GunnerBill

13 seconds is on coaching. I have never defended that. On the second bolded - it most definitely did. Their blitz percentage dropped significantly and their efficiency improved overnight. Despite their injuries.

I think they are obviously better at WR unless Rice misses half the season or something but until we hear anything from the league on possible discipline I am going to act like he is there. His development plus Hollywood Brown compared to the start of last season when MVS was arguably their best vet receiver. And that is without even trying to predict the impact Worthy could have. OT is a legit concern. I have never been a Jawaan Taylor guy right back to him being drafted by the Jags and it looks right now like Wanya Morris or the rookie out of BYU will start at left tackle. I still wouldn't be surprised if they add a ring chasing vet. But basically their tackles were bad last year and it wasn't enough of a problem to stop them because they have a magician at Quarterback. The one area they have "got worse" is corner losing Sneed. But they still have McDuffie, I imagine he will move back outside and I like the two young corners in the system from the 2022 draft. Jaylen Watson had an exceptional game in the Eagles Superbowl as a 7th round rookie (he outplayed McDuffie that day actually) and Joshua Williams, who took a little longer to come around, was balling by the end of last season. Sure, neither of them are Sneed day 1, but they are two talented young corners who have already started and performed in big spots for the Chiefs. I think they are better than they have been the last two years UNLESS Kelce has dropped off either through age or "other interests". If he is still Travis Kelce this team will be better. They were 11-6 last year. They will be at least 2 wins better in 2024. And then as for the playoffs.... well unless Tom Brady is on the other side Mahomes is 13-1.

And I was VERY critical of him in that period last year in terms of his defensive playcalling. The loss to Mac Jones is one of the worst defensive gameplans the Bills have tried since the days of Gailey and Wannstedt. Though it wasn't "playing not to lose" that was the problem in those games it was actually the ridiculous blitzing. Once someone stole the blitzes page out of McDermott's playbook last year and he got back to calling the type of defense the Bills have largely had success running our season turned around.

The defense has unquestionably played poorly in the playoff losses to the Chiefs and Bengals. But I don't think it has primarily been because of scheme or coaching. That isn't to say there isn't an element there that ultimately falls to coaching. But they have been shorn of key players in each of the playoff losses since the AFCCG of 2020. And there have been other contributory factors too (the Bengals game I put a total line through not a single Bill turned up ready to play that day, whether through locker room disputes or the mental exhaustion of the Hamlin situation or whatever). The prevent defense thing gets thrown around but on tape it isn't really true. They play zone, sure. They are a zone team.

And Zay did adjust. And he has had himself a reasonable career. That wasn't the question though. What we had seen in 2017 was pretty clear what his ceiling was - if he could sort his issues out he was going to be a solid enough possession receiver and chain mover. Even if he had fully sorted the hands that was the type of player he was and is (2018 was actually his 2nd best career year by yards and a career year by touchdowns). So it was obvious by year 2 he wasn't going to be a #1 receiver. When it is pretty apparent going into a season that a 2nd year player of that type is your best receiver (and Zay was our best receiver in 2018) you are in trouble. Our receiver room going into 2024 is certainly less than stellar. But going into 2018 it was a disaster.

Yes. Because of dumb ***** the players did. That game was a total coaching mismatch. It should have been a blowout win.

I think he outcoached McDaniel by a long way in 2022. But for turnovers by offense the Bills win that going away. But sure he hasn't outcoached his opposite number in the playoffs a ton of times. But equally I don't think a ton of the losses have been coaching failure either.

Yes. Players make great plays on bad calls too. And they make terrible plays on good calls. You have to watch the tape and try and separate one from the other. That is my entire point on this. Coaching is about more than end result. Sometimes as a coach (and I have been paid to do it in another sport) you walk off a field and think I got everything wrong today and got the right result. And sometimes you walk off a field and go I got everything right and lost. That is the beauty of sport. The best coach doesn't always win. The best team doesn't always win. There are sufficient variables to make it unpredictable. That is why people love it.

Yes. Of course he has to take responsibility. But 31 coaches lose every year. You have to work out how much that ultimately rests on coaching in each case.

If the offense stalls because the scheme fails, or because the play calling sucks, sure. It was individual player error.

I was wrong on Josh Allen. That humility has long since been demonstrated. But I called Zay and Kelvin before 2018 and on that I was right. So if you want me to take the lumps for the misses (and I agree, I should) you have to also credit the hits. My last few first round mocks have been pretty darn good as well (27, 27, 28 of the 32 first rounders the last 3 years). And I don't know who has told you I do 300+ prospects. My number is usually around half that. I get to 140-150 give or take.

Sure. Everything "stops with the Head Coach." But McDermott didn't cause that defeat. Nor did Leslie Frazier. Or the defense. Their offense made a couple of crazy plays (they still had prime Watson and Hopkins, they were good) and our offense puked on itself.

Yes. I do. The Houston metdown was mainly on the offense throwing up all over itself. Houston made a couple of crazy 1 in a 100 plays on offense. The defense did not blow that game.

Yes.

I knew Zay wasn't it and Benjamin was a bust by 2018.

I have watched lots of all of them. They are not.

To be clear I don't think anyone is making the bolded assumption. This assumption isn't about whether the Bills would be better with Diggs or Samuel in 2024. That is pretty besides the point now, Diggs is not here. It is about whether going into the this season the Bills are better or worse than they have been going into the last two seasons at receiver. To me they are definitely better in the slot, with Shakir's development and Samuel's ability to play there as required too. But there are weaker outside. Even if Samuel has a career year, expecting him to be Stefon Diggs level of his first 3 and a half years with the Bills - a top 5 receiver in football - is totally unrealistic. Time for people to remind themselves of the offense Brandon Beane believed was NFL calibre in 2018. I am honest with myself. And that is simply not true for me.

And Samuel could have a 1,000 yard season... a career year type season... like John Brown did here (I know he already had one 1k year in his past) but that wouldn't make him a #1 outside receiver talent just like it didn't make John Brown one. It would say more about the fact he is playing with Josh Allen and the lack of alternatives in the Bills' passing attack.

It's both. Do I think Samuel is capable of having a career year? Yes. Do I think he is going to be a game breaking outside receiver in the way Stef Diggs was for 3 and a half years here? No.

His separation rates have consistently been top 6 year on year. It dropped last year but even then only very marginally. So no, it is not completely subjective. It is backed by the numbers. The difference between Samuel and Diggs is talent. Samuel is a good NFL receiver. Prime Stefon Diggs was elite.

Trust me I have seen him play plenty. He is not as talented as Stefon Diggs. If wide receiver was just measurables it would be an easy game. Stef was the best route runner in the NFL. That might not show up on a combine drill but it is the single most important talent for receivers in football. And I called Coleman a big slot on here way earlier in the draft season than Matt Harmon. So I'm not someone who parrots opinions I am someone who watches the film and a lot of it. I think Samuel is good. I haven't called him just a gadget guy or even just a slot guy. He can play outside. He can have 1,000 yards in this offense, like John Brown did in 2019, but John Brown wasn't a game breaking outside receiver either. That is the thing we do not have on this roster.

I'm sorry he is just not. Diggs went in the 5th because he was injured in college and stayed home to go to Maryland. He had other offers. Stef stood out as soon as he walked on an NFL field. I like Curtis Samuel. But he is not close to as talented as Stefon Diggs. Oh Curtis Samuel can probably do that. Sure. But the problem at the end of last season was we lack guys who could truly win 1v1 outside. Once Stef was doing that less it became MUCH easier to gameplan to stop the Bills. I agree he is talented. But he isn't a game breaking outside receiver. He is a nice inside / outside move receiver. Would it shock me if he put up 1,000 yards? No. Would it shock me if he was consistently beating #1 outside corners 1v1? Yes.

Because he isn't as talented as Stef Diggs.

Chiefs. I think they will be better than the past two seasons.

Agree with you totally on Stevie. Contrary to the OP I don't think he is a fit for Josh.