GunnerBill

To add yet more context to this.... here is a combined big board by my grading of the WR drafts 2019-2024 =1. Marvin Harrison Jnr (2024) =1. Ja'Marr Chase (2021) =3. Jerry Jeudy (2020) =3. Malik Nabers (2024) 5. CeeDee Lamb (2020) 6. Rome Odunze (2024) =7. Chris Olave (2022) =7. Jaylen Waddle (2021) 9. DeVonte Smith (2021) =10. Henry Ruggs (2020) =10. Jameson Williams (2022) Yea I was too high on Burks (although I don't think he was at all helped by the team that drafted him and the offense they put him in, he was never a 'conventional' high end receiver he needed to be used creatively and got put into one of the least creative passing offenses in the entire league). I stand my ground 100% on London though. He is a low end #1. Doesn't separate enough to be an elite receiver.

So I just thought I'd add to the debate about the relative strength of this WR class compared to the last five (as per @transplantbillsfan's original comparison). I have my boards to go back to so I know what I thought at the time and not with the benefit of hindsight and here it is: 2019: 0 first round grades 1 borderline 1st/2nd grade (AJ Brown) 4 second round grades 4 third round grades Total day 1 & 2 grades: 9 2020: 3 first round grades (Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs) 7 second round grades 8 third round grades Total day 1 & 2 grades: 18 2021: 3 first round grades (Chase, Waddle, Smith) 5 second round grades 4 third round grades Total day 1 & 2 grades: 12 2022: 4 first round grades (Olave, Williams, Wilson, Burks) 1 borderline 1st/2nd grade (London) 7 second round grades 5 third round grades Total day 1 & 2 grades: 17 2023: 0 first round grades 2 borderline 1st/2nd grades (Addison, JSN) 4 second round grades 7 third round grades Total day 1 & 2 grades: 13 And for comparison based on my current board.... 2024: 4 first round grades (Harrison, Nabers, Odunze, Legette) 1 borderline 1st/2nd grade (Thomas) 5 second round grades 9 third round grades Total day 1 & 2 grades: 19 Conclusion: Only 2020 is really comparable to me of the last five classes in terms of both high end talent and depth through the first two days. I also think both classes saw something of a drop off after that. The only two guys who made a significant impact taken after round 3 in 2020 were Gabe Davis (who was a third round grade on my board) and Darnell Mooney (who I hadn't graded). I think it is similar with this class. Sometimes you get a day 3 with lots of interesting toolsy underclassmen who haven't quite put it together or you get really productive guys who are smaller or play for small schools. I don't see much of that in this group. So I think where that leaves you is if any class is going to have a Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman out of round 2 it is this one. But they were the first two picks in round 2. I think that (first 4-5 picks of round 2) is the limit of where the Bills can reasonably expect to be and get a potential difference maker in year 1. If they wait to #60 they could get a guy who contributes this year and maybe even develops further over the next 4 years but their chances at that spot of getting a rookie difference maker.... that feels like you are in total pot luck territory.

I'll have my stomach pumped.

Slots get YAC opportunities. And water is wet.

If McDermott is gone Beane is gone too.

I'd say Nabers 1. Ladd 2. I think Franklin is similar frame wise but not so much play style. I don't think Ladd has quite the variety that Addison has. But I think he is the closest after Nabers who is Addison on speed.

I agree we don't need to trade back but there is nothing wrong with the value of that trade. It is what the value looks like.

If they are doing that and actively tanking I kind of commend them. I'm not sure that is who Sean Peyton is.

But then what do they do at QB? That's the question for me. I actually think the Vikings could if they really had to roll Darnold out. The Raiders could role out Minshew. These guys have started in the NFL. But who are the Broncos rolling out? There is nobody on that roster capable of starting and not being by far and away the worst QB in the league. They have no second round pick either. So if they don't take one at #12 they have to hope one gets to round 3. I can imagine a world where they trade back in round one.... but even then the Raiders are right behind them and the risk is four are already gone.... if you only like one of the other two are you going to risk letting the Raiders get him? They are in the worst spot in the NFL right now IMO. And I think they are almost forced to reach on a QB at #12. They have been horribly mismanaged.

I've been trying to do the QBs properly this week it is literally the last group I've done this year and I am really close to bumping Penix up to a 1st round grade. Basically my first two entries in the cons column are "injury red flags" and "lefty". Once you get past that..... Seriously there are one or two other concerns but at the same time I think this kid can darn well play Quarterback. I'd have no problem taking him in round 1 if I was a QB needy GM. None whatsoever.

Teams get obsessed with physical profiles and lose sight of skillsets. But equally amazing is there were four DCs on that Bears staff and a defensive Head Coach - John Fox, Fangio, Staley, Desai and Donatell. It is not as though they are a bunch of total amteurs!

That is a good one too. Interesting I think the 3 best examples - Hughes, Floyd and Reddick - are rushers who were miscast in the wrong scheme. I wonder if that makes edge rusher a more likely position for that kind of turnaround?

I think Miami are completely committed to the idea that they will win with offense. McDaniel was basically slobbering over Worthy at the Texas pro day.

I don't think Polk will go round 1. I do think Worthy will somewhere. I still have spidey senses about Miami. I also still think Daniels will be #2.

Yes. I think the Ravens, Lions, 49ers and KC are all possible OL teams. Especially it has started to thin out there....

But Odunze isn't just a regular #1 prospect. Passing a player like that up for some picks is a mistake IMO.

I think Polk is a safe floor guy. He is going to play in this league and be a starting receiver. The upside is what I question a tad. He reminds me a bit of Alec Pierce who went to the Colts a couple of years ago in the second. Probably a better route runner. Doesn't quite have Pierce's size. He is a bit lacking after the catch for my money and while I don't think his top speed is terrible he doesn't get to it quickly. I think if you are double dipping and going like a Worthy for example then Polk in the 2nd... I like what you have as a compliment of skills there. If we only took one and it was Polk in the second I think you have an upgrade on Gabe Davis. But you don't have a true #1 IMO.

Thing is if Odunze is there I don't think the Bears trade back. If he is gone I think they will. I think #8 is the target spot for Odunze.

I have done my true sleepers already but for the specific purposes of this thread I think Zinter absolutely meets the criteria. I am still frustrated we didn't throw a day 3 pick at Andrew Vorhees last year. I know it was a bad injury but I thought he was the best guard in the draft prior to that.

Yep. I have long been there. Matt Harmon thinks the same too.

That is true. I definitely think Franklin is in play. Although other visits can leak late. The visit with Elam is always my go-to which literally leaked out 24 hours before the draft. Not sure how many of our 30 are now accounted for?

I know Colin Cowherd isn't popular around here, but he has a phrase he uses a lot "nothing's everything but everything's something." And I think that is basically how I feel here. It isn't a "no-go" for Mitchell in round one on that basis but it does become part of a team's consideration. It goes on the list of cons whether people like that or not.

Thomas and Baker would be a nice duo. I like Bishop as well although a safety at #60 isn't exciting and I don't know that I think he is a totally natural fit for us. I wonder if they drafted him if they'd use him a lot as the dime the way they used Po down the stretch last year. I think his ability to come up and cover a guy 1 on 1 is one of the things that stands out on his tape.

The reason I compared with Demitroff is to make the point that you don't need to have a history of outlandish moves to make a move like this. Indeed Demitroff's first round trade up track record was otherwise pretty similar to Beane's. It would, I agree, be an outlier move. And there may be good reasons it won't happen (quite apart from finding the right situation in terms of trade back partner is tricky) but it won't be "because Beane has never done it before." These moves are outliers that you can't predict based on previous behaviour.