $3m in space right now. We get another $10m due in June when Tre comes off the books but we need that money to pay our draft picks.

They can't trade for him. Because they can't absorb the 5th year option cap hit and they can't restructure him before he is on the roster. And they can't get him on the roster and stay under the cap.

While Cosell is right I think a lot of that is the proliferation of the Shanahan style offense which is a very horizontal offense. I don't love Josh Allen's horizontal game. The Bills have to be a bit more vertical because it is what Josh does best. He throws the 15-25 yard downfield strike better than anyone else in the league. That necessitates at least one receiver who is a true outside option who can win vertically and get off press.

That isn't the contract you are trading for though. That is the point. You can't adjust the contract before he is on your team and he can't be on your team unless you can absorb the contract without being over the cap. The ONLY way of doing it is getting him to sign a new deal with the 49ers, and trusting them and the Bills that they will still trade him and the Bills will immediately re-do that deal again. And that kind of thing doesn't happen.

It can't go down by tomorrow. Aiyuk is on a 5th year option at $14m. That means to trade for him we'd need to be able to absorb that contract (even if we then immediately extend him and lower the hit) and we can't. We can't extend him until he is on our roster. He can't be on our roster unless we can absorb the current contract. Could he do a 1 year extension with SF, to lower his hit to nothing this year on the basis he has a gentleman's agreement that the Bills would immediately re-do that deal again? Possible, but unlikely.

I mean the chances of any team winning a superbowl before the season starts are vanishingly small.... the favourites tend to work out at less that 20% chance by most predictive models.... that the loss of any player other than a top 5 QB is bound to be less than a percentage point of difference, right?

See I'm not sure it will be a buyers market, because apart from a QB (Penix) I, like you, think there is a tier of talent from about 25 to about 40 that doesn't have a drop off. So sliding back a few spots will be attractive to teams in that range.... but it won't be that attractive to teams in that early 2nd range.

I got told at the end of the 2022 season that the Diggs - Allen relationship had broken down and they were barely on speaking terms. I don't think that was really the reason for the downturn in performance in late 2023 though, because the previous 12 months they had managed to co-exist successfully on the field. I think it is a combination of it all. The fact he was no longer best buds with his QB and had the explosive temper moments were sufferable while he was producing at the level he was up to halfway through 2023. Once that production disappeared it was no longer worth the wedge.

Only two for me: 1. Fred Jackson - the player he was for us, plus the way it was handled. The time was right, but it still stung because it was bungled. 2. Jason Peters - Ralf. Was. Cheap.

Penix is possible.... but if you just want the 5th year option on a QB why the Bills at #28? Why not the Lions at #29, the Ravens at #30, the 49ers at #31 or the Chiefs at #32? Probably the Chief would want to stay (and I think in all likelihood move UP) but I think moving back makes sense for the others too. I just don't think it is a given that there are teams battling to have #28.

My wouldn't involve one at #28 comment was in reference to your Packers analogy. They don't pick offensive players in round 1 unless they are Quarterbacks.

He doesn't play the way he tests. There is just no denying it. If you are a team drafting him you better be sure you fully understand the reasons why.

Fair. I just am not as optimistic as some that there will be a cluster of teams desperate to come up to #28. But maybe there will....

Yea it just wouldn't involve one at #28.

Picking a WR round 1 would not be a Packers move. 1st round picks are for QBs and defenders in Cheese Land.

Also the problem with Sammy wasn't the trade. It was the player. If they had 10 years of 1,000 yard seasons from Mike Evans from that trade up I think people would look on it very differently. And this is not wise after the event. 2014 was my first year trying to grade prospects... I graded 56 players. I had Mike Evans as the 2nd best player in the draft. Clowney, Evans, Matthews was my top 3. The problem wasn't the trade. It was Sammy Watkins.

Very small chance. But I thought that anyway. 2024 is a mini-reset, still be competitive still make the playoffs but little chance of a deep run year to me. It was with Diggs. I think that even more now, but it isn't a big dial mover.

I could absolutely get on board with this approach. Thomas a low price deal that kicks half the number to next year and is incentive laden makes sense to me and Harrisonnis such a high floor he will be good right away. Not totally sure if your offer does it (given you likely have Minnesota offering two 2024 firsts to get there for a QB).... but if it did I'd do it. Question is if #4/#5 are not in play what would you give to get to #6 if it means Nabers / Odunze? What about to #8/#9 if one of the three is still there? Or for you @Kirby Jackson is it Harrison or take your chances at #28 / smaller non future 1st trade up into early 20s?