GunnerBill

I like McCormick too. The Jones I was looking at was Elijah from BC but I'm not totally sold on him as a Bills fit.

I think the feet stopping thing - and you are right that is a tendency of his - is also linked to the lack of precision in his route running. To me on longer developing plays he often finishes his route and then sort of stops to adjust to where the route should have finished rather than where it did.

On the Diggs stuff my question for Houston is still "do they have a #1?" And it is the question we were asking here as recently as last week. If Diggs was just banged up / disenchanted / not featured so much in Joe B's offense and can round back to form then they absolutely do. If he is slightly on the decline I still think they are in a bit of a no-mans land where they have two very good #2s in Collins and Diggs and they have Tank who I think is a stud but isn't an archetypal #1. There is no doubt they have a nice balance though - Collins as the vertical guy, Diggs as the route runner and Tank as a speedster and YAC guy who can play from the slot. It is one of the better WR groups in the league if they can all stay healthy. And on asking for videos I think I'll stick with the cutups and streaming services. I imagine the shipping costs to the UK would make that an expensive do! And my draft fandom is separate to my Bills fandom. Sure it's fun to think about who the Bills might take, but team building strategy is the thing that makes the NFL so fascinating to me. So trying to find out how and what teams are thinking through the way they draft is really interesting.

Like the player but if they draft yet another running back in the first three rounds I might send Beane a sweary letter.

I think if Thomas is there at #28 you HAVE to take him. Trading back would not be for me in that scenario.... but if we pretend for a moment you'd never told us he was there..... then the trades back from #28 and #60 and then your first 5 player selections would be very much a win for me. I'm more mixed on your later round guys but they are shots in the dark to an extent anyway.

If we drafted Jacksaint in round 4 I'd start a fire Beane thread instantly.

It was EXACTLY what we were discussing. You seem to recall me arguing McKenzie was a stud or something which was certainly never my position. It was that he was best placed to start in 2022 and would win the competition and start at slot (my original position was actually you'd see something of a jobshare with Crowder due to their differing skillsets but that McKenzie would take the lion share of the snaps because he separated better and Crowder would likely get hurt - that took about 3 games to come to pass). You were arguing not only that McKenzie shouldn't start, but that he wouldn't. He did. And we agreed at the time that career year was not a particularly high bar and that is why I set 500 yards as a target projection. He fell 77 yards short of that. That was the only extent within that conversation to which I was wrong.

And he was a starter and had a career year.

Correction: when healthy he WAS dominant. But he lost his starting job with Dallas in 2021 and even before the unfortunate injury with Cincy in 2022 he had been anything but dominant. There was a stretch there where he was one of the best right tackles in football... but the last two years we saw him on the field he wasn't close to that. He is only 30. The talk seems to be that the Bills would be willing to try him at guard, maybe that revitalises him somewhat, but if they have signed him to play OT it will not work out well.

Sure, to do it to like NFL team level it takes at least that time in all likelihood double. My rule is nobody goes on my draft board without evaluating AT LEAST three full games of theirs. That takes somewhere between an hour and a half and three hours per play depending on whether one of the cutup databases has done some of the work for you by cutting out the plays they weren't on the field (i.e. when the other side of the ball was out there) or you literally have to scroll through an entire game film finding the relevant plays on offense or defense etc. It's why even though I really like the highlight videos and clips I have seen on the Yale tackle this year he won't be on my board. I just don't have enough material to make any kind of educated analysis on him and therefore I won't take a view. I have estimated before that I spend about 300 hours watching draft prospects between 1 Jan and draft night. It works out at about 18 hours a week or thereabouts. It's a geeky hobby I confess but I enjoy it.

And I'm pretty much ready to go I think Virg depending on what @julian does.

Hang on, I was wrong about McKenzie to the tune of about 80 yards. My argument was not "he is a stud" or "the Bills long term answer at slot" my argument on McKenzie in the summer of 2022 was simply he was the best option on the roster to start in 2022 and he would be the starting slot. Both proven correct. And that he would post career high numbers, also correct. And that he would have 500 yards receiving. Not correct, he had 423. So if you want to argue I was 77 yards off on my projection, fine. But on everything else what I said is exactly what happened. As for the tired "Dorsey didn't get Shakir on the field as a rookie" - that's not true. He played 30% of the offensive snaps. Not bad for a 5th round rookie. He inly got 20 targets because he was not getting open and the reason he was not getting open was he didn't run proper routes at Boise, came from a gimmicky scheme and the learning curve to playing in a pro-style offense was significant. To be clear I have never said Khalil Shakir is Cole Beasley mark II. He is a different player than Beas. I said that already. It is like Stefon Diggs and Mike Evans are both outside receivers but are nothing alike in terms of skillset. But the numbers and the tape are pretty clear is significantly less effective when split wide. The route running is still improving and I don't discount the chance it improves further. But the physical limitations that hurt him on the outside are ones he can't change.

#FireBeane

I like Nabers, Bishop and Davis. Don't like much else (though haven't watched Sundell). And did Joe genuinely draft a LS? 😂

Hang on, what I actually said was they had drafted Shakir to be their long term slot but he wouldn't start in 2022 until at best late in the year because he came from a gimmicky offense where he didn't really run proper routes at Boise and as such McKenzie was the best and most likely starting option they had for that year. Which far from being wrong is EXACTLY what happened. And I did say he'd do more than he did before. I think I said 500 yards, he had 400 and odd, so I was I dunno 80 yards or so high on my projection for him. Shakir is a slot only guy. He can take a snaps outside for you, he can get you out of a game there if you need him to, but if you are going to put him out there as one of your primary boundary players for a game it isn't going to go well. He doesn't have the physical skillset or route running ability to do it. And the tape when he did do it last year is very uninspiring. I like Khalil Shakir a lot. But he is a slot receiver.

I'm sorry I disagree on this. The reason he is slot only is because he is the bottom one percentile all time for NFL receivers in terms of arm length. It means he struggles to get off press and it means he struggles when fighting with DBs downfield. He also frankly just doesn't run routes well enough for the outside where you really need to be at your landmarks because your QB rarely has the luxury of throwing to you as a stopped target outside. It has been proven on the field too. His effectiveness drops significantly vs man and when line up outside. He is a slot receiver who you use against zone defenses between the hashes and trust his quick feet and elusiveness to get you yards after the catch. He didn't though.

Okay. I'm off to google "Rome Odunze's package." Will report back.

Yea I'm not down on Shakir at all. I had a late 3rd on him coming out and was happy with the pick. I think he is a good complimentary receiver and that is great value from a 5th rounder. Even if we just got two more seasons like 2023 in terms of production and then he walked in FA that would be a decent return, but I think the ceiling can be higher than that... without him being quite in 1,000 yard guy territory.

How does he get off press or deal with physical cover corners though? He has the speed you need to go deep, he doesn't have any of the other attributes you need.

Yep. If he had cleared his man coverage a split second sooner the Bills have a touchdown at the end against KC. But he got caught up just long enough by the DB in coverage and Josh had to hold the ball one tick too long and Jones got there. I'm not sure I totally agree on the difference between he and Beas. Beas wasn't great against man either. He was an elite zone beater not because of his suddenness but because of his natural feel for the soft spots in zone defences. In was instinctive. I think ultimately it is why he was an UDFA yet went on to have some success, because you can't measure the thing Cole Beasley had that was special. It was feel. I think Shakir is more sudden but he doesn't run routes as well and doesn't have the same feel. Even last season there were multiple times when he ran into coverage where you really want your slot receiver to just stop and sit. That was a major problem his rookie year and it is why despite being on the field on a third of the Bills offensive snaps in 2022 he totalled just 20 targets. He did improve his route running a bit in year 2, and he is definitely a threat with the ball in his hands when actually the player he reminds me of isn't a receiver at all - it is Austin Ekeler - with that low centre of gravity and ability to twist and turn out of tackles and bounce out of contact. Could he be a 1,000 yard receiver? I'm not sure for two reasons: 1. I still think the Bills will want to have a lot of 12 personnel packages where Kincaid essentially becomes their slot receiver. I don't think they are going to have that as the single base formation or anything like that, but they are going to want to use it some. In those packages Shakir either comes off the field or splits wide where he just isn't close to as effective for obvious reasons - alligator arms, route running, size. 2. I think Josh Allen is a downfield thrower. I don't know that he is every going to be Tom Brady who is happy to move down the field with running backs, tight ends and slot receivers. Partly because he doesn't throw those little option routes, screens and wheels with enough precision for YAC and partly because I think he can lose patience when you try and force him into that kind of game plan. So I'm not sure a shifty slot receiver like Shakir will get the level of targets he needs for a 1,000 yard season. He could probably do it once somewhere down the line.... Beas nearly did it for us in 2020. Lance Moore who was mentioned as another comparison somewhere in this thread did it once with Drew as well. But those true pure slot guys are rarely 1,000 yard guys on a regular basis. Edelman did it three times in six years with Brady but again I just don't think the Bills offense can or should be a replica of that New England offense. My realistic projection for Shakir in 2024 is something like, 80 targets, 60 catches, 820 yards, 4 TDs.

I'd definitely be willing to throw a 6th or 7th at Marshall.

I'd be shocked if either McConkey or Legette is off the board before #28. The Bills feel like the start of the range for both players IMO. I think Ladd then has some other possible fits late in the first - San Fran (if Aiyuk is to be moved) and KC.... possibly even Baltimore (if they have finally decided Bateman isn't it). I think if the Bills don't take Legette he is a 2nd rounder.... but there are half a dozen potential landing spots early in the 2nd - Carolina, Washington, New England, Chargers (if they got OL in round 1), even possibly Tennessee. I think Ladd is a possible fit in some of those spots too. Then #44 to #51 is where I expect a mammoth receiver run: #44 Raiders - have Adams at 31 on a huge deal with an out after this year, Meyers and then literally nothing else. #45 Saints - need a running mate for Olave (think they'd want a bigger guy so Legette, Coleman etc are in play) #46 Colts - less likely as they have a decent top 3 - Pittman, Pierce, Downs.... but there is still room to upgrade #47 Giants - might take one early but what if they go QB in round 1? They'd then be almost certain to go WR their next pick #48 Jax - again might go that route round 1 but if they don't I'd expect them to here #49 Bengals - lost Boyd and Higgins uncertainty #50 Eagles - not an urgent need by AJ Brown drama this year feels a lot like the Diggs drama last year and 2024 might be a last ride #51 Steelers - traded Johnson away means it is slim pickings opposite Pickens. In those eight picks I think you could easily see four or five receivers go off the board. It is why I think early 40s is the last possible target zone for the Bills if their plan really is to trade back from #28, or trade up to double dip.

I don't think he ever tried in Buffalo. He was half assing it the moment he arrived. To be honest I always thought he wae overrated riding the coat tails of some talented defenses in Baltimore and New York. I hated the hire. When I speak to my ex we still laugh about my reaction the day he was hired. I was close to jump off a bridge territory. But we didn't even get the best Rex. We got the pay cheque collector.

The 2015 roster was by a distance the best Bills roster of the drought. And played a soft as ***** schedule. And Rex went 8-8 after being 6-8 and out of the running with two weeks to go. He ***** sucked.

I don't think we'd have had winning seasons in 2017 or 2019 and he'd have been fired. There is zero chance he'd still be Head Coach. He was ***** terrible. And mine. And by a long, long, long, long way. The guy is a total fraud.