GunnerBill

The reason I compared with Demitroff is to make the point that you don't need to have a history of outlandish moves to make a move like this. Indeed Demitroff's first round trade up track record was otherwise pretty similar to Beane's. It would, I agree, be an outlier move. And there may be good reasons it won't happen (quite apart from finding the right situation in terms of trade back partner is tricky) but it won't be "because Beane has never done it before." These moves are outliers that you can't predict based on previous behaviour.

No.

What if he has a crash in the 4th quarter of a critical game though and suddenly you can't use your top weapon on a potential game winning drive? It's that more than anything else that would make me fidgety about drafting someone with type 1 diabetes in the first round. Yes, you can have the best dieticians, you can come up with plans, you can try and manage but in a sport where you then have to go 3 and a half hours on a Sunday and monitor and control constantly in that time.... I dunno. Would concern me. Wouldn't take him off the board but would likely make me drop him a bit if I was a GM.

I don't see a move to #4 because I think New England is picking a QB and then Minnesota is coming up to #4 and picking a QB (and the Cardinals will get their "three 1s" but they will give back their 2025 #2). The issue with #5 is while I think LA would go back, will they go that far? I'm not persuaded. Having said that, on your first point.... of course Beane's history isn't massive trade ups. No GM has that history. This is a once in a decade type move. Thomas Demitroff was GM of the Falcons for 12 years. The Juilo Jones trade wasn't a sign of a consistent pattern. It was a one off move to get a guy they thought was a star. In fact in his 12 years as GM he traded up 3 times in the first. The other two were moving up 4 or 5 spots within the 20s to get their guy..... that remind you of anyone? I am sceptical it will happen because I'm not sure I see a deal that makes sense. The mock that has it here makes it make sense my not having the Patriots take a QB and therefore Minnesota go to #3. Just not sure I see that myself. But I am not dismissing it because "Beane has never done it before." Of course he hasn't. It is a rare type of a move.

Murphy isn't bigger though. He is shorter, lighter and has the same length arms as Newton (both just under 33"). They are slightly different shapes, Newton's weight is distributed a bit more evenly whereas Murphy has a thick lower half and I know some teams care about that but they are both technically undersized.... although actually you look at the 3Ts getting drafted early in NFL drafts these days.... I mean they are all kinda in this size range.

I don't think they are going to have that much wiggle room cap wise in 2025. They have more than this year, sure, but by the time they have paid this rookie class they will be right on the cap number for next year (if it is around Spotrac's $273-275m estimate.... it may be a little higher than that). You can manufacture them 35-40m in space pretty easily, so they can go and do some business but it is 2026 before I think they become serious FA buyers again.

I will say this: the two round mock I did way back in Jan pre-FA and the two exercises we have just done here in the @Virgil mocks has convinced me that I don't want to pick at #60. I think it is a really bad spot for value for a team like Buffalo. I'm thinking more you go up a few spots with it or back a few spots with it into the early 3rd and try and pick up another 4th that allows you to then come up into the late 3rd too by bundling picks.... #28, #69, #94 something like that.... BUT giving away #60 is not a deal breaker for me in making a trade into the top 6 for Harrison, Nabers, Odunze. Okay Harrison, a 4th, two 5ths, two 6ths and a 7th probably means you are not filling many holes in this draft but you'd end up in 2025 with a 2nd, a 3rd, two 4ths and two 6ths plus likely a couple of comp picks. And you'd have an elite difference maker. That is what we have been short of more than anything else IMO.

I have been accused in previous draft cycles of being a closet Clemson fan due to my tendency to be higher on their prospects than the consensus. Whether it was Christian Wilkins being a top 10 grade, or my willingness to overlook Isaiah Simmons total lack of a clear position, or my willingness to overlook Andrew Booth's health questions or being high on Trenton Simpson. Well here you go folks, here is the Clemson prospect I don't like. Orhorhoro is not my cup of tea at all. People will know I like good hand usage on a pass rusher, edge or interior, and his are all over the place. And secondly I have never seen a high round DL prospect who gets spun around by OLs so much. He looks like he is doing a spinning top impression half the time and ends up facing the wrong way. If he got to the Bills first 4th round pick would I think the athletic traits were worth a punt? Sure. But spending #60 on this guy would be an error.

I agree as a combo that is nice. Don't think either are a true WR1 though.

Not a complete bust but definitely a disappointing first rounder for the Bears. His best football has all been since leaving there.

Except Thomas and Metcalf run the same 3 routes. Having them both together would be a limited offense IMO.

The injury was part of it. But that pro day yesterday should arrest the slide somewhat.

I love Newton I just don't know how the Bills extract maximum value from him and Ed Oliver. Can this team afford to spend a 1st roind pick on a guy who plays the same position as their best defensive player? I don't know. To be honest I don't think Newton will be there anyway. So it is all moot.

The best defensive player in the draft.

The take I heard when Schoen was here from people inside and close to it was always he is the best pure evaluator on the staff but he doesn't have Beane's strategic brain. And as we know there is more to being a good GM than just being able to spot a good player.

Yea he makes sense as a day 3 pick.

Honestly not a guy I've really got into the tape on. I'll watch the vid you linked, thanks. But my impression of him from watching Michigan on TV was again he is a two point stance rusher who you couldn't really use in anything other than pure pass rush situations and I don't know if he is sufficiently skilled as a rusher to be someone you want to take a starter off the field for in those packages. EDIT: That is a nice set of highlights though. If I get time I'll dive in a bit deeper. Like his run reads.

Yea he is a situational pass rusher early rather than a 3 down player. But he does have some tools as you say. He explodes off the snap.

Yea having more picks does not equal winning the draft. You still have to evaluate. It isn't pot luck.

I'm with you. If Latu lasted to #28 then, as you know, I'd probably take him. And while it wouldn't my pick I'd understand the reasoning behind Chop at #28 too. But beyond that the three second round grades I have - Trice, Braswell and Isaac - are all more 3-4 rushers for me. I might consider Trice if he is sticking out at #60 because I think he could be developed into a 4-3 end (he'd need to be sticking out) but I'm not sure he is a day 1 starter in this scheme. In round 3 I like Noah Elliss more than most but again not as a Bills fit I think he is a 3-4 outside backer who does his best work from a two point stance. After those guys, honestly, I just don't like the class. I have a 5th round grade on Kneeland. I don't like him at all. I think he has very little pass rush upside. I think Austin Booker late 3rd / early 4th is someone who'd be of interest and Javon Solomon 4th/5th round too. Then you get into Jalyx Hunt, Brennan Jackson and Myles Cole who I'm fine to throw 5th, 6th, 7th rounders at but are not guys that you draft expecting to get into your rotation much in 2024. We have a need at EDGE but you don't make Marshawn Kneeland the answer to that need just by overdrafting him on day 2. You may as well give Shaq Lawson another 1 year vet minimum deal for the value he'd bring.

I have a 3rd on him too. A pretty high 3rd but a 3rd all the same.

I think overall the draft is far from an exact science. There are teams that do better and teams that do worse, but nobody bats close to 100. I think in general you should want to apply the more picks strategy. But that doesn't equate to never trade up and always try and trade down. It's just a general principle for how to maximise your chances. My theory on drafting is do not fixate on any one player or position. Do not reach through draft tiers. Let the board make your decisions for you. That generally favours the Ravens style "let the draft come to you" type approach.

That is definitely true. But there are still stronger day 3 groups and and weaker ones... and this is a weaker one overall.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State - New York Giants Rome Odunze, Washington - Chicago Bears Ladd McConkey, Georgia - Arizona Cardinals Brian Thomas Jr., LSU - Dallas Cowboys Xavier Worthy Texas- Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills pick: Troy Franklin

Yea. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they take a QB or even move to #4 to do so. I was just meaning even if you are not going to there is reason for the Giants to make everyone think they are going to.