GunnerBill

The Dolphins are overrated again. They lost 2/3s of their starting defense, the DC who was supposed to improve them and pieces on their offensive line. They are not a top 10 team. They will be at best at a 1 and done playoff team again. Other than that I don't find anyone ranked above the Bills to be ridiculous. I think the Eagles are too high but both they and the Bills are "good" teams whose window is less open than in previous seasons IMO. I'd have them ranked 8 and 9 wouldn't quibble which way round you put them.

AJE will out sack Von this year. I am absolutely certain of that. What have they seen of Von yet? Basically nothing. A few days of stretching. They are gambling on Von being back. I understand why. They don't have free agency dollars and beyond the top 3 (or 4 depending how you feel about Chop) its a weak draft at that spot. Von rebounding is their best hope. But its a wing and a prayer IMO.

I don't think they have a shot to get a starting edge this year in the draft unless one of the top 3 and maybe Chop falls in round 1. My three round 2 grades are all 3-4 OLBs. I wouldn't force it. If I have to live with a timeshare of a washed Von and AJE for a year then so be it. You can't make someone the answer just by overdrafting them.

It is a long developed history going back to Carolina though that they like long arms. Again Beane's drafting preferences are very Carolina. 34 inch plus arms are definitely a preferred trait for their edge guys. Not saying they just pick guys on arm length but it IS a singificant factor in the edge guys they like IMO. I really hope they don't draft Kneeland. I didn't like the Basham pick and I'd like this even less. But I do think they likely think he is an option at #60.

I don't see any pass rush ability at all. I have no idea how he rushes the passer at the next level. He isn't a bull rusher. He doesn't have elite get off. He doesn't have elite bend. He doesn't have great hand usage. If he hits I'll hold my hands up but he is like a worse version of Boogie Basham (who DJ had #54 in 2021) IMO.

Yea I think Von is done.

Yea Will McClay there is excellent. He is the GM in all but name

Yep. Me too. Only without the athletic ceiling or decent level college production.

Cardinals Colts Seahawks

He's had a great process and it is fair the 3rd down stat. I think he reminds me a bit of Joe Flacco in that I think strong running game and then ask him to make the odd throw off of play action or third and medium and he can have some success. I don't think he has Flacco's arm and it is hard to know whether he has the ability Joe had to hit to the big play when it was needed because he was just not asked to. Maybe he can. But it isn't there on tape.

It is probably Tepper telling him - he is a clown that fella. I don't think Legette was necessarily angling for anything there although saying they are taking him at 33 wasn't the smartest move.

Nope I don't. I am still finishing him up (want to try and post my QB thread tonight all being well) but I have a 3rd round grade. But there are so many team with NOTHING at Quarterback. Of the six teams most commonly mocked to take a guy: Chicago, Washington, New England, Minnesota, Denver, Vegas..... the two best Quarterbacks currently on those rosters are Brissett and Minshew. They are the only two teams of those six (Pats and Raiders) who you can even make the argument they have a bridge guy. So teams are going to reach. Because they have zero alternative.

I hate it. I have a 5th round grade on Kneeland. He sucks.

I love stump the truck. There might only be about a dozen people still watching the draft by the dog days of round 7..... but I love it. You stumped me anyway. Not a guy I'd ever heard of.

The two issues I see with the Giants trade up option is: 1. What do the Cardinals get in return? You are asking them to give up MJH. If they are getting two or even three ones from Minnesota (even sending a day 2 pick back) that and the chance to still get back up with Atlanta for the 3rd of these receivers given that Joe Alt is a lock to go either at #5 or #7 is attractive. If it is give up MJH for Nabers or Odunze and say swap a third for a second round pick (I'd imagine something like Cards get #6 and #47 and NYG get #4 and #90) is that tempting enough? Depends what difference in grades they have between Harrison and the other two I suppose. 2. If you are trading back with the Giants you might wanna be absolutely convinced they are not going to just take the receiver you would have taken there. I dunno. It would be risky for me. Again it depends do AZ like Harrison a lot more? What about the other two, do they have those close together? But I have heard the Giants are in the QB market if the right guy is there from the very start of the process so I totally buy their desire to go up.

100% front office. The NFL is ultimately about building the right team within the confines of the salary cap / FA etc. I think the different team building strategies are now more fascinating than the different offensive and defensive strategies where to be honest innovation is harder to see and every scheme has been done before.

Can we call one of thimose underneath pop passes?

He feels like the kind of guy you could throw out there in NFL Network's Stump The Truck segment. Haha.

The Cards moved down then up again last year. I think they may well try the same.

I think Morgan to the Ravens is a very astute pick. If he is on the board he is their guy. Heard that from 1 person directly and 1 podcast. But Mims is either gone at #20 to the Steelers or #24 to Dallas. They both LOVE him. I think no way he makes it down that far.

I do think Chicago passing on Nabers is more believable than them passing on Odunze, just based on who they already have. But I don't see the Colts as a trade up team personally. EDIT: the other thing I always say at this time of year and will remind myself before I do my final mock on Thursday morning is "believe what you hear in Jan and Feb, discount what you here in March and April."

They ran shorter routes with Brady. But the Dorsey offense his final 6 games was absolutely awful. Whether it was all his fault is another question. But they were struggling to move the ball and awful at scoring.

I reckon if I throw 40 law of averages I complete 1. And that would be your lot.

I don't agree that it means nothing. It is manageable but it is also a risk factor that you have to build into the overall evaluation.

You are of course 100% spot on about Samuel. Good player. Can be dynamic, can make plays. Not the guy you want to be relying on to be a starting outside receiver for you. On your following point about guys who do their best work within 10 yards from the line of scrimmage it is why I am much less excited than you on the idea of McConkey and Pearsall (either in the 2nd after you've drafted a vertical receiver - fine) because I think you are getting the same skillset again. Excluding the top 3 here are the average depth per target (in yards) of the guys that have been talked about for us at #28: Worthy - 10.3 Pearsall - 11.0 McConkey - 12.2 Franklin - 12.8 Legette - 13.8 Thomas - 13.9 Mitchell - 16.0 I know some of that is a product of circumstance, the type of college offense they were in and usage. Maybe one of the lower depth per target guys is and can be used totally differently in the pros. It is possible. But it is projection. I am at the point I think where #28 (or a small trade up) for me is one of those three highest depth per target guys. They are the ones who have proven they can be true vertical receivers. They are the ones capable of giving the Bills the dimension they are missing. Any of those others risk more of the same IMO. If it isn't Thomas, Legette, Mitchell then it is take a guy another premium position or trade back a few spots and take whichever of the others is left.