GunnerBill

I don't think anyone is denying the problems on defense, particularly against Kansas City in playoff games. And I certainly don't think it is magically just going to work out. But we need to be really clear headed in trying to analyse what the issues are. Is it system? Is it adjustments? Is it play calling? Is it talent? If it's a combination of each where are the easiest fixes. I have said all year I think this year is slightly different to the losses in 2020 and 2021 when the Bills actually had good defenses that then got shredded by the Chiefs. And it is a bit different to last year in the sense that the Bills were broadly healthy (I know Benford went out early but tbh the die was already somewhat cast in that first half). This year the Bills defense has not been good. The third down defense was 29th in the league. I like 3rd down as a true test of a defense. Both yards and points can be influenced by offense, they can be influenced by special teams. 3rd down defense just measures your D against their O when it matters most. And in that regard the Bills were bad in 2024. It has to get better. So then you get to why. For me: 1. This was the least talented defense the Bills have fielded since at least 2017 - they need a talent upgrade at multiple spots: free safety, outside corner (Douglas sucked this year and is a FA anyway), edge rusher, 1 tech. 2. They need Bobby Babich to learn and grow. I like him in terms of his approach, he speaks very well, I know he is highly thought of in the building for his energy and coaching abilities but in his first year as the coordinator I found his gameplans and play calling to be impulsive, impatient and at times downright naïve. Specifically in terms of getting past the Chiefs and winning a Superbowl they need to find that consistent game wrecker. The majority of Superbowl winning teams have one. They need someone to make that one critical play. They were already playing that way before the Benford injury. Obviously Benford to Elam is, as Tony Romo said, one of the biggest downgrades you can have. So might he have made a play on the countless downs that Elam was picked on? Sure. But in terms of their plan I'm not sure it affected it much.

2nd half was punt, punt, touchdown, field goal, end of game. 1st half was terrible, no question. And 1st half was them trying to be someone they are not with a ton of man coverage.

Possibly. But they tried things outside of their normal scheme first half on Sunday and they were shredded. When they got back to more of their core scheme 2nd half they improved.

The Bills have got to beat what is potentially one game away from being the greatest dynasty in the history of the sport. Take them away the Bills might already have won with their scheme. I only go back to 02, and really to 06 as a committed every week NFL watcher, so I can't tell you a ton first hand about schemes before that.

I think we did too much trying to break tendencies the first half and it resulted in a 21-10 hole. The Bills were better 2nd half because they played Buffalo Bills football. They came up short. They overall didn't coach it well enough and didn't execute it well enough. I don't believe that 4th down was "doomed from the start." I believe Spags won the down, but doomed from the start? No.

So I want an upgrade too but honestly I have seen nothing to suggest just playing through rough patches will improve Cole Bishop. He still looks totally lost in coverage. Go look at the big pass play to JuJu first drive nothing particularly clever scheme wise but Bishop completelty misplays his assignment and its a big play. I liked the Bishop pick at the time but I am worried about it right now. Hopefully a full offseason (I don't forget he missed the entire camp) and the game slowing down for him a bit sparks something. Because he still looks out of place on the field to me. They should let Hamlin walk and sign a mid range vet FA who is a natural free safety IMO. Then let Rapp and Bishop compete to play as the box safety.

Their talent was superior, for sure. There were at least 4 potential HoFers on that defense. But you asked about scheme. The Bills need a talent upgrade more than they need a new scheme.

This is extremely similar to the scheme Seattle won a Superbowl with. They were a low blitz, rush 4, play zone behind and a high use of nickel personnel team. No two defenses are exactly the same but that D is the closest in terms of its core principles.

Ha. I am not a massive fan of comps. But no I don't think he is a Mike Evans type. The guy he reminds me of more with ball in hand is actually someone like Deebo Samuel. His all round game isn't Deebo, just to be clear. But that toughness to bring down in the open field with the ball in hand he does. There are not a ton of guys he can be comped to.

He was not a great contested catch guy in college. I did try and tell people this. He was okay at it but he was not dominant in contested catch situations. His strength is as a runner after the catch. I know you don't think that to look at him but I watched hours of Keon tape last January and February. He is a big slot, catch and run guy.

Anyone have the numbers on whether it has increased #1 seed participation in the Superbowl? My instinct is it hasn't.... Ravens were the #1 last year; Lions #1 in NFC this year; Titans lost in the divisional as the #1 seed as well I think. They couldn't go to the right on Sunday cos Torrence was being blown up. They showed a few of them during breaks on UK TV and Suh was literally laughing uncontrollably at Torrence trying to hold his ground on those plays. I was for the sneaks until that last one. When they went on the 4th and inches that Josh got by diving over I said in the game thread "they have to go for this one and then they have to put the sneak away" and a few minutes later on 4th and a long 1 they should have done something other than sneak it.

A couple have mentioned that game, so I'll take it. It doesn't stand out in my mind, but the offense is where I was focussed that day.

Better, but not about the defeat. Just because it's day 2 the sick, gutted feeling subsides. I feel like having had the ball at the end and coming up short makes the problem more fixable. If the 2nd half had looked like the first I'd feel worse. What I do feel bad about is the Superbowl. I will watch but ugh.... can't ever remember looking forward to one less. A Chief threepeat or the ***** despisable Eagles. I'll cheer for the refs.

It's a bad call because Coleman is useless at fades because he gives up leverage so easily. But your call sheet shrinks massively when you are down to "only things Keon Coleman can execute" because slants by the goalline are pretty high risk too.

I can get the Bills to $40/45m in space pretty quickly with the only cuts being Daquan Jones and Von Miller. There are a few obvious restructures - the likes of Knox, Milano, Oliver, Samuel and an extension for Rousseau. If you did a Josh Allen extension that is gonna free up more space too - possibly up to $20m worth. That is before Benford, Cook and Bernard potential extension decisions.

No we didn't. There were differences but there was a lot of carry over, especially from what they were doing with Brady in the 2nd half of last season. Shakir's usage was very similar. If you just compare the Brady games 2023 to 2024 the drop off is even more precipitous. He was targeted 3.5 times per game in the Brady portion of 2023 and averaged 15.1 yards per target in the Brady games of 2023. He was targeted 6.25 times per game in 2024 and averaged 8.2 yards per target. Presuming that if you increase targets by a third again would result in a proportionate rise in production is really hard to justify based on those numbers. Now don't get me wrong, increased targets will result in increased numbers, but I don't think there is evidence to support the assumption that it will be proportionate. It was not close to proportionate with the previous doubling of targets.

I don't think any coach in NFL history had this resume and was fired. The only guy (certainly modern era) who I can find who left after two Championship game losses without making a Superbowl with that team and without then suffering losing seasons that precipitated a firing is Schotty in Cleveland - who lost the '86 and '87 AFCCGs to Denver then went out in the wildcard in '88 to Houston and resigned after a disagreement with Art Model about playcalling. It isn't ridiculous. His targets more than doubled from 2023 to 2024 (45 to 100) but his production only went up 34%. Because of the way we use him, the way he has to be used, it is the law of diminishing returns. Giving him another 50 targets wouldn't result in another third of production.

I don't know that.

I think he made a TFL in game down by the goalline. One of those middle run games.... Titans maybe?

Yea I make the same criticism of Joe as I made of Ben Johnson the week before. Cook 13 carries for 85 yards at 6.5 a pop. He didn't get enough carries. The one drive where we really committed to him we went down the field on the Chiefs and they could not stop us. They came out trying to play action early and break tendency by being more pass heavy and the offense never got into a rhythm. It was a mistake. They should have got Cook going much sooner

Did he? Which games?

I don't agree the play was doomed from the start. I do agee that Torrence clearly screwed the pooch whatever the line adjustment was.

Well we don't run the "big nickel" for the most part. We run standard nickel. And the Ravens didn't destroy us with it when they played the Bills starters. They destroyed Nicholas Morrow and Baylon Spector but then I think Southwest Texas State probably would destroy that pair. Which isn't to say we don't need personnel upgrades on D, we do. But the nickel is not the problem.

On Solomon the only two games he got serious play in down the stretch were the Jets where he wasn't great admittedly and the Patriots where he was the best Bill on the field and had seven Quarterback pressures. I still have a lot of hope for him. Carter I don't know. I was never that enamoured with his play early in the year to be honest and the Bills chose to have Phillips and Jefferson up over him later. I didn't love the pick and remain concerned.

They did expect a blitz on the final play, but they misread it at the line and protected from the opposite side to where the blitz came. Joe brady had a play that was designed to attack where they thought the blitz was coming but it came the other way and they ended up in scramble mode.