GunnerBill

I don't know what you lot can't be happy with one bloody time!

I think it's 8 tomorrow......

With the 20th pick in the 2024 TSW Mock Draft version 3.0, brought to you in association with @Virgil Sports and Media Enterprises, the Arizona Cardinals select: Quinyon Mitchell, Cornerback, Toledo I didn't necessarily plan to trade up here but watching the board as all those offensive tackles, quarterbacks, wide receivers and defensive linemen went it became very apparent to me that the value on the board was at corner - where it just so happens the Cardinals have a huge hole. They signed Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency who is just about serviceable to play one side, but Starling Thomas V, a former UDFA out of UAB is the presumptive starter at the other spot. They need an upgrade. Mitchell is the top corner on my board and has the potential to develop into an elite corner in the NFL with his size, speed and competitiveness. Trading up 7 spots for him while swapping one of my three thirds for a fourth was a no-brainer. I think what is most interesting about this scenario is @Alphadawg7 did the Cardinals in v2.0, traded back at both picks and ended up with Odunze and Wiggins. I've stood pat at #4 and traded up and snagged Harrison and Mitchell. Both scenarios I think would make Arizona better immediately. Proof that there are multiple ways to play it and you have to let the way the board falls drive your decision making over and above getting fixated on players or positions. The aforementioned @Alphadawg7 and the Miami Dolphins are now on the clock.

My kitchen is being done up at the moment so I'll be sitting in a dusty lounge full of stuff that should normally be in a kitchen trying to make enough coffee to stay awake, eating food that doesn't require cooking and playing a full part in the draft thread on here while marking off my board as we go. I am more of a two laptops guy than a two tv screens guy.

Yea OL more generally is even more a lock. I suppose some of the guys could be classified in other spots.... but my guess is: Alt, Fashanu, Fuaga, Latham, Mims, Guyton, Morgan all go and are called tackles. Then I think Fautanu will be called a tackle, he will definitely go. And possibly Barton who might go and might be called a tackle.

It's not true. It was 2003, you are right about that, but it is a common misconception that it was Sehorn. It was someone who played for either the Benglas or the Browns. Forget which.

More OTs will go than WRs on Thursday. That is an absolute lock IMO.

The non-WR version.

He's already had that experience. The puma loved it.

I volunteer to inject Worthy with sperm. Oh... puma sperm you say? Meh.

If they trade up to #19 only Thomas makes sense to me. Because the rest are likely available at #28 or with a very small trade up.

When you have Josh Allen at Quarterback I think one may well lead to the other. I'm not saying the Bills have to trade into the top 10. I was responding to the idea that a first round receiver pick wouldn't necessarily be the #1. I think it is very likely someone they take at #28 would be the #1 receiver in 2024. It is almost a guarantee someone they traded into the top 10 for would be the #1 on this team in 2024.

Indeed even the much lamented Sammy Watkins came in and WAS our number 1 immediately. That that is a trade that was seen to have failed for obvious reasons. But in 2014 he stepped onto the field as our #1 in week 1 and had 900+ yards. He had 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns his second year. The reasons it fell apart after that are well documented and the Bills definitely drafted the wrong guy from that receiver class. But even then that guy gave their passing game an immediate and significant boost.

He is not the best route runner in the draft. If the argument was he is the best route runner outside the top 3.... I could buy that. Of that next group: Thomas, Legette, Mitchell, McConkey and Worthy - which it does seem is increasingly seen as the consensus next cluster - Ladd is the best route runner in terms of precision route running.

Yea but that is just another of your strange foibles.

There are two first team all pros - Lamb and Jefferson. But Aiyuk has been a second team all pro as has Calvin Ridley. Then you have Cooks and Moore who have been #1s at points of their careers - although probably lower end #1s. That is 6 good players. All of those at their best would be by far and away the best receiver on the Bills in 2024.

I agree, he is. Which is why I wouldn't go for him as a backup. But if you are the Broncos in a take a punt on anything mode I see why the possibility that it was a Jets problem is worth a 7th round pick.

I don't think the Steers W-L thing is the slam dunk you think it is. Pittsburgh wins games based on its defense. In the past two seasons, Trubisky's era there, they have won 19 games. In only 3 of those have they given up 20 points or more.... the starters in those three games were one each for Trubisky, Pickett and Rudolph. I wouldn't want either as my starter. But I'd take Trubisky over Wilson as my backup 100 times out of 100. Now if I was Denver and I didn't have a QB I'd take Wilson because who knows... maybe there is something untapped that freed from the Jets can come out. We definitely know at this stage who Trubisky is. But his floor is comfortably higher than Wilson's.

The problem getting into the top 3 is those 3 teams all want Quarterbacks. Both Washington and New England have taken calls and politely declined from what I hear. Maybe if the wrong one is left at #3 New England's stance on that changes on draft night. They might only like 1 guy but while there is a chance he is there they don't want to move. But realistically I think #4 is where Minnesota will end up getting. That wouldn't need a receiver thrown in and I think they'd be loathed to do it. If they end up needing to help out a rookie having Jefferson and Addison to use is no bad start.

I agree with most of this though I'm not sure I buy that the Vikings are going to suck quite that bad. That pick is more likely 40-45 than 35-40 I reckon. 35 would mean they have the third worst record in the league I just don't see that. They still have a very good oline, two excellent receivers, a good tight end.... okay QB is a complete unknown but I'd be surprised if they were total suckitude with their talent.

Other than he likes Pearsall way more than I do - Joe basically sees the round 1 and 2 receivers the same as me. If you pretend Pearsall doesn't exist his top 8 is the same as mine.

Okay so roughly it is: Top 10 grade: Elite Quarterback prospect able to start in the league and play at a high level almost immediately. (numerically that is a 7.6 or above to me in my grading structure) Mid 1st round grade: Able to be a solid NFL starter almost immediately, has potential to trend towards a high level QB in time. (numerically a 7.3-7.5) Late 1st: Able to be a solid starter in the NFL immediately and capable of being a two contract starter (a "franchise" Quarterback) even if not looking at that high level ceiling. (numerically a 7.0-7.2) High 2nd: Potential to become a solid two contract starter in the NFL but might need some work to get there. (6.6-6.8) Late 2nd: Project who can't start early but has traits to make an NFL starter. (6.0-6.4) Early 3rd: Can be an game manager. Capable of starting while on a rookie contract. Unlikely to be a guy any team commits to long term. (5.6-5.8) Late 3rd: Bridge Quarterback who could start for multiple teams but never be the guy. (5.0-5.4) 4th round: High level backup potential 5th round: Potential to be a bounce around backup 6th/7th round: Some traits to work with as a developmental prospect. Again everyone has their own way. My grading is based on learning how others do it and taking from it but it also isn't supposed to be a copy of anyone else's. It is what makes sense to me and how I try and keep myself consistent year to year. Of course you do tweak your thinking as you go. And I think I feel differently about some elements than I did 11 years ago when I started. As for how they stack up... I don't have a slam dunk in this class. I think it is a class with guys with some talent but as I said at the start.... the more I watched - especially Williams, Maye and Daniels - the more I saw of their warts. If you are one of those top 3 teams with desperate needs at Quarterback I think you gotta take a shot here. But you gotta do so knowing there is considerable risk and you better have a really solid plan for each of them as to how younare going to use them early and try and develop them. With each if they end up in a bad fit system wise it could be a disaster. Interesting. I saw more Mahomes than Allen. Just in the way he creates. But I agree the question with him is whether he can perform consistently from the pocket - get through his progressions and get the ball out.

Dugger hasn't played one posititon in the league either. He has also been a slot, safety, LB hybrid. I take the point on Mathieu he has just been a safety in the NFL. Also while in 2023 DeJean was primarily an outside corner for Iowa he played a lot of slot and a lot of box safety in 2022. This is not as simple a case as you make it sound of a guy that has been stuck out on the boundary for 3 years in college suddenly wanting to play all over in the pros.

He is definitely a project. I mentioned two things in his mechanics - I think the wind up is going to be cat nip to NFL rushers and I think he drops his arm when feeling pressure. So I don't think Simms is talking nonsense. The reason he is still a first rounder to me is of all six of them the one who has some obvious elite level Quarterback play moments on his film is Maye. When he is good it is "you could be a top 5 QB in the league tomorrow" good. He might a bit Josh Allen like in that it might be year 3 before that is what you get (not comparing to Josh otherwise just in terms of development arc - he is more Herbert than Allen IMO). But if he reaches his ceiling Maye can be elite.

I don't push Quarterbacks up the board. I grade them the way I grade other premium positions. I think they all go round 1 or early round 2. But that doesn't mean they are all worth that.